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Reviewing factors that influence voluntary participation in conservation programs in Latin America 审查影响拉丁美洲自愿参与保护计划的因素
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103359
Understanding the drivers of participation in conservation programs is essential for successful efforts to preserve nature in Latin America. By identifying these factors, we can bolster the long-term effectiveness of such initiatives in the region, particularly given that much of the biodiversity resides on private lands. Whereas extensive research has explored landowner participation in developed countries, variations in socio-economic, environmental, and governance contexts pose unique challenges across developed and less-developed nations. Moreover, discrepancies in research criteria suggest the need for a comprehensive conceptual model to identify and summarize these factors. Following a systematic literature review, we examine and summarize the various factors that influence voluntary participation in conservation-related programs across Latin America. We searched for studies using Web of Science from January 2000 to July 2022, resulting in the screening of 31 peer-reviewed articles. We categorized factors into opportunity, willingness, and ability to participate. Within the willingness category, we considered factors related to intrinsic and extrinsic motivations, while the ability category covered factors related to financial, social, human, natural, and physical capital. We extracted factors reported as having either a positive or negative influence on participation. Our analysis revealed a balanced focus on factors related to both willingness and ability, with a noted gap in the evaluation of social capital. Notably, our adapted conceptual framework encompasses institutional capital within the ability category, enhancing the understanding of factors influencing landowner participation in conservation initiatives.
了解参与保护计划的驱动因素对于成功保护拉丁美洲的自然环境至关重要。通过识别这些因素,我们可以提高此类计划在该地区的长期有效性,特别是考虑到大部分生物多样性都在私人土地上。虽然已有大量研究探讨了发达国家的土地所有者参与情况,但社会经济、环境和管理背景的差异给发达国家和欠发达国家带来了独特的挑战。此外,研究标准的差异也表明需要一个全面的概念模型来识别和总结这些因素。经过系统的文献回顾,我们研究并总结了影响拉丁美洲自愿参与保护相关计划的各种因素。我们使用科学网搜索了 2000 年 1 月至 2022 年 7 月期间的研究,筛选出 31 篇同行评审文章。我们将因素分为参与机会、参与意愿和参与能力。在意愿类别中,我们考虑了与内在和外在动机相关的因素,而能力类别则涵盖了与财务、社会、人力、自然和物质资本相关的因素。我们提取了对参与有积极或消极影响的因素。我们的分析表明,与意愿和能力相关的因素得到了均衡的关注,但在社会资本评估方面存在明显差距。值得注意的是,我们调整后的概念框架在能力类别中包含了制度资本,从而加深了对影响土地所有者参与保护计划的因素的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Preliminary evidence of softwood shortage and hardwood availability in EU regions: A spatial analysis using the European Forest Industry Database 欧盟地区软木短缺和硬木供应的初步证据:利用欧洲林业数据库进行空间分析
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103358
As the overall demand for wood-based products continues to grow, questions arise on how local wood resources and industry characteristics can effectively meet this growing demand. In the European Union (EU) 550 million m3 of wood is harvested annually, and is to a large extent processed by the wood industry. Little is known about the interplay between industrial capacity and the regional availability of timber resources. We compared the capacities from the European Forest Industry Facilities Database (EUFID) with the estimated wood supply from the procurement areas around processing industries, calculated using a spatially explicit resource model (EFISCEN-Space). We found that the estimated total capacity for the available European countries is 427 M m3 roundwood equivalent (rw. Eq.) for pulp and paper (including both virgin and recycled fibres), 102 M m3 for bioenergy (only bioenergy plants), and 153 M m3 for sawmills. We then conducted an in-depth analysis of three case studies: Norway, the Czech Republic, and Germany. Given the current probability of trees being harvested (excluding disturbances) and the hypothetical optimal grading of the logs, the volume for each assortment type is closely aligned with the current capacity of each industry branch, indicating no overcapacity. We found undersupply of softwood of 3.4 M m3 for the Czech Republic, 1.5 M m3 for Norway, and 3.8 M m3 for Germany. At the same time, in Germany, we found an oversupply of hardwood of 3.0 M m3. Additionally, a substantial amount of biomass graded as bioenergy was found for Germany and the Czech Republic, potentially serving as fuelwood in households. Concerning wood procurement areas, we concluded that a fixed radius of 100 km from the facility limited the availability of raw material procurement, particularly for bioenergy and pulp and paper mills, suggesting that these two product chains use a broader procurement basin than sawlogs. This study provides a high-resolution, spatially explicit modelling methodology for assessing the interaction between potential wood harvest and industrial processing capacity, which can support projections of sustainable development of the forest industry.
