Amid intensifying debates over infrastructural megaprojects in Africa, this research evaluates the spatial and economic implications of competing railway investment strategies in Kenya: construction of the Chinese-funded Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) and the refurbishment of the legacy Metre Gauge Railway (MGR). Drawing on the geography of infrastructure-led development and transport cost-benefit theory, the study applies scenario-based stochastic Net Present Value (NPV) framework to assess the long-term viability and spatial returns of each strategy under fiscal/political uncertainty. The stochastic NPV process is enhanced with Monte Carlo simulations and spatial interaction models. Using official revenue, cost data and Kenya Railways/statistical sources on travel times, the analysis computes ticketing monetary returns and monetises passenger time savings and freight logistics time savings using a Kenya-relevant hourly salary and freight value of time informed by ad-valorem evidence. Parameters are calibrated with national and port-related flow data. Carbon reduction benefits are also monetised as positive externalities within the same simulations using mode-specific emission factors and a Kenya-specific carbon price. Results indicate that while the SGR holds greater potential for transformative regional integration and freight-driven growth, it is highly sensitive to political instability, discount rates, and freight volume assumptions. In contrast, the MGR delivers more stable, though modest, returns across scenarios, with lower financial and geopolitical risk. Data transparency is strengthened by reporting comprehensive NPV parameter settings in the Appendix. Findings underscore a fundamental spatial policy trade-off between transformative railway development and incremental connectivity improvement, and offer practical insights for risk-sensitive corridor planning across the Global South.
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