Pub Date : 2025-04-26DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107042
Aziz N. Berdiev , James W. Saunoris
This paper uniquely examines the noneconomic dimensions of a nation’s overall wellbeing by focusing on social progress and its impact on the shadow economy. The shadow economy serves an important function in a market economy by supplying goods and services that meet the social demands of society. We argue that deficits in social development, or social regression, prompt the expansion of the shadow economy. Employing cross-country panel data for 124 countries from 1991 to 2017 and two-way fixed effects instrumental variables estimation, the results show that advancements in social progress reduce the size of the underground sector. In terms of magnitude, the influence of social progress is nontrivial: a 1 percent increase in social progress reduces the shadow economy by about 2 percent. Moreover, considering the distinct dimensions of social performance, the findings reveal that improvements in basic human needs and opportunity aspects of social progress have the most robust effect in reducing the shadow economy. Our results underscore the value of investing in social development to curb the spread of the shadow economy.
{"title":"Navigating the shadows: Exploring the interaction between social progress and the shadow economy","authors":"Aziz N. Berdiev , James W. Saunoris","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uniquely examines the noneconomic dimensions of a nation’s overall wellbeing by focusing on social progress and its impact on the shadow economy. The shadow economy serves an important function in a market economy by supplying goods and services that meet the social demands of society. We argue that deficits in social development, or social regression, prompt the expansion of the shadow economy. Employing cross-country panel data for 124 countries from 1991 to 2017 and two-way fixed effects instrumental variables estimation, the results show that advancements in social progress reduce the size of the underground sector. In terms of magnitude, the influence of social progress is nontrivial: a 1 percent increase in social progress reduces the shadow economy by about 2 percent. Moreover, considering the distinct dimensions of social performance, the findings reveal that improvements in basic human needs and opportunity aspects of social progress have the most robust effect in reducing the shadow economy. Our results underscore the value of investing in social development to curb the spread of the shadow economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107042"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143873475","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-25DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107027
Michaela Collord , Sabatho Nyamsenda
This article explores the relationships between regime consolidation, labour informality, and class formation in African cities. It examines how, as part of broader efforts to build political support, incumbent leaders and their parties manipulate class formation among urban informal workers.
A defining feature of Africa’s rapid urbanisation is the expansion of a large tranche of low-income informal workers. We argue that, in a manner reminiscent of colonial efforts to control a then emerging urban working class, leaders adopt approaches to regulating labour informality—especially workers’ access to space and their symbolic recognition—that then influence class formation. These regulatory interventions either encourage greater unity among workers, or else help divide an incipient ‘urban mass’, introducing hierarchies between ‘respectable’ classes of small-scale ‘entrepreneurs’ and their more unruly counterparts. Having drawn these distinctions, we further theorise how and why incumbent leaders pursue one strategy or another, arguing that they regulate informal workers—and seek to influence their intra-class solidarities—in ways consistent with efforts both to consolidate a ruling coalition and to counter opposition electoral pressures.
We explore this theory further through our case study—Tanzania’s commercial capital, Dar es Salaam. This involves contrasting the regulatory approaches adopted by Presidents John Pombe Magufuli (2015–2021) and Samia Suluhu Hassan (2021–), both from Tanzania’s long-time ruling party, CCM. For our empirical material, we combine focus groups, interviews, participant observation, and press reviews. Finally, while our case study involves an authoritarian regime, we use our conclusion to reflect further on commonalities and differences across regime types, democratic or authoritarian, and on the significance of class-differentiated experiences of freedom and repression in the city.
