Microbial Risk Analysis最新文献

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment using individual data on food storage and consumption (Part 1): A case study on listeriosis associated to ready-to-eat foods in France

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100343

Hernán G. Redondo , Laurent Guillier , Virginie Desvignes , Matthias Filter , Sara M. Pires , Maarten Nauta

The risk of acquiring foodborne infections such as listeriosis is influenced by individuals’ food consumption and food storage practices. So far, quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) studies have mostly treated the related variables as independent, creating potentially unrealistic high-risk conditions, such as combinations of big portion size, high frequency of consumption, high storage temperature and long storage time. Therefore, in this study, we integrated individual food consumption and food storage data collected by the French national dietary survey INCA3 with food contamination data to estimate the risk of listeriosis in France, without assuming independence of variables. The aim was to assess and compare risks for different population groups and for different food groups, to identify risk factors and characterize high-risk groups. We adapted a QMRA model previously developed for the assessment of the number of listeriosis cases associated to ready-to-eat (RTE) foods in the EU. We modified the exposure assessment to use an individual-based approach in which consumer-specific consumption data and food safety practices are used to calculate exposure. Results showed that high-risk individuals stored their food in their refrigerator for longer and at higher temperatures prior to consumption than low-risk individuals. Smoked fish and pâte were estimated to be responsible for 66 % of the likely 393 annual cases for France. Improved characterization of high-risk individuals and their determinants for risk may contribute to better targeted food safety guidance. We demonstrated that considering individual-based data in QMRA opens the way for the establishment of risk-based measures that are specific for distinct individuals within the population.The advantage of this “individual-based” QMRA approach is that the observed variation between individual consumers in the four variables “frequency of consumption”, “portion size”, “storage time” and “storage temperature” is taken into account, and that it includes their interdependency for each individual consumer.

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引用次数: 0

Pathogens-in-Foods (PIF): An open-access European database of occurrence data of biological hazards in foods

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100342

Ursula Gonzales-Barron , Ana Sofia Faria , Anne Thebault , Laurent Guillier , Lucas Ribeiro Mendes , Lucas Ribeiro Silva , Winy Messens , Pauline Kooh , Vasco Cadavez

The collection of occurrence data of foodborne pathogens in foods faces the hindrances of dispersion of information, lack of standardisation and harmonisation, and ultimately, high expenditure in time and resources. The Pathogens-in-Foods (PIF) database was conceived as a solution to centralise published data on prevalence and concentration of pathogenic bacteria, viruses and parasites occurring in foods, obtained through systematic review (SR), and categorised in harmonised data structures under controlled terminologies. The present article outlines how PIF was constructed to adhere to the FAIR (findability, accessibility, interoperability and reusability) principles for scientific data management; and proceeds with a description of the PIF concept, which entails two phases: the SR process and the population of PIF. The protocolled SR process is supported by a well-defined search strategy, inclusion criteria, and rules for internal validation assessment; whereas the population of PIF with new data relies in data extraction, validation and release. The article then introduces a novel data quality approach, named as the CCC approach (data consistency, conformity and completeness), which ensures proper interpretation of data, richness of data, and flawless transcription of data. After a brief explanation of the three PIF components – database, back-end and front-end – the article proceeds with the exposition of the data model, as well as the capabilities of the front-end, including data search, insertion and curation. The future of PIF lies in expanding its capabilities, addressing emerging challenges, and leveraging technological advancements to maintain its relevance and utility in the evolving landscape of food safety.

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引用次数: 0

Microbial assessments for import risk assessment: reflections and future perspectives

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2025.100341

Amie Adkin, Steve Wearne

引用次数: 0

Microbial risk analysis from a food industry perspective – insights from an international survey

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-12-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100340

Alexandra Fetsch , Nunzio Sarnino , Konstantinos Koutsoumanis , Maarten Nauta , Martin Wiedmann , Katharina D.C. Stärk , Monika Ehling-Schulz , Roger Stephan , Sophia Johler

Foodborne microbial hazards lead to substantial morbidity and mortality. To assure consumer protection, a need to move from hazard-based to risk-based food safety approaches is increasingly recognized. Food-business-operators play a crucial role by implementing risk management practices in their facilities. Still, there is very limited data on current approaches to ensure microbial food safety and the profiles and perceptions of professionals assessing, managing, and communicating risks in food industry. This study addresses food safety approaches and challenges in food industry aiming to provide data on microbial risk analysis according to Codex Alimentarius. A survey elicited responses from 108 food professionals involved in microbial risk assessment, risk management, or risk communication in the food industry. The findings highlight drivers and trends relevant to food safety and the food industries’ internal decision-making processes. Most participants had risk-based food-safety management systems established. A microbial risk assessment according to Codex Alimentarius principles was conducted by 85 %. Professionals pinpointed areas that led to significant microbial incidents such as contaminated raw materials, poor hygiene, or emerging pathogens. Interestingly, one third of the participants believed that zero risk is possible, which contrasts with the scientific consensus that microbial food safety is not absolute as zero risk is not feasible. The results of this work provide insights into the implementation and understanding of microbial risk analysis from a food industrial perspective and could be leveraged to develop innovative microbial risk analysis frameworks that meet the challenges of future food systems.

