Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries最新文献

Network theory-based analysis of cascading failures in chemical accident causation 基于网络理论的化工事故级联失效原因分析

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105937

Jingru Wu , Gui Fu , Xuecai Xie , Yali Wu , Yongtun Li

Chemical accidents are among the most severe types of industrial incidents, typically triggered by a complex interplay of multiple factors. These factors do not act in isolation; rather, they can initiate a chain reaction, collectively contributing to the occurrence of an accident. Therefore, it is crucial to systematically identify and analyze the dynamic propagation of these factors. This study employs network theory and the cascade failure model to examine the pathways through which causal factors spread in chemical accidents, aiming to deepen the understanding of and develop strategies for prevention. Initially, chemical accident cases were collected and filtered, followed by a statistical analysis of their basic information. Subsequently, a Causal Analysis of Chemical Accidents (CACA) framework was established based on the 24Model, which facilitated the identification of causative factors within accident cases and the construction of a CACA network model. Using various metrics from complex network theory, the importance of causative factors was assessed. Finally, the critical causative factor-accident propagation paths were obtained by analyzing the influence process among factors based on the cascading failure model, which were validated through nine practical cases. The findings reveal that the three most influential factors in the CACA network are operational errors (IA02), physical hazards (IA04), and chemical hazards (IA05). In key propagation pathways, factors such as the primary responsibility for safety (OC02), the degree of leadership accountability (OC05), and the emphasis on safety training (OC08) play major roles. This paper explores the mechanisms of occurrence, key causative factors, and critical propagation pathways in chemical accidents based on case studies, revealing the causes and processes of such accidents. This knowledge can help enterprises learn from incidents, thereby enhancing the safety of their production processes.

化学事故是最严重的工业事故之一，通常由多种因素复杂的相互作用引发。这些因素不是孤立地起作用的；相反，它们可以引发连锁反应，共同促成事故的发生。因此，系统地识别和分析这些因素的动态传播是至关重要的。本研究运用网络理论和级联失效模型考察了化学事故中因果因素的传播途径，旨在加深对化学事故的认识并制定预防策略。首先对化工事故案例进行收集和筛选，然后对其基本信息进行统计分析。随后，基于24模型构建了化工事故因果分析（CACA）框架，方便了事故案例中因果因素的识别和CACA网络模型的构建。利用复杂网络理论中的各种指标，评估了导致因素的重要性。最后，基于级联失效模型，通过分析各因素之间的影响过程，得到了关键致因-事故传播路径，并通过9个实际案例进行了验证。结果表明，对CACA网络影响最大的三个因素是操作错误（IA02）、物理危害（IA04）和化学危害（IA05）。在关键传播路径中，安全首要责任（OC02）、领导问责程度（OC05）和对安全培训的重视程度（OC08）等因素发挥了主要作用。通过案例分析，探讨化工事故的发生机制、关键致病因素和关键传播途径，揭示化工事故发生的原因和过程。这些知识可以帮助企业从事故中吸取教训，从而提高生产过程的安全性。

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引用次数: 0

Fire behaviour of biopolymer wet in flammable solvent 生物聚合物在可燃溶剂中的燃烧性能

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105966

Benedetta A. De Liso, Gianmaria Pio, Ernesto Salzano

Several industrial processes deal with solid-liquid hybrid mixtures composed of flammable or combustible species, posing concerns about their behaviour once exposed to undesired conditions, including fires. However, a poor understanding of the safety aspects and possible synergistic effects of the species constituting the mixtures has been gained. This is particularly relevant for polymer production, where innovative materials are continuously introduced. For these reasons, this work presents an innovative and comprehensive methodology for the evaluation of microscopic and macroscopic aspects ruling the fire-behaviour of solid-liquid mixtures of carbon-based substances. Lab-scale thermal analysis (Differential Scanning Calorimetry, DSC, Thermogravimetric Analysis TGA, and TGA coupled with Mass Spectroscopy, TG-MS) and bench-scale thermal oxidative analysis (cone calorimetry) were carried out. Isothermal tests, coupled with mass spectroscopy analyses, have elucidated the chain of events occurring under pyrolysis conditions, whereas fire tests have shed light on the ignitability and the overall kinetics and exothermicity. The proposed approach was applied to the cases of Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB), Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV), and PHBV-toluene mixtures. The vapour production from liquefied polymer was identified as the rate-determining and crotonic acid was identified as the species ruling the gas-phase reactivity of the polymer. Although two distinguishable behaviours were observed during the degradation of wet polymers, each of them attributable to a pure compound, toluene-polymers interactions were identified, allowing for the realisation of advanced models suitable for an optimised design of industrial processes involving wet polymers.