{"title":"‘This country is free, but for the few’: Informal labour, class politics, and urban order in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania","authors":"Michaela Collord , Sabatho Nyamsenda","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article explores the relationships between regime consolidation, labour informality, and class formation in African cities. It examines how, as part of broader efforts to build political support, incumbent leaders and their parties manipulate class formation among urban informal workers.</div><div>A defining feature of Africa’s rapid urbanisation is the expansion of a large tranche of low-income informal workers. We argue that, in a manner reminiscent of colonial efforts to control a then emerging urban working class, leaders adopt approaches to regulating labour informality—especially workers’ <em>access to space</em> and their <em>symbolic recognition</em>—that then influence class formation. These regulatory interventions either encourage greater unity among workers, or else help divide an incipient ‘urban mass’, introducing hierarchies between ‘respectable’ classes of small-scale ‘entrepreneurs’ and their more unruly counterparts. Having drawn these distinctions, we further theorise how and why incumbent leaders pursue one strategy or another, arguing that they regulate informal workers—and seek to influence their intra-class solidarities—in ways consistent with efforts both to consolidate a ruling coalition and to counter opposition electoral pressures.</div><div>We explore this theory further through our case study—Tanzania’s commercial capital, Dar es Salaam. This involves contrasting the regulatory approaches adopted by Presidents John Pombe Magufuli (2015–2021) and Samia Suluhu Hassan (2021–), both from Tanzania’s long-time ruling party, CCM. For our empirical material, we combine focus groups, interviews, participant observation, and press reviews. Finally, while our case study involves an authoritarian regime, we use our conclusion to reflect further on commonalities and differences across regime types, democratic or authoritarian, and on the significance of class-differentiated experiences of freedom and repression in the city.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107027"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143868986","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-22DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107011
Amit Bhaduri , Kaustav Banerjee
While the colonial powers had access to lands and related resources in other countries for their initial phases of industrialisation, this choice is mostly unavailable to postcolonial countries. In this paper its consequence for the model of accumulation with land acquisition as the central variable in a post-colonial democracy is analysed through a government enabled corporate led industrialisation strategy. We develop a model of land acquisition in Section 2 with its implication for land use patterns taking into account the impacts of demand constraints due to a limited domestic and foreign market. The analysis brings out the net effect of land utilization pattern on employment and output in various situations, and shows its links with the growth of the informal labour markets as a necessary adjunct of the corporate land acquisition model. In section 3 the impact on the informal economy is considered in some details. It shows how a general scheme of cost and regulation arbitrage employed by the corporate sector captures to some extent its impact on the informal sector. The intertwined development of the organized with a vast unorganized sector requires political legitimization to be sustainable. The concluding section 4 deals with the typical legitimization strategies that are adopted to define a spectrum, and the emergence of varieties of corporate capitalist democracies with different role of the state. The paper attempts to identify some elements that partly account for success and failure of the state in ushering in development in post colonial democracies.
{"title":"Land acquisition and economic development: A decolonised view","authors":"Amit Bhaduri , Kaustav Banerjee","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107011","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107011","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>While the colonial powers had access to lands and related resources in other countries for their initial phases of industrialisation, this choice is mostly unavailable to postcolonial countries. In this paper its consequence for the model of accumulation with land acquisition as the central variable in a post-colonial democracy is analysed through a government enabled corporate led industrialisation strategy. We develop a model of land acquisition in <span><span>Section 2</span></span> with its implication for land use patterns taking into account the impacts of demand constraints due to a limited domestic and foreign market. The analysis brings out the net effect of land utilization pattern on employment and output in various situations, and shows its links with the growth of the informal labour markets as a necessary adjunct of the corporate land acquisition model. In <span><span>section 3</span></span> the impact on the informal economy is considered in some details. It shows how a general scheme of cost and regulation arbitrage employed by the corporate sector captures to some extent its impact on the informal sector. The intertwined development of the organized with a vast unorganized sector requires political legitimization to be sustainable. The concluding <span><span>section 4</span></span> deals with the typical legitimization strategies that are adopted to define a spectrum, and the emergence of varieties of corporate capitalist democracies with different role of the state. The paper attempts to identify some elements that partly account for success and failure of the state in ushering in development in post colonial democracies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107011"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143855032","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-21DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107043
Rehnuma Ferdous , Fiona Nunan
Patron-client relations have long played a significant role in influencing the management of fisheries and shaping fisherfolk livelihoods. Despite a vast literature on patron-client relations in fisheries, little literature explicitly examines how these relations influence fisheries co-management. This paper responds to this gap by reporting on research into how patron-client relations interact with fisheries co-management, with consequences for how fisheries co-management operates and performs. Taking Bangladesh as a case study, two examples of co-management supported by different donor-funded projects were investigated using a framework to analyse the nature and implications of patron-client relations on co-management. The research drew on the concepts of hidden and invisible power by Gaventa (2006) and the defining characteristics of patron-client relations and co-management to identify three key analytical themes: power relations; obligation and trust; and, cultural norms. The study found that the powerful non-fisherfolk senior males in the Panchayat (village-organization), the patrons in the studied areas, manipulated co-management structures and processes, used patron-client relations in the form of male community leaders (Panchayat)-fisherfolk links and developed informal rules to control access of the fisherfolk to fisheries and credit, to maintain their power and status. Patrons used existing systems of social status that set fishers at the bottom of social ranking and women largely away from public spaces, preventing the co-management systems from being inclusive and empowering. The research confirmed that patron-client relations within a fishing community can significantly shape externally-introduced co-management by influencing who is involved in fisheries co-management and how it functions.