随着对人造板产品总体需求的持续增长,人们对当地木材资源和工业特点如何有效满足这一日益增长的需求产生了疑问。在欧盟,每年有 5.5 亿立方米的木材被采伐,并在很大程度上由木材工业进行加工。人们对工业能力与地区木材资源可用性之间的相互作用知之甚少。我们将欧洲森林工业设施数据库(EUFID)中的产能与加工工业周围采购区的估计木材供应量进行了比较,后者是使用空间显式资源模型(EFISCEN-Space)计算得出的。我们发现,现有欧洲国家纸浆和造纸(包括原生纤维和回收纤维)的估计总产能为 4.27 亿立方米圆木当量(rw. Eq.),生物能源(仅生物能源工厂)为 1.02 亿立方米,锯木厂为 1.53 亿立方米。随后,我们对三个案例进行了深入分析:挪威、捷克共和国和德国。考虑到当前树木被采伐的概率(不包括干扰)和原木的假定最佳分级,每种分类类型的产量都与每个行业分支的当前产能密切相关,表明不会出现产能过剩。我们发现,捷克共和国的软木供不应求量为 340 万立方米,挪威为 150 万立方米,德国为 380 万立方米。同时,在德国,我们发现硬木供过于求,达到 300 万立方米。此外,我们还在德国和捷克共和国发现了大量被分级为生物能源的生物质,这些生物质有可能成为家庭的薪材。关于木材采购区域,我们得出的结论是,距离设施 100 公里的固定半径限制了原材料采购的可用性,尤其是对生物能源和纸浆造纸厂而言,这表明这两种产品链使用的采购流域比锯材更广。这项研究提供了一种高分辨率、空间明确的建模方法,用于评估潜在木材采伐量与工业加工能力之间的相互作用,从而为预测森林工业的可持续发展提供支持。
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引用次数: 0
How contracted tree farmers engage in and benefit from inclusive value chains: Evidence from Vietnam 签约树农如何参与包容性价值链并从中受益:来自越南的证据
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103357
In contrast to agricultural crops, long-term tree contract farming (CF) for high-quality timber production under sustainable forest practices contributes to social and economic development, as well as environmental conservation. However, there is limited understanding and insufficient literature on the motivations and benefits of tree growers participating in timber and its associated value chains. This study aims to address these gaps by examining the factors influencing tree grower participation in the tree CF model in Vietnam. We analyzed national panel data of 1272 timber plots in 12 provinces from 2008 to 2018 using penalized maximum likelihood estimation. Additionally, we conducted a local survey of 55 tree producers and stakeholders to compare the household financial performances under the contract versus non-contract and their benefits in the respective value chain. Our findings confirm that households benefit significantly from CF and gain more by delaying harvest for three additional years with forest certification, compared to harvesting timber at year five for woodchips. We recommend increased investment from international and national businesses, as well as government programs, to support tree CF. Future research should explore the roles and impacts of various stakeholders and intervention to better understand and improve tree CF and their inclusive value chains.
与农作物不同,在可持续森林实践下长期开展优质木材生产的林木合同种植(CF)有助于社会和经济发展以及环境保护。然而,人们对林木种植者参与木材及其相关价值链的动机和收益了解有限,相关文献也不足。本研究旨在通过研究影响越南林木种植者参与林木 CF 模式的因素来弥补这些不足。我们使用惩罚最大似然估计法分析了 2008 年至 2018 年 12 个省 1272 块木材地块的全国面板数据。此外,我们还对 55 个树木生产者和利益相关者进行了当地调查,以比较合同与非合同下的家庭财务表现及其在各自价值链中的收益。我们的调查结果表明,与在第五年采伐木片相比,家庭从森林认证中获益匪浅,并且通过森林认证将采伐时间再推迟三年而获得更多收益。我们建议国际和国内企业以及政府项目增加投资,支持树木 CF。未来的研究应探讨各利益相关方的作用和影响,并进行干预,以更好地了解和改进树木 CF 及其包容性价值链。
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引用次数: 0
Outsourcing stumpage price uncertainty with American put option for active timber management1 利用美式看跌期权外包立木采伐价的不确定性,实现积极的木材管理1
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103355
Stumpage price fluctuates all the time, creating price uncertainty for timberland owners and managers in making harvest decisions. As Chang and Zhang (2023) suggested, this price uncertainty could be outsourced with a rolling put option method, i.e., purchasing American put options needed every year to partially cover the stumpage price uncertainty. However, implementing rolling put options every year would be challenging in practice. In this paper, we devise a partial put option method to outsource such uncertainty with just one transaction. Specifically, we outsource stumpage price uncertainty with a partial American put option to determine the option values at different stand ages and calculate the corresponding reservation prices. As soon as the spot price exceeds the reservation price, the high stumpage price triggers an immediate timber harvest. The resulting harvest value and stand age are then incorporated into the generalized Faustmann formula to determine the corresponding land expectation value. Our simulations indicate that, compared to being passive stumpage price takers who ignore the price uncertainty, timberland owners could realize better financial performance with our method. In addition, they could choose the coverage level of partial American put option which suits their own risk preferences to balance uncertainty and return. Once timberland owners start actively selecting the strike price, the overall length of the option, and the level of partial option coverage, they are no longer price takers. Instead, they become price setters. That would bring about a sea change in the stumpage market with profound implications for timber supply and social welfare.
