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Trip generation dynamics under the introduction of shared mobility
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104135
Vasiliki Kalliga, Santhanakrishnan Narayanan, Constantinos Antoniou
The travel behavior of individuals is significantly influenced by the built environment and travel facilities, impacting trip frequency, destination, and duration. This study aims to explore how these effects vary across different socioeconomic groups, particularly considering gender differences, and how individuals engage with state-of-the-art transport modes such as shared vehicles and bicycles during various stages of their life cycle. Using data from the 2018 Madrid (Spain) Travel Survey, we analyze the differential responsiveness to changes in trip frequency across different traffic zones. Notably, the inner ring provides access to shared vehicles and bicycles. We construct four multinomial logit models for distinct origin-destination trip types (inner-inner, inner-outer, outer-inner, outer-outer). Our findings reveal common factors influencing the decision to initiate new trips, including age group, mode choice, trip reason, occupation, and importantly, gender. A policy analysis indicates that individuals residing in the inner ring exhibit a heightened sensitivity to their life cycle, particularly in the context of gender, impacting their decision-making regarding new trips.
{"title":"Trip generation dynamics under the introduction of shared mobility","authors":"Vasiliki Kalliga, Santhanakrishnan Narayanan, Constantinos Antoniou","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104135","url":null,"abstract":"The travel behavior of individuals is significantly influenced by the built environment and travel facilities, impacting trip frequency, destination, and duration. This study aims to explore how these effects vary across different socioeconomic groups, particularly considering gender differences, and how individuals engage with state-of-the-art transport modes such as shared vehicles and bicycles during various stages of their life cycle. Using data from the 2018 Madrid (Spain) Travel Survey, we analyze the differential responsiveness to changes in trip frequency across different traffic zones. Notably, the inner ring provides access to shared vehicles and bicycles. We construct four multinomial logit models for distinct origin-destination trip types (inner-inner, inner-outer, outer-inner, outer-outer). Our findings reveal common factors influencing the decision to initiate new trips, including age group, mode choice, trip reason, occupation, and importantly, gender. A policy analysis indicates that individuals residing in the inner ring exhibit a heightened sensitivity to their life cycle, particularly in the context of gender, impacting their decision-making regarding new trips.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Changes in the distance of interprovincial coal transportation in China and its effect on carbon emissions
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104139
Yiqing Guo, Xiyan Mao, Jianing Wei, Mingyang Liu, Yiqi Chen, Jie Zhou
The spatial mismatch between coal production and consumption has led to long-distance coal transportation in China, which poses a challenge for balancing the trade-off between carbon reduction and energy security. In response, the spatial restructuring of long-distance transportation and how it contributes to carbon emissions are investigated. The Doubly Constrained Gravity Model is used to estimate the interprovincial coal transportation matrices from 1996 to 2019 and thus measure the coal transportation inflow and outflow radii of provinces and their corresponding carbon emissions. The results show that (1) the inflow radius supports a north-south division of provinces, with a pattern centered on Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The outflow radius supports a coastal-inland division of provinces, with a pattern centered on the Yangtze River Delta region. Overall, the spatial extent of the coal supply in most provinces is shrinking, whereas the extent of demand is expanding. (2) Carbon emissions from coal transportation have increased with the westward shift in coal sources. The interprovincial transportation routes with the highest emissions display a radial pattern, shifting from monocentric to polycentric. (3) An increasing inflow radius suggests a demand-driven emission effect on provinces with advanced manufacturing bases, which have more emissions because of their demand gap. The decreasing outflow radius suggests a supply-driven emission effect. As provinces reduce their coal supply capacity, coal production bases should fill the demand gap, resulting in increased coal transportation emissions.