{"title":"How patron-client relations influence fisheries co-management: A case study of Bangladesh","authors":"Rehnuma Ferdous , Fiona Nunan","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107043","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107043","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Patron-client relations have long played a significant role in influencing the management of fisheries and shaping fisherfolk livelihoods. Despite a vast literature on patron-client relations in fisheries, little literature explicitly examines how these relations influence fisheries co-management. This paper responds to this gap by reporting on research into how patron-client relations interact with fisheries co-management, with consequences for how fisheries co-management operates and performs. Taking Bangladesh as a case study, two examples of co-management supported by different donor-funded projects were investigated using a framework to analyse the nature and implications of patron-client relations on co-management. The research drew on the concepts of hidden and invisible power by <span><span>Gaventa (2006)</span></span> and the defining characteristics of patron-client relations and co-management to identify three key analytical themes: power relations; obligation and trust; and, cultural norms. The study found that the powerful non-fisherfolk senior males in the Panchayat (village-organization), the patrons in the studied areas, manipulated co-management structures and processes, used patron-client relations in the form of male community leaders (Panchayat)-fisherfolk links and developed informal rules to control access of the fisherfolk to fisheries and credit, to maintain their power and status. Patrons used existing systems of social status that set fishers at the bottom of social ranking and women largely away from public spaces, preventing the co-management systems from being inclusive and empowering. The research confirmed that patron-client relations within a fishing community can significantly shape externally-introduced co-management by influencing who is involved in fisheries co-management and how it functions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107043"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143851773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-19DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107024
Michael Albertus , Victor Menaldo , Jorge Rojas-Vallejos
Most new democracies begin operating under an authoritarian constitution from the past that favors elites connected to the previous era. While these constitutions are designed to be difficult to change, important changes nonetheless sometimes occur, occasionally at the behest of the very elites that these constitutions were meant to protect and favor. Why do elites support these changes? We develop a dynamic imperfect information bandwagoning model of reform to explain shifts in elite-biased constitutions. Unanticipated shocks can make constitutional changes overwhelmingly popular, encouraging moderate constitutional opponents and supporters to join a radical opposition in voting for reform. This encourages a president who supports the status quo to join the bandwagon by refraining from vetoing the reform, attempting to gain concessions in the meantime. We demonstrate the utility of the model in the context of reforms to the Chilean pension system in 2021.
{"title":"Why elites sometimes undo their own constitutional privileges","authors":"Michael Albertus , Victor Menaldo , Jorge Rojas-Vallejos","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Most new democracies begin operating under an authoritarian constitution from the past that favors elites connected to the previous era. While these constitutions are designed to be difficult to change, important changes nonetheless sometimes occur, occasionally at the behest of the very elites that these constitutions were meant to protect and favor. Why do elites support these changes? We develop a dynamic imperfect information bandwagoning model of reform to explain shifts in elite-biased constitutions. Unanticipated shocks can make constitutional changes overwhelmingly popular, encouraging moderate constitutional opponents and supporters to join a radical opposition in voting for reform. This encourages a president who supports the status quo to join the bandwagon by refraining from vetoing the reform, attempting to gain concessions in the meantime. We demonstrate the utility of the model in the context of reforms to the Chilean pension system in 2021.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107024"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143848462","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-18DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107004
Soumya Mishra
Rural-urban migration is a fundamental part of the structural transformation of economies. However, in labour-abundant economies such as India, where local and internal migrant labour are both available, firms prefer to hire cheaper migrant labour. What is the dynamic between the locals and migrants that emerges in this case? This paper aims to answer this question by analysing the role played by migrants in mediating the transition from the agrarian to the industrial. Using qualitative data and focussing on the case of Noida and Greater Noida in the vicinity of the Delhi National Capital Region, this paper conceptualises contributions of migrants to local communities as “migrant capital” generated by their role as (a) tenants that sustain a local rentier economy benefitting the locals; (b) consumers who invigorate the local market of service provision. These economic opportunities thrive on the presence of a large migrant population with specific needs. Existing research has examined the contributions of migrants to their native communities– however, the crucial role of migrants in sustaining the rural to urban and agrarian to industrial transformation in receiving communities is overlooked.