一些工业过程涉及由易燃或可燃物质组成的固体-液体混合混合物，一旦暴露在不良条件下（包括火灾），其行为就会引起关注。然而，对构成混合物的物种的安全方面和可能的协同效应的了解很少。这对于不断引入创新材料的聚合物生产尤其重要。由于这些原因，这项工作提出了一种创新和全面的方法，用于评估控制碳基物质固液混合物着火行为的微观和宏观方面。进行了实验室规模的热分析（差示扫描量热法，DSC，热重分析，TGA和TGA耦合质谱，TG-MS）和实验规模的热氧化分析（锥量热法）。等温测试，结合质谱分析，已经阐明了在热解条件下发生的事件链，而火测试揭示了可燃性和整体动力学和放热性。该方法应用于聚羟基丁酸酯（PHB）、聚（3-羟基丁酸酯-co-3-羟基戊酸酯）（PHBV）和PHBV-甲苯的混合物。确定了液化聚合物的气相生成量是决定反应速率的物质，确定了巴豆酸是决定聚合物气相反应活性的物质。虽然在湿聚合物降解过程中观察到两种可区分的行为，但每一种行为都归因于纯化合物，甲苯-聚合物相互作用被确定，允许实现适用于涉及湿聚合物的工业过程优化设计的先进模型。

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引用次数: 0

Development of an environmental-safety risk assessment model for firewater runoff in chemical storage facilities using a double materiality assessment 基于双重物质性评价的化学储存设施火水径流环境安全风险评价模型的建立

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105926

Cheolhee Yoon , Gyujin Han , Seungho Jung , Mimi Min

Fires at chemical storage facilities, though less frequent than at manufacturing sites, can cause severe secondary damage when contaminated firefighting water enters nearby waterways. Beyond environmental harm, such incidents can generate substantial corporate losses through remediation, compensation, and business interruption. This study positions firewater runoff prevention as both an ESG driven initiative and a practical form of sustainable management, and proposes a field validated grading framework that links ESG materiality to engineering style risk coding for pre incident prioritization.

On site investigations were conducted at 63 chemical storage facilities to identify structural and managerial risk factors and to construct an initial pool of 21 evaluation items. A double materiality assessment was then applied to screen the pool and select seven final indicators that balance feasibility with risk reduction effectiveness. These indicators were operationalized into a Risk Assessment Code scoring scheme and integrated into an environmental & safety grading matrix to support consistent, on-site decision making.

By linking runoff prevention directly to loss reduction and ESG performance, the proposed model provides a transparent and reproducible pathway for translating qualitative materiality judgments into quantitative risk grades using field derived evidence. Practically, it helps facility managers and regulators prioritize targeted mitigation actions to reduce both environmental impact and corporate losses.

化学品储存设施发生火灾的频率虽然低于生产场所，但当受污染的消防用水进入附近水道时，可能会造成严重的二次破坏。除了环境危害之外，此类事件还会通过补救、赔偿和业务中断给公司造成重大损失。本研究将火水径流预防定位为ESG驱动的倡议和可持续管理的实用形式，并提出了一个经过现场验证的分级框架，该框架将ESG重要性与工程风格的风险编码联系起来，以便在事件发生前确定优先级。对63个化学品储存设施进行了现场调查，以查明结构和管理上的风险因素，并建立了21个评价项目的初步库。然后应用双重重要性评估来筛选池，并选择七个最终指标，以平衡可行性和降低风险的有效性。这些指标被应用到风险评估代码评分方案中，并集成到环境和安全分级矩阵中，以支持一致的现场决策。通过将径流预防直接与减少损失和ESG绩效联系起来，所提出的模型提供了一个透明和可重复的途径，可以利用现场获得的证据将定性的重要性判断转化为定量的风险等级。实际上，它有助于设施管理人员和监管机构优先考虑有针对性的缓解行动，以减少环境影响和企业损失。

