Evaluating the long-term influence of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment: a GCM-based analysis

Abstract

This study aims to assess the long-term impacts of climate change on rainfall erosivity in the Jhelum Catchment, India. The primary research question addresses the temporal variation in erosivity under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, employing General Circulation Models (GCM) from the CMIP6 phase. Six GCMs, including ACCESS-CM2, CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, were utilized to analyze rainfall erosivity. The study explores the correlation between erosivity and climate change by incorporating SSP scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) over the period 2020 to 2090. The methodology involves a detailed examination of model correlations and statistical precision. The study reveals a progressive rise in Rainfall Erosivity (R) values, indicating heightened susceptibility to soil erosion from 2020 to 2090. Notably, IPSL-CM6A-LR and MPI-ESM1-2-HR models exhibit positive correlations with IMD precipitation, establishing their suitability for analyzing climate change effects in the Jhelum Catchment. The average R value increases from 798.804 (MJ-mm/ha/h/yr) in 2020 to projected values of 1551.57 by 2090 under SSP585, highlighting the substantial impact of climate change on erosivity. The results underscores the urgency of addressing climate-induced soil erosion in the Jhelum Catchment. The implications extend beyond local contexts, providing valuable insights for global climate change resilience. By enhancing our understanding of erosivity dynamics, this research contributes to interdisciplinary efforts and calls for proactive measures in sustainable land management and environmental policy.

Graphical Abstract