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Genomic, pangenomic, metagenomic and trancriptomics perspectives to enhance microbial modeling and quantitative risk assessment in food environments 从基因组学、泛基因组学、宏基因组学和转录组学的角度来增强食物环境中的微生物建模和定量风险评估
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100364
Wilson José Fernandes Lemos Junior , Larissa P Margalho , Claudio Cipolat-Gotet , Anderson S. Sant'Ana
Recent advances in genomics, pangenomics, transcriptomics, and metatranscriptomics have expanded the resolution with which microbial traits relevant to food safety can be described. These approaches complement classical predictive models, which traditionally rely on population-averaged parameters and may overlook the heterogeneity that exists among strains and microbial communities. Omics data help identify genetic, functional, and regulatory features that underpin differences in stress tolerance, growth potential, and virulence, offering a more precise basis for hazard identification and exposure assessment. Genomic and pangenomic analyses clarify how core and accessory gene pools shape strain-level behavior, while transcriptomic studies reveal active pathways during acid, cold, or osmotic challenges. Metatranscriptomics extends this insight to complex communities, capturing how dominant and satellite members contribute to ecosystem function under food-relevant conditions. Incorporating these datasets into predictive microbiology and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) supports more realistic estimates of growth, survival, and persistence, reducing uncertainty in hazard characterization. Evidence shows that many food-associated strains are hypovirulent or slow-growing, indicating that risk may be overestimated when genetic heterogeneity is not considered. Although molecular data do not directly prescribe mitigation strategies, they support risk management by identifying which subpopulations merit targeted interventions, clarifying which process parameters influence persistence, and refining prioritization decisions. Our work discusses how omics tools align with primary, secondary, and tertiary predictive models and examines the complementarity between traditional decision-making frameworks and AI-based methods. Emphasis is also placed on sustainability, as omics-informed modeling enables more efficient in silico assessments and reduces dependence on resource-intensive challenge testing. Together, these developments strengthen the connection between risk assessment and risk management, supporting more proportionate and informed food safety decisions.
基因组学、泛基因组学、转录组学和超转录组学的最新进展扩大了与食品安全相关的微生物性状的描述分辨率。这些方法补充了传统的预测模型,传统的预测模型依赖于种群平均参数,可能忽略了菌株和微生物群落之间存在的异质性。组学数据有助于确定遗传、功能和调控特征,这些特征支撑着胁迫耐受性、生长潜力和毒力的差异,为危害识别和暴露评估提供了更精确的基础。基因组学和泛基因组学分析阐明了核心和辅助基因库如何塑造菌株水平的行为,而转录组学研究揭示了在酸、冷或渗透挑战下的活性途径。亚转录组学将这种见解扩展到复杂的群落,捕捉主导和卫星成员如何在与食物相关的条件下对生态系统功能做出贡献。将这些数据集纳入预测微生物学和定量微生物风险评估(QMRA),支持对生长、生存和持久性进行更现实的估计,减少了危害表征的不确定性。有证据表明,许多与食物有关的菌株毒性较低或生长缓慢,这表明,如果不考虑遗传异质性,风险可能被高估。虽然分子数据不能直接规定缓解策略,但它们通过确定哪些亚群值得进行有针对性的干预、澄清哪些过程参数影响持久性以及改进优先级决策来支持风险管理。我们的工作讨论了组学工具如何与一级、二级和三级预测模型保持一致,并检查了传统决策框架和基于人工智能的方法之间的互补性。重点还放在可持续性上,因为基于组学的建模能够更有效地进行计算机评估,并减少对资源密集型挑战测试的依赖。总之,这些发展加强了风险评估和风险管理之间的联系,支持更适当和知情的食品安全决策。
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引用次数: 0
Public awareness and risk-related practices regarding Hydatid Disease in Türkiye: a cross-sectional survey 日本公众对包虫病的认识和风险相关做法:一项横断面调查
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100369
Sehriban Yurekturk , Canan Demir , Abdurrahman Ekici

Introduction

This study aimed to evaluate public awareness, knowledge, and risk-related practices regarding hydatid disease among adults in Türkiye.

