On the variability of convective available potential energy in the Mediterranean Region for the 83-year period 1940–2022; signals of climate emergency

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Theoretical and Applied Climatology Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-05183-3
Christos J. Lolis
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Abstract

Some aspects of the variability of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) in the Mediterranean region are examined for the 83-year period 1940–2022 with the use of the daily ERA5 database. The mean monthly patterns, the linear trends of monthly time series and the inter-annual variations of the frequency of extreme CAPE cases are studied, while a classification of spatially extended extreme CAPE events is performed with the combined use of Factor Analysis and k-means Cluster Analysis. According to the results, the spatial distribution of CAPE presents a remarkable seasonal variability due to the strong seasonality of other relevant climatic variables. Also, there is a statistically significant increase of the mean monthly CAPE in most parts of the Mediterranean region in all seasons except spring. This increase appears also in the frequency of extreme cases and in the frequency of the summer spatially extended extreme events. The above positive trends are in line with other signals of the ongoing climate change in the Mediterranean region.

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论 1940-2022 年 83 年间地中海地区对流可用势能的变化;气候紧急情况的信号
利用每日ERA5数据库,研究了1940-2022年83年间地中海地区对流可用势能(CAPE)变化的某些方面。研究了月平均模式、月时间序列的线性趋势和极端 CAPE 案例频率的年际变化,并结合使用因子分析和 k-means 聚类分析对空间扩展的极端 CAPE 事件进行了分类。研究结果表明,由于其他相关气候变量具有很强的季节性,CAPE 的空间分布呈现出显著的季节性变化。此外,除春季外,地中海地区大部分地区的月平均 CAPE 在所有季节都有显著的统计增长。这种增加也出现在极端情况的频率和夏季空间扩展极端事件的频率上。上述积极趋势与地中海地区正在发生的气候变化的其他信号是一致的。
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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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