Pub Date : 2024-11-30DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110959
Lakshitha Premathilake , Tarang Khangaonkar , James West , Sandra O'Neill , Louisa Harding , C. Andrew James , Sukyong Yun , Kevin Bogue
Puget Sound is an urban estuary that exhibits persistent polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) contamination despite years of remediation efforts. For robust management actions, determining the timing, location, and magnitude of PCB loading sources and transport pathways using field data alone is challenging due to complex water circulation and biogeochemical processes. This study aims to develop an integrated modeling framework that couples complex estuarian circulation with biogeochemical processes and associated interactions with PCB kinetics. The model simulates PCB accumulation in the lower tropic food web, demonstrating PCB intrusion into primary producers and its biomagnification in pelagic consumers. The PCB data from a new field survey was used to calibrate/validate the new PCB modeling framework for Puget Sound. The software program of the modeling framework is available to the user community for the applications of toxic contaminants transport in marine waters.
{"title":"Integrated modeling framework (FVCOM-ICM/Toxi) to simulate the fate and transport of polychlorinated biphenyls in urban estuaries–Case study for Puget Sound, WA","authors":"Lakshitha Premathilake , Tarang Khangaonkar , James West , Sandra O'Neill , Louisa Harding , C. Andrew James , Sukyong Yun , Kevin Bogue","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110959","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110959","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Puget Sound is an urban estuary that exhibits persistent polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) contamination despite years of remediation efforts. For robust management actions, determining the timing, location, and magnitude of PCB loading sources and transport pathways using field data alone is challenging due to complex water circulation and biogeochemical processes. This study aims to develop an integrated modeling framework that couples complex estuarian circulation with biogeochemical processes and associated interactions with PCB kinetics. The model simulates PCB accumulation in the lower tropic food web, demonstrating PCB intrusion into primary producers and its biomagnification in pelagic consumers. The PCB data from a new field survey was used to calibrate/validate the new PCB modeling framework for Puget Sound. The software program of the modeling framework is available to the user community for the applications of toxic contaminants transport in marine waters.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110959"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142744260","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-29DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110952
Ronald B. Bialozyt , Martina Roß-Nickoll , Richard Ottermanns , Jens Jetzkowitz
There are several concepts out there, which describe modelling as a circular process with several rounds of iteration. The aim of these concepts is to structure the process and gain insights into the various steps carried out during a modelling project. It is common to all these concepts that they are created by modellers themselves, hence the focus is on generating a good modelling practice (GMP) in standardising technical aspect. However, modelling must also be considered as a social process, which have so far only been marginally considered in these GMP protocols.
Therefore, we explored the different approaches to incorporate the social aspects into GMP of interdisciplinary applied modelling projects in sustainability science with reference to sociological knowledge. While discussing the social dimensions in the modelling process, we found that two perspectives need to be distinguished, namely a structural and a procedural one. From a structural perspective, various approaches have developed to model interactions and feedbacks between ecological and social aspects of a sustainability problem. Among the best known is the concept of the social-ecological system, which makes it possible to grasp the complexity of reality in ecological and social subsystems that are intertwined within each other. From a procedural perspective, several components describing decision points and feedback processes along the modelling pathway have been identified. This forms a new GMP scheme different from the so far published ones as it incorporates all the feedback loops active during the modelling process. It therefore breaks the so far common circular approach. The new scheme emphasises the fact that every model formation is a social, communicative process at all phases of a modelling project.
Additionally, we have gained new insights into the path dependency of model structures and identified an extended hierarchical structure of social modelling steps. Most importantly, we describe how the iterative application of these two perspectives should be used to improve the GMP of an active modelling project.
