Drivers of transportation CO2 emissions and their changing patterns: Empirical results from 18 countries

IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Transport Geography Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103957
Xuezong Tao , Lichao Zhu
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Abstract

Transportation continues to be a significant contributor to CO2 emissions and may potentially be the final sector to reach its carbon peak in the future. Identifying the drivers of transportation CO2 emissions (TCE) and understanding their changing patterns is crucial to effectively control TCE. However, previous studies can only obtain fixed parameter values of TCE influencing factors throughout the study period, or although they can obtain the impacts of specific factors on TCE with accompanying changes over the years, they cannot conveniently clarify the changing patterns. Therefore, the key contribution of this study resides in providing a spatially explicit understanding of the heterogeneous primary drivers of TCE across countries, and in uncovering the temporal dynamics of these primary drivers' influences on TCE. The results show that at the country-group level (considering 18 selected countries as a group, collectively representing over 60% of global TCE), the drivers of TCE were GDP, energy intensity, and population in order of contribution. However, for developed countries, GDP and energy intensity contributed less to TCE than for developing countries. In addition, the influence of energy intensity on TCE declined faster than that of GDP, suggesting that decoupling TCE from economic growth should always be the top priority regardless of a country's development level. Policy-wise, for countries where GDP is the primary driver of TCE, measures to reduce transportation activities include industrial upgrading, coordinated planning, and accessibility promotion. For countries where energy intensity is the primary driver of TCE, measures to improve transportation efficiency consist of technology adoption, regulation/pricing, and habit improvement.

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交通二氧化碳排放的驱动因素及其变化模式:来自 18 个国家的经验结果
交通仍然是二氧化碳排放的重要来源,并有可能成为未来达到碳排放峰值的最后一个部门。确定交通一氧化碳排放(TCE)的驱动因素并了解其变化规律对于有效控制 TCE 至关重要。然而,以往的研究只能获得整个研究期间运输二氧化碳排放影响因素的固定参数值,或者虽然可以获得特定因素对运输二氧化碳排放的影响及其随时间的变化,但却无法方便地阐明其变化规律。因此,本研究的主要贡献在于从空间上明确理解了各国贸易和出口的主要驱动因素,并揭示了这些主要驱动因素对贸易和出口影响的时间动态。研究结果表明,在国家组层面上(将 18 个选定国家视为一个国家组,这些国家合计占全球总排放量的 60% 以上),总排放量的驱动因素依次为国内生产总值、能源强度和人口。然而,与发展中国家相比,发达国家的国内生产总值和能源密集度对贸易和能源消耗的影响较小。此外,能源强度对 TCE 的影响比 GDP 的影响下降得更快,这表明无论一个国家的发展水平如何,都应始终把 TCE 与经济增长脱钩作为首要任务。从政策角度看,对于国内生产总值是运输和能源消耗主要驱动因素的国家,减少运输活动的措施包括产业升级、协调规划和促进无障碍环境。对于能源强度是运输效率的主要驱动因素的国家,提高运输效率的措施包括采用技术、监管/定价和改善习惯。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
11.50
自引率
11.50%
发文量
197
期刊介绍: A major resurgence has occurred in transport geography in the wake of political and policy changes, huge transport infrastructure projects and responses to urban traffic congestion. The Journal of Transport Geography provides a central focus for developments in this rapidly expanding sub-discipline.
期刊最新文献
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