Method

This cross-sectional survey included 1135 individuals aged ≥18 years residing in Türkiye. This internet-based cross-sectional study was conducted between February and May 2025. Data were collected using an online questionnaire distributed via social media platforms. Knowledge levels, sources of information, and risk-related practices were assessed. Associations between sociodemographic variables and knowledge levels were analyzed using appropriate statistical tests.

Results

Among the participants, 56.1% were unaware of the etiological agent of hydatid disease, and only 33.7% correctly identified parasites as the cause. Knowledge regarding transmission routes was limited, with only 24.2% recognizing the role of infected dogs. Risk-related practices were common; 42.7% reported home slaughtering, while 22.5% disposed of infected organs in household waste and 32.4% buried them. Significant associations were observed between occupational groups and knowledge levels concerning disease etiology and transmission, with students demonstrating higher awareness compared to other occupational groups (p = 0.001).

Conclusion

This study reveals that the level of knowledge and awareness regarding hydatid cyst disease in Turkish society is insufficient and that high-risk practices are widespread. These findings indicate the existence of a significant public health problem that hinders the control and prevention of the disease..
本研究旨在评估泰国成年人对包虫病的公众意识、知识和风险相关做法。方法横断面调查包括1135名年龄≥18岁的居住在挪威的个体。这项基于互联网的横断面研究于2025年2月至5月进行。数据是通过社交媒体平台分发的在线问卷收集的。评估了知识水平、信息来源和与风险相关的实践。使用适当的统计检验分析社会人口变量与知识水平之间的关联。结果56.1%的调查对象不清楚包虫病的病原,只有33.7%的调查对象能正确识别包虫病的病原。关于传播途径的知识有限,只有24.2%的人认识到受感染狗的作用。与风险相关的做法很常见;42.7%的人报告家庭屠宰,22.5%的人将感染的器官作为生活垃圾处理,32.4%的人将其掩埋。职业群体与疾病病因学和传播知识水平之间存在显著关联,与其他职业群体相比,学生表现出更高的认知(p = 0.001)。结论本研究揭示了土耳其社会对包虫病的认识和意识水平不足,高危行为普遍存在。这些发现表明存在一个严重的公共卫生问题,它阻碍了疾病的控制和预防。
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引用次数: 0
Monthly incidence prediction of foodborne diseases: case study in Nanning City of China 南宁市食源性疾病月发病率预测研究
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100368
Peng Li , Liting Cen , Siyan Li , Jing Zhang , Qi Li , Xiangzhi Li , Hui Li

Objective

To construct an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) multiplicative seasonal model for predicting the monthly incidence of foodborne diseases in Nanning City and provide a scientific basis for disease prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Monthly incidence data of foodborne diseases in Nanning City from January 2013 to December 2022 were used to develop an ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model with SPSS 23.0 software. The optimal model was selected through sequence stationarization, model identification, order determination, parameter estimation, and diagnostic checking. The model was validated using data from January to December 2023 (held-out set) and then used to forecast the monthly incidence for 2024–2025.

Results

The monthly incidence exhibited significant seasonal fluctuations. The optimal model was identified as ARIMA(1,0,0) × (0,1,1)12, The optimal model was selected based on a combination of a high stationary R² (0.673), adherence to the principle of parsimony, and achieving the lowest Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC = 0.178) among candidate models. The model residuals passed the white noise test (Ljung-Box Q = 22.079, P = 0.141). The model’s out-of-sample performance on the 2023 validation set was assessed, yielding a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 2.65 cases per 100,000 population and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 29.7%. Predictions for 2024–2025 suggest a stable incidence level with seasonal peaks in the summer and autumn months, and no indication of a large-scale outbreak beyond historical patterns.