{"title":"The different ways to operationalise the social in applied models and simulations of sustainability science: A contribution for the enhancement of good modelling practices","authors":"Ronald B. Bialozyt , Martina Roß-Nickoll , Richard Ottermanns , Jens Jetzkowitz","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There are several concepts out there, which describe modelling as a circular process with several rounds of iteration. The aim of these concepts is to structure the process and gain insights into the various steps carried out during a modelling project. It is common to all these concepts that they are created by modellers themselves, hence the focus is on generating a good modelling practice (GMP) in standardising technical aspect. However, modelling must also be considered as a social process, which have so far only been marginally considered in these GMP protocols.</div><div>Therefore, we explored the different approaches to incorporate the social aspects into GMP of interdisciplinary applied modelling projects in sustainability science with reference to sociological knowledge. While discussing the social dimensions in the modelling process, we found that two perspectives need to be distinguished, namely a structural and a procedural one. From a structural perspective, various approaches have developed to model interactions and feedbacks between ecological and social aspects of a sustainability problem. Among the best known is the concept of the social-ecological system, which makes it possible to grasp the complexity of reality in ecological and social subsystems that are intertwined within each other. From a procedural perspective, several components describing decision points and feedback processes along the modelling pathway have been identified. This forms a new GMP scheme different from the so far published ones as it incorporates all the feedback loops active during the modelling process. It therefore breaks the so far common circular approach. The new scheme emphasises the fact that every model formation is a social, communicative process at all phases of a modelling project.</div><div>Additionally, we have gained new insights into the path dependency of model structures and identified an extended hierarchical structure of social modelling steps. Most importantly, we describe how the iterative application of these two perspectives should be used to improve the GMP of an active modelling project.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110952"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142744259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110955
Kjell Rong Utne , Erik Askov Mousing
The low number of Atlantic salmon sampled at sea makes it necessary to use alternative methods to understand their migration routes and interactions with the marine environment. In this study, we use a newly developed individual based model to simulate the ocean migration of Norwegian post-smolts during their first summer in the sea. The model is coupled with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model and dynamic prey fields to investigate how interactions between post-smolts and the dynamic marine environment in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean affect salmon growth and survival. The migration strategy leading to the best fit between the simulated geographic distribution and catches of post-smolts at sea, is to migrate away from shallow, coastal regions and to follow surface currents. Post-smolts originating from the middle parts of Norway can quickly reach the good feeding areas west of the Norwegian continental shelf, while post-smolts leaving rivers further south must start the marine life-stage migrating through the North Sea, where the prey abundance is low, before reaching the feeding areas in the Norwegian Sea. The results indicate that the first weeks at sea is a critical period for post-smolts as the available prey abundance is low, especially for smolts leaving rivers in southern and western Norway. A rapid northward migration to the central or northern Norwegian Sea is associated with faster growth for smolt emigrating from rivers flowing into the North Sea. The presented model is a first attempt to couple salmon and their marine prey in a spatiotemporal model covering the Northeast Atlantic Ocean.
{"title":"Regional differences in salmon post-smolt migration routes can explain variation in individual growth at sea","authors":"Kjell Rong Utne , Erik Askov Mousing","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110955","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110955","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The low number of Atlantic salmon sampled at sea makes it necessary to use alternative methods to understand their migration routes and interactions with the marine environment. In this study, we use a newly developed individual based model to simulate the ocean migration of Norwegian post-smolts during their first summer in the sea. The model is coupled with a high-resolution hydrodynamic model and dynamic prey fields to investigate how interactions between post-smolts and the dynamic marine environment in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean affect salmon growth and survival. The migration strategy leading to the best fit between the simulated geographic distribution and catches of post-smolts at sea, is to migrate away from shallow, coastal regions and to follow surface currents. Post-smolts originating from the middle parts of Norway can quickly reach the good feeding areas west of the Norwegian continental shelf, while post-smolts leaving rivers further south must start the marine life-stage migrating through the North Sea, where the prey abundance is low, before reaching the feeding areas in the Norwegian Sea. The results indicate that the first weeks at sea is a critical period for post-smolts as the available prey abundance is low, especially for smolts leaving rivers in southern and western Norway. A rapid northward migration to the central or northern Norwegian Sea is associated with faster growth for smolt emigrating from rivers flowing into the North Sea. The presented model is a first attempt to couple salmon and their marine prey in a spatiotemporal model covering the Northeast Atlantic Ocean.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110955"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721805","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-26DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110954
Caleb H. Geissler , Nathan L. Haan , Bruno Basso , Ames Fowler , Douglas A. Landis , Tyler J. Lark , Christos T. Maravelias
More sustainable agricultural methods are needed to alleviate the decreases in biodiversity and ecosystem services that have occurred because of industrial agriculture. One such method is the inclusion of alternative crops into croplands that can support biodiversity, reduce erosion and chemical runoff, and sequester carbon in the soil. However, the question of where such crops should be planted to balance competing economic and environmental objectives remains open. To this end, we develop a mixed-integer quadratically constrained program to optimize the layout of a cropland considering economic, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality objectives. We include spatially varying fertilization as a decision variable in addition to crop establishment location. We further include the effect of core area and edges between different crops on biodiversity. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we apply it to an example field, showing how the optimal cropland design changes as a decision-maker prioritizes different objectives and as edges have different impacts on biodiversity.
