Ecological Modelling最新文献

Suitability analysis for urban oasis gardens: mapping potential sites in Biskra, Algeria 城市绿洲花园的适宜性分析：绘制阿尔及利亚比斯克拉的潜在地点

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111514

Kenza Torai , Soumia Bouzaher , Silvio Caputo , Valentina Manente , Mohammed Khelili

The rapid urbanisation of Biskra, a Saharan city whose environmental balance historically depended on its oasis gardens, has accelerated agricultural land loss and driven a sustained decline in vegetation cover. These changes have intensified local heat exposure and weakened ecological and cultural systems that once shaped the city’s identity. Although green infrastructure is increasingly recognised for mitigating heat stress, limited research has examined how oasis-based landscapes can be translated into spatial tools for planning decisions in arid environments. Existing studies largely document environmental change without providing operational support for planning tools in Algeria, leaving a clear gap in guidance for prioritising green infrastructure interventions. In response, this study applies a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis to develop a spatial tool for planning support. The Analytic Hierarchy Process guides the weighting of fourteen temporally and spatially relevant indicators, including land surface temperature, population density, green space availability and land-use patterns, which are integrated to assess suitability for reintroducing oasis gardens within the city’s expanding urban fabric. The framework provides a practical baseline for current planning needs and can be updated as urban conditions evolve. The analysis indicates that approximately 41% of the study area offers moderate to high potential for oasis garden reintroduction. These zones align with areas showing elevated land surface temperatures and limited vegetation cover, indicating where interventions could most effectively improve local environmental conditions. The findings offer actionable support for planning decisions in Biskra while establishing a transferable spatial approach for other arid cities facing similar pressures.

比斯克拉是一个撒哈拉城市，其环境平衡历史上依赖于其绿洲花园，它的快速城市化加速了农业用地的流失，并导致植被覆盖持续下降。这些变化加剧了当地的热暴露，削弱了曾经塑造城市身份的生态和文化系统。尽管人们越来越认识到绿色基础设施可以缓解热应激，但有限的研究已经探讨了如何将基于绿洲的景观转化为干旱环境中规划决策的空间工具。现有的研究大多记录了环境变化，但没有为阿尔及利亚的规划工具提供业务支持，这在优先考虑绿色基础设施干预措施的指导方面留下了明显的空白。为此，本研究应用基于gis的多准则分析来开发空间规划支持工具。层次分析法指导了14个时间和空间相关指标的权重，包括地表温度、人口密度、绿地可用性和土地利用模式，这些指标被综合起来评估在城市不断扩大的城市结构中重新引入绿洲花园的适宜性。该框架为当前的规划需求提供了一个实用的基线，并可以随着城市条件的变化而更新。分析表明，约41%的研究区具有中高水平的绿洲园林再引入潜力。这些区域与地表温度升高和植被覆盖有限的地区一致，表明干预措施可以最有效地改善当地环境条件。研究结果为比斯克拉的规划决策提供了可操作的支持，同时为面临类似压力的其他干旱城市建立了可转移的空间方法。

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引用次数: 0

Guerrilla clonal growth strategy leads to amorphous pattern formation in a drylands vegetation model 游击克隆生长策略导致干旱地植被模式无定形的形成

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111510

Andrea Davin , Jost von Hardenberg , Paul M.J. Berghuis , Ángeles G. Mayor , Enrico Magazzino , Max Rietkerk , Frits Veerman , Mara Baudena

Resource concentration in the vicinity of plants is observed in drylands as a result of various mechanisms, developed to cope with water scarcity. This often leads to self-organized spatial patterns that enhance drylands’ ecosystem resilience to environmental changes. Numerous vegetation dynamics models have been developed over the past few decades to study this pattern formation. Generally, they represent plant spatial spread as a diffusive process, which captures well species that reproduce via seed dispersal or through clonal growth following the “phalanx” strategy, characterized by slow, compact expansion. However, many dryland species exhibit “guerrilla” clonal growth, characterized by rapid, directional exploration of favourable areas, which is poorly captured by diffusion. To address this limitation, we introduce a novel term for lateral biomass expansion into a classical dryland model.

