Pub Date : 2026-01-29DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107331
Viljar Haavik , Alessio Iocchi
Why have decentralization reforms in Liberia, despite consistent external support, repeatedly faltered? The conventional explanation of lacking political ownership, rooted in corruption and elite self-interest, offers only a partial answer, risking circularity: reforms fail because of the very governance deficits they seek to address. Drawing on original fieldwork, this article explores how a perceived lack of political ownership is enacted in practice. It argues that Liberian political and bureaucratic elites are strategically choosing not to ‘own’ reforms to balance domestic political risks and donor expectations, producing a ‘twisted win-win’ dynamic. This concept helps unpack how a “lack of ownership” in Liberia functions in practice: state actors demonstrate limited commitment to sustain donor support while minimizing threats to entrenched power structures and privileges, and donors accept ‘good enough’ progress to satisfy institutional and reporting needs. The result is a dynamic that sustains piecemeal reform without altering the underlying neopatrimonial order. Liberia showcases how political ownership in aid-dependent contexts is relational, bounded, and co-produced rather than being merely absent.
{"title":"Decentralization and the persistence of centralized power in Liberia","authors":"Viljar Haavik , Alessio Iocchi","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107331","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107331","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Why have decentralization reforms in Liberia, despite consistent external support, repeatedly faltered? The conventional explanation of lacking political ownership, rooted in corruption and elite self-interest, offers only a partial answer, risking circularity: reforms fail because of the very governance deficits they seek to address. Drawing on original fieldwork, this article explores how a perceived lack of political ownership is enacted in practice. It argues that Liberian political and bureaucratic elites are strategically choosing not to ‘own’ reforms to balance domestic political risks and donor expectations, producing a ‘twisted win-win’ dynamic. This concept helps unpack how a “lack of ownership” in Liberia functions in practice: state actors demonstrate limited commitment to sustain donor support while minimizing threats to entrenched power structures and privileges, and donors accept ‘good enough’ progress to satisfy institutional and reporting needs. The result is a dynamic that sustains piecemeal reform without altering the underlying neopatrimonial order. Liberia showcases how political ownership in aid-dependent contexts is relational, bounded, and co-produced rather than being merely absent.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107331"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-28DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107312
Santiago Anria , Candelaria Garay , Jessica A.J. Rich
Over the past decade, social movements have driven transformative political and social change across the globe—from the Arab Spring to feminist victories in Latin America and diversity and inclusion efforts in the United States. Yet many of these gains have been swiftly reversed, underscoring a critical challenge: ensuring not just the adoption of new policies but their long-term survival. This special issue explores how social movements work to entrench the very policies they help bring about, ensuring these policies take root. Social movements often pursue entrenchment by occupying key bureaucratic positions, applying pressure and persuasion, and building alliances with political parties. The five articles in this issue examine these strategies across diverse cases in the Global South, offering broader insights into how movements sustain change over time. Together, they provide a framework for understanding the enduring role of activism in shaping, defending, and entrenching progressive policies.
{"title":"Introduction to special issue: The policy consequences of social movements","authors":"Santiago Anria , Candelaria Garay , Jessica A.J. Rich","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107312","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107312","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Over the past decade, social movements have driven transformative political and social change across the globe—from the Arab Spring to feminist victories in Latin America and diversity and inclusion efforts in the United States. Yet many of these gains have been swiftly reversed, underscoring a critical challenge: ensuring not just the adoption of new policies but their long-term survival. This special issue explores how social movements work to entrench the very policies they help bring about, ensuring these policies take root. Social movements often pursue entrenchment by occupying key bureaucratic positions, applying pressure and persuasion, and building alliances with political parties. The five articles in this issue examine these strategies across diverse cases in the Global South, offering broader insights into how movements sustain change over time. Together, they provide a framework for understanding the enduring role of activism in shaping, defending, and entrenching progressive policies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107312"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146080029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107311
Lenin H. Balza , Camilo De Los Rios , Nathaly M. Rivera
Do resource-extraction booms deter postsecondary education? We explore this question by examining the higher education-related decisions of Chilean high school graduates during the 2000s commodities boom. Mineral extraction boosts enrollment in technical education but lowers completion rates for four-year professional degrees. Effects vary by economic background, with dropout rates higher among public high school graduates, who typically serve low-income groups. Our study highlights the unequal impact of natural resources on human capital accumulation across income groups within resource-rich developing economies.
