Pub Date : 2025-02-13DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107399
Sima Jannati
I examine whether holidays affect the forecast accuracy of equity analysts. I find that earnings forecasts issued after holidays are, on average, more accurate than those issued before. Economically, this effect is equivalent to the impact of 73 months of experience on analyst accuracy. Using heuristic behavior as a proxy for improved rest, I find that analysts’ use of heuristics declines after holidays. I examine and rule out greater information availability, increased attention, and changes in sentiment as alternative mechanisms. Overall, the results suggest that short breaks from work meaningfully improve the quality of analysts’ performance.
{"title":"Rest and financial judgments: The impact of holidays on analyst accuracy","authors":"Sima Jannati","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107399","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107399","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>I examine whether holidays affect the forecast accuracy of equity analysts. I find that earnings forecasts issued after holidays are, on average, more accurate than those issued before. Economically, this effect is equivalent to the impact of 73 months of experience on analyst accuracy. Using heuristic behavior as a proxy for improved rest, I find that analysts’ use of heuristics declines after holidays. I examine and rule out greater information availability, increased attention, and changes in sentiment as alternative mechanisms. Overall, the results suggest that short breaks from work meaningfully improve the quality of analysts’ performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 107399"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143422293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-02DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107395
Brendan K. Beare , Juwon Seo , Zhongxi Zheng
Opportunities for stochastic arbitrage in an options market arise when it is possible to construct a portfolio of options which provides a positive option premium and which, when combined with a direct investment in the underlying asset, generates a payoff which stochastically dominates the payoff from the direct investment in the underlying asset. We provide linear and mixed-integer linear programs for computing the stochastic arbitrage opportunity providing the maximum option premium to an investor. We apply our programs to 18 years of data on monthly put and call options on the Standard & Poors 500 index, finding no evidence that stochastic arbitrage opportunities are systematically present. A skewed specification of the underlying market return distribution with a constant market risk premium and constant multiplicative variance risk premium is broadly consistent with the pricing of market index options at moderate strikes.
{"title":"Stochastic arbitrage with market index options","authors":"Brendan K. Beare , Juwon Seo , Zhongxi Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107395","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107395","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Opportunities for stochastic arbitrage in an options market arise when it is possible to construct a portfolio of options which provides a positive option premium and which, when combined with a direct investment in the underlying asset, generates a payoff which stochastically dominates the payoff from the direct investment in the underlying asset. We provide linear and mixed-integer linear programs for computing the stochastic arbitrage opportunity providing the maximum option premium to an investor. We apply our programs to 18 years of data on monthly put and call options on the Standard & Poors 500 index, finding no evidence that stochastic arbitrage opportunities are systematically present. A skewed specification of the underlying market return distribution with a constant market risk premium and constant multiplicative variance risk premium is broadly consistent with the pricing of market index options at moderate strikes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"173 ","pages":"Article 107395"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143395512","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107344
Xiaoxiao Wang , Xueyong Zhang
This study investigates the potential impact of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic on cognitive biases in capital markets, focusing on individual mutual fund investors’ trading behavior in the post-SARS era. Using a proprietary data set obtained from a large Chinese mutual fund family comprising comprehensive trading information, this research finds that individuals in areas experiencing severe SARS cases exhibit a stronger disposition effect after the end of the epidemic. It further indicates that unsophisticated investors are more vulnerable to the disposition effect and this mood regulation–induced behavior is irrational and related to behavioral biases, ultimately worsening investors’ circumstances. These results hold across a wide range of robustness checks.
