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Please mind the gap: Examining regional variations in private vehicle carbon dioxide emissions and fuel consumption—The case of Australia 请注意差距:研究私家车二氧化碳排放和燃料消耗的地区差异--澳大利亚案例
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104023
Kai Li Lim , Ying Lu , Anthony Kimpton , Renee Zahnow , Tiebei Li , Jago Dodson , Neil Sipe , Jonathan Corcoran
This study investigates the geographic and annual variations in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and fuel consumption generated by private vehicles across Australia's regions over an 18-year period (2002 to 2020). We examine the influence of vehicle numbers, geography, and time on emissions and fuel consumption using spatial analysis alongside panel regression. Emissions remain relatively high in North Queensland, the Northern Territory, and South West Western Australia and Greater Sydney had steepest decline among the metropolitan regions. Modelling results reveal that higher numbers of internal combustion engine vehicles are positively associated with higher CO2 emissions and fuel usage while higher numbers of electric vehicles are negatively associated. This underscores the importance of targeting high-emission regions for transitioning to electric vehicles. The current study provides empirical insights that hold important implications for policymakers concerning the spatial and temporal trends in private vehicle emissions with the potential to inform low-carbon transport planning.
本研究调查了澳大利亚各地区私家车在 18 年内(2002 年至 2020 年)产生的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量和燃料消耗量的地域和年度变化。我们利用空间分析和面板回归研究了车辆数量、地理位置和时间对排放量和燃料消耗量的影响。在昆士兰北部、北领地和西澳大利亚西南部,排放量仍然相对较高,而在大都市地区中,大悉尼地区的排放量下降幅度最大。建模结果显示,内燃机汽车数量越多,二氧化碳排放量和燃料使用量越高,两者呈正相关,而电动汽车数量越多,两者呈负相关。这强调了针对高排放地区过渡到电动汽车的重要性。本研究提供的经验见解对政策制定者了解私家车排放的空间和时间趋势具有重要意义,有可能为低碳交通规划提供参考。
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引用次数: 0
Mining female commuter typology, commute cost and labor supply in Riyadh: a space-time investigation based on e-hail taxi data 挖掘利雅得女性通勤者类型、通勤成本和劳动力供应:基于电子出租车数据的时空调查
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104049
Waishan Qiu
Before 2018, Saudi Arabia was the only country that enshrined a legal prohibition on women driving. However, little has been done to empirically investigate the associations between female commute cost and labor supply before the driving ban was lifted. This is largely due to the data scarcity on disaggregated-level female mobility patterns and travel behaviors. To fill the gap, this study deployed a space-time framework to identify suspicious female roundtrip commuters whose majority of taxi trips were between home and workplaces based on about one million e-hailing O-D data from female passengers in Riyadh. Her commute costs (i.e., distance, time, out-of-pocket cost, commute burden) and labor supply information (i.e., work hours, skill-job mismatch) were then inferred by supplementing neighborhood-level Census data and open data on major female employers. Overall, female riders had significantly longer travel distance/time and higher out-of-pocket costs than male passengers. Though no causal statements were made, higher commute burden was related to lower Saudi female employment rate and longer working hours, while lower burden was associated with higher skill-job mismatch in terms of over-education, confirming our hypotheses that well-educated Saudi females might 1) choose not to work, 2) extend hours of work to offset travel costs, or 3) switch to nearby jobs with lower wage and skill-job match. Therefore, females’ restricted mobility became a non-negligible job market friction. Meanwhile, females worked in the manufacturing sector could pay more than 75% of her wages on e-taxis, implying a sector-specific spatial mismatch issue. Our findings provide a useful baseline on the female travel cost and labor supply situations before the lifting of driving ban. It enables comparative studies to understand the impacts of ongoing women empowerment for mobility and employment autonomy. The space-time framework also provides useful references for future research when gender-specific travel behavior surveys are not feasible.