立木价格一直在波动,给林地所有者和管理者的采伐决策带来了价格不确定性。正如 Chang 和 Zhang(2023 年)所建议的,这种价格不确定性可以通过滚动看跌期权法来解决,即每年购买所需的美式看跌期权,以部分覆盖立木价格的不确定性。然而,每年实施滚动看跌期权在实践中具有挑战性。在本文中,我们设计了一种部分看跌期权方法,只需一次交易即可外包这种不确定性。具体来说,我们通过部分美式看跌期权来确定不同树龄下的期权价值,并计算相应的保留价,从而外包立木价格的不确定性。一旦现货价格超过保留价,高立木价格就会立即触发木材采伐。采伐价值和林龄随后被纳入广义福斯特曼公式,以确定相应的土地期望值。我们的模拟结果表明,与忽视价格不确定性的立木采伐价格被动接受者相比,林地所有者可以利用我们的方法实现更好的财务业绩。此外,他们还可以根据自己的风险偏好选择部分美式看跌期权的覆盖水平,以平衡不确定性和收益。一旦林地所有者开始主动选择行权价、期权的总长度和部分期权的覆盖水平,他们就不再是价格的接受者,而是价格的制定者。相反,他们将成为价格制定者。这将给立木市场带来翻天覆地的变化,对木材供应和社会福利产生深远影响。
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引用次数: 0
Forest deliberations: Marteloscopes as sites of encounter between climate activists and forest managers 森林讨论:作为气候活动家和森林管理者交锋场所的马特罗普望远镜
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103356
In recent years, climate change and societal changes have increased the complexity of demands on multifunctional forest management, leading to new lines of conflict. Consequently, public forest management in particular seeks to improve communication and interaction with societal groups with which they previously have not been familiar. In our study, we apply the deliberative model of democracy to assess the suitability of silvicultural training sites (“marteloscopes”) for fostering deliberative communication on multifunctional forest management between foresters and young climate activists. Furthermore, we examine the interpretative frames emerging in this context. We adopt an exploratory study design, using participant observation and group discussions, which we analyze with sequential reconstructive methods. We find that marteloscope exercises generally support dialogue that meets the criteria of deliberate communication. We also observe a noticeable knowledge hierarchy, which presents a potential barrier to open deliberative processes. We identify three main interpretative frames brought by participants that in part challenge dominant forest frames: (1) forests as complex ecosystems (2) composed of living beings, and (3) sustainability as sufficiency, focused on timber consumption and the role of global market dynamics. Reflecting and acknowledging them could provide opportunities for improving communication between foresters and non-experts in times of climate change and other major transformations. Additionally, we encourage the use of settings conducive for informal, face-to-face deliberation to elicit and include perspectives that may not otherwise be represented in traditional governance structures.
