Goat meat supply and demand in Vietnam: global context and opportunities and risks for smallholder producers

Abstract

Goats are the fastest increasing livestock population on earth, growing by 29% in the past decade. In Vietnam, goat numbers grew remarkably faster at 103% in the same period. To understand the reasons for this rapid growth and implications, we explored the characteristics of Vietnamese goat supply and demand and identified risks and opportunities for smallholder goat producers. Our analysis finds that the continued growth of goat consumption in Vietnam is driven by Vietnam’s: (1) large and growing population (97.3 million) and economy; (2) high meat consumption relative to Gross Domestic Product; (3) high social value placed on goat consumption; (4) increasing popularity of meat consumption; (5) established socio-cultural goat consumption practices; (6) increasing preference for grass-fed meat; and (7) increasing supply from neighbouring countries. As a result, growth in Vietnamese goat meat prices has continually outperformed growth in goat supply over the past decade. Supply is mainly produced by thousands of smallholder farmers in Vietnam and neighbouring Laos. Hence, there are important livelihood and rural development opportunities for producers to increase and diversify into goats. In Laos, each additional goat sold represents a 4.75% increase in smallholder household income per year. To reduce risks to goat producers, research is needed to: (1) forecast the current and future demand for goats in Vietnam to prevent oversupply leading to price collapse; (2) understand how premiums are awarded for goat characteristics; (3) investigate pathways for formalising trade and its impacts on smallholders; and (4) establish strategies for producers to improve supply without degrading natural resources, or increase disease outbreak risk.