Bayesian Multivariate Spatial Modelling of Risky Sexual Behaviour Among Young People in Nigeria

Abstract

Adverse sexual and reproductive health outcomes resulting from risky sexual behaviours (RSB) among young adults disproportionately affect them and contribute to an increased burden of sexually transmitted diseases. Existing research in sub-Saharan Africa, has yielded contrasting findings on the factors associated with the sexual behaviour of young people. This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the geographical distribution and socio-demographic determinants of RSB among young people in Nigeria, focusing on three primary outcomes: unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, and early sexual debut. This study used cross-sectional data from the 2018 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey on young adults aged 15–24 years. Descriptive and inferential statistics, including Bayesian multivariate shared component spatial modelling were used to assess geographical and socio-demographic factors influencing RSB. Males in the North-West region exhibited a high prevalence of unprotected sex and early sexual debut while unprotected sex was more prevalent among females in the South–South region. Furthermore, individuals in the South-South and Central regions consistently showed a higher likelihood of engaging in all three indicators of RSB. Individuals who were employed as well as rural residents had an increased risk of early sexual debut and multiple sexual partners. Furthermore, mobile phone and internet access were found to impact RSB. These findings offer insights into the geographic distribution and socio-demographic determinants of RSB among young people, highlighting the need for tailored interventions. These insights can inform the development of targeted interventions, education programs, and policies to reduce the prevalence of RSB.