Predicting the effect of climate change and management on net carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystems of the European part of Russia with the complex of models

Abstract

The objectives of sustainable development require the ability to estimate potential changes in net carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems (including changes in biomass, mortmass, and soil organic matter) under possible climate change and different forest management strategies. Such estimates require consideration of different ecosystem components and processes. To achieve this goal, we have integrated several ecological models (dynamic stand model FORRUS-S, soil organic matter model Romul_Hum, statistical climate generator SCLISS and process-based forest ecosystem model EFIMOD3) to simulate the ecosystem dynamics at the regional level in several study areas within the forest zone of the European part of Russia. The simulation results reflected both the direct effects of climate change and forest management actions on ecosystem carbon pools, and the indirect effects through changes in species composition. The simulation experiments were spatially detailed at the level of individual forest management units, thereby revealing the influence of habitat conditions on the rate of carbon sequestration under the influence of environmental factors. We found that net carbon sequestration in all major ecosystem pools was mostly positive, ranging between 0 and 1.45 t ha year⁻¹ depending on study area and simulation scenario. Higher accumulation was typically observed in medium-rich and rich habitat types with mesic moistening. In the long term, the effect of climate change was found to be comparable to the effect of management interventions.