We found conditions suitable for periodic patterns to emerge with a Turing analysis, aiming to test the stability of a uniform solution against uniform and periodic perturbations. However, numerically, these patterns could not be observed by perturbing the homogeneous equilibria with small perturbations, possibly because of the non-linearity of the guerrilla expansion term. Instead, remarkably, the model produced amorphous, far-from-equilibrium patterns when integrated along a rainfall precipitation gradient.

These findings highlight the need to represent the diversity of clonal plant strategies in dryland ecosystem models, as they play an important role in pattern formation and, thus, may influence ecosystem resilience and responses to global environmental change. Furthermore, our results highlight the need to move beyond linear analyses when studying systems with nonlinear dispersal dynamics.

在干旱地区，植物附近的资源集中是为应对缺水而开发的各种机制的结果。这往往会导致自组织的空间格局，增强旱地生态系统对环境变化的适应能力。在过去的几十年里，人们建立了许多植被动力学模型来研究这种格局的形成。一般来说，它们代表了植物空间传播的扩散过程，它很好地捕获了通过种子传播或通过克隆生长遵循“密集”策略进行繁殖的物种，其特征是缓慢而紧凑的扩张。然而，许多旱地物种表现出“游击式”无性系生长，其特点是快速、定向地探索有利的区域，而这些区域很少被扩散捕获。为了解决这一限制，我们在经典的旱地模型中引入了一个新的术语来表示横向生物量扩张。我们通过图灵分析发现了适合周期性模式出现的条件，旨在测试均匀解对均匀和周期性扰动的稳定性。然而，在数值上，这些模式不能通过用小扰动扰动齐次平衡来观察到，可能是因为游击展开项的非线性。相反，值得注意的是，当沿着降雨梯度集成时，该模型产生了无定形的，远离平衡的模式。这些发现强调了在旱地生态系统模型中体现克隆植物策略多样性的必要性，因为它们在模式形成中起着重要作用，因此可能影响生态系统的恢复力和对全球环境变化的响应。此外，我们的研究结果强调，在研究具有非线性扩散动力学的系统时，需要超越线性分析。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying connectivity between functional fish habitats: A novel energy-based approach assessing multiple pathways 量化功能性鱼类栖息地之间的连通性：一种新的基于能量的方法来评估多种途径

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111515

P. Holzapfel , D. Wildt , L. Schmalfuss , G. Pasternack , C. Hauer

Fluvial ecosystems exhibit spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability, forming dynamic mosaics of interconnected habitat patches essential for fish life cycles. Access to distinct functional habitat units is crucial for survival and development across different life stages. Despite its importance, habitat connectivity modeling, particularly at the microhabitat scale, has rarely been applied in riverine research. To address this gap, we introduce Pathways, a Python-based algorithm that maps potential movement paths between patches within 2D depth-averaged hydrodynamic flow fields. Habitat Suitability Modeling is used to identify habitats of interest, while pathway feasibility is assessed by intersecting flow fields with fatigue curves that account for swimming performance. In this approach the energetic cost of each path is quantified as the time-integrated swimming power required to traverse the fluid velocity field. Habitat connectivity is assessed using the Habitat Connectivity Index (HCI), calculated by dividing the Weighted Usable Area of each accessible target patch by the median path energy cost of all modeled paths from a starting patch. This approach was tested on a riffle–pool reach of the Gail River, Austria, focusing on grayling larvae (Thymallus thymallus). Results revealed significant variations in habitat connectivity across spawning site locations and flow conditions. Mean HCI values ranged from 69.8 m²mJ⁻¹ under low-flow conditions to 3.4 m²mJ⁻¹ at mean high flow, highlighting the influence of discharge on habitat accessibility. This study provides a microhabitat-level quantification of grayling post-emergence habitat connectivity and introduces a novel framework for assessing fish dispersal and habitat accessibility.

