Evolution and spatiotemporal analysis of earthquake public opinion based on social media data

Abstract

As critical conduits for the dissemination of online public opinion, social media platforms offer a timely and effective means for managing emergencies during major disasters, such as earthquakes. This study focuses on the analysis of online public opinions following the Maduo M7.4 earthquake in Qinghai Province and the Yangbi M6.4 earthquake in Yunnan Province. By collecting, cleaning, and organizing post-earthquake Sina Weibo (short for Weibo) data, we employed the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to extract information pertinent to public opinion on these earthquakes. This analysis included a comparison of the nature and temporal evolution of online public opinions related to both events. An emotion analysis, utilizing an emotion dictionary, categorized the emotional content of post-earthquake Weibo posts, facilitating a comparative study of the characteristics and temporal trends of online public emotions following the earthquakes. The findings were visualized using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The analysis revealed certain commonalities in online public opinion following both earthquakes. Notably, the peak of online engagement occurred within the first 24 hours post-earthquake, with a rapid decline observed between 24 to 48 hours thereafter. The variation in popularity of online public opinion was linked to aftershock occurrences. Adjusted for population factors, online engagement in areas surrounding the earthquake sites and in Sichuan Province was significantly high. Initially dominated by feelings of “fear” and “surprise”, the public sentiment shifted towards a more positive outlook with the onset of rescue operations. However, distinctions in the online public response to each earthquake were also noted. Following the Yangbi earthquake, Yunnan Province reported the highest number of Weibo posts nationwide; in contrast, Qinghai Province ranked third post-Maduo earthquake, attributable to its smaller population size and extensive damage to communication infrastructure. This research offers a methodological approach for the analysis of online public opinion related to earthquakes, providing insights for the enhancement of post-disaster emergency management and public mental health support.