2018 年之前,沙特阿拉伯是唯一一个在法律上禁止女性驾车的国家。然而,在驾驶禁令取消之前,很少有人对女性通勤成本与劳动力供应之间的关联进行实证研究。这主要是由于缺乏女性流动模式和出行行为的分类数据。为填补这一空白,本研究采用时空框架,基于约 100 万条利雅得女性乘客的电子叫车 O-D 数据,识别出可疑的女性往返通勤者,她们的大部分出租车出行都是在家庭和工作地点之间。然后,通过补充社区一级的人口普查数据和主要女性雇主的公开数据,推断出她的通勤成本(即距离、时间、自付成本、通勤负担)和劳动力供应信息(即工作时间、技能-工作不匹配)。总体而言,与男性乘客相比,女性乘客的出行距离/时间明显更长,自付费用也更高。虽然没有因果关系的说明,但通勤负担较高与沙特女性就业率较低和工作时间较长有关,而通勤负担较低与教育程度较高的技能-工作不匹配有关,这证实了我们的假设,即受过良好教育的沙特女性可能会:1)选择不工作;2)延长工作时间以抵消旅行成本;或 3)转而从事附近工资和技能-工作匹配度较低的工作。因此,女性的流动性受限成为就业市场上不可忽视的摩擦因素。与此同时,在制造业工作的女性可以将 75% 以上的工资用于支付电子税,这意味着存在特定行业的空间错配问题。我们的研究结果为解禁前女性的出行成本和劳动力供给状况提供了一个有用的基线。通过比较研究,我们可以了解当前妇女赋权对流动性和就业自主性的影响。当针对不同性别的出行行为调查不可行时,时空框架也为未来研究提供了有用的参考。
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引用次数: 0
Transport network changes and varying socioeconomic effects across China's Yangtze River Delta 中国长江三角洲地区交通网络的变化及其对社会经济的不同影响
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104051
Junxi Qu , Tianren Yang , Kyung-Min Nam , Euijune Kim , Yimin Chen , Xingjian Liu
Newly constructed transport infrastructure may have varying socioeconomic effects across cities and regions. This study employs a spatial equilibrium model to examine how the development of expressways and high-speed rails (HSRs) may induce changes in employed residents, housing rents, and consumer surplus within China's Yangtze River Delta region. Empirical findings indicate limited effects of transport infrastructure in reducing disparities, when juxtaposed with the substantial and sometimes conflicting impacts of urban development (i.e., job and housing increments) at the regional level. A more detailed spatial analysis suggests that the positive effects towards even development from transport accessibility improvements are more applicable to bridging intra-city-regional disparities. This highlights the necessity for integrated urban development and transportation planning policies to optimise equitable socioeconomic outcomes.
新建的交通基础设施可能会对不同城市和地区产生不同的社会经济影响。本研究采用空间均衡模型,考察了中国长江三角洲地区高速公路和高速铁路(高铁)的发展如何引起就业居民、住房租金和消费者剩余的变化。实证研究结果表明,交通基础设施在缩小差距方面的作用有限,而城市发展(即增加就业岗位和住房)在区域层面的影响巨大,有时甚至相互冲突。更详细的空间分析表明,改善交通可达性对均匀发展的积极影响更适用于弥合城市内部和区域之间的差距。这凸显了综合城市发展和交通规划政策的必要性,以优化公平的社会经济成果。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the impact of transit accessibility on employment density: A spatial analysis of gravity-based accessibility incorporating job matching, transit service types, and first/last mile modes 评估公交可达性对就业密度的影响:基于重力的可达性空间分析,纳入工作匹配、公交服务类型以及首/末英里模式
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104053
Seyedsoheil Sharifiasl , Subham Kharel , Qisheng Pan , Jianling Li
Transportation economics studies show that the activity density, in particular, employment density, is influenced by availability and quality of transportation infrastructure and services, including public transit. These studies also show that businesses and economic activities may have unique requirements, preferences, and characteristics, which may lead to varying effect of transportation on different sectors. However, the relationship between transit infrastructure and employment density has been examined mostly using simple transit proximity distance or travel time in the past research and few have used transit accessibility, and none have accounted for first/last mile (FMLM) modality, different public transit service type, and job matching mechanisms. This study attempts to fill these gaps by utilizing a new accessibility measure that is adaptive to the aforesaid features and comparing its relationship with employment density across various industries. The results show a positive and significant relationship between employment density and bus service accessibility for all industrial sectors, while the effect of light rail service is significant only for finance, real estate, insurance, food, and accommodation industrial sectors, and when FMLM modality is driving. Proximity to public transit was found to be a stronger predictor of job density than accessibility. Additionally, the effect of closeness to highway network was almost twice the effect of transit proximity for all sectors, especially for blue-collar jobs. The results also highlight that industrial sectors tend to cluster in areas with higher employment diversity but are indifferent towards higher land use diversity. These results signify several challenges in transportation equity and multimodal planning and policies. Improving regional public transit integration through coordinated physical infrastructure, fare systems, and schedules, along with enhancing walking amenities in key areas, could improve connectivity between activities. Additionally, incorporating equity considerations into land use planning, such as through distributional impact analysis, can help monitor and ensure equity in future urban developments.
