Anticipating influential factors on suicide outcomes through machine learning techniques: Insights from a suicide registration program in western Iran

IF 3.8 4区 医学 Q1 PSYCHIATRY Asian journal of psychiatry Pub Date : 2024-07-28 DOI:10.1016/j.ajp.2024.104183
Nasrin Matinnia , Behnaz Alafchi , Arya Haddadi , Ali Ghaleiha , Hasan Davari , Manochehr Karami , Zahra Taslimi , Mohammad Reza Afkhami , Saeid Yazdi-Ravandi
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Abstract

Suicide is a global public health concern, with increasing rates observed in various regions, including Iran. This study focuses on the province of Hamadan, Iran, where suicide rates have been on the rise. The research aims to predict factors influencing suicide outcomes by leveraging machine learning techniques on the Hamadan Suicide Registry Program data collected from 2016 to 2017. The study employs Naïve Bayes and Random Forest algorithms, comparing their performance to logistic regression. Results highlight the superiority of the Random Forest model. Based on the variable importance and multiple logistic regression analyses, the most important determinants of suicide outcomes were identified as suicide method, age, and timing of attempts, income, and motivation. The findings emphasize the cultural context's impact on suicide methods and underscore the importance of tailoring prevention programs to address specific risk factors, especially for older individuals. This study contributes valuable insights for suicide prevention efforts in the region, advocating for context-specific interventions and further research to refine predictive models and develop targeted prevention strategies.

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通过机器学习技术预测自杀结果的影响因素:伊朗西部自杀登记项目的启示。
自杀是一个全球性的公共健康问题,在包括伊朗在内的各个地区,自杀率都在不断上升。本研究重点关注自杀率呈上升趋势的伊朗哈马丹省。研究旨在利用机器学习技术,对 2016 年至 2017 年收集的哈马丹自杀登记计划数据进行分析,从而预测影响自杀结果的因素。研究采用了奈伊夫贝叶斯和随机森林算法,并将其性能与逻辑回归进行了比较。结果凸显了随机森林模型的优越性。根据变量重要性和多元逻辑回归分析,自杀结果的最重要决定因素被确定为自杀方式、年龄、自杀未遂时间、收入和动机。研究结果强调了文化背景对自杀方式的影响,并强调了针对特定风险因素(尤其是老年人的风险因素)定制预防计划的重要性。这项研究为该地区的自杀预防工作提供了宝贵的见解,提倡针对具体情况采取干预措施,并进一步开展研究,以完善预测模型和制定有针对性的预防策略。
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来源期刊
Asian journal of psychiatry
Asian journal of psychiatry Medicine-Psychiatry and Mental Health
CiteScore
12.70
自引率
5.30%
发文量
297
审稿时长
35 days
期刊介绍: The Asian Journal of Psychiatry serves as a comprehensive resource for psychiatrists, mental health clinicians, neurologists, physicians, mental health students, and policymakers. Its goal is to facilitate the exchange of research findings and clinical practices between Asia and the global community. The journal focuses on psychiatric research relevant to Asia, covering preclinical, clinical, service system, and policy development topics. It also highlights the socio-cultural diversity of the region in relation to mental health.
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