Kampala land passengers transportation planning: Examining consumer behavior through a bottom-up lens

Abstract

In response to the imperatives outlined in SDGs 7, 11, and 13 and the Paris Agreement, folks increasingly focus on transportation to mitigate climate change. Uganda’s capital, Kampala, lacks ratified passenger land transportation plans. This study employs the KLAP-TIMES model, a bottom-up engineering framework, to examine Kampala commuters’ behaviors using three scenarios. Leveraging TIMES-VEDA, the study explores a baseline scenario (BAU) without time travel financial (TTF) limitations or distinctive Value of Travel Time (VTT) levels but with model permissions for competition among dissimilar trip modes, technologies, and fuels, a Kampala Accessibility and Priority Options (KAPO) Scenario with specific VTT levels under TTF limitations, and the Kampala Sustainable scenario (KSS), with a 50% carbon emissions bargain in the system by 2060, contingent upon the persistence of VTT and TTF over the planning horizon. The study utilizes the VTT purposively to measure infrastructure investments as a policy shock on travel time. By exogenously inputting travel demand, the model elucidates the endogenous preferences of individual commuters among various trip modes, including Boda-boda, Kampala sedans, and mass rapid transit (MRT) with an electrified Metro at its core, for both short—and long-distance journeys. The findings reveal significant shifts in consumer behavior, particularly in the Kampala Sustainable scenario, where commuters prefer the electrified Kampala Metro for both short—and long-distance travel, signaling a notable departure from traditional Kampala sedan usage. The study suggests prioritizing the value of travel time (VTT) alongside a carbon reduction trajectory (KSS) is a strategic route for sustainable mobility in Kampala. The study provides valuable insight to policymakers, aiding them in formulating and enacting transportation policies that effectively support Kampala’s sustainability objectives.