How Model Organisms and Model Uncertainty Impact Our Understanding of the Risk of Sublethal Impacts of Toxicants to Survival and Growth of Ecologically Relevant Species

IF 3.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1002/etc.5958
Lori N. Ivan, Michael L. Jones, Janice L. Albers, Michael J. Carvan, Natalia Garcia-Reyero, Diane Nacci, Bryan Clark, Rebekah Klingler, Cheryl A. Murphy
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Abstract

Understanding how sublethal impacts of toxicants affect population-relevant outcomes for organisms is challenging. We tested the hypotheses that the well-known sublethal impacts of methylmercury (MeHg) and a polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB126) would have meaningful impacts on cohort growth and survival in yellow perch (Perca flavescens) and Atlantic killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) populations, that inclusion of model uncertainty is important for understanding the sublethal impacts of toxicants, and that a model organism (zebrafish Danio rerio) is an appropriate substitute for ecologically relevant species (yellow perch, killifish). Our simulations showed that MeHg did not have meaningful impacts on growth or survival in a simulated environment except to increase survival and growth in low mercury exposures in yellow perch and killifish. For PCB126, the high level of exposure resulted in lower survival for killifish only. Uncertainty analyses increased the variability and lowered average survival estimates across all species and toxicants, providing a more conservative estimate of risk. We demonstrate that using a model organism instead of the species of interest does not necessarily give the same results, suggesting that using zebrafish as a surrogate for yellow perch and killifish may not be appropriate for predicting contaminant impacts on larval cohort growth and survival in ecologically relevant species. Our analysis also reinforces the notion that uncertainty analyses are necessary in any modeling assessment of the impacts of toxicants on a population because it provides a more conservative, and arguably realistic, estimate of impact. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:2122–2133. © 2024 SETAC

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模型生物和模型的不确定性如何影响我们对毒物亚致死影响对生态相关物种生存和生长的风险的理解。
了解毒物的亚致死影响如何影响生物的种群相关结果具有挑战性。我们测试了以下假设:众所周知的甲基汞(MeHg)和多氯联苯(PCB126)的亚致死影响会对黄鲈(Perca flavescens)和大西洋鳉鱼(Fundulus heteroclitus)种群的群落生长和存活率产生有意义的影响、纳入模型的不确定性对于理解毒物的亚致死影响非常重要,模型生物(斑马鱼)是生态相关物种(黄鲈、鳉鱼)的适当替代品。我们的模拟结果表明,甲基汞对模拟环境中的生长或存活率并无明显影响,只是在低汞暴露情况下会提高黄鲈和鳉鱼的存活率和生长率。至于 PCB126,高浓度接触仅导致鳉鱼存活率降低。不确定性分析增加了变异性,降低了所有物种和毒物的平均存活率估计值,提供了更保守的风险估计值。我们证明,使用模型生物而不是相关物种并不一定会得到相同的结果,这表明使用斑马鱼作为黄鲈和鳉鱼的替代品可能不适合用于预测污染物对生态相关物种幼虫群生长和存活率的影响。我们的分析还强化了一个概念,即在任何毒物对种群影响的建模评估中,不确定性分析都是必要的,因为它提供了更保守、也可以说更现实的影响估计。环境毒物化学 2024;00:1-12。© 2024 SETAC.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
9.80%
发文量
265
审稿时长
3.4 months
期刊介绍: The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) publishes two journals: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (ET&C) and Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management (IEAM). Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry is dedicated to furthering scientific knowledge and disseminating information on environmental toxicology and chemistry, including the application of these sciences to risk assessment.[...] Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry is interdisciplinary in scope and integrates the fields of environmental toxicology; environmental, analytical, and molecular chemistry; ecology; physiology; biochemistry; microbiology; genetics; genomics; environmental engineering; chemical, environmental, and biological modeling; epidemiology; and earth sciences. ET&C seeks to publish papers describing original experimental or theoretical work that significantly advances understanding in the area of environmental toxicology, environmental chemistry and hazard/risk assessment. Emphasis is given to papers that enhance capabilities for the prediction, measurement, and assessment of the fate and effects of chemicals in the environment, rather than simply providing additional data. The scientific impact of papers is judged in terms of the breadth and depth of the findings and the expected influence on existing or future scientific practice. Methodological papers must make clear not only how the work differs from existing practice, but the significance of these differences to the field. Site-based research or monitoring must have regional or global implications beyond the particular site, such as evaluating processes, mechanisms, or theory under a natural environmental setting.
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Correction. Spotlights are papers selected by editors published in peer-reviewed journals that may be more regionally specific or appearing in languages other than English Issue Information - Cover Editorial Board and Table of Contents Detection and Prediction of Toxic Aluminum Concentrations in High-Priority Salmon Rivers in Nova Scotia.
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