{"title":"A multi-objective optimization model for cropland design considering profit, biodiversity, and ecosystem services","authors":"Caleb H. Geissler , Nathan L. Haan , Bruno Basso , Ames Fowler , Douglas A. Landis , Tyler J. Lark , Christos T. Maravelias","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110954","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110954","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>More sustainable agricultural methods are needed to alleviate the decreases in biodiversity and ecosystem services that have occurred because of industrial agriculture. One such method is the inclusion of alternative crops into croplands that can support biodiversity, reduce erosion and chemical runoff, and sequester carbon in the soil. However, the question of where such crops should be planted to balance competing economic and environmental objectives remains open. To this end, we develop a mixed-integer quadratically constrained program to optimize the layout of a cropland considering economic, biodiversity, greenhouse gas emissions, and water quality objectives. We include spatially varying fertilization as a decision variable in addition to crop establishment location. We further include the effect of core area and edges between different crops on biodiversity. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, we apply it to an example field, showing how the optimal cropland design changes as a decision-maker prioritizes different objectives and as edges have different impacts on biodiversity.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110954"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721714","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-25DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110953
Tao Sun, Xinhua Zhang, Yujie Cai, Chun Yang, Zhurui Gao
Flash droughts are expected to become the 'new normal' in the future, significantly affecting the carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The rapid onset, swift intensification, and short duration of flash droughts make their impact on terrestrial carbon dynamics challenging to capture. To date, the response pattern of regional terrestrial carbon dynamics to flash droughts on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) remains unclear. Utilizing ERA5-Land soil moisture data, we identified numerous sub-seasonal flash drought events on the QTP by analyzing the decline rate of soil moisture and drought duration. Based on the dynamics of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gross primary productivity (GPP) changes observed during flash droughts, we proposed the Response Intensity Index (RII) to quantify the intensity of GPP responses to these events. Additionally, through partial correlation analysis, we examined the effects of climatic factors on GPP during flash droughts. We found that areas with high frequencies of flash droughts are distributed in the northern, eastern, and southeastern margins of the QTP (more than 1.6 times/year), while areas with low frequencies are located in the western region (less than 0.4 times/year). GPP significantly responded to 50.36% of the flash drought events on the QTP. The intensity of GPP response varied significantly among vegetation types, with meadow GPP exhibiting the highest responsiveness (RII of 1.867) and forest GPP the lowest (RII of 1.585). Climatic factors exerted significant effects on GPP during flash droughts, with variations observed across different vegetation types. Differences in GPP response to flash droughts may be attributed to vegetation type, climatic conditions, and the frequency and duration of flash droughts. These findings provide valuable insights for managing carbon sequestration in ecosystems, offering essential guidance for future environmental management, climate change adaptation, and ecological conservation.