{"title":"Digging deep: Resource exploitation and higher education","authors":"Lenin H. Balza , Camilo De Los Rios , Nathaly M. Rivera","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107311","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107311","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Do resource-extraction booms deter postsecondary education? We explore this question by examining the higher education-related decisions of Chilean high school graduates during the 2000s commodities boom. Mineral extraction boosts enrollment in technical education but lowers completion rates for four-year professional degrees. Effects vary by economic background, with dropout rates higher among public high school graduates, who typically serve low-income groups. Our study highlights the unequal impact of natural resources on human capital accumulation across income groups within resource-rich developing economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107311"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039573","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107295
Bina Agarwal , Shamindra Nath Roy , Shiva Chakravarti Sharma
Can political representation by indigenous communities – often seen as stewards of forests – help enhance forest conservation? Or would indigenous political control over forests catalyse greater extraction for revenue gains? Does the level of representation matter? This paper addresses these under-researched questions, drawing on India’s multi-layered enactments which granted Scheduled Tribes political representation, and hence influence over local resources including forests, in constituencies reserved for them in state assemblies and village councils.
Taking Chhattisgarh state as an example, geospatial technologies are used for accessing forest cover, village boundaries, and village characteristics, to compare the state’s 20,000-odd villages across diverse reserved and unreserved categories, over almost two decades, 2001–2019. It differentiates between Assembly Constituency (AC) reservations and PESA (Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas) reservations – the former at the assembly level, the latter at the village council level – and between delimitation time periods.
Over 2001–2019, village area under forest cover is found to have increased by almost 240,000 ha for the 10,554 ever-reserved villages, constituting four times the increase in never-reserved villages. Also, over 2009–2019, regression analysis (using different specifications) shows that relative to never-reserved villages the likelihood of an increase in percentage village area under forest cover was significantly greater in solely AC reserved villages, but significantly lower in solely PESA villages. Rural non-village forests also improved under AC reservation. This suggests a policy win–win for assembly-level representation in promoting both social inclusion and conservation. Divergent interests could, however, stymie village-level outcomes, needing additional incentives to conserve. These results also hold lessons for other countries with large forest areas and substantial indigenous populations.
土著社区的政治代表——通常被视为森林的管理者——能帮助加强森林保护吗？或者土著对森林的政治控制会促进更多的采伐以获得收入吗？代表的程度重要吗？本文解决了这些研究不足的问题，借鉴了印度的多层立法，赋予预定部落政治代表权，从而对包括森林在内的当地资源产生影响，在邦议会和村委会中为他们保留的选区。以恰蒂斯加尔邦为例，利用地理空间技术获取森林覆盖、村庄边界和村庄特征，在2001年至2019年的近20年时间里，对该邦2万多个不同保留和非保留类别的村庄进行比较。它区分了议会选区（AC）保留和村务委员会（Panchayat Extension to schedule Areas）保留（前者在议会一级，后者在村委会一级），并区分了划界时间。在2001年至2019年期间，10,554个被保留的村庄的森林覆盖面积增加了近24万公顷，是未被保留的村庄的四倍。此外，在2009-2019年期间，回归分析（使用不同规格）表明，相对于未保留的村庄，单独保留AC的村庄森林覆盖面积百分比增加的可能性显着增加，而单独保留PESA的村庄森林覆盖面积百分比增加的可能性显着降低。农村非村庄森林在AC保留区下也得到改善。这表明，在促进社会包容和保护方面，议会一级代表的政策是双赢的。然而，不同的利益可能会阻碍村庄层面的成果，需要额外的激励措施来保护。这些结果也为其他拥有大片森林和大量土著人口的国家提供了经验教训。
{"title":"Can indigenous political representation improve forest conservation? India’s experience","authors":"Bina Agarwal , Shamindra Nath Roy , Shiva Chakravarti Sharma","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107295","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107295","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Can political representation by indigenous communities – often seen as stewards of forests – help enhance forest conservation? Or would indigenous political control over forests catalyse greater extraction for revenue gains? Does the level of representation matter? This paper addresses these under-researched questions, drawing on India’s multi-layered enactments which granted Scheduled Tribes political representation, and hence influence over local resources including forests, in constituencies reserved for them in state assemblies and village councils.</div><div>Taking Chhattisgarh state as an example, geospatial technologies are used for accessing forest cover, village boundaries, and village characteristics, to compare the state’s 20,000-odd villages across diverse reserved and unreserved categories, over almost two decades, 2001–2019. It differentiates between Assembly Constituency (AC) reservations and PESA (Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas) reservations – the former at the assembly level, the latter at the village council level – and between delimitation time periods.