Projected effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on global forest products markets

Abstract

This study provided an insight into the projected short-term (<10 years) and long-term (next 10 to 30 years) effects of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine on global forest products trade and associated markets. The assessment was conducted by comparing the projected outcomes from the Global Forest Products Market (GFPM) model for a business-as-usual reference (no invasion) scenario and an alternate scenario representing the current trade sanctions for Russian wood products trade by several major partner countries, and the potential trade disruption in Ukraine due to their military operations, during the 2021–2025 period, and no such trade restrictions thereafter assuming the Russian invasion ends by that time. Results indicate a considerable projected short-term disruption in the Russian, Ukrainian, and the global wood products sector in terms of higher prices of industrial roundwood and finished wood products (up to 3%) and altered production, consumption and trade displacement for wood products. However, in the long run, a lower overall disruption is projected as Russian markets for industrial roundwood and sawnwood start to recover and the global markets begin to converge to pre-invasion levels. The analysis also projects that Russian markets for wood-based panels and paper and paperboard and Ukrainian markets for paper and paperboard do not recover within the next 30 years, suggesting a likely permanent structural change in markets of these wood product groups. These findings suggest several economic and environmental implications for the forest products sector in Russia, Ukraine and the rest of the world in the near- and long-term.