Pub Date : 2025-03-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107441
Ying Dou , Yulia Merkoulova , Betty Wu
External networks are usually believed to add value, but what happens when the connected parties have conflicting interests in a transaction? We study the impact of social connections between seasoned equity offering (SEO) issuers and their lead underwriters on SEO outcomes. We find that, during accelerated offerings, connected issuers profit substantially from their links to investment banks through both lower direct issuance costs and smaller SEO discounts. Results of an event study based on the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers show that the effect of connections is causal. We present evidence supporting an information flow hypothesis that connections improve deal outcomes by facilitating more efficient information exchange.
{"title":"Connections with investment banks and their value: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings","authors":"Ying Dou , Yulia Merkoulova , Betty Wu","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107441","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107441","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>External networks are usually believed to add value, but what happens when the connected parties have conflicting interests in a transaction? We study the impact of social connections between seasoned equity offering (SEO) issuers and their lead underwriters on SEO outcomes. We find that, during accelerated offerings, connected issuers profit substantially from their links to investment banks through both lower direct issuance costs and smaller SEO discounts. Results of an event study based on the sudden collapse of Lehman Brothers show that the effect of connections is causal. We present evidence supporting an information flow hypothesis that connections improve deal outcomes by facilitating more efficient information exchange.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 107441"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143761212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-27DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107442
Xiaoran Ni , Jin Xu , David Yin
Stronger creditor rights in bankruptcy are often viewed as adding deadweight costs and leading to inefficient liquidation. However, ex ante, they also increase firms' borrowing capacity and reduce financial constraints. This study investigates shareholders' overall attitudes toward enhanced creditor rights in bankruptcy by examining the impact of the staggered adoption of anti-recharacterization laws across U.S. states on the cost of equity capital. We find that the strengthening of creditor rights leads to a significant reduction in the cost of equity capital, with the effect being more pronounced among financially constrained firms and firms with more growth opportunities and volatile cash flows. The reduction is stronger among firms that are more likely to utilize securitized debt. Overall, our results suggest that enhanced creditor rights in bankruptcy improve shareholder value through increased borrowing capacity.
{"title":"Are enhanced creditor rights in bankruptcy desirable to shareholders? Evidence from the cost of equity capital","authors":"Xiaoran Ni , Jin Xu , David Yin","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107442","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107442","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Stronger creditor rights in bankruptcy are often viewed as adding deadweight costs and leading to inefficient liquidation. However, ex ante, they also increase firms' borrowing capacity and reduce financial constraints. This study investigates shareholders' overall attitudes toward enhanced creditor rights in bankruptcy by examining the impact of the staggered adoption of anti-recharacterization laws across U.S. states on the cost of equity capital. We find that the strengthening of creditor rights leads to a significant reduction in the cost of equity capital, with the effect being more pronounced among financially constrained firms and firms with more growth opportunities and volatile cash flows. The reduction is stronger among firms that are more likely to utilize securitized debt. Overall, our results suggest that enhanced creditor rights in bankruptcy improve shareholder value through increased borrowing capacity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 107442"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143769327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107435
Juan C. Quintero-V
This paper examines the effects on social welfare of changes in coverage levels within deposit insurance schemes. It utilizes a solid theoretical framework and takes advantage of a quasi-natural experiment and bank-level data to measure the impact of an increase in Colombia’s deposit insurance coverage level. For the case studied, the benefits outweigh the costs, resulting in a positive net impact on welfare. However, some banks concentrate most of the gains. The size of a bank, its probability of default, and the change in the percentage of insured deposits that occurred due to the increase in the coverage level are critical. Two extensions of the main model are also analyzed. The first allows banks to be bailed out because of “too-big-to-fail” considerations, and the second incorporates banks’ reaction to the increase in the coverage level. The benefits of increasing the coverage level remain positive in both cases but are lower than using the main model.
{"title":"Measuring the impact of changing deposit insurance coverage levels: Findings from Colombia","authors":"Juan C. Quintero-V","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107435","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107435","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines the effects on social welfare of changes in coverage levels within deposit insurance schemes. It utilizes a solid theoretical framework and takes advantage of a quasi-natural experiment and bank-level data to measure the impact of an increase in Colombia’s deposit insurance coverage level. For the case studied, the benefits outweigh the costs, resulting in a positive net impact on welfare. However, some banks concentrate most of the gains. The size of a bank, its probability of default, and the change in the percentage of insured deposits that occurred due to the increase in the coverage level are critical. Two extensions of the main model are also analyzed. The first allows banks to be bailed out because of “too-big-to-fail” considerations, and the second incorporates banks’ reaction to the increase in the coverage level. The benefits of increasing the coverage level remain positive in both cases but are lower than using the main model.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 107435"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143746749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107432
Stefano Lugo
High-income individuals direct a higher share of their savings toward the stock market and a lower share toward credit markets and bank deposits. An increase in income inequality thus translates into an expected decrease in the relative supply of debt capital. Nonfinancial corporations are predicted to cater to these shifts by adjusting their capital structure. Results from instrumental variable models estimated on a panel sample of either US or non-US corporations and several robustness checks empirically support this prediction. Consistent with the theorized household portfolio channel, the negative relation between leverage and local income inequality is driven by corporations less likely to have access to non-local capital markets. This result is confirmed when exploiting the introduction of the euro as an exogenous shock to European firms’ relative exposure to non-domestic investors.
