Measuring misclassification and sample bias in passive surveillance systems: Improving prevalence estimates of critical congenital heart defects in state-based passive surveillance systems
Chris Barnett, James Christiansen, Monica Mills, Jordyn Lord, Jared Parrish
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Objectives
We assessed reporting misclassification for 12 critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs) identified through administrative diagnosis codes within a passive surveillance system. We measured the effect of misclassification on prevalence estimation. Lastly, we investigated a sample-based review strategy to estimate surveillance misclassification resulting from administrative diagnosis codes for case detection.
Methods
We received 419 reports of CCHDs between 2007 and 2018; 414 were clinically reviewed. We calculated confirmation probabilities to assess misclassification and adjust prevalence estimates. Random samples of reported cases were taken at proportions between 20% and 90% for each condition to assess sample bias. Sampling was repeated 1000 times to measure sample-estimate variability.
Results
Misclassification ranged from a low of 19% (n = 4/21) to a high of 84% (n = 21/25). Unconfirmed prevalence rates ranged between one and six cases per 10,000 live births, with some conditions significantly higher than national estimates. However, confirmed rates were either lower or comparable to national estimates.
Conclusion
Passive birth defect surveillance programs that rely on administrative diagnosis codes for case identification of CCHDs are subject to misclassification that bias prevalence estimates. We showed that a sample-based review could improve the prevalence estimates of 12 cardiovascular conditions relative to their unconfirmed prevalence rates.
期刊介绍:
The journal Birth Defects Research publishes original research and reviews in areas related to the etiology of adverse developmental and reproductive outcome. In particular the journal is devoted to the publication of original scientific research that contributes to the understanding of the biology of embryonic development and the prenatal causative factors and mechanisms leading to adverse pregnancy outcomes, namely structural and functional birth defects, pregnancy loss, postnatal functional defects in the human population, and to the identification of prenatal factors and biological mechanisms that reduce these risks.
Adverse reproductive and developmental outcomes may have genetic, environmental, nutritional or epigenetic causes. Accordingly, the journal Birth Defects Research takes an integrated, multidisciplinary approach in its organization and publication strategy. The journal Birth Defects Research contains separate sections for clinical and molecular teratology, developmental and reproductive toxicology, and reviews in developmental biology to acknowledge and accommodate the integrative nature of research in this field. Each section has a dedicated editor who is a leader in his/her field and who has full editorial authority in his/her area.