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引用次数: 0

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment using individual data on food storage and consumption (Part 2): A comparison with traditional QMRA approaches

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100339

Hernán G. Redondo , Laurent Guillier , Virginie Desvignes , Matthias Filter , Sara M. Pires , Maarten Nauta

In a previous study, we integrated data from individual consumers collected in a dietary survey in France in a multi-food quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) for listeriosis. Here, we compared the “individual-based” modelling approach applied in that study with several other approaches where the data are treated as in more “traditional” QMRA methods, for example by assuming independent randomly sampled variables from distributions fitted through the data, instead of the observed individual data themselves. We found that assigning randomly sampled storage times instead of the reported individual storage times resulted in a higher risk estimate than the baseline, expressed as expected annual number of cases in the population. Assigning randomly sampled storage temperature and point estimates for portion size and frequency of consumption, slightly increased the estimated risk. Statistical analysis did not show dependency between portion size, frequency of consumption, storage temperature and storage time in the data set, which can be explained by the fact that only a few individuals had a large impact on the final population risk. Analysis of expected numbers of cases per age class, sex and food group showed small differences between approaches. Our analysis was challenged by the difference between a model structure where the risk is calculated per individual (when based on a dietary survey with individual data) and one where it is calculated per serving, as in “traditional” QMRA. We showed that an “individual-based” QMRA is more resource-demanding but can give fundamentally different risk estimates, which are potentially more accurate. The application of tools for efficient knowledge exchange and integration is needed to facilitate the usage of this type of QMRA.

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引用次数: 0

An international disease monitoring tool to estimate the likelihood of entry of animal health hazards from legal trade of live animals and products of animal origin imported from different countries (IDM+)

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100338

Alex Royden , Robert Dewar , Brendan Cowled , Rohan Sadler , Alison Hillman , Laura C. Gonzalez-Villeta , Helen Roberts , Catherine McCarthy , Robin R.L. Simons

Trade of live animals and products of animal origin (POAO) carries an inherent risk of spreading pathogens. As such, it is essential for any country to have effective early detection and/or horizon scanning systems in place to be aware of the potential entry risks of pathogens. To this end, the United Kingdom has a number of horizon scanning and risk assessment tools to carry out international disease monitoring. Here we develop these ideas further in a generic, semi-quantitative risk assessment tool; the International Disease Monitoring Plus (IDM+) tool.

The IDM+ tool utilises publicly available data on the presence of terrestrial animal health pathogens and volumes of commodities imported into Great Britain (GB) from multiple trading partners. Identifying the likelihood of a pathogen arriving at the GB border involved >550 individual commodity types, 125 pathogens and 55 countries. It also includes expert opinion on country and commodity specific mitigation measures, to derive a likelihood of entry score for each country, commodity, and pathogen combination.

This paper presents an example of the model used to assess commodities being imported into GB. However, the principle could be applied to any country accepting imports of live animals or POAO.

The IDM+ model considers changes in global pathogen distribution and trade volumes to provide ongoing and rapid appraisal of the likelihood of entry for different commodities, countries, and pathogens. It is designed to be quick to run with a largely automated process, further enabling rapid updates with new disease and trade source and volume data. The model can present results with and without trade volume weighting and with different likelihoods. When a specific import disease risk is identified to be of concern, carrying out a comprehensive import risk analysis is still recommended. However, this model is a valuable tool to provide a holistic overview and comparison of the likelihood of entry to GB of a large number of potential threats to animal health. It can be utilised in time-constrained environments and when limited data are available. The results can be of direct use for a variety of purposes, including, but not limited to, prioritisation of border inspections and in-country audits, rapid output generation for emergency outbreak assessments and/or assessing risk from specific imported consignments.

