Microbiological risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in popular hot dishes eaten by plant-based diet consumers in France

IF 3 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Microbial Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI:10.1016/j.mran.2024.100320
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Abstract

There is a current trend towards plant-based diets in Western countries. Since changes in the diet imply possible changes in exposure to foodborne pathogens, there is an increasing need to assess the microbiological risks associated with these diets. This study aims to assess microbiological risks for French adults associated with Bacillus cereus group III and group IV in hot, homemade cereal- and lentil-based dishes. A probabilistic retail-to-fork risk assessment model was developed considering cooking, cooling at ambient temperature, and storage under chilled conditions. Data came from a representative national survey, public database and literature. The model was developed in R, and uncertainty and variability were separated using second-order Monte Carlo simulations. Not all consumers have the same storage and cooling practices, so the results were expressed by probabilistic distributions built by specific storage time. The mean concentration of Bacillus cereus in portions at the time of consumption after 72 h of storage was 1.2 log CFU.g−1 for cereal-based dishes and 3.4 log CFU.g−1 for lentil-based dishes. After 72 h of storage under chilled conditions, the risk per portion, defined as the probability of contamination over 5 log CFU.g−1, was 0 (95 % CI: 0 - 0) for cereal-based dishes and 7.95 × 10−4 (95 % CI: 5.55 × 10−4 - 1.12 × 10−3) for lentils-based dishes. However, if cooling time at room temperature reached 24 h, the risk for cereal- and lentil-based dishes increased to 2.39 × 10−3 (95 % CI: 1.15 × 10−3 - 4.90 × 10−3) and 4.66 × 10−1 (95 % CI: 3.16 × 10−1 - 6.07 × 10−1), respectively. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the initial prevalence and level of contamination were key factors in limiting the risk, ranking before cooling time or refrigeration conditions. Besides, the scenario analysis revealed an influence of consumer behaviour regarding cooling and storage time on the risk per portion. The environmental trend towards plant-forward diets, combined with the emerging no-food waste and batch cooking practices in France, will likely favour new consumption patterns and increase the risk associated with Bacillus cereus. Our model will help quantify this extra burden.

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法国植物性饮食消费者常吃的热菜中蜡样芽孢杆菌的微生物风险评估
目前,西方国家的饮食趋势是以植物性食物为主。由于饮食习惯的改变意味着接触食源性病原体的机会可能发生变化,因此越来越有必要评估与这些饮食习惯相关的微生物风险。本研究旨在评估法国成年人在热的自制谷物和扁豆菜肴中摄入第 III 组和第 IV 组微生物的风险。考虑到烹饪、在环境温度下冷却和在冷藏条件下储存,研究人员开发了一个从零售到餐桌的概率风险评估模型。数据来自具有代表性的全国调查、公共数据库和文献。该模型使用 R 语言开发,并通过二阶蒙特卡罗模拟分离了不确定性和可变性。并非所有消费者都有相同的贮藏和冷却方法,因此结果用特定贮藏时间的概率分布来表示。贮藏 72 小时后,食用时谷物类菜肴中的平均浓度为 1.2 log CFU.,扁豆类菜肴中的平均浓度为 3.4 log CFU.。在冷藏条件下贮存 72 小时后,谷物类和扁豆类菜肴每份的污染风险分别为 0(95 % CI:0 - 0)和 7.95 × 10(95 % CI:5.55 × 10 - 1.12 × 10)。但是,如果室温冷却时间达到 24 小时,谷类和扁豆类菜肴的风险分别增加到 2.39 × 10(95 % CI:1.15 × 10 - 4.90 × 10)和 4.66 × 10(95 % CI:3.16 × 10 - 6.07 × 10)。敏感性分析表明,初始污染率和污染程度是限制风险的关键因素,排在冷却时间或冷藏条件之前。此外,情景分析表明,消费者在冷却和储存时间方面的行为对每份食品的风险有影响。植物性饮食的环保趋势,加上法国新出现的不浪费食物和分批烹饪的做法,很可能会促进新的消费模式,增加与......相关的风险。我们的模型将有助于量化这种额外负担。
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来源期刊
Microbial Risk Analysis
Microbial Risk Analysis Medicine-Microbiology (medical)
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
7.10%
发文量
28
审稿时长
52 days
期刊介绍: The journal Microbial Risk Analysis accepts articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. Manuscripts should at least cover any of the components of risk assessment (risk characterization, exposure assessment, etc.), risk management and/or risk communication in any microbiology field (clinical, environmental, food, veterinary, etc.). This journal also accepts article dealing with predictive microbiology, quantitative microbial ecology, mathematical modeling, risk studies applied to microbial ecology, quantitative microbiology for epidemiological studies, statistical methods applied to microbiology, and laws and regulatory policies aimed at lessening the risk of microbial hazards. Work focusing on risk studies of viruses, parasites, microbial toxins, antimicrobial resistant organisms, genetically modified organisms (GMOs), and recombinant DNA products are also acceptable.
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