{"title":"Response of gross primary productivity to flash droughts on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau","authors":"Tao Sun, Xinhua Zhang, Yujie Cai, Chun Yang, Zhurui Gao","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110953","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110953","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flash droughts are expected to become the 'new normal' in the future, significantly affecting the carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The rapid onset, swift intensification, and short duration of flash droughts make their impact on terrestrial carbon dynamics challenging to capture. To date, the response pattern of regional terrestrial carbon dynamics to flash droughts on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) remains unclear. Utilizing ERA5-Land soil moisture data, we identified numerous sub-seasonal flash drought events on the QTP by analyzing the decline rate of soil moisture and drought duration. Based on the dynamics of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) gross primary productivity (GPP) changes observed during flash droughts, we proposed the Response Intensity Index (RII) to quantify the intensity of GPP responses to these events. Additionally, through partial correlation analysis, we examined the effects of climatic factors on GPP during flash droughts. We found that areas with high frequencies of flash droughts are distributed in the northern, eastern, and southeastern margins of the QTP (more than 1.6 times/year), while areas with low frequencies are located in the western region (less than 0.4 times/year). GPP significantly responded to 50.36% of the flash drought events on the QTP. The intensity of GPP response varied significantly among vegetation types, with meadow GPP exhibiting the highest responsiveness (RII of 1.867) and forest GPP the lowest (RII of 1.585). Climatic factors exerted significant effects on GPP during flash droughts, with variations observed across different vegetation types. Differences in GPP response to flash droughts may be attributed to vegetation type, climatic conditions, and the frequency and duration of flash droughts. These findings provide valuable insights for managing carbon sequestration in ecosystems, offering essential guidance for future environmental management, climate change adaptation, and ecological conservation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110953"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110947
Mahdi Motakefi, Mehdi Dahmardeh, Seyed Ahmad Ghanbari, Mohammad Reza Asgharipour
This study evaluated the sustainability of five agricultural production systems (wheat, barley, alfalfa, cotton, and Pistachio) in the Goharkuh Taftan complex using emergy assessment and economic analysis. Pistachio exhibited the highest gross return (1200 million Rials/ha), net profit (850 million Rials/ha), benefit-to-cost ratio (3.43), transformity (Tr) (9.53E + 05 sej/j), specific emergy (2.37E + 10 sej/g), renewability index (%R) (15.12 %), modified emergy sustainability index (0.207), modified emergy yield ratio (1.397), and the lowest modified environmental loading ratio (5.61) among the various products within the complex, as determined through the integration of emergy assessment and economic analysis outcomes. The standard Environmental Loading Ratio (ELR) (143.16), standard Emergy Sustainability Index (ESI) (0.008), Emergy Index for Sustainable Development (EISD) (0.0028), and Emergy Index of Agricultural Product Safety (EIPS) (0.437) of this product were found to be in a favourable condition. On the other hand, cotton exhibited the least favourable performance in various emergy indicators, including the %R (2.07 %), ELR (344.13), ESI (0.003), EISD (0.0021), and EIPS (0.198) within the given context. The alfalfa product exhibiting the most unfavourable economic indicators demonstrated the highest EIPS (0.554) and the lowest Tr (1.34E + 05 sej/j) value among the various systems within the complex. Wheat and barley had similar emergy performance but were less profitable than pistachio and cotton. Reducing reliance on non-renewable resources and lowering costs for land, labor, seed, and machinery improved both emergy and economic indicators. The study revealed a trade-off between emergy and economic indicators in complex production systems. To enhance sustainability, balancing renewable and non-renewable resource use is crucial.
{"title":"A comparative study of production systems in the Goharkuh Taftan complex utilising emergy and economic analysis","authors":"Mahdi Motakefi, Mehdi Dahmardeh, Seyed Ahmad Ghanbari, Mohammad Reza Asgharipour","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110947","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110947","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluated the sustainability of five agricultural production systems (wheat, barley, alfalfa, cotton, and Pistachio) in the Goharkuh Taftan complex using emergy assessment and economic analysis. Pistachio exhibited the highest gross return (1200 million Rials/ha), net profit (850 million Rials/ha), benefit-to-cost ratio (3.43), transformity (Tr) (9.53E + 05 sej/j), specific emergy (2.37E + 10 sej/g), renewability index (%R) (15.12 %), modified emergy sustainability index (0.207), modified emergy yield ratio (1.397), and the lowest modified environmental loading ratio (5.61) among the various products within the complex, as determined through the integration of emergy assessment and economic analysis outcomes. The standard Environmental Loading Ratio (ELR) (143.16), standard Emergy Sustainability Index (ESI) (0.008), Emergy Index for Sustainable Development (EISD) (0.0028), and Emergy Index of Agricultural Product Safety (EIPS) (0.437) of this product were found to be in a favourable condition. On the other hand, cotton exhibited the least favourable performance in various emergy