A cumulative damage model for tubes in nuclear power plants subject to continuous degradation and multi-effect shocks under dynamic environments

Abstract

Continuous degradation and shocks are two vital damage mechanisms for tubes under dynamic environments in nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this work, we presented a cumulative damage model to evaluate the reliability of tubes in NPPs, which accounts for continuous degradation and random shocks. The dynamic environments were assumed to obey a homogenous Markov process. Continuous degradation was described as a general stochastic process with independent increments. A multinomial distribution was used to depict the multiple effects of Poisson-distributed shocks on tubes. The influence of dynamic environments on the cumulative damage process of tubes was also explicitly modeled. Closed-form reliability measures were derived, such as reliability functions and mean time to failure (MTTF) of tubes. Drawing upon a case study from the existing literature, the analytical solution was validated through a comparative analysis with the outcomes of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and other methodologies referenced in the literature. As a practical engineering application, the reliability of steam generator tubes made of Alloy 690 within pressurized water reactors (PWRs), which are susceptible to primary side stress corrosion cracking (PWSCC) and the effects of water hammer, was calculated. The findings indicate that the probabilities of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) as estimated by the model and those inferred from operational experience have the same order of magnitude.