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引用次数: 0

Flash point prediction of ternary miscible organic mixtures using random forest regression 用随机森林回归预测三元混相有机混合物闪点

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105927

Shuangyu Song , Xiaoya Song

Measuring the flash points (FP) of multicomponent organic mixtures, which are widely used in the chemical industry, is a time-consuming and laborious process. Although numerous FP prediction models have been proposed, most of them focus on predicting the FP of pure components and binary mixtures, and few studies have addressed ternary or higher component mixtures. In this study, we measured the FPs of 341 compositions from six ternary aqueous–organic mixtures and developed a FP prediction model based on the quantitative structure–property relationship (QSPR) principle using the obtained data. Molecular descriptors for each component were generated using Dragon software, and the mixture descriptors were computed based on logarithmic mixing rules. During the model construction process, a multistage approach utilizing random forest regression (RFR) was employed to develop a highly precise model for predicting the FP values of ternary miscible organic mixtures. The results demonstrate that our proposed model is robust and predictive, achieving coefficient of determination (

R^{2}

), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 0.9641, 3.4086, 2.1961, and 0.6955%, respectively, on the test set. Furthermore, we compared our proposed model with other existing ternary mixture FP prediction methods from the literature to confirm its superiority. The results obtained her ein can be applied to assessments of fire and explosion hazards in the chemical industry and engineering.

多组分有机混合物的闪点（FP）测量是一项费时费力的工作，广泛应用于化工行业。虽然已经提出了许多FP预测模型，但大多数都集中在预测纯组分和二元混合物的FP，而很少有研究针对三元或更高组分的混合物。本研究测量了6种三元水-有机混合物中341种组分的FPs，并利用所得数据建立了基于定量构效关系（QSPR）原理的FP预测模型。利用Dragon软件生成各组分的分子描述符，并根据对数混合规则计算混合描述符。在模型构建过程中，采用随机森林回归（RFR）的多阶段方法建立了预测三元可混相有机混合物FP值的高精度模型。结果表明，该模型具有较强的稳健性和预测性，在测试集上的决定系数（R2）、均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）和平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）分别为0.9641、3.4086、2.1961和0.6955%。此外，我们将所提出的模型与文献中其他三元混合FP预测方法进行了比较，以证实其优越性。所得结果可应用于化学工业和工程中火灾和爆炸危险性的评价。

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引用次数: 0

Mitigating fire whirl hazards in vertically extended spaces of process facilities through water mist suppression 通过抑制水雾，减轻工艺设施垂直扩展空间中的火灾漩涡危险

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105955

RyhNan Pan , ShiuanCheng Wang , ChengLung Lee , ChungHwei Su

This study investigates the suppression of fire whirls in vertically extended factory-like enclosures using fine water mist. A one-tenth scale shaft model was used to examine two boundary conditions, an open top and a closed top, and two mist injection heights at 0 and 90 cm. Results show that mist introduced near the flame base provides the most effective reduction in flame height, burning duration, and upper-level temperatures, especially when the top is closed and the mist remains confined within the enclosure. Injection at 90 cm offers limited suppression because droplets seldom reach the core of the fire whirl. These findings demonstrate the importance of both enclosure configuration and nozzle placement in enhancing fire control in large industrial spaces.

本研究探讨了利用细水雾在垂直延伸的工厂式围场中抑制火涡。使用十分之一比例的轴模型来检查两种边界条件，开放顶部和封闭顶部，以及0和90 cm的两种喷雾高度。结果表明，在火焰底部附近引入的薄雾可以最有效地降低火焰高度，燃烧持续时间和上层温度，特别是当顶部关闭并且薄雾被限制在外壳内时。在90厘米处喷射的抑制作用有限，因为液滴很少到达火焰漩涡的核心。这些发现证明了外壳结构和喷嘴位置在加强大型工业空间消防控制方面的重要性。

引用次数: 0

Seismic resilience assessment of natural gas pipeline networks: an agent-based stochastic simulation approach 天然气管网地震弹性评估：基于agent的随机模拟方法