{"title":"Migrant capital: The role of internal migrants in mediating agrarian-industrial transformation in Northern India","authors":"Soumya Mishra","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107004","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107004","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Rural-urban migration is a fundamental part of the structural transformation of economies. However, in labour-abundant economies such as India, where local and internal migrant labour are both available, firms prefer to hire cheaper migrant labour. What is the dynamic between the locals and migrants that emerges in this case? This paper aims to answer this question by analysing the role played by migrants in mediating the transition from the agrarian to the industrial. Using qualitative data and focussing on the case of Noida and Greater Noida in the vicinity of the Delhi National Capital Region, this paper conceptualises contributions of migrants to local communities as “migrant capital” generated by their role as (a) tenants that sustain a local rentier economy benefitting the locals; (b) consumers who invigorate the local market of service provision. These economic opportunities thrive on the presence of a large migrant population with specific needs. Existing research has examined the contributions of migrants to their native communities– however, the crucial role of migrants in sustaining the rural to urban and agrarian to industrial transformation in receiving communities is overlooked.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107004"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143843574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-18DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107005
Frank-Borge Wietzke
This article discusses the recent rise in protests in Africa from within the framework of Urban Bias Theory. It focuses on the often-made claim that higher rates of protest in urban areas disproportionately shift the attention of policy makers towards concerns of relatively advantaged urban populations. The article contrasts these assertions with evidence that wealthier rural producer regions also often have high propensities for protests. Building on these insights, it proposes a revised set of predictions that connect urban–rural protest differentials to local economic wellbeing through a U-shaped relationship: whereas urban populations have a mobilization advantage over rural inhabitants at the lowest and highest ends of local economic development, these advantages diminish at middling-to-higher levels of economic wellbeing, where protest propensities of rural producer regions are most likely to converge with those of urban areas. The article provides empirical support for these expectations based on Africa-wide subnational data and multi-country census records. The results hold in a range of robustness tests, using alternative data sources and model- and variable-specifications. The article speaks to the special issue’s central concern with place-based analysis, highlighting the need to study evolving forms of political contestation across the entire spectrum of places. It also provides novel micro-level evidence on the link between economic wellbeing, urbanization, and non-electoral forms of political mobilization that was often underdeveloped in earlier formulations of Urban Bias Theory.
{"title":"Beyond urban bias? Urban-rural inequalities and popular protest in Africa","authors":"Frank-Borge Wietzke","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107005","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107005","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article discusses the recent rise in protests in Africa from within the framework of Urban Bias Theory. It focuses on the often-made claim that higher rates of protest in urban areas disproportionately shift the attention of policy makers towards concerns of relatively advantaged urban populations. The article contrasts these assertions with evidence that wealthier rural producer regions also often have high propensities for protests. Building on these insights, it proposes a revised set of predictions that connect urban–rural protest differentials to local economic wellbeing through a U-shaped relationship: whereas urban populations have a mobilization advantage over rural inhabitants at the lowest and highest ends of local economic development, these advantages diminish at middling-to-higher levels of economic wellbeing, where protest propensities of rural producer regions are most likely to converge with those of urban areas. The article provides empirical support for these expectations based on Africa-wide subnational data and multi-country census records. The results hold in a range of robustness tests, using alternative data sources and model- and variable-specifications. The article speaks to the special issue’s central concern with place-based analysis, highlighting the need to study evolving forms of political contestation across the entire spectrum of places. It also provides novel micro-level evidence on the link between economic wellbeing, urbanization, and non-electoral forms of political mobilization that was often underdeveloped in earlier formulations of Urban Bias Theory.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107005"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143848461","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Increasing trends in forced displacement and poverty are expected to intensify in coming years. Data science approaches can be useful for governments and humanitarian organizations in designing more effective targeting mechanisms. This study applies machine learning techniques and combines geospatial data with survey data collected from Syrian refugees in Lebanon over the last four years to help develop more effective and efficient targeting strategies. Our proposed approach helps: (1) identify the households most in need of assistance based on a flexible, multidimensional poverty metric and (2) operationalize this method without resorting to impractical and expensive data collection procedures. Our findings highlight the importance of a comprehensive and versatile framework that captures other poverty dimensions along with the commonly used expenditure metric, while also allowing for regular updates to keep up with (rapidly) changing contexts over time. The analysis also points to geographical heterogeneities that are likely to impact the effectiveness of targeting strategies. The insights from this study have important implications for agencies seeking to improve targeting and increase the efficiency of shrinking humanitarian funding.