Conclusion

The ARIMA multiplicative seasonal model can capture the seasonal pattern of foodborne disease incidence in Nanning City. While short-term prediction accuracy is acceptable, the model's performance can be affected by anomalous data points. It serves as a useful tool for short-term early warning and seasonal resource planning in public health.
目的构建南宁市食源性疾病月发病率自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)乘法季节预测模型,为疾病防控提供科学依据。方法利用2013年1月至2022年12月南宁市食源性疾病的月度发病数据,运用SPSS 23.0软件建立ARIMA乘法季节模型。通过序列平稳化、模型辨识、阶数确定、参数估计、诊断检查等步骤,优选出最优模型。该模型使用2023年1月至12月(hold out set)的数据进行验证,然后用于预测2024-2025年的月发病率。结果月发病率有明显的季节波动。将最优模型确定为ARIMA(1,0,0) ×(0,1,1)12,根据高平稳性R²(0.673)、遵守简约原则、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC = 0.178)在候选模型中达到最低的组合选择最优模型。模型残差通过白噪声检验(Ljung-Box Q = 22.079, P = 0.141)。该模型在2023年验证集上的样本外性能进行了评估,其均方根误差(RMSE)为每10万人口2.65例,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为29.7%。对2024-2025年的预测表明,发病率水平稳定,夏季和秋季为季节性高峰,没有迹象表明会出现超出历史模式的大规模暴发。结论ARIMA乘法季节模型能较好地反映南宁市食源性疾病发病的季节规律。虽然短期预测精度是可以接受的,但模型的性能会受到异常数据点的影响。它是公共卫生领域短期预警和季节性资源规划的有用工具。
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引用次数: 0
Potential pandemic: Biothermodynamic analysis of the yellow fever virus-host interaction 潜在的大流行:黄热病病毒与宿主相互作用的生物热力学分析
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100366
Marko E. Popović , Maja Stevanović , Stefan Panić
The yellow fever virus can infect several kinds of host cells in the human organism. However, liver damage dominates during yellow fever, due to lysis of hepatocytes and accumulation of virus particles inside them. Thermodynamic driving force for multiplication of viruses provides the answer to why the liver is among the most severely damaged organs during yellow fever, while less damage occurs in kidneys, spleen and bone marrow. The physicochemical perspective on pathogenesis indicates the most thermodynamically and kinetically favorable host cells for multiplication. The mechanistic model developed in this way relates the driving force as the fundamental physical force and pathogenesis as a biological phenomenon.
黄热病病毒可以感染人体几种宿主细胞。然而,在黄热病期间,由于肝细胞的溶解和病毒颗粒在肝细胞内的积累,肝损伤占主导地位。病毒增殖的热力学驱动力提供了为什么肝脏是黄热病期间受损最严重的器官之一,而肾脏、脾脏和骨髓受损较小的答案。物理化学角度的发病机制指出了最有利于增殖的热动力学和动力学宿主细胞。以这种方式建立的机制模型将驱动力作为基本的物理力量和发病机制作为一种生物现象联系起来。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing vaccination strategies for mpox control in endemic areas: Modeling insights from the Democratic Republic of Congo 在流行地区优化m痘控制的疫苗接种策略:来自刚果民主共和国的建模见解
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100363
Aakash Pandey , Ian Spicknall , Andrea M. McCollum , Christine M. Hughes , Beatrice Nguete , Toutou Likafi , Robert Shongo Lushima , Placide Mbala-Kingebeni , Joelle Kabamba , Didine Kaba , Yoshinori Nakazawa
The global mpox outbreak of 2022, caused by the Clade IIb strain of monkeypox virus, underscored the potential of this virus to pose a significant public health threat on a global scale. The Democratic Republic of Congo is currently facing multiple outbreaks associated with Clade I. Effectively controlling localized community transmission within endemic areas through vaccination can reduce the likelihood of broader regional or even global outbreaks. Large-scale community vaccination in DRC is challenged by limited resources, including vaccine availability during early outbreaks in remote areas, whereas limited surveillance, contact tracing, and accessibility to remote locations can reduce the effectiveness of targeted ring vaccination. Furthermore, recent outbreaks in DRC have been driven by both sexual and non-sexual close