河流生态系统表现出空间异质性和时间变异性，形成了相互关联的栖息地斑块的动态马赛克，这对鱼类的生命周期至关重要。获得不同功能的栖息地单元对于不同生命阶段的生存和发展至关重要。尽管生境连通性模型具有重要意义，但在河流研究中很少应用，特别是在微生境尺度上。为了解决这一问题，我们引入了Pathways，这是一种基于python的算法，可以在二维深度平均流体动力流场中映射斑块之间的潜在移动路径。生境适宜性建模用于识别感兴趣的生境，而路径可行性是通过将流场与疲劳曲线相交来评估的。在这种方法中，每条路径的能量消耗被量化为穿越流体速度场所需的时间积分游泳功率。利用生境连通性指数（HCI）对生境连通性进行评估，该指数通过将每个可达目标斑块的加权可用面积除以从起始斑块开始的所有建模路径的中位数路径能量成本来计算。这种方法在奥地利盖尔河的一个小水塘河段进行了试验，重点是灰鲑幼虫（胸腺鱼）。结果表明，不同产卵地点和水流条件下的栖息地连通性存在显著差异。平均HCI值从低流量条件下的69.8 m²mJ - 1到平均高流量条件下的3.4 m²mJ - 1不等，突出了流量对栖息地可达性的影响。本研究提供了一种微生境水平的灰鱼出现后栖息地连通性量化，并引入了一种评估鱼类扩散和栖息地可达性的新框架。

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引用次数: 0

Emergy quantification of economic-social-ecological losses under water supply-demand dual regulation during mega-droughts 特大干旱供需双调节下经济社会生态损失的能量量化

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111508

Xi Guo, Weijing Wang, Cuimei Lv, Chentao He, Qianqian Cao

Scientifically quantifying the losses caused by supply-demand dual regulation measures under extreme drought conditions constitutes the fundamental basis for effectively addressing urban mega-droughts and mitigating their disaster impacts. To address the quantification of the comprehensive losses in regional ecological-economic systems resulting from bidirectional water supply-demand regulation under extreme drought conditions, this study introduces emergy theory to construct a loss quantification framework based on this approach. Specifically, on the supply side, it primarily considers the costs of tapping potential water sources and the resulting ecological and environmental damage, while on the demand side, it focuses mainly on the socio-economic losses due to water shortages and the negative ecological and environmental impacts caused by water use reduction. The framework is applied and validated using the case of the 2011 extreme drought in Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunnan Province. The results indicate that in Chuxiong Prefecture, the supply-side regulation cost was 4.76 × 10²⁰sej, equivalent to 1.356 billion EmCNY based on the emergy/money ratio, while the demand-side water restriction loss was 3.58 × 10²⁰ sej, equivalent to 1.019 billion EmCNY. The total economic-social-ecological loss from dual supply-demand regulation reached 2.375 billion EmCNY. In conclusion, the quantitative assessment of economic-social-ecological losses under dual-directional supply-demand regulation provides scientific support for extreme drought risk evaluation, government emergency response planning, and post-disaster recovery/reconstruction decision-making, thereby enhancing disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities.

科学量化极端干旱条件下供需双调控措施造成的损失，是有效应对城市特大干旱和减轻特大干旱灾害影响的根本依据。为解决极端干旱条件下供需双向调节对区域生态经济系统综合损失的量化问题，本研究在此基础上引入能值理论构建了损失量化框架。具体而言，在供给侧，主要考虑潜在水源的开采成本和由此造成的生态环境破坏；在需求侧，主要关注水资源短缺造成的社会经济损失和减少用水对生态环境的负面影响。以2011年云南省楚雄州极端干旱为例，对该框架进行了应用和验证。结果表明：楚雄州供能侧调控成本为4.76 × 1020sej，按能钱比计算，折合人民币13.56亿元；需求侧限水损失为3.58 × 1020sej，折合人民币10.19亿元。供需双调控造成的经济社会生态损失达23.75亿元。综上所述，供需双向调节下的经济-社会-生态损失定量评估可为极端干旱风险评估、政府应急规划和灾后恢复重建决策提供科学依据，从而提高防灾减灾能力。

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引用次数: 0

Advances and challenges in multi‑scale water environment system modeling: from process simulation to a novel simulator architecture 多尺度水环境系统建模的进展与挑战：从过程模拟到新型模拟器架构

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111498

Rui Xia , Sheng Chen , Yan Ding , Mingdong Sun , Yali Wu , Kaifang Shi , Yajing Cai , Kai Zhang , Yan Chen , Lei Zou