{"title":"Inequality and capital structure","authors":"Stefano Lugo","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107432","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107432","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-income individuals direct a higher share of their savings toward the stock market and a lower share toward credit markets and bank deposits. An increase in income inequality thus translates into an expected decrease in the relative supply of debt capital. Nonfinancial corporations are predicted to cater to these shifts by adjusting their capital structure. Results from instrumental variable models estimated on a panel sample of either US or non-US corporations and several robustness checks empirically support this prediction. Consistent with the theorized household portfolio channel, the negative relation between leverage and local income inequality is driven by corporations less likely to have access to non-local capital markets. This result is confirmed when exploiting the introduction of the euro as an exogenous shock to European firms’ relative exposure to non-domestic investors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 107432"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143695918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Investor overconfidence, characterized by an excessive belief in the ability to generate superior portfolio returns, is a widely studied behavioral bias. This paper investigates the mechanisms underlying overconfidence using a Bayesian model that incorporates two features: biased prior beliefs, which imply overconfidence even before investors engage in the stock market, and biased learning, where investors overemphasize instances of outperforming the market. Empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that biased learning contributes to overconfidence, but only in the early years of investor tenure. Although overconfidence decreases with investment experience, we find that it is a widespread and persistent behavioral trait.
{"title":"Stock market experience and investor overconfidence: Do investors learn to be overconfident?","authors":"Gennaro Bernile , Yosef Bonaparte , Stefanos Delikouras","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107431","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107431","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Investor overconfidence, characterized by an excessive belief in the ability to generate superior portfolio returns, is a widely studied behavioral bias. This paper investigates the mechanisms underlying overconfidence using a Bayesian model that incorporates two features: biased prior beliefs, which imply overconfidence even before investors engage in the stock market, and biased learning, where investors overemphasize instances of outperforming the market. Empirical analysis supports the hypothesis that biased learning contributes to overconfidence, but only in the early years of investor tenure. Although overconfidence decreases with investment experience, we find that it is a widespread and persistent behavioral trait.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 107431"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143704113","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using a proprietary, hand-collected database of 251 sanctions issued by national and international authorities on 109 European banks, we investigate the deterrent effect of governance effectiveness at the country level on detected bank misconduct from 2009 to 2019. We also examine the impact of detected bank misconduct on depositor behavior to investigate how customer reaction is shaped by media coverage. Our empirical strategy based on probit and panel fixed effects shows the existence of a deterrent effect exerted by country governance effectiveness. Moreover, the instrumental regressions show that depositors react to detected bank misconduct by withdrawing their funds and that this reaction is stronger when news coverage is high.
{"title":"Bank misconduct: The deterrent effect of country governance and customer reaction","authors":"Alessandro Carretta , Doriana Cucinelli , Lucrezia Fattobene , Paola Schwizer","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107434","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107434","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using a proprietary, hand-collected database of 251 sanctions issued by national and international authorities on 109 European banks, we investigate the deterrent effect of governance effectiveness at the country level on detected bank misconduct from 2009 to 2019. We also examine the impact of detected bank misconduct on depositor behavior to investigate how customer reaction is shaped by media coverage. Our empirical strategy based on probit and panel fixed effects shows the existence of a deterrent effect exerted by country governance effectiveness. Moreover, the instrumental regressions show that depositors react to detected bank misconduct by withdrawing their funds and that this reaction is stronger when news coverage is high.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 107434"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687448","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-11DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107421
Anton van Boxtel
This paper argues that bonus caps can be welfare improving in banking labour markets with high mobility. On the labour market, the largest banks hire the most talented traders, but they need to do so with contracts with high bonuses in order to both screen talent and to prevent poaching by smaller banks. This can lead to excessive risk taking. In some cases, it is socially optimal to prevent screening, leading to a less efficient matching of talent to banks, but also to less risk taking. Bonus caps can achieve this in a way that is both more effective and less costly than setting tighter capital constraints.