contact transmissions. Here, we used an agent-based model with stochastic transmission within and between households to assess the effectiveness of ring vaccination for controlling localized community transmission in the presence of incomplete case reporting and delay in vaccination. We consider both nonsexual close contact and sexual transmission. We found that ring vaccination, even with 25–50 % reporting, is effective in reducing outbreak cluster sizes and the likelihood of large cluster sizes (>5 cases), particularly when implemented shortly after detection of initial cases. The effectiveness of ring vaccination reduces with the inclusion of sexual transmission. We show that outbreak size and the likelihood of large clusters are reduced when responding to every reported infection, even with 2–3 weeks of delay. Settings with strong surveillance systems characterized by high levels of reporting will have earlier case detection, enabling earlier response and improving the effectiveness of ring vaccination.
2022年猴痘病毒IIb枝系引起的全球猴痘疫情凸显了该病毒在全球范围内构成重大公共卫生威胁的潜力。刚果民主共和国目前正面临与第一进化体相关的多起疫情。通过接种疫苗有效控制流行地区的局部社区传播,可以减少更广泛的区域甚至全球疫情的可能性。刚果民主共和国的大规模社区疫苗接种受到资源有限的挑战,包括在偏远地区早期疫情期间疫苗供应有限,而有限的监测、接触者追踪和偏远地区的可及性可能会降低有针对性的环形疫苗接种的有效性。此外,最近在刚果民主共和国暴发的疫情是由性和非性密切接触传播引起的。在这里,我们使用了一个基于agent的家庭内部和家庭之间随机传播模型来评估在病例报告不完整和疫苗接种延迟的情况下,环形疫苗接种对控制局部社区传播的有效性。我们考虑非性亲密接触和性传播。我们发现,即使有25% - 50%的报告,环形疫苗接种也能有效减少疫情集群规模和大集群规模(5例)的可能性,特别是在发现初始病例后不久实施时。环形疫苗接种的有效性随着性传播的纳入而降低。我们表明,即使延迟2-3周,在对每一次报告的感染作出反应时,爆发规模和大集群的可能性也会降低。拥有以高报告率为特征的强大监测系统的环境将更早发现病例,从而能够更早作出反应并提高环形疫苗接种的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Climate-driven modeling of Japanese spotted fever, an emerging tick-borne disease 气候驱动的日本斑疹热模型,一种新出现的蜱传疾病
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100367
Hoang Thao Giang Nguyen, Kosuke Kamio, Do Tung Dac, J. Luis Espinoza
Japanese Spotted Fever (JSF), a tick-borne disease caused by Rickettsia japonica, has shown a sustained increase in incidence and geographic expansion across Japan over the past two decades. Using a 21-year (1999–2019) prefecture-level dataset, we examined associations between climatic conditions and JSF incidence and evaluated their predictive utility within machine learning frameworks. We developed Random Forest regression models incorporating prefecture identifiers, climatic variables, and a one-year lag of JSF cases to account for spatial heterogeneity and temporal autocorrelation. Models based solely on national-average climate variables exhibited poor predictive performance, indicating that climate alone does not explain temporal increases in JSF incidence. In contrast, spatially explicit models achieved substantially improved accuracy, and inclusion of lagged incidence yielded the strongest predictive gains (MSE = 37.03, R² = 0.76 for 2017–2019). Feature importance analyses identified prior-year cases as the dominant predictor, while temperature, sunshine hours, and snow-related variables contributed secondary explanatory signal. These findings suggest that climatic factors primarily define broad regional suitability for JSF, whereas short-term incidence dynamics are largely driven by spatially persistent and temporally autocorrelated processes. Climate-informed models may nonetheless support regional surveillance and risk stratification when combined with historical incidence and spatial context.
