Ecological Modelling最新文献

{"title":"Uncertainty analysis of hydrological parameters of the APEXgraze model for grazing activities","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110917","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110917","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Researchers in hydrological sciences have developed agro-hydrological models to study water quantity and quality in small-scale watersheds. These models, however, often exhibit significant uncertainty in both parameters and response variables. The study aims to address limited research on the uncertainty range of runoff-related parameters in watershed models, particularly those analyzing the impact of grazing operations. It also seeks to improve existing uncertainty analysis protocols because these protocols rely on parameter distributions, which are often difficult to determine. A generalized uncertainty analysis protocol that statistically considers multiple acceptable solutions from calibrated agro-hydrological models was developed. This approach employed a variant of the Agricultural Policy eXtender (APEX) model with an expanded grazing module called APEXgraze to perform uncertainty analysis of runoff and sediment-related parameters. Four small-scale watershed models were developed for calibration: a) native prairie, b) native prairie under grazing operations, c) cereals (winter wheat and one season of oats), and d) the same cereals under grazing operations in a semi-arid region of Oklahoma, United States. This work demonstrated that a simplified uncertainty analysis approach effectively captured the internal dynamics of hydrological processes within a statistically significant range of parameters. This observation was evidenced by a small range of water balance in both magnitude and percentage. The procedure also helped identify redundant parameters in sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. The proposed generalized uncertainty analysis protocol offers a reliable method for assessing hydrological models' internal dynamics and identifying critical parameters. This approach can enhance the accuracy of watershed models, particularly in regions with grazing operations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592700","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"prior3D: An R package for three-dimensional conservation prioritization","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110919","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110919","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Systematic conservation planning (SCP) is essential for meeting global conservation goals and mitigating anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity. Effective conservation planning should incorporate the three-dimensional nature of ecosystems, including species distribution by depth. Recent advancements, like the 3D prioritization approach, address this by considering multiple depth zones. The R package prior3D is an open-source tool designed for prioritizing conservation efforts across different depth zones in a unified framework. Starting from the deepest zone and moving upwards, it optimizes conservation priorities and allows flexible allocation of protection levels per depth. This approach strategically prioritizes areas with higher species gains, while ensuring minimum representation of all depth zones in the final prioritization solution. While conceived for marine conservation, prior3D is applicable to any 3D ecosystem making it a critical tool for multi-realm conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142586731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Effects of temperature on asexual reproduction and jellyfish booms of Aurelia aurita: Insights from mathematical modeling","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110915","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110915","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Elucidating the benthic stage growth and reproductive mechanisms of <em>Aurelia aurita</em> contributes to understanding irregular jellyfish blooms. This paper establishes a four-stage life history model of <em>A. aurita</em> (Polyp–Strobila–Ephyra–Medusa) to investigate the influence of seasonal temperature variations on the abundance of <em>A. aurita</em>. Sensitivity analyses indicate that jellyfish are most sensitive to bottom-up supplementation, with strobilation identified as an essential process in their life cycle. We explore the effects of parameters directly associated with strobilation in the Jiaozhou Bay area on population size, summarizing the interannual variations across the four stages of <em>A. aurita</em>, which aligns with empirical data. The investigation reveals that (i) consistent with recent biological literature, strobilation of <em>A. aurita</em> in temperate regions primarily occurs during periods of increasing spring sea surface temperatures rather than during autumn temperature declines, leading to summer jellyfish blooms; (ii) regression and subsequent strobilation favor an increase in the pelagic medusae population; (iii) the influence of rising sea surface temperatures due to climate change on the growth and reproduction of <em>A. aurita</em> manifests as initial stimulation followed by inhibition; (iv) earlier strobilation in spring may lead to more extensive <em>A. aurita</em> outbreaks in summer, providing insights for early warning of jellyfish blooms.