Water ecological environment models serve as essential scientific tools for watershed ecological governance and management, yet they still exhibit notable limitations in systematicity, accuracy, and adaptability when addressing complex multi‑media and cross‑scale ecosystems. Current research lacks a systematic synthesis of the evolutionary pathways of multi‑scale models and has not fully integrated the strengths of artificial intelligence (AI) and mechanistic modeling, which constrains breakthroughs in water ecological system simulation from methodology to application. This paper systematically reviews the development trajectories and typical applications of water ecological environment models across different scales—including watersheds, rivers, lakes/reservoirs, urban water systems, and marine environments—proposes a “source‑flow‑network‑sink” multi‑process coupled systemic architecture, and explores pathways for integrating AI and environmental foundation models into simulation and prediction. The study finds that water ecological simulation in China urgently needs to shift from imported applications toward independent innovation and standardized development. Priority should be given to developing multi‑model coupling architectures with independent intellectual property, establishing localized parameter databases, and deeply incorporating AI and big‑data methods in model calibration, prediction, and uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the research highlights that building intelligent simulator systems and promoting their operational application is a critical pathway for enhancing ecological risk early‑warning and decision‑support capabilities.

水生态环境模型是流域生态治理和管理的重要科学工具，但在处理复杂的多媒体和跨尺度生态系统时，其系统性、准确性和适应性仍存在明显的局限性。目前的研究缺乏对多尺度模型演化路径的系统综合，也没有充分融合人工智能和机制建模的优势，制约了水生态系统模拟从方法论到应用的突破。本文系统回顾了水生态环境模型在流域、河流、湖泊/水库、城市水系和海洋环境等不同尺度上的发展轨迹和典型应用，提出了“源-流-网-汇”多过程耦合系统架构，探索了人工智能与环境基础模型集成到模拟与预测中的途径。研究发现，中国水生态模拟急需从引进应用转向自主创新和规范发展。重点发展具有自主知识产权的多模型耦合体系结构，建立本地化的参数数据库，在模型标定、预测和不确定度量化等方面深入融合人工智能和大数据方法。此外，研究强调，构建智能模拟器系统并促进其操作应用是增强生态风险预警和决策支持能力的关键途径。

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引用次数: 0

Generalized EPICS (gEPICS): Handling species extinctions in predicting microbial community structures using effective pairwise interactions 广义EPICS (gEPICS)：利用有效的两两相互作用处理物种灭绝预测微生物群落结构

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111505

Aadhil Basith A , Gayathri Sambamoorthy , Kartikeya Aditya , Aamir Faisal Ansari , Bharat Cheviti , Yugandhar B.S. Reddy , Janhavi Raut , Narendra M. Dixit

Predicting the structures of multispecies microbial communities requires knowledge of the underlying interspecies interactions. EPICS, an efficient and scalable method, employs steady-state data from monocultures and leave-one-out subcommunities together with mathematical modelling to estimate effective pairwise interactions between species and accurately predicts community structures. A limitation, however, is its inability to handle scenarios wherein some species become extinct in leave-one-out subcommunities, restricting its scope. Here, we develop a generalization of EPICS (gEPICS) that overcomes this limitation. We reformulate the mathematical model in EPICS, built using the generalized Lotka-Volterra (GLV) equations, by accounting for missing species. This yields an under-determined system of equations in the unknown effective pairwise interaction coefficients. We estimate the coefficients using the Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse. With these coefficients, we apply the model to predict community structures. We test gEPICS on a large number of in silico communities and find that it robustly predicts community structures. Its accuracy decreases with the number of missing species but increases with the total number of species involved, rendering it particularly suited to large communities. We apply it to two experimental systems from the literature, an 8-species synthetic soil microbial community and a 12-species synthetic gut microbial community. gEPICS accurately captures the structures of both the communities, demonstrating its applicability to diverse settings. gEPICS would serve as a useful tool to estimate interspecies interactions and engineer multispecies microbial communities.