</div><div>Over 2001–2019, village area under forest cover is found to have increased by almost 240,000 ha for the 10,554 ever-reserved villages, constituting four times the increase in never-reserved villages. Also, over 2009–2019, regression analysis (using different specifications) shows that relative to never-reserved villages the likelihood of an increase in percentage village area under forest cover was significantly greater in solely AC reserved villages, but significantly <em>lower</em> in solely PESA villages. Rural non-village forests also improved under AC reservation. This suggests a policy win–win for assembly-level representation in promoting both social inclusion and conservation. Divergent interests could, however, stymie village-level outcomes, needing additional incentives to conserve. These results also hold lessons for other countries with large forest areas and substantial indigenous populations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107295"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-21DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107309
Mariano Bosch , Danilo Silva , Juan M. Villa
This paper examines a large-scale behavioral intervention to boost social security compliance among self-employed workers. In 2014, the Brazilian Ministry of Social Security gradually delivered mailed booklets to nearly 3 million self-employed workers, reminding them of their obligation to contribute to social security. We find that sending the booklet increased payments by 15 percent and compliance rates by 7 percentage points. This effect is concentrated in the delivery month and fades after three months, a pattern of action and backsliding. Heterogeneity in effects suggests that the impact was stronger in wealthier municipalities, consistent with the prepayment of multiple contributions and pointing to administrative simplification as the likely dominant mechanism. Our results highlight the potential of behavioral interventions to increase social security compliance in developing countries, particularly among the self-employed.
{"title":"A behavioral approach to social security compliance targeting self-employed workers in Brazil","authors":"Mariano Bosch , Danilo Silva , Juan M. Villa","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107309","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107309","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines a large-scale behavioral intervention to boost social security compliance among self-employed workers. In 2014, the Brazilian Ministry of Social Security gradually delivered mailed booklets to nearly 3 million self-employed workers, reminding them of their obligation to contribute to social security. We find that sending the booklet increased payments by 15 percent and compliance rates by 7 percentage points. This effect is concentrated in the delivery month and fades after three months, a pattern of action and backsliding. Heterogeneity in effects suggests that the impact was stronger in wealthier municipalities, consistent with the prepayment of multiple contributions and pointing to administrative simplification as the likely dominant mechanism. Our results highlight the potential of behavioral interventions to increase social security compliance in developing countries, particularly among the self-employed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107309"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039572","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-20DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107318
Eduardo Dargent , Skarlet Olivera
Massive internal migration in the sixties, a severe economic and social crisis in the eighties, and a radical neoliberal transport reform adopted in 1991 (Legislative Decree N° 651–1991) led to the emergence of a disorganized, inefficient, and costly transport system in Lima, Peru. In dialogue with the business power and policy feedback literature, we show that this system is rooted in the empowerment of leading private formal and informal transport actors and in the weakening of state transport control offices. These arrangements constitute what experts call a “policy trap,” a situation in which a trajectory is adopted that is difficult to escape due to prior reforms, public policies, and/or government decisions (Holland, 2017). This article analyzes two reform attempts to break the policy trap: the Integrated Transportation System (SIT) reform of 2011 and the creation of the Urban Transport Authority (ATU) in 2018. By focusing on the implementation of these reforms, we demonstrate the structural and instrumental power of informal and low-quality formal actors that sustain the system’s continuity, particularly their successful strategies of resistance and adaptation to the reforms. We document how these actors engage politically to oppose the implementation of reforms, lobby and support political actors who can represent their interests, and adopt new modes of informal transport to circumvent or profit from the new conditions promoted by the reforms. These findings exemplify the considerable challenges that middle- and low-income states face in adopting and sustaining reforms to regulate informal activities, such as transport.