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105934

Huixian Shi , Xinxin Tan , Jie He , Min Jiang , Chao Chen

Seismic hazards unpredictably threaten critical infrastructure. Enhancing the seismic resilience of natural gas supply systems is paramount, given gas's vital role in the global energy transition towards carbon neutrality. Previous models for assessing the resilience fail to capture the complex dynamic evolution of pipeline network performance and account for the cumulative effects of aftershock sequences. Overcoming these limitations, this study proposes a novel quantitative model using pipeline network dynamic flow and agent-based simulation. The model conceptualizes pipeline network dynamics as emergent behavior from agent interactions under seismic excitation. Combining pipeline agent behavior with network fluid dynamics simulation provides timely transmission performance across stages. Besides, the ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence) model is employed to consider the effects of aftershock sequences on network performance. Furthermore, Monte Carlo simulation dynamically quantifies network transmission performance to obtain resilience values under stochastic hazard scenarios to account for uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and intensity. A case study illustrates the model's practical application. Results show that the proposed model effectively captures the dynamic system response from disruption to recovery. Moreover, cumulative seismic effects significantly prolong recovery times and amplify the performance degradation. Thus, aftershock sequences cannot be ignored in modeling natural gas pipeline seismic resilience.

地震灾害不可预测地威胁着关键的基础设施。鉴于天然气在全球能源向碳中和转型的过程中发挥着至关重要的作用，增强天然气供应系统的抗震能力至关重要。以往评估管网弹性的模型未能捕捉管网性能的复杂动态演变，也未能考虑余震序列的累积效应。为了克服这些局限性，本研究提出了一种基于管道网络动态流动和基于智能体仿真的新型定量模型。该模型将管网动力学概念化为地震激励下agent相互作用的紧急行为。将管道代理行为与网络流体动力学模拟相结合，可提供及时的跨级传输性能。此外，采用ETAS （Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence）模型考虑余震序列对网络性能的影响。此外，蒙特卡罗模拟动态量化网络传输性能，以获得随机灾害情景下的恢复力值，以考虑地震发生和强度的不确定性。实例分析说明了该模型的实际应用。结果表明，所提出的模型有效地捕捉了系统从中断到恢复的动态响应。此外，累积地震效应显著延长了恢复时间，加剧了性能下降。因此，在天然气管道的地震回弹性建模中，余震序列是不可忽视的。

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引用次数: 0

Static water spray model for radiation attenuation in fire simulations using FLACS 基于FLACS的火灾模拟中辐射衰减的静态水喷雾模型

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105960

Michał T. Lewandowski, Lorenzo Mauri, Deiveegan Muthusamy, Idar Storvik, Gordon Atanga, Yogesh Gawas, Connor Bloodworth, Djurre Siccama

Thermal radiation is a major contributor to heat transfer in fires, especially in medium- to large-scale industrial scenarios. Water spray systems are commonly used to mitigate this hazard by providing cooling and radiation shielding, helping to protect critical equipment and reduce the spread of fire. However, simulating such systems in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) using fully coupled multiphase models is often computationally prohibitive—particularly in large-scale risk assessments involving many scenarios. This study presents a simple Static Water Spray Model (SWSM) developed within the FLACS solver to provide an efficient alternative. The model estimates spatial distributions of water volume fraction and droplet size using empirical and physics-consistent relations. These distributions are then passed to the radiation solver based on the Discrete Transfer Method (DTM) to compute attenuation effects due to absorption and scattering. The SWSM is easy to define, requiring only few inputs, and computationally lightweight, making it suitable for full-scale simulations where practical engineering insights are needed with limited setup time. The model was first verified by comparison with detailed simulations from another model, the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), and subsequently validated using two independent experimental datasets. Finally, a large-scale industrial scenario involving a pool fire at a biogas facility was simulated to demonstrate its real-world applicability. The proposed approach offers a practical balance between simplicity, accuracy, and performance, and is well suited for use in fire safety engineering studies and early-stage design evaluations.