交通经济学研究表明,活动密度,尤其是就业密度,受到包括公共交通在内的交通基础设施和服务的可用性和质量的影响。这些研究还表明,企业和经济活动可能有独特的要求、偏好和特点,这可能会导致交通对不同行业产生不同的影响。然而,在过去的研究中,人们大多使用简单的公交邻近距离或旅行时间来研究公交基础设施与就业密度之间的关系,很少有人使用公交可达性,也没有人考虑到第一/最后一英里(FMLM)模式、不同的公共交通服务类型和就业匹配机制。本研究试图利用一种适应上述特征的新的可达性测量方法,并比较其与各行业就业密度的关系,从而填补这些空白。研究结果表明,在所有行业部门,就业密度与公交服务可达性之间存在显著的正相关关系,而轻轨服务的影响仅在金融、房地产、保险、食品和住宿行业部门以及采用 FMLM 模式时显著。与可达性相比,与公共交通的邻近程度更能预测就业密度。此外,在所有行业中,靠近高速公路网络的影响几乎是靠近公共交通影响的两倍,尤其是对蓝领工作而言。研究结果还突出表明,工业部门倾向于聚集在就业多样性较高的地区,但对土地利用多样性较高的地区却无动于衷。这些结果表明,在交通公平和多式联运规划与政策方面存在一些挑战。通过协调有形基础设施、票价系统和时间表来改善区域公共交通一体化,同时加强关键区域的步行设施,可以改善活动之间的连接性。此外,将公平因素纳入土地利用规划,如通过分布影响分析,有助于监测和确保未来城市发展的公平性。
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引用次数: 0
Complex network analysis of fossil fuel functional regions in the United States during the period 2017 to 2022 2017 年至 2022 年期间美国化石燃料功能区的复杂网络分析
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104054
Konstadinos G. Goulias, Hui Shi
In this paper we use complex network analysis to describe fossil fuel spatial flows among 132 places covering the entire United States in 2017 and in 2022. These spatial flows are for crude petroleum, gasoline, and oil fuels. The analysis shows that all three fuels have different network topology. For all six networks we find major hubs of crude petroleum and its products, gasoline and fuel oils, concentrated in areas with large reserves such as the south-central part of the US. Using modularity, a network cluster identification metric, we show that spatial interactions can be used to delineate functional regions and their differences across fuel types. These functional regions evolve over time in response to the shifting US role as a major producer and net exporter of fossil fuels, expansion of the domestic pipeline network, and increases in fuel production and refinement locations. The modal split of the fuels examined in this paper shows the dominant role pipelines play for crude petroleum, transporting approximately 83 % of tonnage in 2017 and increasing to almost 89 % in 2022. In contrast, gasoline and oil fuels modal split hovers at around 60 % of tonnage transported by tanker truck followed by other modes including pipelines. Our analysis shows geographic clustering of major hubs and their functional regions along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana. These are in places that are often the locations of natural disasters. This together with the rapid increase of a few hubs as gateways to fossil fuel US exports makes them prime candidates in disrupting fossil fuel supply chains worldwide and amplifies vulnerability of fossil fuel supply chains. The spatial clustering trends shown in this paper provide added evidence of the source of short-term negative impacts in places such as Chicago in Illinois and Corpus Christi in Texas. This offers added information for government intervention.