{"title":"Regulating bank risk in a mobile labour market","authors":"Anton van Boxtel","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107421","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107421","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper argues that bonus caps can be welfare improving in banking labour markets with high mobility. On the labour market, the largest banks hire the most talented traders, but they need to do so with contracts with high bonuses in order to both screen talent and to prevent poaching by smaller banks. This can lead to excessive risk taking. In some cases, it is socially optimal to prevent screening, leading to a less efficient matching of talent to banks, but also to less risk taking. Bonus caps can achieve this in a way that is both more effective and less costly than setting tighter capital constraints.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 107421"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143761213","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We introduce two novel indices built from CDS market data capturing the level and uncertainty information embedded in credit spreads aggregated by industry, and study their role in predicting bonds recovery rates. Analyzing 613 defaulted U.S. corporate bond issues from 2006 to 2019 and using a beta regression model, we find the cross-sectional mean and approximate entropy of CDS spreads aggregated at the sector level to be important predictors of the recovery rates distributions. In the classical beta regression model, both regressors are statistically significant and enhance the pseudo-R2 by up to 4%. Notably, a forward model selection procedure includes the sector-level regressor before well-known variables such as the bonds’ coupon rate or the American default rate. In addition, our sector-uncertainty regressor is the only significant uncertainty variable. These findings offer valuable insights for improving credit risk assessment methodologies and identifying key risk indicators of recovery rates before running prediction models.
{"title":"The role of CDS spreads in explaining bond recovery rates","authors":"Matteo Barbagli , Pascal François , Geneviève Gauthier , Frédéric Vrins","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107414","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107414","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We introduce two novel indices built from CDS market data capturing the level and uncertainty information embedded in credit spreads aggregated by industry, and study their role in predicting bonds recovery rates. Analyzing 613 defaulted U.S. corporate bond issues from 2006 to 2019 and using a beta regression model, we find the cross-sectional mean and approximate entropy of CDS spreads aggregated at the sector level to be important predictors of the recovery rates distributions. In the classical beta regression model, both regressors are statistically significant and enhance the pseudo-R<sup>2</sup> by up to 4%. Notably, a forward model selection procedure includes the sector-level regressor before well-known variables such as the bonds’ coupon rate or the American default rate. In addition, our sector-uncertainty regressor is the only significant uncertainty variable. These findings offer valuable insights for improving credit risk assessment methodologies and identifying key risk indicators of recovery rates before running prediction models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 107414"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143579559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-25DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107400
Ricardo Correa, Laurie DeMarco
We find that the leverage of primary dealers has predictive power in forecasting exchange rates, but that it varies by a novel type of heterogeneity, the dealer’s headquarter jurisdiction, and over time. The leverage of foreign-headquartered dealers in the U.S. drives the predictive power for exchange rates, while it is insignificant for U.S.-headquartered dealers. We propose this heterogeneity can be explained by the relative balance sheet capacity of foreign dealers compared to domestic dealers and how that capacity changes over time with regulation. Furthermore, we document that currency market positions are stronger than cross-border lending as the channel through which leverage affects exchange rates.
{"title":"Dealer leverage and exchange rates: Heterogeneity across intermediaries","authors":"Ricardo Correa, Laurie DeMarco","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107400","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107400","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We find that the leverage of primary dealers has predictive power in forecasting exchange rates, but that it varies by a novel type of heterogeneity, the dealer’s headquarter jurisdiction, and over time. The leverage of foreign-headquartered dealers in the U.S. drives the predictive power for exchange rates, while it is insignificant for U.S.-headquartered dealers. We propose this heterogeneity can be explained by the relative balance sheet capacity of foreign dealers compared to domestic dealers and how that capacity changes over time with regulation. Furthermore, we document that currency market positions are stronger than cross-border lending as the channel through which leverage affects exchange rates.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"174 ","pages":"Article 107400"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143687447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-22DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107411
Hisham Farag , Di Luo , Larisa Yarovaya , Damian Zieba
We examine the liquidity provision premium in cryptocurrency markets using the returns from the short reversal strategy. We show that returns from liquidity provision can be predicted using the volatility index, realized variance, risk aversion, crash risk, tail risk, and innovations of Tether liquidity. We also find that an increase in the liquidity provision premium is associated with a decline in liquidity, trading volume, and transaction count, as well as more withdrawals, higher fees, and greater impermanent loss on Uniswap. This suggests potential competition between centralized and decentralized exchanges. Further, the liquidity provision premium of stock markets in China and Japan positively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (effect of a common shock), meanwhile that of stock markets in the US and Canada negatively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (substitution effect).
{"title":"Returns from liquidity provision in cryptocurrency markets","authors":"Hisham Farag , Di Luo , Larisa Yarovaya , Damian Zieba","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107411","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107411","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We examine the liquidity provision premium in cryptocurrency markets using the returns from the short reversal strategy. We show that returns from liquidity provision can be predicted using the volatility index, realized variance, risk aversion, crash risk, tail risk, and innovations of Tether liquidity. We also find that an increase in the liquidity provision premium is associated with a decline in liquidity, trading volume, and transaction count, as well as more withdrawals, higher fees, and greater impermanent loss on Uniswap. This suggests potential competition between centralized and decentralized exchanges. Further, the liquidity provision premium of stock markets in China and Japan positively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (effect of a common shock), meanwhile that of stock markets in the US and Canada negatively predicts the premium of cryptocurrency markets (substitution effect).</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"175 ","pages":"Article 107411"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143769326","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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