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Spatial risk assessment of ovine Scrapie in Brazil” [Microbial Risk Analysis 25 (2023) 100282] 对 "巴西绵羊疥癣病的空间风险评估 "的更正[微生物风险分析 25 (2023) 100282]

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100311

Paulo Gomes do Nascimento Corrêa , Francisco Alyson Silva Oliveira , Rivanni Jeniffer Souza Castro , Carlos Thiago Silveira Alvim Mendes de Oliveira , Glenda Lídice de Oliveira Cortez Marinho , Abelardo Silva Júnior , Ricardo Antonio Pilegi Sfaciotte , David Germano Gonçalves Schwarz

引用次数: 0

Quantitative microbial risk assessment of antibiotic-resistant Salmonella enterica contaminating hydroponic leafy vegetables 对水培叶菜类污染的耐抗生素肠炎沙门氏菌进行微生物定量风险评估

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100330

Shun Takayama , Qian Zhang , Ye Htut Zwe , Dan Li , Daisuke Sano , Wakana Oishi

Hydroponics plays an important role in addressing food security concerns, particularly in countries aiming to increase food self-sufficiency. However, it is vulnerable to microbial contamination, and biofilms formed in hydroponic facilities may promote horizontal gene transfer (HGT) of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs). Eventually, the bacteria are internalized into the edible parts of the vegetable through the roots, which can lead to human exposure to antibiotic-resistant pathogenic bacteria. Microbial risk assessment can play a pivotal role in microbial risk management; however, it has not been conducted for hydroponic systems. In this study, a quantitative microbial risk assessment of hydroponic vegetables was performed using literature values regarding the concentration of Salmonella spp. in hydroponics, efficiency of HGT, probability and rate of internalization, vegetable consumption patterns, and dose-response relationships. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis was performed to identify the factors that had a significant impact on the infection probability per single exposure event for all Salmonella spp. by calculating Spearman's correlation coefficients. The estimated annual probability of infection per person by all Salmonella spp. was 2.04 × 10⁻¹, while the estimated probability of infection from Salmonella spp. that acquired ARGs was 2.54 × 10⁻⁶. Our sensitivity analysis showed the correlation between the occurrence of internalization and hydroponic contamination levels, highlighting the need for increased awareness and regulatory action.

水培技术在解决粮食安全问题方面发挥着重要作用，尤其是在旨在提高粮食自给率的国家。然而，它很容易受到微生物污染，水培设施中形成的生物膜可能会促进抗生素抗性基因（ARGs）的水平基因转移（HGT）。最终，细菌通过根部内化到蔬菜的可食用部分，从而导致人类接触到抗生素致病菌。微生物风险评估可在微生物风险管理中发挥关键作用，但目前还没有针对水培系统进行过这种评估。本研究利用有关水培蔬菜中沙门氏菌属浓度、HGT 效率、内化概率和速率、蔬菜消费模式和剂量-反应关系的文献值，对水培蔬菜进行了定量微生物风险评估。此外，还通过计算斯皮尔曼相关系数进行了敏感性分析，以确定对所有沙门氏菌属的单次接触感染概率有重大影响的因素。估计每人每年感染所有沙门氏菌属的概率为 2.04 × 10-1，而感染获得 ARGs 的沙门氏菌属的概率为 2.54 × 10-6。我们的敏感性分析表明，内吸发生率与水培污染水平之间存在相关性，这突出表明有必要提高人们的认识并采取监管措施。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring transboundary disease spread - ASF in wild boars straddling Piedmont and Liguria 测量跨境疾病传播 - 跨越皮埃蒙特和利古里亚的野猪感染 ASF

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100329

Nicoletta Vitale , Paola Barzanti , Ines Crescio Maria , Rosanna Desiato , Lisa Guardone , Valeria Listorti , Walter Martelli , Cristiana Maurella , Barbara Moroni , Rosaria Possidente , Francesca Rossi , Giuseppe Ru

The aim of this paper is to describe the impact, dynamics and risk factors of the incursion of the African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detected in early 2022 in the wild boar population straddling Piedmont and Liguria, 24 months after its emergence.

A study area of 4,162.2 km²s, comprising 234 municipalities in Liguria and Piedmont (north-western Italy), along with an external buffer zone, was considered. The epidemiological units were wild boars tested for ASF using real-time PCR between late December 2021 and December 31, 2023. The data were obtained from passive and active surveillance. Conventional methodologies were applied in the analysis of time series of tests, cases, or prevalence rates of positive animals. Maps were used to visualise and compare the monitoring activities, the location of cases and municipal standardised prevalence ratios. Clustering of high and low trends was studied by semester using a space-time permutation model. Risk factors analysis was based on multivariate Poisson regression modelling.

Over the 2-year study period, the epidemic's spread was closely monitored by testing 10,412 wild boars (25 % of them from passive surveillance). Probability of disease detection was 10.9 times higher among found dead animals compared with animals tested in active surveillance. Difficulties in carcass searching led to heterogeneities in surveillance sensitivity achieved locally and inherent uncertainties. A total of 1,165 wild boars that tested positive for ASF have been detected in 125 municipalities across three provinces. The outbreak has expanded over time and exhibited an increasing trend, with an epidemic doubling time of 10.7 months. There was seasonality, with an increasing trend from summer to spring. Prevalence rates followed the same temporal pattern. Significant low and high clusters respectively indicated endemic episodes in the interior areas of virus circulation and an ongoing invasion of surrounding regions.

