Unmasking seasonal cycles in a high-input dairy herd in a hot environment: How climate shapes dynamics of milk yield, reproduction, and productive status
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study aimed to predict the annual herd milk yield, lactation, and reproductive cycle stages in a high-input dairy herd in a zone with prolonged thermal stress. Also, the impact of climatic conditions on milk yield and productive and reproductive status was assessed. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used in data fitting to predict future monthly herd milk yield and reproductive status using data from 2014 to 2020. Based on the annual total milk output, the highest predicted percentage of milk yield based on the yearly milk production was in February (9.1%; 95% CI = 8.3–9.9) and the lowest in August (6.9%; 95% CI = 6.0–7.9). The predicted highest percentage of pregnant cows for 2021 was in May (61.8; 95% CI = 53.0–70.5) and the lowest for November (33.2%; 95% CI = 19.9–46.5). The monthly percentage of dry cows in this study showed a steady trend across years; the predicted highest percentage was in September (20.1%; CI = 16.4–23.7) and the lowest in March (7.5%; 4.0–11.0). The predicted days in milk (DIM) were lower in September (158; CI = 103–213) and highest in May (220; 95% CI = 181–259). Percentage of calvings was seasonal, with the predicted maximum percentage of calvings occurring in September (10.3%; CI = 8.0–12.5) and the minimum in April (3.2%; CI = 1.0–5.5). The highest predicted culling rate for the year ensuing the present data occurred in November (4.3%; 95% CI = 3.2–5.4) and the lowest in April (2.5%; 95% CI = 1.4–3.5). It was concluded that meteorological factors strongly influenced rhythms of monthly milk yield and reproductive status. Also, ARIMA models robustly estimated and forecasted productive and reproductive events in a dairy herd in a hot environment.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Thermal Biology publishes articles that advance our knowledge on the ways and mechanisms through which temperature affects man and animals. This includes studies of their responses to these effects and on the ecological consequences. Directly relevant to this theme are:
• The mechanisms of thermal limitation, heat and cold injury, and the resistance of organisms to extremes of temperature
• The mechanisms involved in acclimation, acclimatization and evolutionary adaptation to temperature
• Mechanisms underlying the patterns of hibernation, torpor, dormancy, aestivation and diapause
• Effects of temperature on reproduction and development, growth, ageing and life-span
• Studies on modelling heat transfer between organisms and their environment
• The contributions of temperature to effects of climate change on animal species and man
• Studies of conservation biology and physiology related to temperature
• Behavioural and physiological regulation of body temperature including its pathophysiology and fever
• Medical applications of hypo- and hyperthermia
Article types:
• Original articles
• Review articles