indicators, including the %R (2.07 %), ELR (344.13), ESI (0.003), EISD (0.0021), and EIPS (0.198) within the given context. The alfalfa product exhibiting the most unfavourable economic indicators demonstrated the highest EIPS (0.554) and the lowest Tr (1.34E + 05 sej/j) value among the various systems within the complex. Wheat and barley had similar emergy performance but were less profitable than pistachio and cotton. Reducing reliance on non-renewable resources and lowering costs for land, labor, seed, and machinery improved both emergy and economic indicators. The study revealed a trade-off between emergy and economic indicators in complex production systems. To enhance sustainability, balancing renewable and non-renewable resource use is crucial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110947"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-23DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110945
Madison E Brook , Kim Cuddington
Invasion risk and impact are related to the population growth rate of newly introduced species. We parameterized a temperature dependent age- and size-structured integral projection model (IPM) to predict the population growth rate of invasive grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) in North America. We formulated models using available data on temperature dependence in the age at maturity and fecundity for grass carp and found a small increase in population growth rate at higher temperatures. However, these models did not include potential temperature-dependence in other life history variables (e.g., somatic growth rate, maximum size, and survival) for which there is no data specific to grass carp. Inclusion of simulated temperature dependence in these important variables can reverse the trend in population growth rate and temperature, depending on which combination of life history traits are temperature-dependent. Elasticity analysis highlighted adult survival as a good management target to keep population growth rates small in all cases. We suggest that future studies regarding climate impacts on population growth will require detailed study of the impacts of temperature dependence on various life history traits in order to reach robust conclusions.
{"title":"Using a temperature-dependent population model to predict the population growth rates of grass carp across North America","authors":"Madison E Brook , Kim Cuddington","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110945","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110945","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Invasion risk and impact are related to the population growth rate of newly introduced species. We parameterized a temperature dependent age- and size-structured integral projection model (IPM) to predict the population growth rate of invasive grass carp (<em>Ctenopharyngodon idella</em>) in North America. We formulated models using available data on temperature dependence in the age at maturity and fecundity for grass carp and found a small increase in population growth rate at higher temperatures. However, these models did not include potential temperature-dependence in other life history variables (e.g., somatic growth rate, maximum size, and survival) for which there is no data specific to grass carp. Inclusion of simulated temperature dependence in these important variables can reverse the trend in population growth rate and temperature, depending on which combination of life history traits are temperature-dependent. Elasticity analysis highlighted adult survival as a good management target to keep population growth rates small in all cases. We suggest that future studies regarding climate impacts on population growth will require detailed study of the impacts of temperature dependence on various life history traits in order to reach robust conclusions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110945"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110948
Emily Neil, Ernesto Carrella, Richard Bailey
This paper presents a new ensemble ecosystem model (EEM) which predicts the impacts of species reintroductions and optimises potential future management interventions at the Knepp Estate rewilding project, UK. Compared to other EEMs, Knepp has a relatively high level of data availability that can be used to constrain the model, including time-series abundance data and expert knowledge. This could improve the realism of outputs and enable more nuanced and context-specific management intervention recommendations. Calibrating EEMs can be challenging, however, and as the number of constraints increases, so does the complexity of the model fitting process. We use a new Genetic Algorithm-Approximate Bayesian Computation (GA-ABC) approach wherein GA outputs are used to inform the prior distributions for ABC. To reduce the parameter search space, we fixed twelve parameters - the consumer self-interaction strengths and negative growth rates – based on theoretical assumptions. While the GA-ABC method proved effective at efficiently searching the parameter space and optimising multiple constraints, it was computationally intensive and struggled to identify a broad range of outputs. Ultimately, this led to an ensemble of models with similar trajectories. Several potential ways to address this are discussed. Our results reinforce the findings of previous studies that the EEM methodology has potential for guiding conservation management and decision-making. Outputs suggest that reintroducing large herbivores was key to maintaining a diverse grassland-scrubland-woodland ecosystem, and optimisation experiments informed species characteristics and stocking densities needed to achieve specific goals. Ultimately, refining the EEM methodology to improve calibration and facilitate the integration of additional data will enhance its utility for ecosystem management, helping to achieve more effective and informed outcomes.