{"title":"Infectious disease outbreaks and the disposition effect of mutual fund investors","authors":"Xiaoxiao Wang , Xueyong Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107344","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107344","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the potential impact of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic on cognitive biases in capital markets, focusing on individual mutual fund investors’ trading behavior in the post-SARS era. Using a proprietary data set obtained from a large Chinese mutual fund family comprising comprehensive trading information, this research finds that individuals in areas experiencing severe SARS cases exhibit a stronger disposition effect after the end of the epidemic. It further indicates that unsophisticated investors are more vulnerable to the disposition effect and this mood regulation–induced behavior is irrational and related to behavioral biases, ultimately worsening investors’ circumstances. These results hold across a wide range of robustness checks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107344"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107348
Xiaoran Ni , Yuchao Peng , Ji Shen , Samuel A. Vigne , Nanxuan Wang
This paper empirically examines how listed non-financial firms use the “call option” feature of one of the most important financial assets, available-for-sale securities, as earnings manipulation tools owing to bad-news-hoarding motives. In 2007, China set its first accounting standards for financial instruments, which classify financial assets based on the highly subjective “managerial holding intention” criterion. We find that holding available-for-sale securities is positively associated with the likelihood of stock price crashes in Chinese listed firms. The main effect is more pronounced under lax external regulation and lower information transparency. It is further accentuated when CEOs have lower educational backgrounds, weaker competence in managing core business activities, or face greater performance pressures. Our findings indicate that, in typical emerging markets, fair value accounting may have unintended consequences, inducing non-financial firms to employ financial assets as tools to hoard bad news.
{"title":"Available-for-sale is available for hoarding: When nonfinancial firms hold financial assets","authors":"Xiaoran Ni , Yuchao Peng , Ji Shen , Samuel A. Vigne , Nanxuan Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107348","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107348","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper empirically examines how listed non-financial firms use the “call option” feature of one of the most important financial assets, available-for-sale securities, as earnings manipulation tools owing to bad-news-hoarding motives. In 2007, China set its first accounting standards for financial instruments, which classify financial assets based on the highly subjective “managerial holding intention” criterion. We find that holding available-for-sale securities is positively associated with the likelihood of stock price crashes in Chinese listed firms. The main effect is more pronounced under lax external regulation and lower information transparency. It is further accentuated when CEOs have lower educational backgrounds, weaker competence in managing core business activities, or face greater performance pressures. Our findings indicate that, in typical emerging markets, fair value accounting may have unintended consequences, inducing non-financial firms to employ financial assets as tools to hoard bad news.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107348"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102355","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107346
Maciej Augustyniak , Alexandru Badescu , Jean-François Bégin , Sarath Kumar Jayaraman
This article studies the impact of fractional integration on volatility modelling and option pricing. We propose a general discrete-time pricing framework based on affine multi-component volatility models that admit ARCH() representations. This not only nests a large variety of option pricing models from the literature, but also allows for the introduction of novel covariance-stationary long-memory affine GARCH pricing models. Using an infinite sum characterization of the log-asset price’s cumulant generating function, we derive semi-explicit expressions for the valuation of European-style derivatives under a general variance-dependent stochastic discount factor. Moreover, we carry out an extensive empirical analysis using returns and S&P 500 options over the period 1996–2019. Overall, we find that once the informational content from options is incorporated into the parameter estimation process, the inclusion of fractionally integrated dynamics in volatility is beneficial for improving the out-of-sample option pricing performance. The largest improvements in the implied volatility root-mean-square errors occur for options with maturities longer than one year, reaching 28% and 18% when compared to standard one- and two-component short-memory models, respectively.