预测多物种微生物群落的结构需要了解潜在的物种间相互作用。EPICS是一种高效且可扩展的方法，它利用来自单一栽培和留一亚群落的稳态数据，结合数学模型来估计物种之间有效的成对相互作用，并准确预测群落结构。然而，它的一个限制是，它无法处理一些物种在“留一个”亚群落中灭绝的情况，这限制了它的范围。在这里，我们开发了EPICS的一般化（gEPICS），克服了这一限制。我们利用广义Lotka-Volterra （GLV）方程重新制定了EPICS中的数学模型，考虑了缺失物种。这就产生了一个未知有效两两相互作用系数的待定方程组。我们使用Moore-Penrose伪逆估计系数。利用这些系数，我们应用该模型来预测群落结构。我们在大量的计算机社区中测试了gEPICS，发现它可以稳健地预测社区结构。它的准确性随着缺失物种的数量而降低，但随着所涉及物种的总数而增加，这使得它特别适合于大型群落。我们将其应用于文献中的两个实验系统，一个8种合成土壤微生物群落和一个12种合成肠道微生物群落。gEPICS准确地捕获了这两个群落的结构，证明了它对不同环境的适用性。gEPICS将成为估计物种间相互作用和设计多物种微生物群落的有用工具。

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引用次数: 0

Wildfire hazard modelling in the Ahafo Region of Ghana using GIS–based Multi- criteria decision-making analysis 利用基于gis的多准则决策分析在加纳阿哈福地区建立野火灾害模型

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111494

Mary Antwi , Camila Sanyarebeka , Emmanuel Abisah Adu , Solomon Akubire Afour

Forest fire is a devastating phenomenon that causes huge losses of lives, properties, and ecologies, especially in peri‑urban settlements. This study investigates forest fires to identify, classify, and map hazard areas and aid decision-making during interventions and management in the Ahafo Region of Ghana. The assessment considered five risk sub-models i.e. ignition, detection, response, fuel, and climate factor models in an integrated GIS-MCDA model and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Twelve factor criteria were selected for the wildfire modelling considering their relative importance to wildfire as well as other related characteristics. The final wildfire hazard map was subsequently created by utilizing ArcMap 10.8 weighted sum technique to construct and integrate each of the five sub-models. Results from the analysis revealed that, approximately an area of 2257.36 km² was found to be under high to very high fuel risk, representing 43.5% whereas the high ignition risk areas within the forest cover a total area of 4480.4 km² representing 86.3% of the study area. A large extent of the area covers moderate to very low response zones and constitutes a total area of 4762.7 km² being 91.7% of the study area. The detection risk model suggests that visible areas constitute a total area of 4257.4km² (82%), while obscured areas occupy the remaining 935.7km² (18%). The resultant final wildfire hazard map indicates that the northeastern portion of the study area has a high fire hazard potential and covers an area of approximately 2856.2 km² representing 55% of the total area. The results from the study imply that the forest ecology of the Ahafo region is under high threats of wildfire. The study recommends that the National Disaster Management Organization and Ghana National Fire Service should employ wildfire hazard maps to aid fire management and decision-making on interventions for optimal fire control.

森林火灾是一种破坏性现象，造成巨大的生命、财产和生态损失，尤其是在城市周边住区。本研究调查了加纳阿哈福地区的森林火灾，以确定、分类和绘制危险区域，并为干预和管理期间的决策提供帮助。该评估综合考虑了GIS-MCDA模型和层次分析法（AHP）中的着火、检测、响应、燃料和气候因子五个风险子模型。考虑到它们对野火以及其他相关特征的相对重要性，为野火建模选择了12个因素标准。最后利用ArcMap 10.8加权求和技术对5个子模型进行构建和整合，得到最终的野火灾害图。结果表明，森林内高至极高火险区面积约为2257.36 km2，占43.5%；森林内高火险区面积为4480.4 km2，占86.3%。区内大部分为中至极低响应区，总面积4762.7 km2，占研究区面积的91.7%。检测风险模型表明，可见区域占总面积4257.4km2(82%)，而遮挡区域占剩余的935.7km2（18%）。结果表明，研究区东北部具有较高的火灾危险性，面积约为2856.2 km2，占总面积的55%。研究结果表明，阿哈福地区的森林生态面临着严重的野火威胁。该研究建议，国家灾害管理组织和加纳国家消防局应该使用野火危险地图来帮助火灾管理和决策，以实现最佳的火灾控制。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of different coping strategies in foragers dealing with predators and non-predators: a spatial agent-based modelling account 觅食者在面对捕食者和非捕食者时不同应对策略的影响：一个基于空间主体的模型解释

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111476

J. Fransje van Weerden , Rineke Verbrugge , Jan Komdeur

Group living benefits foraging individuals by improving their survival through passive risk dilution by sheer numbers and increasingly active processes, ranging from cue transmission to alarm calling. Focusing on the lower end of this range: an involuntary visual cue can be given by a fleeing action, leading to cue transmission within a group. Our model is a bottom-up model of foragers as agents embodied in a simple environment, with only assumptions about basic living competences, valid for a wide range of species, leading to conclusions about benefits of group living without calling on higher cognition.