{"title":"Calibrating multi-constraint ensemble ecosystem models using genetic algorithms and Approximate Bayesian Computation: A case study of rewilding at the Knepp Estate, UK","authors":"Emily Neil, Ernesto Carrella, Richard Bailey","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper presents a new ensemble ecosystem model (EEM) which predicts the impacts of species reintroductions and optimises potential future management interventions at the Knepp Estate rewilding project, UK. Compared to other EEMs, Knepp has a relatively high level of data availability that can be used to constrain the model, including time-series abundance data and expert knowledge. This could improve the realism of outputs and enable more nuanced and context-specific management intervention recommendations. Calibrating EEMs can be challenging, however, and as the number of constraints increases, so does the complexity of the model fitting process. We use a new Genetic Algorithm-Approximate Bayesian Computation (GA-ABC) approach wherein GA outputs are used to inform the prior distributions for ABC. To reduce the parameter search space, we fixed twelve parameters - the consumer self-interaction strengths <span><math><mrow><msub><mi>α</mi><mrow><mi>i</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>i</mi></mrow></msub><mspace></mspace></mrow></math></span>and negative growth rates – based on theoretical assumptions. While the GA-ABC method proved effective at efficiently searching the parameter space and optimising multiple constraints, it was computationally intensive and struggled to identify a broad range of outputs. Ultimately, this led to an ensemble of models with similar trajectories. Several potential ways to address this are discussed. Our results reinforce the findings of previous studies that the EEM methodology has potential for guiding conservation management and decision-making. Outputs suggest that reintroducing large herbivores was key to maintaining a diverse grassland-scrubland-woodland ecosystem, and optimisation experiments informed species characteristics and stocking densities needed to achieve specific goals. Ultimately, refining the EEM methodology to improve calibration and facilitate the integration of additional data will enhance its utility for ecosystem management, helping to achieve more effective and informed outcomes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110948"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-21DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110911
Micah Brush , Mark A. Lewis
In the last few decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB) have spread into novel regions in Canada. An important aspect seldom captured in models of MPB spread is host resistance. Lodgepole pine, the predominant host of MPB, varies in resistance across the landscape. There is evidence for a genetic component of resistance, as well as evidence that hosts in areas where MPB has not been present historically are at risk of increased susceptibility. In addition to the spatially varying resistance of the primary host species, the eastward spread of MPB has brought them into jack pine forests. Host resistance in jack pine remains uncertain, but experiments indicate jack pine could be a suitable host. We develop a model of pine beetle spread that links pine beetle population dynamics and forest structure and resistance. We find that beetle outbreaks in the model are characterized by large transient outbreaks that move through the forest. We show how the speed of these outbreaks changes with host resistance and find that biologically plausible values for host resistance are able to stop the wave from advancing. We also find that near the threshold of resistance where the wave is able to advance, small changes in host resistance dramatically decrease the severity of the outbreak. These results indicate that planting trees selected for higher MPB resistance on the landscape may be able to slow or even stop the local spread of MPB. In terms of further eastward spread, our results indicate future outbreaks may move more quickly and be more severe if novel lodgepole pine hosts are indeed more susceptible to beetle attacks, although more research is needed into the susceptibility of jack pine.
