[Age-period-cohort analysis of the mortality trend of dementia among elderly people aged 60 to 94 years in China from 1982 to 2021].

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the trend of dementia mortality rate among individuals aged 60 to 94 years in China from 1982 to 2021. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend in the dementia mortality rate among Chinese older adults from 1982 to 2021. The age-period-cohort analysis method was used to decompose the age effect, period effect and cohort effect of dementia mortality data in Chinese elderly people. Results: From 1982 to 2021, the crude mortality rate of dementia in elderly women aged 60-94 in China (133.67/100 000-214.02/100 000) was higher than that in men (70.92/100 000-119.70/100 000), and the age-standardized mortality rate of dementia in women (230.74/100 000-246.87/100 000) was also higher than that in men (132.88/100 000-140.19/100 000). The age-standardized mortality rate of dementia in both genders showed an N-shaped fluctuation trend. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of dementia mortality rate in elderly males aged 60-94 was 0.07% (95%CI: 0.01%-0.13%), and the AAPC of dementia mortality rate in elderly females was -0.01% (95%CI:-0.08%-0.07%). Age effect analysis showed that from the age of 60, the risk of dementia death in males and females increased with age, especially among elderly people aged 75-94 who experienced a rapid increase in dementia mortality rate. The period effect analysis showed that the overall risk of dementia death in elderly men and women aged 60-94 was decreasing, but it had increased from 2017 to 2021. The cohort effect analysis showed that the risk of dementia death was lower in later birth cohorts. Conclusion: From 1982 to 2021, the dementia mortality rate among Chinese older adults aged 60 to 94 years exhibited fluctuations. Particularly, there has been a notable rebound in recent years. Special attention should be directed towards female seniors and those aged 75 to 94 years.