{"title":"Changes in the distance of interprovincial coal transportation in China and its effect on carbon emissions","authors":"Yiqing Guo, Xiyan Mao, Jianing Wei, Mingyang Liu, Yiqi Chen, Jie Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104139","url":null,"abstract":"The spatial mismatch between coal production and consumption has led to long-distance coal transportation in China, which poses a challenge for balancing the trade-off between carbon reduction and energy security. In response, the spatial restructuring of long-distance transportation and how it contributes to carbon emissions are investigated. The Doubly Constrained Gravity Model is used to estimate the interprovincial coal transportation matrices from 1996 to 2019 and thus measure the coal transportation inflow and outflow radii of provinces and their corresponding carbon emissions. The results show that (1) the inflow radius supports a north-south division of provinces, with a pattern centered on Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia. The outflow radius supports a coastal-inland division of provinces, with a pattern centered on the Yangtze River Delta region. Overall, the spatial extent of the coal supply in most provinces is shrinking, whereas the extent of demand is expanding. (2) Carbon emissions from coal transportation have increased with the westward shift in coal sources. The interprovincial transportation routes with the highest emissions display a radial pattern, shifting from monocentric to polycentric. (3) An increasing inflow radius suggests a demand-driven emission effect on provinces with advanced manufacturing bases, which have more emissions because of their demand gap. The decreasing outflow radius suggests a supply-driven emission effect. As provinces reduce their coal supply capacity, coal production bases should fill the demand gap, resulting in increased coal transportation emissions.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"70 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Unveiling inequalities: The intersection of gender and income in accessibility in Curitiba, Brazil
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104136
Agnes Silva de Araujo, Jaqueline Massucheto, Geisa Tamara Bugs, Marcus Vinícius Pereira Saraiva, Fábio Duarte
This research investigates accessibility inequalities in Curitiba, Brazil, employing an intersectional analysis of gender and income groups within the urban context. We utilized an Agent-based model (AxS model) to generate artificial trajectories from the Origin-Destination (OD) survey aggregated dataset and calculate individual accessibility metrics. The findings reveal that, overall, men have greater accessibility to opportunities than women in Curitiba. The exception is in income class A (the highest), where women tend to travel shorter, more central routes and use cars more frequently, leading to higher accessibility. However, women in other income groups (lower income) face lower accessibility than their male counterparts, largely due to living in peripheral areas with fewer local opportunities and being more dependent on slower transport modes such as public transportation and walking to access these opportunities. The gender accessibility gap widens notably as income decreases, showing the significance of intersectionality of income and gender factors. Counterfactual simulations revealed that the choice of transport modes has a greater impact on women's individual accessibility than the distances traveled. The discussion emphasizes the need for mixed land use in peripheral areas and improvements on public transportation to ensure extensive coverage and reduce travel times to mitigate the effects of gender and income inequalities. This research contributes to studies on gender-sensitive urban planning, providing insights for policymakers and urban researchers seeking to foster inclusivity and equality in transportation systems and spatial development.
{"title":"Unveiling inequalities: The intersection of gender and income in accessibility in Curitiba, Brazil","authors":"Agnes Silva de Araujo, Jaqueline Massucheto, Geisa Tamara Bugs, Marcus Vinícius Pereira Saraiva, Fábio Duarte","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104136","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104136","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates accessibility inequalities in Curitiba, Brazil, employing an intersectional analysis of gender and income groups within the urban context. We utilized an Agent-based model (AxS model) to generate artificial trajectories from the Origin-Destination (OD) survey aggregated dataset and calculate individual accessibility metrics. The findings reveal that, overall, men have greater accessibility to opportunities than women in Curitiba. The exception is in income class A (the highest), where women tend to travel shorter, more central routes and use cars more frequently, leading to higher accessibility. However, women in other income groups (lower income) face lower accessibility than their male counterparts, largely due to living in peripheral areas with fewer local opportunities and being more dependent on slower transport modes such as public transportation and walking to access these opportunities. The gender accessibility gap widens notably as income decreases, showing the significance of intersectionality of income and gender factors. Counterfactual simulations revealed that the choice of transport modes has a greater impact on women's individual accessibility than the distances traveled. The discussion emphasizes the need for mixed land use in peripheral areas and improvements on public transportation to ensure extensive coverage and reduce travel times to mitigate the effects of gender and income inequalities. This research contributes to studies on gender-sensitive urban planning, providing insights for policymakers and urban researchers seeking to foster inclusivity and equality in transportation systems and spatial development.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"77 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077642","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Understanding inequalities in geographic accessibility to emergency cyclone shelters in Bangladesh under climate change
