Towards Effective Long-Term Wind Power Forecasting: A Deep Conditional Generative Spatio-Temporal Approach

Abstract

Accurately forecasting long-term future wind power is critical to achieve safe power grid integration. This problem is quite challenging due to wind power's high volatility and randomness. In this paper, we propose a novel time series forecasting method, namely Deep Conditional Generative Spatio-Temporal model (DCGST), and its high accuracy is achieved by tackling two critical issues simultaneously: a proper handling of the non-stationarity of multiple wind power time series, and a fine-grained modeling of their complicated yet dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies. Specifically, we first formally define the Spatio-Temporal Concept Drift (STCD) problem of wind power, and then we propose a novel deep conditional generative model to learn probabilistic distributions of future wind power values under STCD. Three different tailored neural networks are designed for distributions parameterization, including a graph-based prior network, an attention-based recognition network, and a stochastic seq2seq-based generation network. They are able to encode the dynamic spatio-temporal dependencies of multiple wind power time series and infer one-to-many mappings for future wind power generation. Compared to existing methods, DCGST can learn better spatio-temporal representations of wind power data and learn better uncertainties of data distribution to generate future values. Comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets including the largest public turbine-level wind power dataset verify the effectiveness, efficiency, generality and scalability of our method.