{"title":"A general option pricing framework for affine fractionally integrated models","authors":"Maciej Augustyniak , Alexandru Badescu , Jean-François Bégin , Sarath Kumar Jayaraman","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107346","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107346","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article studies the impact of fractional integration on volatility modelling and option pricing. We propose a general discrete-time pricing framework based on affine multi-component volatility models that admit ARCH(<span><math><mi>∞</mi></math></span>) representations. This not only nests a large variety of option pricing models from the literature, but also allows for the introduction of novel covariance-stationary long-memory affine GARCH pricing models. Using an infinite sum characterization of the log-asset price’s cumulant generating function, we derive semi-explicit expressions for the valuation of European-style derivatives under a general variance-dependent stochastic discount factor. Moreover, we carry out an extensive empirical analysis using returns and S&P 500 options over the period 1996–2019. Overall, we find that once the informational content from options is incorporated into the parameter estimation process, the inclusion of fractionally integrated dynamics in volatility is beneficial for improving the out-of-sample option pricing performance. The largest improvements in the implied volatility root-mean-square errors occur for options with maturities longer than one year, reaching 28% and 18% when compared to standard one- and two-component short-memory models, respectively.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107346"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107356
Shuyi Ge , Shaoran Li , Hanyu Zheng
We conduct a comprehensive study on momentum spillovers in the Chinese stock market using various types of economic linkages, with particular attention to momentum spillover via news co-mention linkages. We utilize millions of Chinese business news articles and develop a flexible and innovative algorithm to identify linkages among listed firms. We find that news co-mention momentum spillover is stronger than others, unifying various forms of momentum spillover effects in the Chinese market and replacing the role of analyst co-coverage in the U.S. News co-mention identifies a wide range of economically important linkages, particularly recovering more cross-industry linkages than other link identification methods, which contributes to its strong performance.
{"title":"Diamond cuts diamond: News co-mention momentum spillover prevails in China","authors":"Shuyi Ge , Shaoran Li , Hanyu Zheng","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107356","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107356","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We conduct a comprehensive study on momentum spillovers in the Chinese stock market using various types of economic linkages, with particular attention to momentum spillover via news co-mention linkages. We utilize millions of Chinese business news articles and develop a flexible and innovative algorithm to identify linkages among listed firms. We find that news co-mention momentum spillover is stronger than others, unifying various forms of momentum spillover effects in the Chinese market and replacing the role of analyst co-coverage in the U.S. News co-mention identifies a wide range of economically important linkages, particularly recovering more cross-industry linkages than other link identification methods, which contributes to its strong performance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107356"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102389","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107352
Mark Humphery-Jenner , Emdad Islam , Vikram Nanda , Lubna Rahman
We hypothesize and show that the impact of a regulatory shock depends both on the shock itself and on how firms respond, which can itself depend on the firm's governance attributes. To explore this, we use the staggered passage of Universal Demand (UD) laws, which insulate managers from derivative lawsuits. We find that, on average, firms respond to UD laws by increasing risk-taking incentives (vega), thereby compensating for weaker external discipline, and incentivizing valuable risky investments. Corporate governance, institutional ownership, and CEO power influences the likelihood of adjusting compensation. The firms that do boost vega subsequently experience greater innovation, and a stronger market response to new product announcements. Our results help to reconcile extant findings on the effects of UD laws by showing that the beneficial impact of the laws is conditional on firms’ strengthening their CEOs’ risk-taking incentives, a choice affected by their latent governance arrangements.
{"title":"Incentive contracting in the shadow of litigation risk: Evidence from universal demand laws","authors":"Mark Humphery-Jenner , Emdad Islam , Vikram Nanda , Lubna Rahman","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107352","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107352","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We hypothesize and show that the impact of a regulatory shock depends both on the shock itself and on how firms respond, which can itself depend on the firm's governance attributes. To explore this, we use the staggered passage of Universal Demand (UD) laws, which insulate managers from derivative lawsuits. We find that, on average, firms respond to UD laws by increasing risk-taking incentives (vega), thereby compensating for weaker external discipline, and incentivizing valuable risky investments. Corporate governance, institutional ownership, and CEO power influences the likelihood of adjusting compensation. The firms that do boost vega subsequently experience greater innovation, and a stronger market response to new product announcements. Our results help to reconcile extant findings on the effects of UD laws by showing that the beneficial impact of the laws is conditional on firms’ strengthening their CEOs’ risk-taking incentives, a choice affected by their latent governance arrangements.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107352"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102352","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107353
Qianqian Yu
Using hand-collected data from Form Ds on executives in venture capital (VC)-backed private firms, I show that VC-driven top management changes lead to a significantly greater quantity and quality of innovation, which potentially occurs through new management teams hiring more and higher quality inventors. My evidence demonstrates that both founder replacements and non-founder management changes are associated with enhanced innovation. Further, adding top managers with general managerial skills enhances innovation, whereas changing managers with a prior technical background does not. Finally, top management changes lead to the adoption of an exploitative (rather than explorative) innovation search strategy by private firms.