热辐射是火灾中传热的主要因素，特别是在中型到大型工业场景中。喷水系统通常用于通过提供冷却和辐射屏蔽来减轻这种危害，有助于保护关键设备并减少火灾的蔓延。然而，在计算流体动力学（CFD）中，使用完全耦合的多相模型来模拟这样的系统通常在计算上是令人望而却步的，特别是在涉及许多场景的大规模风险评估中。本研究提出了一个简单的静态水喷雾模型（SWSM），该模型是在FLACS求解器中开发的，以提供一个有效的替代方案。该模型利用经验和物理一致的关系估计水体积分数和液滴大小的空间分布。然后将这些分布传递给基于离散传递法（DTM）的辐射求解器，以计算由于吸收和散射引起的衰减效应。SWSM易于定义，只需要很少的输入，并且计算量很轻，因此适合在有限的设置时间内需要实际工程见解的全尺寸模拟。该模型首先通过与另一个模型Fire Dynamics Simulator （FDS）的详细模拟进行比较来验证，随后使用两个独立的实验数据集进行验证。最后，模拟了一个涉及沼气设施池火的大规模工业场景，以证明其在现实世界中的适用性。所提出的方法在简单性、准确性和性能之间提供了一个实际的平衡，非常适合用于消防安全工程研究和早期设计评估。

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引用次数: 0

Wetting characteristics of coal dust by rhamnolipid and chemical surfactant compound systems 鼠李糖脂与化学表面活性剂复合体系对煤尘润湿特性的影响

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105924

Lin-Quan Tong , Jiang-Shi Zhang , Zhong-Bin Zhang , Yong Cao , Yang Xiao , Xin Jia

To address the poor wetting performance of rhamnolipid on coal dust finer than 200 mesh and mitigate its adverse effects on workers and the environment, an efficient and environmentally friendly composite dust suppressant with both adhesive and wetting capabilities was developed. Through surface tension tests, contact angle analysis, and molecular dynamics simulations, OP-10 was identified as the optimal synergistic agent for rhamnolipid. Comprehensive evaluation confirmed that an OP-10-to-rhamnolipid ratio of 3:1 yielded the best performance: compared with single-component rhamnolipid, the composite system reduced surface tension by 0.57 mN/m, decreased contact angle by approximately 10°, and increased sedimentation rate by 1.4 mg/s. Scanning electron microscopy observations showed enhanced coal particle aggregation and adhesion, while stability analysis verified that the composite system avoided the poor stability of single rhamnolipid, ensuring long-term usability in mining environments. SEM observations revealed that the composite formulation significantly improved coal particle aggregation and adhesion. This composite suppressant not only addresses the inefficiency of pure water and single surfactants in coal dust control but also delivers significant environmental and occupational health benefits. Its compatibility with existing wet dust control technologies enables immediate industrial application, providing a practical solution for sustainable coal mine dust management.

为解决鼠李糖脂对200目以下煤粉润湿性能差的问题，减轻其对工人和环境的不利影响，研制了一种既具有粘接能力又具有润湿能力的高效环保型复合抑尘剂。通过表面张力测试、接触角分析和分子动力学模拟，确定OP-10为鼠李糖脂的最佳增效剂。综合评价表明，与单组分鼠李糖脂相比，op -10与鼠李糖脂比例为3:1的复合体系性能最佳，其表面张力降低0.57 mN/m，接触角降低约10°，沉降速率提高1.4 mg/s。扫描电镜观察表明，煤颗粒聚集性和黏附性增强，稳定性分析证实复合体系避免了单一鼠李糖脂稳定性差的问题，保证了在采矿环境中的长期可用性。SEM观察表明，复合配方显著改善了煤颗粒的聚集性和粘附性。这种复合抑制剂不仅解决了纯水和单一表面活性剂在煤尘控制中的低效率问题，而且还带来了显著的环境和职业健康效益。它与现有湿式粉尘控制技术的兼容性使其能够立即应用于工业，为可持续的煤矿粉尘管理提供了实用的解决方案。

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引用次数: 0

Construction and analysis of a chemical accidents causation network based on text mining: Evidence from China 基于文本挖掘的化工事故因果网络构建与分析：来自中国的证据

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105942

Siwei Lou, Shuang Yao

To effectively manage and control risks associated with chemical accidents, this paper aims to develop a quantitative risk analysis methodology. This methodology integrates text mining, association rules, complex network analysis, and Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) to investigate the causal factors and propagation paths of chemical accidents. First, this study performed text mining on 106 accident reports collected from China, identifying 54 major accident causal factors. To verify the reliability and cross-national universality of these factors, we compared the accident type distribution and the causal factor system with international research findings. The results demonstrated their universality and representativeness. Based on the strong association rules identified among these factors, this study constructed a chemical accident causation network. Subsequently, through the cross-validation of network centrality, robustness analysis, and Grey Relational Analysis, 15 key risk factors were definitively identified. Further accident path analysis revealed that management factors constitute the causation level most likely to lead to an accident. The analysis also successfully uncovered the critical causal paths for four different types of accidents. The findings of this research provide theoretical support for identifying key causes and controlling risk propagation, offering significant practical guidance for chemical safety production practices.