日本斑疹热(JSF)是一种由日本立克次体引起的蜱传疾病,在过去20年里,日本各地的发病率持续上升,地域范围也在扩大。使用21年(1999-2019)地级数据集,我们研究了气候条件与JSF发病率之间的关系,并评估了它们在机器学习框架内的预测效用。我们开发了随机森林回归模型,包括州标识符、气候变量和JSF案例的一年滞后,以解释空间异质性和时间自相关性。仅基于国家平均气候变量的模型表现出较差的预测性能,表明气候本身不能解释JSF发病率的时间增加。相比之下,空间显式模型的准确性大大提高,包含滞后发生率的预测收益最强(2017-2019年的MSE = 37.03, R²= 0.76)。特征重要性分析确定前一年的病例是主要的预测因子,而温度、日照时数和雪相关变量是次要的解释信号。这些发现表明,气候因素主要决定了JSF的广泛区域适用性,而短期发病率动态在很大程度上是由空间持久性和时间自相关过程驱动的。然而,当与历史发病率和空间背景相结合时,气候信息模型可能支持区域监测和风险分层。
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引用次数: 0
Next generation risk assessment: A proof of concept for the integration of genomic data on cold tolerance into quantitative microbial risk assessment for Campylobacter jejuni in poultry meat 下一代风险评估:将耐寒性基因组数据整合到禽肉中空肠弯曲杆菌的定量微生物风险评估的概念证明
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2026.100365
Eduardo de Freitas Costa , Andries A. Kampfraath , Dirkjan Schokker , Menno van der Voort , Roan Pijnacker , Clazien J. de Vos , Eric G. Evers , Alex Bossers , Jose L. Gonzales , Ewa Pacholewicz
Quantitative Microbiological Risk assessment (QMRA) models are essential tools for setting up mitigation strategies. Traditional QMRA modelling approaches do not account for the correlation between genetic traits and variability among pathogens, potentially leading to over- or underestimation of microbial exposure and associated risks. We aimed to integrate genomic data into QMRA to propagate bacterial strain variability and update the existing framework of QMRA, following a Next Generation Risk Assessment (NGRA) approach. We used a benchmark QMRA model describing the prevalence and concentration of Campylobacter jejuni on chicken in all stages from farm-to-fork, to model the risk of infection and illness related to consumption of chicken meat. We integrated extended the storage step, to account for genetic variability in cold inactivation by incorporating gene-level genomic data associated with cold tolerance, derived from literature and a large C. jejuni genomic dataset, into the traditional QMRA model by setting up cold inactivation curves from existing data to map the relationship between the number of cold tolerance genes and temperature-dependent inactivation. The predicted number of cases was 8822 human cases/year in the benchmark QMRA model. The contamination of meat with C. jejuni strains having lower cold tolerance genes can reduce the expected number of human campylobacteriosis cases up to 100%; on the other hand, higher number of cold tolerance genes resulted in an increase up to 335.8% on the expected number of cases. Although our results are based on simulations, we show a potential implementation of the genetic information into QMRA, linking risk estimates with whole-genome sequencing data. More research is needed to understand how genetic features shape phenotypical characteristics, which is one of the main uncertainties in the current NGRA model, and to further explore the implications for risk management.
定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)模型是制定缓解战略的重要工具。传统的QMRA建模方法没有考虑遗传性状和病原体变异性之间的相关性,可能导致高估或低估微生物暴露和相关风险。我们的目标是将基因组数据整合到QMRA中,以传播细菌菌株变异性并更新现有的QMRA框架,采用下一代风险评估(NGRA)方法。我们使用了一个基准QMRA模型,描述了从农场到餐桌的所有阶段鸡肉上空肠弯曲杆菌的患病率和浓度,以模拟与鸡肉消费相关的感染和疾病风险。为了解释冷失活的遗传变异性,我们整合了扩展存储步骤,通过将与耐寒性相关的基因水平基因组数据(来自文献和大型空肠C. jejuni基因组数据集)纳入传统的QMRA模型,通过从现有数据中建立冷失活曲线来绘制耐寒基因数量与温度依赖性失活之间的关系。在基准QMRA模型中,预测病例数为8822例/年。具有较低耐寒基因的空肠梭菌污染肉类可使人类弯曲杆菌病的预期病例数减少100%;另一方面,耐冷基因数量的增加导致预期病例数增加了335.8%。虽然我们的结果是基于模拟,但我们展示了将遗传信息应用于QMRA的潜在实现,将风险估计与全基因组测序数据联系起来。遗传特征是如何塑造表型特征的,这是当前NGRA模型的主要不确定性之一,需要进一步研究,并进一步探讨其对风险管理的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Salmonellosis risk assessment for comminuted turkey under different specificities of concentration-based and virulence-based final product standards 基于浓度和毒力的最终产品标准下不同特异性火鸡粉沙门氏菌病风险评估
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100359
