Innovative versus traditional statistical methods in hydropluviometric: a detailed analysis of trends in the Wadi Mina Basin (Northwest of Algeria)

Abstract

Algeria, a semi-arid Mediterranean country, is distinguished by a more marked interannual variability in solid inputs compared to liquid inputs. This study aimed to comprehensively analyze hydrometeorological variables, such as rainfall, suspended sediment load, and flood flows in the Wadi Mina basin (6048 km²), using both traditional and advanced statistical techniques. These techniques included the MK trend tests MMK, and TFPWMK, as well as newer methods such as ITA and IPTA. To identify breakpoints, the CUSUM test and the SQ-MK test were used. The study was based on monthly data covering 40 years of rainfall (1970–2010) and 41 years of data on flood flows and suspended sediment load (1969–2010). The results indicated stable annual rainfall across the stations, suggesting a consistent rainfall regime over time. However, notable variability in sediment loads and flood flows was observed, with stations like Ain Hamara, Sidi Aek Djilali, and Wadi El Abtal displaying marked decreases in annual sediment loads, hinting at effective erosion control or natural attenuation of erosive processes. In contrast, a significant increase in flood events was recorded at Ain Hamara, attributed to climatic fluctuations or land use changes affecting runoff. Monthly analyses further demonstrated the enhanced sensitivity of ITA and IPTA over traditional methods, effectively uncovering subtle trends not detected by MK, MMK, and TFPWMK. For example, increasing rainfall trends during winter at Takhmert station and significant sediment transport patterns at Ain Hamara during colder months suggested dynamic seasonal hydrological behaviors. Additionally, critical insights into abrupt changes were revealed through CUSUM and SQ-MK tests, such as a pivotal shift in flood regimes at Takhmert in 2003 and a critical change in rainfall patterns at Ain Hamara in 2008, necessitating adjustments in water management and agricultural practices.