We use an agent-based, spatially explicit C++-model to investigate the effect of predator disturbances, to which always fleeing is the appropriate reaction. To make the environment more realistic and to include not only predators, we added harmless passers-by that cause false, unnecessary, fleeing. We set out to investigate whether adaptive behaviour could improve outcomes: We investigated whether two common subconscious behaviours can mitigate the detrimental effects of false fleeing. The first is “experience gain”, a sensory change; the second is “fear updating,” an emotional change.

To implement these behaviours we needed to: 1) model the anti-predator behaviour chain of “detection, recognition, and response” for which we added a recognition phase, 2) handle the combined probabilities of the detection and recognition sigmoids, and 3) define the initial settings for the three fear levels we added: one each for predator and passer-by and one for the environment, needed for the response in case of detection without recognition. These modelling decisions are shown to be very important. Situations with new predators or newly released groups can be mapped to these initial settings, distinguishing whether the forager group encounters a familiar predator type or a novel one, for instance, giving insight into what is most important for forager groups.

群体生活有利于觅食个体，通过被动的数量风险稀释和越来越积极的过程（从信号传递到警报呼叫）来提高它们的生存能力。专注于这个范围的低端：一个逃跑的动作可以提供一个无意识的视觉线索，导致线索在一个群体中传播。我们的模型是一个自下而上的模型，将觅食者作为个体体现在一个简单的环境中，只假设基本的生活能力，适用于广泛的物种，得出关于群体生活的好处的结论，而不需要更高的认知。我们使用一个基于代理的，空间显式的c++模型来研究捕食者干扰的影响，其中逃跑总是适当的反应。为了使环境更加真实，不仅包括捕食者，我们还添加了无害的路人，导致虚假的，不必要的逃跑。我们着手调查适应性行为是否能改善结果：我们调查了两种常见的潜意识行为是否能减轻虚假逃跑的有害影响。第一个是“经验积累”，一种感官上的改变；第二种是“恐惧更新”，一种情绪变化。为了实现这些行为，我们需要：1)建立反捕食者行为链的“检测、识别和响应”模型，我们为此添加了一个识别阶段；2)处理检测和识别s型曲线的组合概率；3)定义我们添加的三个恐惧级别的初始设置：一个针对捕食者和路人，一个针对环境，在检测而不识别的情况下需要做出反应。这些建模决策是非常重要的。有新的捕食者或新释放的群体的情况可以映射到这些初始设置，例如，区分觅食群体遇到的是熟悉的捕食者类型还是新的捕食者类型，从而洞察对觅食群体来说最重要的是什么。

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引用次数: 0

Intraspecific aggregation from local dispersal mediates transient species coexistence in plant communities 植物群落中局部扩散的种内聚集介导了物种的短暂共存

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111503

Zhen Han , Zhixia Ying , Xiaobo Liu , Shiyan Wang , Zhiwei Guan , Long Sun

Understanding how niche and spatial processes jointly maintain biodiversity remains a key challenge in ecology. Using a spatially explicit cellular automaton framework, we analyzed plant coexistence dynamics across flooding gradients by simultaneously incorporating species hydrological niche, mixed dispersal strategies (ratios of global seed dispersal to local clonal growth), and intra- and interspecific neighborhood competitive interactions. Our results reveal three fundamental insights: First, niche differentiation along hydrological gradients enables stable coexistence even when intraspecific competition is weaker than interspecific competition. Second, local dispersal reproduction confers competitive advantage in heterogeneous habitats by forming spatial aggregations and minimizing propagule wastage. Third, while local dispersal-driven intraspecific aggregation prolongs coexistence by alleviating interspecific competitive interactions, it merely delays rather than prevents competitive exclusion, underscoring the transient nature of spatially-mediated coexistence. These findings advance coexistence theory by integrating environmental gradients with spatial demographic processes, and provide critical mechanistic insights for wetland biodiversity conservation.