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142578267","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Interactive effects of climate change and human mobility on dengue transmission","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110924","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110924","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The global escalation of vector-borne epidemics, particularly flaviviruses like dengue fever, presents a growing challenge. Contributing factors such as climate change and increased human mobility have expanded the vulnerability to dengue fever worldwide, yet the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. In this paper, we extend a two-patch dengue transmission model by incorporating the aquatic stage of mosquitoes and integrating the movement of host individuals between patches via a residence-time matrix. Through this approach, we derive the basic reproduction number and directly link it to climate change and human mobility. Our findings reveal bidirectional impacts of human mobility on dengue transmission: an increase in mobility from climatically unsuitable to suitable patches heightens the basic reproduction number, while the reverse pattern diminishes it. Moreover, an asymmetric mobility rate proves potentially more conducive to dengue spread than a symmetric pattern. When coupled with climate changes, asymmetric human mobility further exacerbates dengue fever transmission. These insights offer novel perspectives on the role of human mobility in dengue transmission dynamics and inform intervention strategies, particularly in urban settings where dengue epidemics are driven by human mobility.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572664","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"When does artificial intelligence replace process-based models in ecological modelling?","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110923","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110923","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Sixteen years ago, Sven Jørgensen, a founder of Ecological Modelling, wrote that artificial neural networks could be very useful in most cases but cannot replace biogeochemical models based on conservation principles. The literature study shows no sign that artificial neural networks are replacing any process-based models in ecological modelling, although the recent efforts in developing the methods for solving differential equations by using neural networks enable turning the process-based models into neural networks without loss of their theoretical rigor. It seems that a well-orchestrated research program is needed to promote turning existing process-based models into neural networks aimed at taking advantage of opportunities offered by the big data revolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142572665","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Modeling the effects of phenological mismatch in tick questing and host demographic turnover on Lyme disease hazard","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110910","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110910","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Climate change is altering the seasonal abundance and activity patterns of ecologically interacting species. It is not yet known how changes in phenological alignment between ticks and their hosts will impact tick feeding, survival, and the timing and probability of pathogen transmission during feeding. It has been observed that the seasonal timing of human Lyme disease cases has shifted earlier, accompanying an increased incidence, which may reflect changes in tick questing phenology. We present a mathematical model framework for exploring the seasonal dynamics of a tick-borne pathogen. The model extends a recently developed seasonal population matrix model for ixodid ticks feeding on a small and a large host, to i) incorporate the transmission of a pathogen, based on the causative agent of Lyme disease, <em>Borrelia burgdorferi</em> sensu lato, between ticks and a reservoir-competent small mammal host, and ii) include seasonal demographic turnover in the small mammal host. Through modification of model parameters, we explored the effects of alternative scenarios for tick questing phenology, tick host selection, and seasonality of host reproduction on disease dynamics. Our model predicts that due to differences in their life history, seasonal infection prevalence is much more variable in the small mammalian host than in the tick vector. The rapid pace of host demographic turnover is important for clearing infection in the small mammal population. The alignment between the seasonal timing of host reproduction and tick questing phenology is a critical feature in the model, as it determines pathogen transmission and infection prevalence in host and vector populations. The model predicts that increased asynchrony between larval tick feeding and small host reproduction can increase the number of infected questing nymphs, a common metric for Lyme disease hazard. When larval tick feeding is misaligned with small host reproduction, the larvae feed predominantly on older hosts, which are more likely to be infected. Our model presents an adaptable framework for exploring seasonal relationships between pathogen dynamics, host demography, and vector life history traits in an emergent tick-borne disease system.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533163","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"High-resolution spatiotemporal forecasting of the European crane migration","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110884","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110884","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In this paper we present three different models to forecast bird migration. They are species-specific individual-based models that operate on a high spatiotemporal resolution (kilometres, 15 min-hours), as an addition to radar-based migration forecast models that currently exist. The models vary in complexity, and use GPS-tracked location, flying direction and speed, and/or wind data to forecast migration speed and direction. Our aim is to quantitatively evaluate the forecasting performance and assess which metrics improve forecasts at different ranges. We test the models through cross-validation using GPS tracks of common cranes during spring and autumn migration. Our results show that recordings of flight speed and direction improve the accuracy of forecasts on the short range (&lt;2 h). Adding wind data at flight altitude results in consistent improvements of the forecasts across the entire range, particularly in the predicted speed. Direction forecasts are less affected by adding wind data because cranes mostly compensate for wind drift during migration. Migration in spring is more difficult to forecast than in autumn, resulting in larger errors in flight speed and direction during spring. We further find that a combination of flight behaviours – thermal soaring, gliding, and flapping – complicates the forecasts by inducing variance in flight speed and direction. Fitting those behaviours into flight optimisation models proves to be challenging, and even results in significant biases in speed forecasts in spring. We conclude that flight speed is the most difficult parameter to forecast, whereas flight direction is the most critical for practical applications of these models. Such applications could e.g., be prevention of bird strikes in aviation or with wind turbines, and public engagement with bird migration.