Assessment of overall human vulnerability to fire-induced domino effects in large-scale plants

Abstract

Large-scale plants, with their concentrated facilities, are at risk of domino effects in the event of escalating accidents. Specifically, the fire-induced domino effects can have considerable consequences. The prevalent probit model is inherently limited to capturing the synergistic effects of multiple fires, thereby constraining the assessment of the overall consequences subject to domino effects. Therefore, this paper introduces a novel numerical method that considers the cumulative effect of all escalation vectors, employing the concept of ‘residual thermal dose’. Monte Carlo simulations were used to model the uncertainties related to effective mitigation measures. Subsequently, we developed two formulas to assess overall human vulnerability to domino effects, providing a visualisation of potential consequences through vulnerability maps. We validated the merits and applicability of our methodology through a case study of a 50-tank oil storage plant. The proposed method can facilitate vulnerability assessment of domino accidents within large-scale plants and identification of critical hazard installations, thereby supporting risk assessment and security management.