{"title":"The order behind disorder: informality, power, and the resilience of a transport policy trap in Lima, Peru","authors":"Eduardo Dargent , Skarlet Olivera","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107318","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107318","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Massive internal migration in the sixties, a severe economic and social crisis in the eighties, and a radical neoliberal transport reform adopted in 1991 (Legislative Decree N° 651–1991) led to the emergence of a disorganized, inefficient, and costly transport system in Lima, Peru. In dialogue with the business power and policy feedback literature, we show that this system is rooted in the empowerment of leading private formal and informal transport actors and in the weakening of state transport control offices. These arrangements constitute what experts call a “policy trap,” a situation in which a trajectory is adopted that is difficult to escape due to prior reforms, public policies, and/or government decisions (<span><span>Holland, 2017</span></span>). This article analyzes two reform attempts to break the policy trap: the Integrated Transportation System (SIT) reform of 2011 and the creation of the Urban Transport Authority (ATU) in 2018. By focusing on the implementation of these reforms, we demonstrate the structural and instrumental power of informal and low-quality formal actors that sustain the system’s continuity, particularly their successful strategies of resistance and adaptation to the reforms. We document how these actors engage politically to oppose the implementation of reforms, lobby and support political actors who can represent their interests, and adopt new modes of informal transport to circumvent or profit from the new conditions promoted by the reforms. These findings exemplify the considerable challenges that middle- and low-income states face in adopting and sustaining reforms to regulate informal activities, such as transport.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107318"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Despite rapid advances in digital finance, significant gender gaps persist, especially in South Asia. Using nationally representative data from India’s NFHS-5 survey (n = 84,213), this study explores how community norms and peer behavior shape women’s adoption of digital financial services. Employing a 2–2–1 multilevel moderated mediation model, we find that women are significantly more likely to engage in digital finance when embedded in communities with high peer usage, aligning with behavioral diffusion theory. However, this peer influence is curtailed in communities with restrictive gendered mobility norms. Our findings underscore the layered interaction between individual agency and community-level social structures. The study reveals that women’s employment and relative income foster digital adoption both directly and via increased peer exposure. Yet, this pathway weakens in socially restrictive environments. These insights highlight the necessity of norm-sensitive, community-level interventions to promote inclusive digital finance for women in low- and middle-income countries.
{"title":"Community norms, peer influence, and women’s digital financial inclusion: evidence from India","authors":"Rashmi Arora , Supriya Garikipati , Sukhpreet Kaur","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107314","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107314","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Despite rapid advances in digital finance, significant gender gaps persist, especially in South Asia. Using nationally representative data from India’s NFHS-5 survey (n = 84,213), this study explores how community norms and peer behavior shape women’s adoption of digital financial services. Employing a 2–2–1 multilevel moderated mediation model, we find that women are significantly more likely to engage in digital finance when embedded in communities with high peer usage, aligning with behavioral diffusion theory. However, this peer influence is curtailed in communities with restrictive gendered mobility norms. Our findings underscore the layered interaction between individual agency and community-level social structures. The study reveals that women’s employment and relative income foster digital adoption both directly and via increased peer exposure. Yet, this pathway weakens in socially restrictive environments. These insights highlight the necessity of norm-sensitive, community-level interventions to promote inclusive digital finance for women in low- and middle-income countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107314"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-19DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107315
Stephan Haggard , Kyoochul Kim , Munseob Lee
Some economies are “black holes” where reliable data is scarce due to government control, low capacity, or conflict. Despite these challenges, researchers have found ways to gather useful information. This paper draws on the literature on North Korea to review six key methods: satellite imagery, reports from aid agencies, trade data, prices, refugee surveys, and official documents. These sources are imperfect, and require close attention to research design and measurement error. Nonetheless, they demonstrate that it is possible to extract information from economic black holes and to draw meaningful insights about them.