近年来,气候变化和社会变革增加了对多功能森林管理需求的复杂性,导致了新的冲突。因此,公共森林管理部门特别寻求改善与社会群体的沟通和互动,而这些群体以前并不熟悉。在我们的研究中,我们运用民主议事模式来评估造林培训基地("马特罗普")是否适合促进林业工作者和年轻的气候活动家之间就多功能森林管理进行议事交流。此外,我们还研究了在此背景下出现的解释框架。我们采用了探索性研究设计,使用了参与观察和小组讨论,并通过顺序重构方法对其进行了分析。我们发现,"马特洛镜 "练习通常支持符合有意交流标准的对话。我们还观察到一个明显的知识层次结构,它是开放式商议过程的潜在障碍。我们发现参与者提出的三个主要解释框架在一定程度上挑战了主流的森林框架:(1) 森林是复杂的生态系统,(2) 由生物组成,(3) 可持续性是充足性,侧重于木材消耗和全球市场动态的作用。在气候变化和其他重大变革时期,反映和承认这些观点可以为改善林业工作者与非专家之间的交流提供机会。此外,我们鼓励利用有利于进行非正式、面对面讨论的场合,以征求和采纳那些在传统治理结构中可能没有代表的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Multiple crises as a policy window for forest and nature a power-analysis from Germany 多重危机作为森林和自然的政策窗口--来自德国的动力分析
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103349
Worldwide, a variety of crises are affecting forests, which also contribute to mitigate crises effects. This article examines the question to what extent and under what conditions crises are drivers for policy change towards more ecological forest management. Based on an analytical model that links crises and policy change through actor-centred power (ACP), the formulation of new financing instruments for forests in Germany is used as a case. Methodologically, we go beyond recording power resources and focus on the use of these resources by actors of both the forest and nature conservation policy sector. The use of power resources is measured by the activities of sectoral actors and their effectiveness for the policy output. The results show policy changes that have been favored by the climate, forest and coronavirus crises. The crises opened windows of opportunity as discursive resources that could be better exploited by the forest sector than the nature conservation sector. This shows that the use of crises by political actors tends to have a power-stabilizing effect in forest policy. Only the change of government opened the window that leaded to a power shift in favor of the nature conservation sector by defining more nature conservation related requirements.
在世界范围内,各种危机正在影响着森林,这也有助于减轻危机的影响。本文探讨了危机在多大程度上以及在何种条件下能够推动政策变革,从而实现更加生态化的森林管理。通过以行动者为中心的权力(ACP)将危机与政策变革联系起来,基于这一分析模型,本文以德国制定新的森林融资工具为例进行分析。在方法论上,我们不仅记录了权力资源,还关注了森林和自然保护政策部门的参与者对这些资源的使用。权力资源的使用是通过部门参与者的活动及其对政策产出的有效性来衡量的。研究结果表明,气候、森林和冠状病毒危机有利于政策的改变。这些危机打开了机会之窗,成为森林部门比自然保护部门更好地利用的话语资源。这表明,政治行动者利用危机往往会对森林政策产生权力稳定效应。只有政府更迭才打开了一扇窗,通过定义更多与自然保护相关的要求,导致权力向有利于自然保护部门的方向转移。
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引用次数: 0
Why do forests persist and re-emerge amidst tropical deforestation pressures? Archetypes of governance and impact pathways 在热带森林砍伐的压力下,森林为何能够持续存在并重新崛起?治理模式和影响途径
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103352
Tropical deforestation pressures remain high, but in some areas, forest cover persists, re-emerges, or even expands. Uncovering the driving factors of such a shift has incessantly focused on biophysical and economic development changes, especially at national and regional levels, but evidence on the role of governance remains case-based and inconsistent. This article investigates the role of community and participatory governance arrangements and socio-political institutions at the local level in fostering forest re-emergence and their persistence over time. Using an archetype approach, this study conducts a meta-analysis of 42 empirical studies to identify recurrent patterns of institutions and their impact pathways that explain how forest persistence and re-emergence in the tropics occur. The results show that while forest re-emergence is achieved mainly through three archetypical pathways: collective action, adaptive collaborations, decentralisation, and recognition of local management, forest persistence is uniquely associated with cultural protection pathways. These pathways are activated by collaborative institutions, a mix of formal and informal institutions, and customary institutions. Chiefly, the study emphasises the relevance of local social agencies and institutional arrangements. Yet it also shows the supportive contributions of external actors to forest re-emergence when interventions meet local needs and conditions. Moreso, the results also reveal that forest persistence and re-emergence, to some extent, have socio-economic trade-offs. Policy and institutional implications for enhancing local self-organisation, adaptive governance, rights-based reforestation, and formal protection of sacred natural sites are therefore put forward.