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"How root-grafted trees form networks: Modeling network dynamics with pyNET","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110916","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110916","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Natural root grafting is a widespread phenomenon in woody plants. While previous studies have focused on the effects of reduced growth and resource exchange at the individual level, we lack an understanding of the collective behavior of groups of grafted trees and the networks they form. Here, we present pyNET, a mechanistic agent-based model designed to explore the emergence of root graft networks. We performed simulation experiments with different scenarios involving water scarcity and different cost-benefit dynamics. Costs denote the resources required to form root grafts, while benefits denote the water redistributed among trees. Our model successfully replicates observed patterns linking structural variables to network characteristics. Specifically, we were able to reproduce observed characteristics such as grafting frequency and mean group size. In particular, we find that while the network structure is naturally strongly influenced by the size of the root system, the time and resources allocated to grafting are also critical factors. pyNET serves as a valuable tool for exploring the formation of root grafting networks under diverse environmental conditions and understanding their impact on resource competition. Our study supports theory development on the subject and hopefully stimulates further empirical studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142533162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Corrigendum to “Spatial mechanistic modelling to simulate movements and contacts between wildlife and livestock in Southern Africa” [ecological modelling 498 (2024) /110863]","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110902","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110902","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142592688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The economic impacts of living habitat changes in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, Chesapeake Bay","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110914","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110914","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Living habitats support ecologically and commercially important species but are threatened by anthropogenic stressors, including climate change. The populations of two living habitats in the Chesapeake Bay, Eastern Oyster (<em>Crassostrea virginica</em>) and Eelgrass (<em>Zostera marina</em>), are depleted compared to historical levels, but recent Oyster restoration efforts have created new reef habitat and enhanced existing Oyster reefs. Other animals (e.g., commercially important fish and invertebrates) consume organisms that associate with these living habitats, suggesting the regional economies that rely on the commercial fishing industry may be impacted by changes in living habitat coverage. Ecosystem models were developed for two rivers that have undergone Oyster restoration in the Virginia Middle Peninsula, and simulations were conducted to estimate the potential influence that changes to living habitats may have on commercial fisheries harvests. Additionally, commercial fishers were interviewed to document expenditures needed to link ecological model estimates to an economic input-output model via IMPLAN that estimated the regional economic impacts of these changes. Increases to Oyster and Eelgrass populations are predicted to enhance commercial fisheries populations and in turn, harvests, while decreases to living habitats are predicted to have negative effect on fisheries harvests. The driving factor behind landed value trends is changes with the lucrative Blue Crab (<em>Callinectes sapidus</em>) fishery. The primary expenses of watermen are repairs/maintenance, fuel, and bait, but greater than 37 % of the annual revenue is retained as proprietor and crew income. Oyster reef restoration alone is predicted to increase the regional economic impact of the commercial fishing industry by $1.1 M yr^-1 and support 12 more full-time jobs at the end of a 20-year simulation. Oyster restoration in combination with a continued decline of Eelgrass led to a negligible increase (∼$150 K yr^-1) in the regional economic impact. Eelgrass restoration to the current management goal without the influence of Oyster restoration is anticipated to elevate the regional economic impact to $16.8 M yr^-1 and 152 full-time jobs, and smaller increases to the Eelgrass population, relative to current levels, will still have a positive impact on the regional economy. Combined Oyster and Eelgrass restoration are predicted to enhance economic impacts to the greatest extent, while continued Eelgrass decline is likely to minimize these benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":51043,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2024-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142446653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}