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104134
Naser Ahmed, Jesmin Jui, Dong Liu, Kyusik Kim, Junghwan Kim, Jinhyung Lee
This research aims to explore inequalities in geographic accessibility to emergency cyclone shelters in Bangladesh, a country in the Global South that is prone to natural disasters. We begin by quantifying the walking time to the nearest cyclone shelters as a basic measure of accessibility. Additionally, we compute a more practical measure of accessibility by considering crowding effects in shelters due to the interactions between supply (e.g., shelter capacity) and demand (e.g., population levels) using the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. Using these accessibility measures as a basis, we examine accessibility inequalities through the Gini index. Furthermore, we perform a statistical analysis with an equity lens to examine whether marginalized populations are disproportionately located in underserved areas with limited accessibility. The results reveal substantial inequalities in 2SFCA-based cyclone shelter accessibility across different regions. The statistical analysis results show that seniors, females, individuals with physical disabilities, and religious minorities are disproportionately located in areas where walking time to the nearest shelters exceeds the government guideline of 20 min. This study is one of the first attempts to understand the inequalities in geographic accessibility to emergency cyclone shelters in an under-examined low- and middle-income country (LMIC) in the Global South such as Bangladesh. By shedding light on the inequalities faced in accessing these critical facilities, our research contributes to the broader understanding of human mobility and accessibility in response to the increasing intensity and frequency of unexpected disruption events in the context of climate change.
{"title":"Understanding inequalities in geographic accessibility to emergency cyclone shelters in Bangladesh under climate change","authors":"Naser Ahmed, Jesmin Jui, Dong Liu, Kyusik Kim, Junghwan Kim, Jinhyung Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104134","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104134","url":null,"abstract":"This research aims to explore inequalities in geographic accessibility to emergency cyclone shelters in Bangladesh, a country in the Global South that is prone to natural disasters. We begin by quantifying the walking time to the nearest cyclone shelters as a basic measure of accessibility. Additionally, we compute a more practical measure of accessibility by considering crowding effects in shelters due to the interactions between supply (e.g., shelter capacity) and demand (e.g., population levels) using the two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method. Using these accessibility measures as a basis, we examine accessibility inequalities through the Gini index. Furthermore, we perform a statistical analysis with an equity lens to examine whether marginalized populations are disproportionately located in underserved areas with limited accessibility. The results reveal substantial inequalities in 2SFCA-based cyclone shelter accessibility across different regions. The statistical analysis results show that seniors, females, individuals with physical disabilities, and religious minorities are disproportionately located in areas where walking time to the nearest shelters exceeds the government guideline of 20 min. This study is one of the first attempts to understand the inequalities in geographic accessibility to emergency cyclone shelters in an under-examined low- and middle-income country (LMIC) in the Global South such as Bangladesh. By shedding light on the inequalities faced in accessing these critical facilities, our research contributes to the broader understanding of human mobility and accessibility in response to the increasing intensity and frequency of unexpected disruption events in the context of climate change.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077643","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Adaptive scootability index: Built environment, travel purpose and e-scooter preferred route
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104117
Shuting Chen, Zhejing Cao, Xiaohu Zhang
E-scooter sharing has gained popularity globally. While previous research has explored the relationship between e-scooter usage and the built environment, scant attention has been devoted to evaluating how the built environment affects e-scooter route choices with different trip purposes. This study thus proposes an analytical framework to examine e-scooter route preferences across diverse trip purposes and develops an adaptive scootability index using ensemble feature weighting. By analyzing 161,426 e-scooter GPS trajectories from Brisbane and Christchurch, we found e-scooter sharing was mainly used for non-commuting trips (e.g. dining, leisure). The computation of adaptive scootability index revealed that e-scooter route preferences did vary with trip purposes. For instance, e-scooter trips to access public transit are more direct and favor streets of higher hierarchy, while leisure trips prefer scenic routes with gardens and abundant greenery. Finally, the mapping of scootability can help identify streets that require enhancements to promote e-scooter related travels.