热带森林砍伐的压力仍然很大,但在一些地区,森林覆盖率持续存在、重新出现甚至扩大。人们一直关注生物物理和经济发展的变化,尤其是国家和地区层面的变化,以揭示这种转变的驱动因素,但有关治理作用的证据仍以案例为基础,且不一致。本文研究了地方一级的社区和参与性治理安排以及社会政治机构在促进森林重新崛起及其长期存在方面的作用。本研究采用原型分析法,对 42 项实证研究进行了元分析,以确定可解释热带地区森林持续存在和重新崛起的经常性制度模式及其影响途径。研究结果表明,森林重新崛起主要是通过三种典型途径实现的:集体行动、适应性合作、权力下放以及对地方管理的认可,而森林的持久性则与文化保护途径有着独特的联系。这些途径由合作机构、正式和非正式机构的组合以及习俗机构激活。研究主要强调了当地社会机构和制度安排的相关性。然而,研究也表明,当干预措施符合当地需求和条件时,外部行为者对森林的重新崛起也起到了支持作用。此外,研究结果还表明,森林的持续存在和重新崛起在某种程度上需要在社会经济方面进行权衡。因此,我们提出了加强地方自我组织、适应性治理、基于权利的重新造林以及正式保护自然圣地的政策和制度影响。
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引用次数: 0
Forest sector models for tropical countries - A case study of Colombia 热带国家森林部门模型--哥伦比亚案例研究
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103341
The evolution of Forest Sector Models (FSMs) since the 1960s has marked a significant advancement in forest economics and policy analysis. However, this development is limited to North America and Europe's nations; tropical countries, crucial for biodiversity, carbon storage, and deforestation, face a notable scarcity of FSMs, often attributed to the limited and fragmented nature of their forest sector data. The importance of unprocessed wood and sources of wood supply are also distinct in tropical countries. We address these issues by introducing a comprehensive framework to build FSMs tailored for tropical countries whose national accounts are aligned with United Nations standards. We demonstrate the applicability of our framework by constructing the Colombian Forest Sector Model (CFSM), a structural econometric partial equilibrium model. The CFSM includes five markets grouped in two market sub-models: one for unprocessed wood (firewood and industrial wood) linked to a forest plantations simulator, and other for manufactured wood products (wood, furniture, and pulp & paper). The model consists of 32 behavioral equations, explaining supply, consumption, exports and imports, and prices for consumption and trade for each market, plus 18 summation and market-clearing identities. Model estimation is based on 41 years (1975–2015) of data collected, organized, and transformed through a meticulous process. Rigorous validation confirms the CFSM's robustness and reliability. The model's application is demonstrated by estimating wood availability and impacts under several plantation expansion scenarios, and the monetary effects of expanding Colombia's wood products industry. The paper opens new frontiers of research in FSMs.
自 20 世纪 60 年代以来,森林部门模型(FSM)的发展标志着森林经济学和政策分析的重大进步。然而,这一发展仅限于北美和欧洲国家;而对生物多样性、碳储存和森林砍伐至关重要的热带国家却面临着森林部门模型明显匮乏的问题,这通常归因于其森林部门数据的有限性和分散性。热带国家未加工木材的重要性和木材供应来源也各不相同。为了解决这些问题,我们引入了一个综合框架,为国民核算符合联合国标准的热带国家量身打造森林可持续管理机制。我们通过构建哥伦比亚林业部门模型(CFSM)--一个结构计量经济学局部均衡模型--来证明我们的框架的适用性。CFSM 包括五个市场,分为两个市场子模型:一个是与森林种植模拟器相关联的未加工木材市场(木柴和工业木材),另一个是木制品市场(木材、家具和纸浆&amp;纸张)。该模型由 32 个行为方程组成,解释每个市场的供应、消费、进出口、消费价格和贸易价格,外加 18 个求和及市场清算特性。模型估算基于 41 年(1975-2015 年)的数据收集、整理和转换过程。严格的验证证实了 CFSM 的稳健性和可靠性。通过估算几种种植园扩张方案下的木材可用性和影响,以及哥伦比亚木制品行业扩张的货币效应,证明了该模型的应用价值。本文开辟了森林可持续管理研究的新领域。
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引用次数: 0
Food and the forest: A spatial analysis on the nexus between foreign direct investment and deforestation 粮食与森林:外国直接投资与森林砍伐之间关系的空间分析
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103353
This study examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on deforestation in non-OECD countries, in consideration of the potential trade-offs between economic objectives and environmental concerns and the pollution haven hypothesis. The study applies a multilevel fixed effects estimator to an original panel dataset of more than 4500 locations that received FDI across 120 countries between 2003 and 2019 and considers the sectors and sub-sectors of investment projects to examine heterogeneous land intensity in agricultural and food activities. Three main conclusions emerge. First, the food sector is primarily responsible for FDI-driven forest loss, while FDI projects in other sectors do not seem to significantly contribute to deforestation. Second, forest loss induced by food FDI is driven by specific sub-sectors; in particular, FDI projects in the food trade and services sub-sector seem to be significant, which is likely attributable to increased demand for local agricultural production. Third, animal industry FDI has the most significant impact on forest loss where the forest land cover is dominant.
