{"title":"Variance risk premiums in emerging markets","authors":"Fang Qiao , Lai Xu , Xiaoyan Zhang , Hao Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107259","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We provide for the first time the emerging market variance risk premium (EMVRP) from 2006 to 2023, based on nine emerging stock and option markets—Brazil, China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, and Taiwan. The EMVRP significantly predicts international stock returns and currency appreciation rates, especially for horizons longer than six months. This is in sharp contrast with the predictive pattern of the developed market variance risk premium (DMVRP), which is more important over horizons shorter than six months. These findings are consistent with an illustrative model incorporating partial market integration and heterogeneous economic uncertainty.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"167 ","pages":"Article 107259"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Banking & Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426624001730","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
We provide for the first time the emerging market variance risk premium (EMVRP) from 2006 to 2023, based on nine emerging stock and option markets—Brazil, China, India, South Korea, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, and Taiwan. The EMVRP significantly predicts international stock returns and currency appreciation rates, especially for horizons longer than six months. This is in sharp contrast with the predictive pattern of the developed market variance risk premium (DMVRP), which is more important over horizons shorter than six months. These findings are consistent with an illustrative model incorporating partial market integration and heterogeneous economic uncertainty.
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The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.
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