在本文中,我们使用复杂网络分析来描述 2017 年和 2022 年全美 132 个地方之间的化石燃料空间流。这些空间流涉及原油、汽油和石油燃料。分析表明,这三种燃料具有不同的网络拓扑结构。在所有六个网络中,我们发现原油及其产品、汽油和燃油的主要枢纽都集中在美国中南部等储量丰富的地区。利用模块化这一网络集群识别指标,我们发现空间交互作用可用于划分功能区域及其在不同燃料类型之间的差异。随着美国作为化石燃料主要生产国和净出口国的角色转变、国内管道网络的扩张以及燃料生产和提炼地点的增加,这些功能区也在随时间不断演变。本文研究的燃料模式划分显示,管道在原油运输中占据主导地位,2017 年约占运输吨位的 83%,2022 年将增至近 89%。相比之下,汽油和石油燃料的运输方式中,油罐车运输吨位占 60% 左右,其次是包括管道在内的其他运输方式。我们的分析显示,德克萨斯州和路易斯安那州墨西哥湾沿岸的主要枢纽及其功能区在地理上呈集群状分布。这些地方往往是自然灾害的多发地。这种情况加上少数几个枢纽作为美国化石燃料出口门户的迅速增加,使它们成为破坏全球化石燃料供应链的主要候选者,并加剧了化石燃料供应链的脆弱性。本文显示的空间集群趋势为伊利诺伊州芝加哥和得克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂等地的短期负面影响来源提供了更多证据。这为政府干预提供了更多信息。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial drivers of logistics development in the Netherlands 荷兰物流发展的空间驱动因素
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104047
Apeksha Tare , Merten Nefs , Eric Koomen , Erik Verhoef
Empirical studies of logistics location choice have largely focused on logistics as a single sector. This research attempts to address this research gap by analysing the heterogeneity in locational preferences of logistics across facility types and sizes. We estimate a multinomial logistic regression model to study the relative impact of various spatial drivers on logistics development in the Netherlands. We explicitly assess the role of a government policy aimed at stimulating logistics growth. We find that factors such as highway and rail accessibility, proximity to consumers and urban areas, land availability, and proximity to other logistics firms have a positive effect across all logistics categories while restrictive zoning measures have a negative effect. On the contrary, the effects of factors such as access to seaports and freight terminals, urban attractiveness, and land price are more heterogeneous and vary with the function and size of logistics. Finally, our analysis also reveals positive effects of the logistics growth stimulating spatial policy. Using our estimated parameters, we also map the predicted probabilities to identify potential future locations for logistics development.
对物流区位选择的实证研究主要集中于物流这一单一行业。本研究试图通过分析不同设施类型和规模的物流选址偏好的异质性来填补这一研究空白。我们估计了一个多项式逻辑回归模型,以研究各种空间驱动因素对荷兰物流发展的相对影响。我们明确评估了旨在刺激物流增长的政府政策的作用。我们发现,在所有物流类别中,高速公路和铁路的可达性、与消费者和城市地区的接近程度、土地可用性以及与其他物流企业的接近程度等因素都会产生积极影响,而限制性分区措施则会产生消极影响。相反,诸如通往海港和货运站、城市吸引力和地价等因素的影响则更具差异性,并随物流功能和规模的不同而变化。最后,我们的分析还揭示了物流增长刺激空间政策的积极影响。利用我们估算的参数,我们还绘制了预测概率图,以确定未来潜在的物流发展地点。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of shipping accident patterns among commercial and non-commercial vessels operating in ice-infested waters in Arctic Canada from 1990 to 2022 1990 年至 2022 年在加拿大北极冰封水域运营的商业和非商业船只航运事故模式分析
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104046
Adrian Nicoll , Jackie Dawson , Jérôme Marty , Luke Copland , Michael Sawada
Over the past two decades, the Canadian Arctic has experienced a marked reduction in sea ice extent, coinciding with a significant rise in ship traffic. This study explores the relationship between ship traffic, shipping accidents, accident rates, and diminishing sea ice from 1990 to 2022 during the shipping season. The findings reveal that ship traffic has increased substantially along major Arctic routes, such as the Hudson Strait, Baffin Island, and the Northwest Passage, driven by the consistent decline in sea ice. Despite this rise in traffic, accident rates for commercial vessels, particularly General Cargo and Tanker ships, have significantly decreased, suggesting that current safety measures may be effective. However, the study also uncovered a significant positive correlation between all vessel accidents and sea ice concentration, indicating that certain ice conditions still pose substantial risks to vessels. Additionally, passenger vessel traffic has shown a notable positive correlation with accidents, pointing to emerging risks in the region. Non-commercial vessels, such as fishing vessels, have demonstrated stable accident rates, though they remain understudied. These results underscore the complexity of Arctic maritime operations in the face of climate change and highlight the urgent need for adaptive strategies, continuous monitoring, and targeted policy interventions to ensure the safety and sustainability of future Arctic shipping.
