Perceived business risks and observed impacts of the Russian-Ukraine war among small- and medium-sized agri-food value chain enterprises in Egypt

Abstract

We examine the perceived business risks and impacts on performance associated with the Russian aggression in Ukraine in February 2022 among 450 Egyptian small and medium-sized agrifood enterprises. Our analysis identifies six distinct clusters of enterprises based on their perceived risks and three clusters based on the observed impacts of the war. We find a strong association between perceived business risks and observed impacts, suggesting that the risks identified by agrifood SMEs significantly influence their actual business performance. This underscores the importance of understanding and effectively managing perceived risks to mitigate the negative impacts of external shocks, enhance operational resilience, and improve overall performance. Moreover, the results indicate that the consequences of the war extend beyond direct effects on agrifood enterprises, affecting various stages of the agrifood chain. This implies that, in times of crisis, the absence of a well-functioning agrifood SME sector may threaten the sustainability of the entire agrifood value chain. These insights contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the experiences of agrifood SMEs during the early stages of the war, helping policymakers and enterprises prioritize risk management strategies and allocate resources effectively to enhance performance and competitiveness in times of crisis.