Worth a shot? The political economy of government responsiveness in times of crisis

Abstract

We study the political economy of government responsiveness in the context of COVID-19 vaccine allocation in Mexico. We first present population-level evidence that the vaccines had positive effects on public health, motivating the plausible electoral value of vaccine distribution. To estimate these effects, we exploit newly collected data on diverse health outcomes and staggered roll-out of vaccines by municipalities and age groups. Our analysis then delves into the electoral predictors and consequences of the vaccination program. Electoral incentives positively correlate with government responsiveness, and vaccine allocation paid off electorally in some locations. Using a difference-in-differences strategy coupled with geographically fine-grained electoral data, which allow us to hold fixed all municipality-level factors that could have mattered for vaccine eligibility, we do not find any evidence that a higher vaccination coverage would have boosted electoral support for the incumbent party, on average. However, there is some evidence of heterogeneous effects. Furthermore, vaccines did increase electoral participation, plausibly by decreasing the perceived cost of voting midst the health crisis.