在过去的二十年里,加拿大北极地区的海冰范围明显缩小,与此同时,船舶交通量却大幅上升。本研究探讨了 1990 年至 2022 年航运季节船舶交通、航运事故、事故率和海冰减少之间的关系。研究结果表明,受海冰持续减少的影响,哈德逊海峡、巴芬岛和西北航道等北极主要航道沿线的船舶交通量大幅增加。尽管交通量增加,但商船,尤其是普通货船和油轮的事故率却大幅下降,这表明当前的安全措施可能是有效的。不过,研究还发现,所有船只事故与海冰浓度之间存在显著的正相关关系,这表明某些冰情仍对船只构成巨大风险。此外,客船交通与事故之间也存在明显的正相关关系,这表明该地区正在出现新的风险。渔船等非商业船只的事故率保持稳定,但对它们的研究仍然不足。这些结果凸显了北极海运业务在气候变化面前的复杂性,并强调迫切需要适应性战略、持续监测和有针对性的政策干预,以确保未来北极航运的安全性和可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
The territorial impacts of BlaBlaCar carpooling: Between metropolitan polarization, intermediate cities' structuration, and rural services BlaBlaCar 拼车的地域影响:大都市两极分化、中间城市结构化与农村服务之间的关系
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104041
Magali Talandier, Sylvestre Duroudier, Isabelle André-Poyaud, Sonia Chardonnel, Estelle Ployon
Often promoted by planning and transportation authorities as one of the principal ways to reduce the impact of mobility on transportation gas emissions, carpooling practices have increased over recent decades for daily commuting as well as long-distance travel. However, mainly due to the lack of data, little is known about the geography of these trips. On the one hand, the intensity of supply and demand may favor urban areas alongside common transportation systems. On the other hand, the scarcity of public transport in rural areas or small towns can support the growth of these shared mobilities.
This article presents a geographical investigation of carpooling patterns in France and to overcome the lack of survey-data, it proposes an original method based on massive data collected from the Blablacar platform, national leader for this type of online services. After a review of the literature, the paper presents the main elements of the methodology implemented to collect and analyze the web data of carpooling. The analysis presents new findings that reveal the geographical features of car-sharing in France. The impact varies depending on the size of the towns, the presence of regional and inter-regional urban systems, and the tourism specialization of rural areas. The study also emphasizes the unique position of Paris and the pivotal role of intermediate towns.
近几十年来,在日常通勤和长途旅行中,拼车的做法越来越多,规划和交通部门经常将其作为减少交通对运输气体排放影响的主要方法之一加以推广。然而,主要由于缺乏数据,人们对这些出行的地理分布知之甚少。一方面,供需的强度可能有利于拥有共同交通系统的城市地区。本文对法国的拼车模式进行了地理调查,并提出了一种基于从 Blablacar 平台收集的海量数据的原创方法,该平台是此类在线服务的全国领导者。在对文献进行回顾后,本文介绍了收集和分析拼车网络数据方法的主要内容。分析结果揭示了法国汽车共享的地理特征。其影响因城镇规模、地区和地区间城市系统的存在以及农村地区的旅游专业化而异。研究还强调了巴黎的独特地位和中间城镇的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
Spatial scale effects of transportation, social and natural attributes of street environments on perceived activity opportunities for older adults 街道环境的交通、社会和自然属性对老年人感知活动机会的空间尺度影响
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104045
Ruina Han , Dongfeng Yang
The street environment correlates with perceived activity opportunities for older adults. While numerous studies have examined the transportation and social attributes of street environments, the natural attributes have been less explored. Furthermore, the nonlinear relationship between the street environment and perceived activity opportunities across different spatial scales remains under-researched. We hypothesize that transportation, social, and natural attributes influence perceived activity opportunities, and their nonlinear effects vary across spatial scales. Therefore, we used activity survey data and multi-source big data from Dalian, China. Employing gradient boosted decision tree (GBDT) methods, we evaluated the nonlinear correlation between the street environment and perceived activity opportunities. Our study considered three community life circle scales: 5-min, 10-min, and 15-min. The results indicated that street features varied significantly at different spatial scales. Specifically, factors such as density of street network, diversity of street interface, distance to the nearest public transport station, accessibility of green space, diversion ratio, and distance to the nearest blue space notably influence perceived activity opportunities across these scales. The study also found that the nonlinear correlations between street environments and perceived activity opportunities were prevalent and varied across spatial scales. These results suggest that priorities for street environment improvements should account for these spatial scale variations. Our research provides multi-scale recommendations for the development of sustainable transportation, age-friendly communities, and the promotion of aging in place.