Yiyi Li, Cecil Barnett-Neefs, Matthew J. Stasiewicz
Prevalence-based performance standards have guided Salmonella control in poultry industry, but concentration- and virulence-based final product standards could target the most risky contamination more specifically. We adapted our previous risk assessment for chicken parts to comminuted turkey to assess the risk in products implicated by different final product standards, incorporating assumptions from FSIS 2024 risk assessments. We simulated the attributable fraction of illnesses from products contaminated over three level thresholds (0.0031 CFU/g, 1 CFU/g, and 10 CFU/g) and/or containing a serotype in three lists (“Top 3 most prevalent higher-virulence serotypes”, “All higher-virulence serotypes”, and “Higher-virulence proportion of each serotype”). Results showed that 87 % of illnesses were attributed to the 0.56 % of products with Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g. Under more specific criteria of level “AND” serotype, 60 % of illnesses were attributed to the 0.14 % of products contaminated with Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g and one of the three most prevalent higher-virulence serotypes. Further, applying genomic-based clustering information, 75 % of illnesses were attributed to slightly more products (0.19 %) containing Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g and higher-virulence proportion of each serotype. Under the less specific standard, however, 99 % of illnesses were attributed to the 5.7 % of products containing Salmonella exceeding 10 CFU/g “OR” one of the higher-virulence serotypes. Our study demonstrated that most salmonellosis risk is concentrated in comminuted turkey products with high levels of higher-virulence contaminations. Importantly, more specifically targeting those products could efficiently reduce public health risk while minimizing products implicated.
以流行率为基础的性能标准指导了家禽业沙门氏菌的控制,但是以浓度和毒力为基础的最终产品标准可以更具体地针对最危险的污染。我们将之前对鸡肉部分的风险评估调整为火鸡粉,以评估不同最终产品标准所涉及的产品风险,并结合FSIS 2024风险评估的假设。我们模拟了污染产品超过三个水平阈值(0.0031 CFU/g、1 CFU/g和10 CFU/g)和/或含有三种血清型(“前3种最流行的高毒力血清型”、“所有高毒力血清型”和“每种血清型的高毒力比例”)的可归因疾病比例。结果表明,87%的疾病是由于0.56%的产品沙门氏菌含量超过10 CFU/g引起的。在更具体的“AND”水平血清型标准下,60%的疾病归因于0.14%的沙门氏菌污染产品超过10 CFU/g和三种最普遍的高毒力血清型之一。此外,应用基于基因组的聚类信息,75%的疾病归因于沙门氏菌含量超过10 CFU/g的产品略多(0.19%),每种血清型的毒力比例较高。然而,在不太具体的标准下,99%的疾病归因于5.7%的产品含有超过10 CFU/g的沙门氏菌“或”一种高毒力血清型。我们的研究表明,大多数沙门氏菌病风险集中在具有高毒力污染的粉状火鸡产品中。重要的是,更具体地针对这些产品可以有效地减少公共健康风险,同时最大限度地减少所涉产品。
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引用次数: 0
Development and implementation of a rapid risk assessment tool to enhance and standardise aquatic animal health risk management 制定和实施快速风险评估工具,以加强水生动物健康风险管理并使其标准化
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100362
Mickael Teixeira Alves , Mark Thrush , Edmund J. Peeler , Sophie Armitage , Debbie Murphy , Chantelle Hooper , John P. Bignell , Richard Hazelgrove , David Bass , Hannah J. Tidbury
Timely, comprehensive risk assessments for disease management are often challenging, particularly in the event of sudden epidemiological events, new threats or shifting drivers of disease expression. To better address emerging threats and justify control measures for existing diseases, a rapid risk assessment tool was developed to support strategic decision-making and effective aquatic animal health management. Based on international standards for risk analysis from the World Health Organisation and World Organisation for Animal Health, this tool aims to provide a systematic, transparent and repeatable risk assessment of