{"title":"Adaptive scootability index: Built environment, travel purpose and e-scooter preferred route","authors":"Shuting Chen, Zhejing Cao, Xiaohu Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104117","url":null,"abstract":"<ce:italic>E</ce:italic>-scooter sharing has gained popularity globally. While previous research has explored the relationship between e-scooter usage and the built environment, scant attention has been devoted to evaluating how the built environment affects e-scooter route choices with different trip purposes. This study thus proposes an analytical framework to examine e-scooter route preferences across diverse trip purposes and develops an adaptive scootability index using ensemble feature weighting. By analyzing 161,426 e-scooter GPS trajectories from Brisbane and Christchurch, we found e-scooter sharing was mainly used for non-commuting trips (e.g. dining, leisure). The computation of adaptive scootability index revealed that e-scooter route preferences did vary with trip purposes. For instance, e-scooter trips to access public transit are more direct and favor streets of higher hierarchy, while leisure trips prefer scenic routes with gardens and abundant greenery. Finally, the mapping of scootability can help identify streets that require enhancements to promote e-scooter related travels.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring the effect of new urban expressway on travel time
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104128
Tianjiao Chen, Luliang Tang, Zilong Zhao, Hong Yang, Xiaogang Guo, Hongyu Shi
Urban expressways are one of the largest infrastructure investment projects in cities. Nevertheless, the impact of expressway construction on alleviating travel time has long been controversial. The conventional approach calculates travel time utilizing origin-destination (OD) flow from taxi trajectory data. However, OD flow typically overlooks data scarcity and individual choices, resulting in biased travel time estimates. This study proposes a novel method for travel time estimation based on path flow that considers the real space-time paths and driving directions. Subsequently, we employ the difference-in-differences approach to assess the effect of expressway construction on travel time. Experiments performed in Wuhan, China, indicate that expressway construction has a substantial impact on reducing travel time, exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this effect. Moreover, the built environment notably influences travel time. These findings offer valuable insights for urban planners and transportation policymakers to aid in the development of pertinent policies.
{"title":"Exploring the effect of new urban expressway on travel time","authors":"Tianjiao Chen, Luliang Tang, Zilong Zhao, Hong Yang, Xiaogang Guo, Hongyu Shi","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104128","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104128","url":null,"abstract":"Urban expressways are one of the largest infrastructure investment projects in cities. Nevertheless, the impact of expressway construction on alleviating travel time has long been controversial. The conventional approach calculates travel time utilizing origin-destination (OD) flow from taxi trajectory data. However, OD flow typically overlooks data scarcity and individual choices, resulting in biased travel time estimates. This study proposes a novel method for travel time estimation based on path flow that considers the real space-time paths and driving directions. Subsequently, we employ the difference-in-differences approach to assess the effect of expressway construction on travel time. Experiments performed in Wuhan, China, indicate that expressway construction has a substantial impact on reducing travel time, exhibiting considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in this effect. Moreover, the built environment notably influences travel time. These findings offer valuable insights for urban planners and transportation policymakers to aid in the development of pertinent policies.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"39 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143077665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Shipping decarbonization and public emergencies: How does COVID-19 impact container shipping carbon emissions?
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104124
Zhaopei Tang, Liehui Wang
Shipping carbon emissions is becoming increasingly susceptible to emergency events, with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exerting one of the most long-lasting effects. Clarifying the impact of COVID-19 on shipping carbon emissions is crucial for reducing and decarbonizing the shipping industry and controlling global climate change. This study utilizes the automatic identification system and socio-economic data to measure global containerized carbon emissions with the help of the bottom-up method, explores the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions based on the “global-regional-national-port” multi-scale, and conducts empirical tests with the help of the between-within model. Globally, container shipping carbon emissions increased over 50 % compared with those of 2019, with four spatial hotpots. Regionally, carbon emissions increased most significantly in the Panama Canal, Strait of Gibraltar, and Black Sea Strait. On a national scale, the differences in carbon emissions from containerized maritime transport between countries have narrowed compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, with head country primacy decreasing. At the port level, the effects of COVID-19 show significant heterogeneity: emissions decreased at the ports in Northern Europe but increased in Asian. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the origin or destination country significantly increased container shipping carbon emissions, with variations depending on geographical locations and economic development levels.