{"title":"A machine learning approach to assessing multidimensional poverty and targeting assistance among forcibly displaced populations","authors":"Angela C. Lyons , Alejandro Montoya Castano , Josephine Kass-Hanna , Yifang Zhang , Aiman Soliman","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107013","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107013","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Increasing trends in forced displacement and poverty are expected to intensify in coming years. Data science approaches can be useful for governments and humanitarian organizations in designing more effective targeting mechanisms. This study applies machine learning techniques and combines geospatial data with survey data collected from Syrian refugees in Lebanon over the last four years to help develop more effective and efficient targeting strategies. Our proposed approach helps: (1) identify the households most in need of assistance based on a flexible, multidimensional poverty metric and (2) operationalize this method without resorting to impractical and expensive data collection procedures. Our findings highlight the importance of a comprehensive and versatile framework that captures other poverty dimensions along with the commonly used expenditure metric, while also allowing for regular updates to keep up with (rapidly) changing contexts over time. The analysis also points to geographical heterogeneities that are likely to impact the effectiveness of targeting strategies. The insights from this study have important implications for agencies seeking to improve targeting and increase the efficiency of shrinking humanitarian funding.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107013"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143834900","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Low-income countries are disproportionately affected by disasters, a situation that will worsen with global warming. Evacuation is an effective strategy to reduce the burden of disasters. Existing evacuation plans are however primarily based on studies conducted in high-income countries, ignoring contextual factors of low-income countries, such as large families with many children, low car ownership and high crime rates. We argue that these contextual factors give rise to partial evacuation, going against the long-held assumption in evacuation studies that households evacuate as a unit. To demonstrate this empirically, we study the evacuation behavior of almost 4,000 individuals from 500 households in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, after the 2021 Nyiragongo volcano eruption. We rely on a structured survey and statistical analysis, complemented with narratives from open-ended interviews. Almost a third of households partially evacuated, leaving some members behind. Traditional gender roles largely determined who stayed behind or evacuated. Able women were more likely to evacuate, mostly on foot, to accompany children and the least mobile to safety, while able men and household heads were more likely to stay behind to protect property against looting. Our findings highlight the need to consider intra-household dynamics in evacuation behavior and design evacuation policies tailored to the specific context of low-income countries.
{"title":"You go, I stay: intrahousehold evacuation behavior upon a disaster","authors":"Elias Ndatabaye Maombi , Elie Lunanga , Nik Stoop , Marijke Verpoorten","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107032","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107032","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-income countries are disproportionately affected by disasters, a situation that will worsen with global warming. Evacuation is an effective strategy to reduce the burden of disasters. Existing evacuation plans are however primarily based on studies conducted in high-income countries, ignoring contextual factors of low-income countries, such as large families with many children, low car ownership and high crime rates. We argue that these contextual factors give rise to partial evacuation, going against the long-held assumption in evacuation studies that households evacuate as a unit. To demonstrate this empirically, we study the evacuation behavior of almost 4,000 individuals from 500 households in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, after the 2021 Nyiragongo volcano eruption. We rely on a structured survey and statistical analysis, complemented with narratives from open-ended interviews. Almost a third of households partially evacuated, leaving some members behind. Traditional gender roles largely determined who stayed behind or evacuated. Able women were more likely to evacuate, mostly on foot, to accompany children and the least mobile to safety, while able men and household heads were more likely to stay behind to protect property against looting. Our findings highlight the need to consider intra-household dynamics in evacuation behavior and design evacuation policies tailored to the specific context of low-income countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"192 ","pages":"Article 107032"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-04-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143828300","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-15DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.107026
Nicos Komninos, Anastasia Panori
This paper delves into the current EU policy and strategy for advancing smart, carbon–neutral development across Europe, as outlined by the EU Missions framework. This framework aims to boost the resilience to climate change of at least 150 European regions and communities and facilitate the transformation of 100 cities into climate-neutral and smart urban centers by 2030. Our primary objective is to explore potential synergies between theoretical concepts and their practical application in realizing smart carbon–neutral development. Specifically, we examine the challenges associated with scaling processes inherent in smart carbon–neutral development alongside the transformative and systemic changes required to achieve significant levels of both mitigation and adaptation. Using the Net Zero Action Plan for Thessaloniki as a case study, we examine the efficacy of designing policies at both the operational and governance levels. We argue that a complexity-based approach is applicable in this context: as we refine our understanding of the spatial impact of interventions, our certainty regarding the necessary governance level diminishes, and vice versa. Finally, we discuss the potential for realizing the ambitious objectives of the EU Missions framework through a convolution perspective and the challenges associated with bridging the gap between theoretical concepts and practical implementation.
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