aquatic animal diseases to advise on policy decision. Accessibility of the tool facilitates rapid gathering and evaluation of a wide range of information and data, in turn ensuring a flexible, dynamic and effective process to respond to rapid changes in knowledge or epidemiological situation. Informing on the amount of uncertainty at each step of the risk assessment, the tool directly supports risk communication by providing a clear, well-defined structure based on common risk methodology and terminology, and assists risk managers in understanding broader threats, including impacts on trade, wildlife and the environment. Applications of the tool to a wide range of epidemiological contexts, including novel domestic events, investigation of mortality events, data collation from expert elicitation, information dissemination and disease ranking for policy strategic prioritisation, provide valuable insights facilitating the provision and communication of risk-based advice to underpin aquatic disease management.
及时、全面的疾病管理风险评估往往具有挑战性,特别是在突发流行病学事件、新威胁或疾病表达驱动因素变化的情况下。为了更好地应对新出现的威胁并证明对现有疾病采取控制措施的合理性,开发了一种快速风险评估工具,以支持战略决策和有效的水生动物卫生管理。该工具以世界卫生组织和世界动物卫生组织的国际风险分析标准为基础,旨在对水生动物疾病进行系统、透明和可重复的风险评估,为决策提供建议。该工具的可获得性有助于快速收集和评估广泛的信息和数据,从而确保灵活、动态和有效的进程,以应对知识或流行病学情况的快速变化。该工具告知风险评估每一步的不确定性,通过提供基于通用风险方法和术语的清晰、定义良好的结构,直接支持风险沟通,并帮助风险管理者了解更广泛的威胁,包括对贸易、野生动物和环境的影响。将该工具应用于广泛的流行病学背景,包括新的国内事件、死亡事件调查、专家咨询的数据整理、信息传播和政策战略优先排序的疾病排名,提供了宝贵的见解,有助于提供和交流基于风险的咨询意见,以支持水生疾病管理。
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引用次数: 0
Quantitative data and models for bacterial cross-contamination in domestic kitchen during food handling and preparation 家庭厨房在食物处理和准备过程中细菌交叉污染的定量数据和模型
IF 4 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-01 Epub Date: 2025-09-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100356
Dixuan Cai , Jinhan He , Runrun Zhang , Xinyu Liao , Juhee Ahn , Jinsong Feng , Tian Ding
Cross-contamination is a significant factor contributing to outbreaks of foodborne diseases and food spoilage, and is an important component of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The domestic environment represents the final stage of exposure assessment, and data underscore that the exposure risk of foodborne pathogens to consumers is closely linked to cross-contamination in household settings. However, transfer rate data and cross-contamination models from previous studies are fragmented and require integration and categorization for more effective utilization within the QMRA framework. This review summarizes the potential impacts of vehicles during bacterial transmission, transfer rate data for common routes, and current models in domestic kitchens, providing valuable support for cross-contamination modeling within the exposure assessment. In the future, the data gap in the household scenario should be further investigated, particularly in water- and glove-mediated processes. The models can be further improved and refined as deeper underlying mechanisms are uncovered, alongside consumer behavior investigations and the application of AI-powered methods.
交叉污染是导致食源性疾病暴发和食品腐败的重要因素,是定量微生物风险评估(QMRA)的重要组成部分。家庭环境是暴露评估的最后阶段,数据强调,食源性病原体对消费者的暴露风险与家庭环境中的交叉污染密切相关。然而,先前研究的转移率数据和交叉污染模型是碎片化的,需要整合和分类,以便在QMRA框架内更有效地利用。本文综述了车辆在细菌传播过程中的潜在影响、常见途径的传播率数据以及家庭厨房的现有模型,为暴露评估中的交叉污染建模提供了有价值的支持。今后,应进一步调查家庭情景中的数据差距,特别是在水和手套介导的过程中。随着更深层次的潜在机制的发现,以及消费者行为调查和人工智能方法的应用,这些模型可以进一步改进和完善。
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引用次数: 0
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Microbial Risk Analysis
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