{"title":"Shipping decarbonization and public emergencies: How does COVID-19 impact container shipping carbon emissions?","authors":"Zhaopei Tang, Liehui Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104124","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104124","url":null,"abstract":"Shipping carbon emissions is becoming increasingly susceptible to emergency events, with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exerting one of the most long-lasting effects. Clarifying the impact of COVID-19 on shipping carbon emissions is crucial for reducing and decarbonizing the shipping industry and controlling global climate change. This study utilizes the automatic identification system and socio-economic data to measure global containerized carbon emissions with the help of the bottom-up method, explores the impact of COVID-19 on carbon emissions based on the “global-regional-national-port” multi-scale, and conducts empirical tests with the help of the between-within model. Globally, container shipping carbon emissions increased over 50 % compared with those of 2019, with four spatial hotpots. Regionally, carbon emissions increased most significantly in the Panama Canal, Strait of Gibraltar, and Black Sea Strait. On a national scale, the differences in carbon emissions from containerized maritime transport between countries have narrowed compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak, with head country primacy decreasing. At the port level, the effects of COVID-19 show significant heterogeneity: emissions decreased at the ports in Northern Europe but increased in Asian. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the origin or destination country significantly increased container shipping carbon emissions, with variations depending on geographical locations and economic development levels.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"3 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143035309","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Nonlinearities and threshold points in the effect of contextual features on the spatial and temporal variability of bus use in Beijing using explainable machine learning: Predictable or uncertain trips?
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104126
Sui Tao, Francisco Rowe, Hongyu Shan
In pursuing sustainable transport, understanding the dynamics of transit passengers' travel demand is necessary for establishing more attractive public transport relative to cars. However, to what extent daily transit use displays geographic and temporal variabilities or predictability, and identifying what are the contributing factors explaining these patterns have not been fully addressed. Drawing on smart card data in Beijing, China, this study adopts new indices to capture the spatial and temporal variability of bus use during peak hours and investigates their associations with relevant contextual features. Using explainable machine learning, our findings reveal non-linearities and threshold points in the spatial and temporal variability of bus trips as a function of trip frequency. Greater distance to the urban centres (>10 km) is associated with increased spatial variability of bus use, while greater separation of trip origins and destinations from the subcentres reduces both spatial and temporal variability reflecting highly predictable of trips. Higher availability of bus routes is linked to higher spatial variability but lower temporal variability. Meanwhile, both lower and higher road density is associated with higher spatial variability of bus use especially in morning times. These findings indicate that different built environment features moderate the flexibility of choosing travel time and locations influencing the predictability of trips. Understanding highly predictable trips is key to develop more effective planning and operation of public transport.