本研究考察了外国直接投资(FDI)对非经合组织国家森林砍伐的影响,同时考虑了经济目标与环境问题之间的潜在权衡以及污染天堂假说。该研究对 2003 年至 2019 年间 120 个国家的 4500 多个接受外国直接投资的地点的原始面板数据集采用了多层次固定效应估计方法,并考虑了投资项目的部门和分部门,以研究农业和食品活动中的异质性土地强度。研究得出了三个主要结论。首先,食品行业是外国直接投资造成森林损失的主要原因,而其他行业的外国直接投资项目似乎并没有对森林砍伐造成重大影响。第二,食品行业外国直接投资造成的森林损失是由特定的分部门驱动的;特别是,食品贸易和服务分部门的外国直接投资项目似乎很重要,这可能是由于对当地农业生产的需求增加。第三,在森林植被占主导地位的地方,畜牧业外国直接投资对森林损失的影响最大。
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引用次数: 0
The cost of operational complexity: A causal assessment of pre-fire mitigation and wildfire suppression 业务复杂性的代价:火前减灾和野火扑灭的因果评估
IF 4 2区 农林科学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2024.103351
Pre-fire mitigation efforts that include the installation and maintenance of fuel breaks are integral to wildfire suppression in Southern California. Fuel breaks alter fire behavior and assist in fire suppression at strategic locations on the landscape. However, the combined effectiveness of fuel breaks and wildfire suppression is not well studied. Using daily firefighting personnel to proxy the quantity and diversity of potential fire suppression operations (i.e., operational complexity), we examined 15 wildfires from 2017 to 2020 in the Los Padres, Angeles, San Bernardino, and Cleveland National Forests to assess how weather and site-specific fuel break characteristics influenced wildfire containment when leveraged during suppression operations. After removing effects of fuel treatments, wildfire and aerial firefighting, we estimated that expanding fuel break width in grass-dominant systems from 10 to 100 m increased the average success rate against a heading fire from 31 % to 41 %. Likewise, recently cleared fuel breaks had higher success rates compared to poorly maintained fuel breaks in both grass (25 % to 45 %) and shrub systems (20 % to 45 %). Combined, grass and shrub systems exhibited an estimated success rate of 80 % under mild weather conditions (20th percentile) and 19 % under severe weather (80th percentile). Other significant determinants included forb and grass production, adjacent tree canopy cover and terrain. Consistent with complexity theory and previous suppression effectiveness research, our analysis showed signs of suppression effectiveness declining as firefighter personnel increased. Future work could better account for the role of suppression with improved data on firefighting resource types, actions, locations, and timing.
包括安装和维护防火隔离带在内的火前减灾工作是南加州野火扑救不可或缺的一部分。防火隔离带可以改变火灾行为,并在地形的战略位置协助灭火。然而,对防火隔离带和野火扑灭的综合效果还没有很好的研究。通过使用每日消防人员来代表潜在灭火行动的数量和多样性(即行动复杂性),我们研究了 2017 年至 2020 年洛斯帕德雷斯、洛杉矶、圣伯纳迪诺和克利夫兰国家森林的 15 起野火,以评估在灭火行动中利用天气和特定地点的燃料断裂带特征对野火控制的影响。在剔除了燃料处理、野火和空中灭火的影响后,我们估计,在以草为主的系统中,将燃料断裂带的宽度从 10 米扩大到 100 米,可将扑灭标题火的平均成功率从 31% 提高到 41%。同样,在草地系统(25% 到 45%)和灌木系统(20% 到 45%)中,与维护不善的防火带相比,最近清理的防火带成功率更高。综合来看,草地和灌木系统在温和天气条件下的成功率估计为 80%(第 20 个百分位数),而在恶劣天气条件下的成功率估计为 19%(第 80 个百分位数)。其他重要的决定因素包括禁草和牧草产量、邻近树冠覆盖率和地形。与复杂性理论和以前的灭火效果研究一致,我们的分析表明,随着消防员人数的增加,灭火效果有下降的迹象。未来的工作可以通过改进有关消防资源类型、行动、地点和时间的数据,更好地说明灭火的作用。
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Forest Policy and Economics
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