The characteristics of this outbreak align with the cycle of wild boar habitat transmission observed in other outbreaks across Europe. The measures implemented were not sufficient to stop the epidemic: however, targeted interventions such as depopulation campaigns, reinforcement of physical barriers and increased biosecurity measures have prevented local spillover to domestic pigs and partially hindered the advance of the disease. In addition, the shown seasonality of the disease, likely can enhance control measures. The ongoing studies of the local wild boar populations and the evolution the epidemic along with the lessons learned so far will improve the efficiency and effectiveness of efforts to limit and ultimately eradicate the disease.

本文旨在描述非洲猪瘟（ASF）病毒出现 24 个月后，于 2022 年初在横跨皮埃蒙特和利古里亚的野猪种群中发现的影响、动态和风险因素。研究区域面积为 4,162.2 平方公里，包括利古里亚和皮埃蒙特（意大利西北部）的 234 个市镇以及外部缓冲区。流行病学单位是 2021 年 12 月底至 2023 年 12 月 31 日期间使用实时 PCR 进行 ASF 检测的野猪。数据来自被动和主动监测。常规方法用于分析检测、病例或阳性动物流行率的时间序列。地图用于直观显示和比较监测活动、病例地点和城市标准化流行率。利用时空置换模型对高趋势和低趋势的聚类进行了学期研究。在两年的研究期间，通过检测 10,412 头野猪（其中 25% 来自被动监测）密切监控了疫情的传播。与主动监测中检测到的动物相比，在发现的死亡动物中发现疾病的概率要高出 10.9 倍。尸体搜寻的困难导致了当地监测灵敏度的差异和固有的不确定性。在三个省的 125 个城市中，共检测到 1,165 头野猪对 ASF 呈阳性反应。随着时间的推移，疫情不断扩大，呈上升趋势，疫情翻倍时间为 10.7 个月。疫情有季节性，从夏季到春季呈上升趋势。流行率也呈现相同的时间模式。显著的低群集和高群集分别表明病毒传播的内部地区出现了流行性发作，并正在向周边地区入侵。所采取的措施并不足以阻止疫情：然而，有针对性的干预措施，如扑杀运动、加强物理屏障和强化生物安全措施，防止了疫情在当地蔓延到家猪，并部分阻碍了疫情的发展。此外，该疾病显示出的季节性很可能会加强控制措施。对当地野猪种群和疫情演变情况的持续研究以及迄今为止获得的经验教训将提高限制和最终根除该疾病的效率和效果。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing urban street food safety among youth: The impact of road dust on potential microbial contamination risks to student health 评估城市青少年街头食品安全：道路灰尘对学生健康潜在微生物污染风险的影响

IF 3 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microbial Risk Analysis

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.mran.2024.100327

Thanh Tran , Van Huu Dat , Vu Nhat Phuong , Tran Hoang Cam Tu , Do Vinh Duong , Ho Huu Loc

This study investigates the potential impact of air pollution on street food safety within educational environments, highlighting how airborne pollutants contribute to the microbial contamination of food, beverages, and environmental dust. A mixed-method approach was employed, combining microbial analyses with a survey of 200 students using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to assess attitudes, social pressures, and control over food safety practices. The findings reveal significant contamination levels: dust samples showed Coliform and E. coli concentrations of 3 × 10³ CFU/g and 2 × 10³ CFU/g, respectively, while food samples exhibited even higher microbial loads, with Coliform levels reaching 6.4 × 10⁶ CFU/g and E. coli up to 1 × 10⁴ CFU/g. SPSS 20 analysis reflects substantial concerns among students regarding the safety of street foods, emphasizing the need for increased public awareness. By establishing a clear link between air pollution and the microbial risks associated with street food, the study advocates for enhanced consumer education and regulatory measures to mitigate health risks and protect public health.

本研究调查了空气污染对教育环境中的街头食品安全的潜在影响，强调了空气中的污染物如何造成食品、饮料和环境灰尘的微生物污染。研究采用了一种混合方法，将微生物分析与对 200 名学生的调查相结合，利用计划行为理论（TPB）来评估学生对食品安全做法的态度、社会压力和控制力。调查结果显示了严重的污染水平：灰尘样本中的大肠菌群和大肠杆菌浓度分别为 3 × 10³ CFU/g 和 2 × 10³ CFU/g，而食物样本中的微生物含量更高，大肠菌群达到 6.4 × 10⁶ CFU/g，大肠杆菌达到 1 × 10⁴ CFU/g。SPSS 20 分析反映了学生对街头食品安全的极大担忧，强调了提高公众意识的必要性。通过建立空气污染与街头食品微生物风险之间的明确联系，该研究提倡加强消费者教育和监管措施，以降低健康风险和保护公众健康。

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引用次数: 0