{"title":"Nonlinearities and threshold points in the effect of contextual features on the spatial and temporal variability of bus use in Beijing using explainable machine learning: Predictable or uncertain trips?","authors":"Sui Tao, Francisco Rowe, Hongyu Shan","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104126","url":null,"abstract":"In pursuing sustainable transport, understanding the dynamics of transit passengers' travel demand is necessary for establishing more attractive public transport relative to cars. However, to what extent daily transit use displays geographic and temporal variabilities or predictability, and identifying what are the contributing factors explaining these patterns have not been fully addressed. Drawing on smart card data in Beijing, China, this study adopts new indices to capture the spatial and temporal variability of bus use during peak hours and investigates their associations with relevant contextual features. Using explainable machine learning, our findings reveal non-linearities and threshold points in the spatial and temporal variability of bus trips as a function of trip frequency. Greater distance to the urban centres (&gt;10 km) is associated with increased spatial variability of bus use, while greater separation of trip origins and destinations from the subcentres reduces both spatial and temporal variability reflecting highly predictable of trips. Higher availability of bus routes is linked to higher spatial variability but lower temporal variability. Meanwhile, both lower and higher road density is associated with higher spatial variability of bus use especially in morning times. These findings indicate that different built environment features moderate the flexibility of choosing travel time and locations influencing the predictability of trips. Understanding highly predictable trips is key to develop more effective planning and operation of public transport.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143035310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
When digital disadvantage meets transport disadvantage: The association between smartphone-based mobility services and perceived transport disadvantage among the elderly
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104119
Enyu Chang, Min Zhang, Zhixuan Li, Yuchen Hu
The barriers and unequal distribution of smartphone-based mobility services (SMS) among disadvantaged populations, particularly the elderly, have received growing interest in transport studies. However, insufficient attention has been paid to how access to and use of SMS translate into specific outcomes in the travel domain. Taking perceived transportation disadvantage as the outcome, this study examines its relationship with access and usage of SMS within elderly people using data from a recent survey in Nanjing, China. Specifically, the study compares the differences between local elderly and migrant elderly populations. The findings show firstly that the association between access to SMS and transport disadvantage is not significant, while the usage of SMS is significantly negatively associated with transport disadvantage. Secondly, the relationships between SMS use and transport disadvantage vary according to different types of SMS, among which transport information services play a more significant role. Thirdly, immigrant attributes play a moderating role in the relationship between SMS and transport disadvantage, indicating that SMS is more effective in alleviating transport disadvantage among the migrant elderly compared with local elderly populations. The study contributes to the field of transport equity and digital mobility services by implying that SMS use has the potential to mitigate transport disadvantage, particularly for migrant elderly groups. To optimize the effectiveness of SMS in improving elderly mobility, efforts should prioritize promoting the usage of SMS among the elderly population rather than focusing only on increasing smartphone access.
{"title":"When digital disadvantage meets transport disadvantage: The association between smartphone-based mobility services and perceived transport disadvantage among the elderly","authors":"Enyu Chang, Min Zhang, Zhixuan Li, Yuchen Hu","doi":"10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104119","url":null,"abstract":"The barriers and unequal distribution of smartphone-based mobility services (SMS) among disadvantaged populations, particularly the elderly, have received growing interest in transport studies. However, insufficient attention has been paid to how access to and use of SMS translate into specific outcomes in the travel domain. Taking perceived transportation disadvantage as the outcome, this study examines its relationship with access and usage of SMS within elderly people using data from a recent survey in Nanjing, China. Specifically, the study compares the differences between local elderly and migrant elderly populations. The findings show firstly that the association between access to SMS and transport disadvantage is not significant, while the usage of SMS is significantly negatively associated with transport disadvantage. Secondly, the relationships between SMS use and transport disadvantage vary according to different types of SMS, among which transport information services play a more significant role. Thirdly, immigrant attributes play a moderating role in the relationship between SMS and transport disadvantage, indicating that SMS is more effective in alleviating transport disadvantage among the migrant elderly compared with local elderly populations. The study contributes to the field of transport equity and digital mobility services by implying that SMS use has the potential to mitigate transport disadvantage, particularly for migrant elderly groups. To optimize the effectiveness of SMS in improving elderly mobility, efforts should prioritize promoting the usage of SMS among the elderly population rather than focusing only on increasing smartphone access.","PeriodicalId":48413,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Transport Geography","volume":"120 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143035311","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Does adolescent experience influence mobility later in life? A propensity score matching approach
IF 6.1 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2025.104129
Erik B. Lunke
While research shows that car restrictions and investments in sustainable transport infrastructure reduces car use, less is known about the influence of social norms and childhood experiences in shaping mobility behaviour. This study examines the impact of growing up in a car-owning household on car ownership later in life, utilizing Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and longitudinal registry data from Norway. The analysis reveals that experiences in the parental household at age 18 significantly influence car ownership in adulthood (at age 30), with a modest effect size of 4–5 %, after controlling for sociodemographic and neighbourhood factors. These findings suggest that traditional policy measures aimed at reducing car use may need to be complemented by public awareness campaigns to address deeply ingrained mobility behaviors shaped by early life experiences.
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Journal of Transport Geography
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