为了有效地管理和控制与化学品事故相关的风险，本文旨在建立一种定量的风险分析方法。该方法将文本挖掘、关联规则、复杂网络分析和灰色关联分析（GRA）相结合，研究化学事故的成因和传播路径。首先，本研究对从中国收集的106份事故报告进行了文本挖掘，确定了54个主要事故原因。为了验证这些因素的可靠性和跨国普遍性，我们将事故类型分布和因果因素系统与国际研究成果进行了比较。结果显示了其普遍性和代表性。基于这些因素之间的强关联规律，本研究构建了一个化工事故因果网络。随后，通过网络中心性交叉验证、鲁棒性分析和灰色关联分析，确定了15个关键风险因素。进一步的事故路径分析表明，管理因素构成了最可能导致事故的因果层次。分析还成功地揭示了四种不同类型事故的关键因果路径。研究结果为识别关键原因和控制风险传播提供了理论支持，对化工安全生产实践具有重要的实践指导意义。

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引用次数: 0

Addressing the challenges of operational mechanisms within safety case regime: A case study of China 应对安全案例制度下运行机制的挑战：以中国为例

IF 4.2 3区工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, CHEMICAL

Journal of Loss Prevention in The Process Industries

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2026.105936

Hao Chenyu , Fan Yunxiao , Xu Luyao , Yang Xiao , Ju Xing , Xu Haoyi , Pei Jingjing

Originally developed in the UK offshore sector, the Safety Case is a regulatory regime requiring operators to demonstrate that risks are adequately managed, and has been adopted by more countries and industries. However, many studies show that the operational mechanisms within Safety Case regime are highly susceptible to failure under differing regulatory contexts. This study aims to investigate how such failures occur and how to analyze and address the challenges of cross-contextual implementation. The Chinese case, characterized by long-standing implementation and a contrasting institutional context, provides an opportunity to examine how such regimes evolve and potentially fail under different regulatory contexts. This study examines the Chinese case through a combination of literature review, statistical analysis, and Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM). The findings indicate that differences in regulatory contexts induce functional variabilities in Safety Case, which may result in their diminished effectiveness or failure. For countries that have similar regulatory contexts to China, increasing business responsibility in Safety Case, enhancing third-party independence, and adopting a more cooperative and service-oriented position by regulators can help enhance the adaptability of the Safety Case regime. The study also demonstrates the value of FRAM in modeling institutional systems with complex interactions. By revealing how regulatory context shapes operational mechanisms, this research contributes to both theoretical understanding and practical reform of safety governance in diverse institutional settings.

安全案例最初是在英国海上行业开发的，是一种监管制度，要求作业者证明其风险得到了充分的管理，并已被更多国家和行业采用。然而，许多研究表明，在不同的监管背景下，安全案例制度的运作机制极易失效。本研究旨在探讨这些失败是如何发生的，以及如何分析和解决跨上下文实施的挑战。中国案例的特点是长期实施和不同的制度背景，这为研究这些制度在不同监管背景下的演变和潜在失败提供了机会。本研究采用文献综述、统计分析和功能共振分析法（FRAM）相结合的方法来研究中国的案例。研究结果表明，监管环境的差异会导致安全案例的功能变异，这可能导致其有效性降低或失败。对于与中国监管环境相似的国家，增加企业在安全案例中的责任，增强第三方独立性，监管机构采取更合作和服务导向的立场，有助于提高安全案例制度的适应性。研究还证明了FRAM在具有复杂相互作用的制度系统建模中的价值。通过揭示监管环境如何塑造运行机制，本研究有助于对不同制度环境下安全治理的理论理解和实践改革。

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引用次数: 0