了解生态位和空间过程如何共同维持生物多样性仍然是生态学的一个关键挑战。利用空间显式元胞自动机框架，通过同时考虑物种水文生态位、混合传播策略（全球种子传播与当地克隆生长的比率）以及种内和种间邻居竞争相互作用，分析了植物在洪水梯度中的共存动态。我们的研究结果揭示了三个基本的见解：首先，沿着水文梯度的生态位分化即使在种内竞争弱于种间竞争的情况下也能实现稳定的共存。其次，局部分散繁殖通过形成空间聚集和减少繁殖浪费，在异质生境中赋予竞争优势。第三，虽然局部分散驱动的种内聚集通过减轻种间竞争相互作用延长了共存，但它只是延迟而不是阻止竞争排斥，强调了空间介导共存的短暂性。这些发现通过整合环境梯度和空间人口过程，进一步推进了共存理论，并为湿地生物多样性保护提供了重要的机制见解。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing fishing effort along the tropical tuna abundance-size spectrum 平衡沿热带金枪鱼丰度大小谱捕鱼努力

IF 3.2 3区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY

Ecological Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111495

Alex Tidd, Mariana Travassos Tolotti, Patrice Guillotreau, Nicolas Barrier, Laurent Dagorn

The ecosystem approach to fisheries is widely recognised as a key management goal, yet its definition and implementation remain debated. Most fisheries management relies on single-species strategies with technical measures to reduce bycatch. However, selective removals disrupt species composition, affecting ecosystem dynamics and resilience. We present a proof-of-concept model based on balanced harvesting that allocates fishing pressure proportionally across three tuna stocks—yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus)—in the Indian Ocean according to their size-biomass ratios. The model optimises fishing effort by gear using a predefined objective function based on length-based population dynamics, ensuring a balanced harvest while maintaining each tuna species' biomass within its maximum sustainable yield (B_MSY) limit. By assigning fishing mortality (F-multiplier) to each fleet, the model aims to maintain, within the bounds of B_MSY for each stock, the ecosystem structure (based on size-abundance relationships) over a 20-year simulation. Results indicate significant reductions in fishing mortality across gears relative to 2020 levels. While some gears, such as purse seine free-school, show increased catches and revenues (146%), others, like purse seine log-school, experience declines (-22%). Overall, fishing at B_MSY improves total revenues and catches by 51% and 34%, respectively, compared to 2020. This work demonstrates that it is possible to maintain each tuna stock within B_MSY bounds by managing fishing fleets while preserving ecosystem structure, a significant goal of the ecosystem approach to fisheries.

渔业生态系统方法被广泛认为是一个关键的管理目标，但其定义和实施仍存在争议。大多数渔业管理依靠单一物种战略和技术措施来减少副渔获物。然而，选择性清除破坏了物种组成，影响了生态系统的动态和恢复力。我们提出了一个基于平衡捕捞的概念验证模型，该模型将捕捞压力按比例分配给印度洋三种金枪鱼种群——黄鳍金枪鱼（Thunnus albacares）、鲣鱼（Katsuwonus pelamis）和大眼金枪鱼（Thunnus obesus）——根据它们的大小与生物量比。该模型使用基于长度的种群动态的预定义目标函数来优化渔具的捕捞努力，确保平衡的收获，同时将每个金枪鱼物种的生物量保持在其最大可持续产量（BMSY）限制内。通过为每个船队分配捕捞死亡率（f乘数），该模型旨在在每个种群的BMSY范围内维持20年模拟的生态系统结构（基于大小-丰度关系）。结果表明，与2020年的水平相比，各年份的捕鱼死亡率显著降低。虽然一些项目（如围网自由学校）的渔获量和收入有所增加（146%），但其他项目（如围网伐木学校）的渔获量和收入却有所下降（-22%）。总体而言，与2020年相比，BMSY的捕捞总收入和渔获量分别提高了51%和34%。这项工作表明，在保护生态系统结构（渔业生态系统方法的一个重要目标）的同时，通过管理捕鱼船队，有可能将每个金枪鱼种群维持在BMSY范围内。

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引用次数: 0