{"title":"Do venture capital-driven top management changes enhance corporate innovation in private firms?","authors":"Qianqian Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107353","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107353","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using hand-collected data from Form Ds on executives in venture capital (VC)-backed private firms, I show that VC-driven top management changes lead to a significantly greater quantity and quality of innovation, which potentially occurs through new management teams hiring more and higher quality inventors. My evidence demonstrates that both founder replacements and non-founder management changes are associated with enhanced innovation. Further, adding top managers with general managerial skills enhances innovation, whereas changing managers with a prior technical background does not. Finally, top management changes lead to the adoption of an exploitative (rather than explorative) innovation search strategy by private firms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107353"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102360","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study compares the predictive power of downside risk for hedge funds and fund of hedge funds returns. We find a positive relationship between downside risk and return for hedge funds but not for funds of hedge funds. This result is robust to the downside risk measure employed and additional control variables. Furthermore, we find that funds of hedge funds perform significantly worse than hedge funds during adverse equity market regimes, exhibiting an inverse (negative) risk–return relationship. Finally, we form realistic portfolios to determine whether an investor can construct a portfolio that outperforms the average fund of hedge funds. These portfolios display superior risk-adjusted performance and rank among the top performers of funds of hedge funds in our sample.
{"title":"Downside risk and hedge fund returns","authors":"Christos Argyropoulos , Ekaterini Panopoulou , Spyridon Vrontos","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107345","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107345","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study compares the predictive power of downside risk for hedge funds and fund of hedge funds returns. We find a positive relationship between downside risk and return for hedge funds but not for funds of hedge funds. This result is robust to the downside risk measure employed and additional control variables. Furthermore, we find that funds of hedge funds perform significantly worse than hedge funds during adverse equity market regimes, exhibiting an inverse (negative) risk–return relationship. Finally, we form realistic portfolios to determine whether an investor can construct a portfolio that outperforms the average fund of hedge funds. These portfolios display superior risk-adjusted performance and rank among the top performers of funds of hedge funds in our sample.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107345"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107365
Tongshuai Qiao , Yang Zhao , Liyan Han , Donghui Li
This study examines the pricing of multivariate crash risk (MCRASH) in the Chinese stock market. Our findings indicate a significantly positive influence of MCRASH on the cross-section of future stock returns, with the MCRASH premium being notably higher in China than in the US. A plausible explanation for China's higher MCRASH premium is that Chinese stocks may experience greater loss magnitudes in left-tail events, leading investors to demand higher expected returns as compensation for bearing a unit of MCRASH. Additionally, the return effect of MCRASH is found to be significantly stronger for stocks of non-state-owned enterprises and those with lower media coverage. Finally, we construct a four-factor model comprising market, size, value, and MCRASH factors, which demonstrates superior explanatory power compared with the CH3 and CH4 models proposed in the literature.
{"title":"Multivariate crash risk in China","authors":"Tongshuai Qiao , Yang Zhao , Liyan Han , Donghui Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107365","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107365","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the pricing of multivariate crash risk (MCRASH) in the Chinese stock market. Our findings indicate a significantly positive influence of MCRASH on the cross-section of future stock returns, with the MCRASH premium being notably higher in China than in the US. A plausible explanation for China's higher MCRASH premium is that Chinese stocks may experience greater loss magnitudes in left-tail events, leading investors to demand higher expected returns as compensation for bearing a unit of MCRASH. Additionally, the return effect of MCRASH is found to be significantly stronger for stocks of non-state-owned enterprises and those with lower media coverage. Finally, we construct a four-factor model comprising market, size, value, and MCRASH factors, which demonstrates superior explanatory power compared with the CH3 and CH4 models proposed in the literature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48460,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Banking & Finance","volume":"171 ","pages":"Article 107365"},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143102364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}