街道环境与老年人感知到的活动机会相关。虽然许多研究都对街道环境的交通和社会属性进行了研究,但对自然属性的研究却较少。此外,对于不同空间尺度的街道环境与感知到的活动机会之间的非线性关系,研究仍然不足。我们假设,交通、社会和自然属性会影响人们感知到的活动机会,而它们在不同空间尺度上的非线性效应也各不相同。因此,我们使用了中国大连的活动调查数据和多源大数据。利用梯度提升决策树(GBDT)方法,我们评估了街道环境与感知活动机会之间的非线性相关性。我们的研究考虑了三种社区生活圈尺度:5 分钟、10 分钟和 15 分钟。结果表明,街道特征在不同的空间尺度上存在显著差异。具体来说,街道网络的密度、街道界面的多样性、与最近的公共交通站的距离、绿地的可达性、分流比率以及与最近的蓝地的距离等因素在这些尺度上对感知到的活动机会有着明显的影响。研究还发现,街道环境与感知到的活动机会之间普遍存在非线性相关关系,并且在不同的空间尺度上存在差异。这些结果表明,街道环境改善的优先级应考虑这些空间尺度的变化。我们的研究为发展可持续交通、老年友好社区和促进居家养老提供了多尺度建议。
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引用次数: 0
Inter-regional rail travel and housing markets connectedness between London and other regions 伦敦与其他地区之间的跨地区铁路旅行和住房市场联系
IF 5.7 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.104044
I-Chun Tsai
Taking London as a location with which to measure the ripple effect in the UK housing market, this study aims to explain and verify the high degree of correlation between inter-regional transportation and the regional correlation of the housing market. Based on the literature on the relationship between short-term mobility and long-term migration, this paper illustrates that the extent to which people use trains for travel across regions will be related to the ripple effect in the regional housing markets. Frequent railway transport behavior, whether for commuting or traveling, might increase people's desire to relocate between regions, and thus leading to information transmission effects across regional housing prices and transaction volume. First, we estimate a dynamic indicator for the ripple effect. Then, the empirical tests use panel data, including the ripple indicator and passenger number data across time (1996–2022) and regions (nine regions). It is found that if London house prices drive other regional house prices to rise, inter-regional transportation demand will increase, and in turn, the increase of house prices in other housing markets will again drive up London house prices. The number of passengers will affect the information transmitted by the housing market transaction volume in other regions to the London housing market. This implies that higher inter-regional transport needs may lead to migration between London and other property markets, causing their transaction volumes to change in the same direction. The results of this paper verify that travel behavior between regions is a crucial factor in the leading/lagging behavior of regional housing market performance, implying a relationship between short-term travel and long-term migration. The results also indicate that incorporating variables of housing market correlations may help in the prediction of passenger numbers or transportation demand.
本研究以伦敦作为衡量英国住房市场涟漪效应的地点,旨在解释和验证区域间交通与住房市场区域相关性之间的高度相关性。根据有关短期流动与长期迁移之间关系的文献,本文说明了人们使用火车进行跨区域旅行的程度将与区域住房市场的涟漪效应相关。频繁的铁路运输行为,无论是通勤还是旅行,都可能增加人们在区域间迁移的意愿,从而导致跨区域房价和交易量的信息传递效应。首先,我们估算了涟漪效应的动态指标。然后,利用面板数据进行实证检验,包括跨时间(1996-2022 年)和跨地区(9 个地区)的波纹指标和乘客数量数据。结果发现,如果伦敦房价带动其他地区房价上涨,地区间运输需求就会增加,反过来,其他住房市场的房价上涨又会带动伦敦房价上涨。乘客数量会影响其他地区住房市场交易量向伦敦住房市场传递的信息。这意味着,区域间交通需求的增加可能会导致伦敦与其他房地产市场之间的迁移,使其交易量发生同向变化。本文的研究结果验证了区域间的旅行行为是影响区域房地产市场表现的领先/滞后行为的关键因素,这意味着短期旅行与长期迁移之间存在关系。结果还表明,纳入住房市场相关变量可能有助于预测旅客人数或运输需求。
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Journal of Transport Geography
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