{"title":"Studying economic black holes: Lessons from North Korea","authors":"Stephan Haggard , Kyoochul Kim , Munseob Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107315","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107315","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Some economies are “black holes” where reliable data is scarce due to government control, low capacity, or conflict. Despite these challenges, researchers have found ways to gather useful information. This paper draws on the literature on North Korea to review six key methods: satellite imagery, reports from aid agencies, trade data, prices, refugee surveys, and official documents. These sources are imperfect, and require close attention to research design and measurement error. Nonetheless, they demonstrate that it is possible to extract information from economic black holes and to draw meaningful insights about them.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107315"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146039575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-17DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107317
Christopher B. Barrett, Heather Schofield
Much development policy has followed from the idea of poverty traps, the belief that the poor (and poor countries) lack capital and the ability to borrow, thus cannot invest sufficiently to build a better future for themselves. Poverty is thus self-reinforcing. This essay explores a complementary, alternate hypothesis, that poverty traps may be driven not only by lack of access to capital, but also (or instead) by differential exposure to uninsured risk and ability to cope with that risk. We explain the hypothesis and its historical roots, discuss empirical evidence, and tease out prospective solutions to the possibility of risk-based poverty traps.
{"title":"On risk-based poverty traps","authors":"Christopher B. Barrett, Heather Schofield","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107317","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107317","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Much development policy has followed from the idea of poverty traps, the belief that the poor (and poor countries) lack capital and the ability to borrow, thus cannot invest sufficiently to build a better future for themselves. Poverty is thus self-reinforcing. This essay explores a complementary, alternate hypothesis, that poverty traps may be driven not only by lack of access to capital, but also (or instead) by differential exposure to uninsured risk and ability to cope with that risk. We explain the hypothesis and its historical roots, discuss empirical evidence, and tease out prospective solutions to the possibility of risk-based poverty traps.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107317"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145982068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-01-17DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316
Xu Zhang , Shoufa Hu , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem , Abdul Rauf
This study examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the resilience of national energy consumption. We develop a novel measure of the resilience of energy consumption, considering both scale and temporal dimensions, and employ a panel data model to examine the impact of climate change vulnerability on this resilience. The findings indicate that, despite increasing global uncertainties, the resilience of energy consumption exhibits a rising trend in most countries. Climate change vulnerability exerts a significant negative effect on the resilience of energy consumption: a one-unit increase in climate change vulnerability results in a 0.4307-unit decrease in the absorption intensity of the resilience of energy consumption. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of its underlying mechanisms, we find that this impact primarily occurs through a weakening of energy supply, a reduction in energy intensity, the enhancement of governmental environmental regulations, a distortion of energy prices, and the instability of energy technologies. Our study contributes to the literature on energy supply and demand balance, specifically within the discourse on energy consumption in the face of climate change challenges. It broadens the concept of resilience to encompass energy consumption and introduces new resilience metrics, namely absorption intensity and absorption duration, thereby enhancing the comprehensiveness and comparability of resilience assessments. These findings are pivotal for improving strategic decision-making regarding energy in the context of increasing climate change challenges.
{"title":"Climate change vulnerability and the resilience of energy consumption","authors":"Xu Zhang , Shoufa Hu , Muhammad Abubakr Naeem , Abdul Rauf","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107316","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the resilience of national energy consumption. We develop a novel measure of the resilience of energy consumption, considering both scale and temporal dimensions, and employ a panel data model to examine the impact of climate change vulnerability on this resilience. The findings indicate that, despite increasing global uncertainties, the resilience of energy consumption exhibits a rising trend in most countries. Climate change vulnerability exerts a significant negative effect on the resilience of energy consumption: a one-unit increase in climate change vulnerability results in a 0.4307-unit decrease in the absorption intensity of the resilience of energy consumption. Furthermore, through an in-depth analysis of its underlying mechanisms, we find that this impact primarily occurs through a weakening of energy supply, a reduction in energy intensity, the enhancement of governmental environmental regulations, a distortion of energy prices, and the instability of energy technologies. Our study contributes to the literature on energy supply and demand balance, specifically within the discourse on energy consumption in the face of climate change challenges. It broadens the concept of resilience to encompass energy consumption and introduces new resilience metrics, namely absorption intensity and absorption duration, thereby enhancing the comprehensiveness and comparability of resilience assessments. These findings are pivotal for improving strategic decision-making regarding energy in the context of increasing climate change challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"201 ","pages":"Article 107316"},"PeriodicalIF":4.8,"publicationDate":"2026-01-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145982067","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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