{"title":"Structured methods for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models in the life sciences.","authors":"Michael J Plank, Matthew J Simpson","doi":"10.1098/rsos.240733","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be computationally expensive, particularly when the number of unknown model parameters is large. The aim of this study is to develop and test an efficient profile likelihood-based method, which takes advantage of the structure of the mathematical model being used. We do this by identifying specific parameters that affect model output in a known way, such as a linear scaling. We illustrate the method by applying it to three toy models from different areas of the life sciences: (i) a predator-prey model from ecology; (ii) a compartment-based epidemic model from health sciences; and (iii) an advection-diffusion reaction model describing the transport of dissolved solutes from environmental science. We show that the new method produces results of comparable accuracy to existing profile likelihood methods but with substantially fewer evaluations of the forward model. We conclude that our method could provide a much more efficient approach to parameter inference for models where a structured approach is feasible. Computer code to apply the new method to user-supplied models and data is provided via a publicly accessible repository.</p>","PeriodicalId":21525,"journal":{"name":"Royal Society Open Science","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11336684/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Royal Society Open Science","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.240733","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/8/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be computationally expensive, particularly when the number of unknown model parameters is large. The aim of this study is to develop and test an efficient profile likelihood-based method, which takes advantage of the structure of the mathematical model being used. We do this by identifying specific parameters that affect model output in a known way, such as a linear scaling. We illustrate the method by applying it to three toy models from different areas of the life sciences: (i) a predator-prey model from ecology; (ii) a compartment-based epidemic model from health sciences; and (iii) an advection-diffusion reaction model describing the transport of dissolved solutes from environmental science. We show that the new method produces results of comparable accuracy to existing profile likelihood methods but with substantially fewer evaluations of the forward model. We conclude that our method could provide a much more efficient approach to parameter inference for models where a structured approach is feasible. Computer code to apply the new method to user-supplied models and data is provided via a publicly accessible repository.
期刊介绍:
Royal Society Open Science is a new open journal publishing high-quality original research across the entire range of science on the basis of objective peer-review.
The journal covers the entire range of science and mathematics and will allow the Society to publish all the high-quality work it receives without the usual restrictions on scope, length or impact.