{"title":"Mountain pine beetle spread in forests with varying host resistance","authors":"Micah Brush , Mark A. Lewis","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110911","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110911","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the last few decades, mountain pine beetle (MPB) have spread into novel regions in Canada. An important aspect seldom captured in models of MPB spread is host resistance. Lodgepole pine, the predominant host of MPB, varies in resistance across the landscape. There is evidence for a genetic component of resistance, as well as evidence that hosts in areas where MPB has not been present historically are at risk of increased susceptibility. In addition to the spatially varying resistance of the primary host species, the eastward spread of MPB has brought them into jack pine forests. Host resistance in jack pine remains uncertain, but experiments indicate jack pine could be a suitable host. We develop a model of pine beetle spread that links pine beetle population dynamics and forest structure and resistance. We find that beetle outbreaks in the model are characterized by large transient outbreaks that move through the forest. We show how the speed of these outbreaks changes with host resistance and find that biologically plausible values for host resistance are able to stop the wave from advancing. We also find that near the threshold of resistance where the wave is able to advance, small changes in host resistance dramatically decrease the severity of the outbreak. These results indicate that planting trees selected for higher MPB resistance on the landscape may be able to slow or even stop the local spread of MPB. In terms of further eastward spread, our results indicate future outbreaks may move more quickly and be more severe if novel lodgepole pine hosts are indeed more susceptible to beetle attacks, although more research is needed into the susceptibility of jack pine.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110911"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142721806","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-11-20DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110938
Craig E. Simpkins , Peter J. Bellingham , Kiri Reihana , James M.R. Brock , George L.W. Perry
Globally, forest ecosystems face many threats to their resilience. During the last 20 years, two plant pathogens have become of widespread concern in Aotearoa-New Zealand (NZ): kauri dieback (a soil-borne disease caused by Phytophthora agathidicida and affecting Agathis australis, a large and long-lived gymnosperm) and myrtle rust (a wind-borne disease caused by Austropuccinia psidii and affecting members of the Myrtaceae). The long-term consequences of these pathogens are unclear, but they could drive significant changes in forest composition and ecosystem function. Here, we use an individual-based forest model for northern NZ, enabling us to explore some of these stressors. The model has previously been used to explore the dynamics of northern forests in NZ. To examine how myrtle rust and kauri dieback might affect forest dynamics under various scenarios we refined the model by (i) representing additional species, (ii) including an underlying edaphic gradient in addition to competition for light, (iii) simulating the effects of the plant pathogens kauri dieback and myrtle rust and (iv) porting the model from NetLogo 6 to Julia. Our simulation experiments suggest that myrtle rust may hasten the decline of two early successional species that we evaluated but has less effect on carbon storage. On the other hand, kauri dieback may lead to the stand-level loss of all Agathis australis and a median decline in aboveground live carbon storage of up to 55 % compared to undiseased stands after 500 years. The model experiments do not identify any interactive effects between the two pathogens. As with other efforts to model NZ's forest ecosystems, the model struggles to capture the regeneration dynamics of very long-lived species. Regeneration dynamics and evaluating a broader pool of the tree species common in the forests of northern NZ are where we will focus on future model development.
{"title":"Evaluating the effects of two newly emerging plant pathogens on northern Aotearoa-New Zealand forests using an individual-based model","authors":"Craig E. Simpkins , Peter J. Bellingham , Kiri Reihana , James M.R. Brock , George L.W. Perry","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110938","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110938","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Globally, forest ecosystems face many threats to their resilience. During the last 20 years, two plant pathogens have become of widespread concern in Aotearoa-New Zealand (NZ): kauri dieback (a soil-borne disease caused by <em>Phytophthora agathidicida</em> and affecting <em>Agathis australis</em>, a large and long-lived gymnosperm) and myrtle rust (a wind-borne disease caused by <em>Austropuccinia psidii</em> and affecting members of the Myrtaceae). The long-term consequences of these pathogens are unclear, but they could drive significant changes in forest composition and ecosystem function. Here, we use an individual-based forest model for northern NZ, enabling us to explore some of these stressors. The model has previously been used to explore the dynamics of northern forests in NZ. To examine how myrtle rust and kauri dieback might affect forest dynamics under various scenarios we refined the model by (i) representing additional species, (ii) including an underlying edaphic gradient in addition to competition for light, (iii) simulating the effects of the plant pathogens kauri dieback and myrtle rust and (iv) porting the model from NetLogo 6 to Julia. Our simulation experiments suggest that myrtle rust may hasten the decline of two early successional species that we evaluated but has less effect on carbon storage. On the other hand, kauri dieback may lead to the stand-level loss of all <em>Agathis australis</em> and a median decline in aboveground live carbon storage of up to 55 % compared to undiseased stands after 500 years. The model experiments do not identify any interactive effects between the two pathogens. As with other efforts to model NZ's forest ecosystems, the model struggles to capture the regeneration dynamics of very long-lived species. Regeneration dynamics and evaluating a broader pool of the tree species common in the forests of northern NZ are where we will focus on future model development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":"500 ","pages":"Article 110938"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142722427","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号