Pub Date : 2025-02-20DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106958
Nicholas Bainton , Emilia E. Skrzypek , Éléonore Lèbre
A global push for an energy transition to combat climate change is fuelling demand for energy transition minerals and metals (ETMs) needed for renewable energy-systems. As the primary solution to our planetary problem, the energy transition helps to enlarge the extractive industries and increases the pressure to extract ETMs from places already acutely exposed climate change, like the Pacific Islands region. In this paper we develop the concept of compound exposure to examine the combined effects of extraction and climate change in the Pacific. Drawing from a global dataset of ETM projects, we have created a first-of-kind sub-set of ETM projects in the Pacific, mapped against indicators of environmental, social, governance and climate vulnerability for the places where those projects are located. We found higher levels of situated vulnerability around ETM projects in the Pacific compared to global results. A rush for the resources in the Pacific will compound the consequences of climate change and the multiple stressors associated with resource extraction and will enlarge exposure to harm. We argue that extractivist solutions to climate change work to close off other pathways and amplify the worst effects of compound exposure in the Pacific, and beyond.
{"title":"Compound exposure: Climate change, vulnerability and the energy-extractives nexus in the Pacific","authors":"Nicholas Bainton , Emilia E. Skrzypek , Éléonore Lèbre","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106958","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106958","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A global push for an energy transition to combat climate change is fuelling demand for energy transition minerals and metals (ETMs) needed for renewable energy-systems. As the primary solution to our planetary problem, the energy transition helps to enlarge the extractive industries and increases the pressure to extract ETMs from places already acutely exposed climate change, like the Pacific Islands region. In this paper we develop the concept of compound exposure to examine the combined effects of extraction and climate change in the Pacific. Drawing from a global dataset of ETM projects, we have created a first-of-kind sub-set of ETM projects in the Pacific, mapped against indicators of environmental, social, governance and climate vulnerability for the places where those projects are located. We found higher levels of situated vulnerability around ETM projects in the Pacific compared to global results. A rush for the resources in the Pacific will compound the consequences of climate change and the multiple stressors associated with resource extraction and will enlarge exposure to harm. We argue that extractivist solutions to climate change work to close off other pathways and amplify the worst effects of compound exposure in the Pacific, and beyond.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"190 ","pages":"Article 106958"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143445164","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-18DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106952
Ana Paula De la O Campos, Yeshwas Admasu, Katia Alejandra Covarrubias, Benjamin Kaylor Davis, Ana Maria Díaz Gonzalez
This paper investigates how household income strategies evolve amidst ongoing structural transformation in lower and middle-income countries, with a particular focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We examine whether rural households in developing countries follow the expected livelihood pathways that have historically accompanied structural transformation. Given the divergent trends suggested by previous studies in SSA, we also explore which livelihood pathways might offer greater poverty reduction potential in SSA and other developing regions. Using a harmonized dataset from 41 countries and 103 nationally representative surveys, we analyze participation in various income-generating activities and the impact on household income and welfare. This study characterizes income specialization or diversification within households and estimates the relationship between each income source and overall per capita household income as well as the correlation between different livelihood pathways and poverty reduction across expenditure levels. Our findings reveal highly diversified income strategies globally. However, countries in SSA show greater specialization in on-farm income-generating activities compared to Rest of the World (ROW) countries at similar levels of GDP per capita. This divergence raises questions about the nature of structural change in SSA and suggests different transformation pathways, notably towards self-employment in the services sector and less towards non-agricultural wage employment. The study has significant policy implications, highlighting SSA’s emerging different path in structural transformation, which highlight the need for rural development strategies that both enhance the productivity of on-farm income sources as well as growth of the off-farm rural economy.
{"title":"Reassessing transformation pathways: Global trends in rural household farm and non-farm livelihood strategies with a spotlight on Sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"Ana Paula De la O Campos, Yeshwas Admasu, Katia Alejandra Covarrubias, Benjamin Kaylor Davis, Ana Maria Díaz Gonzalez","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106952","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106952","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper investigates how household income strategies evolve amidst ongoing structural transformation in lower and middle-income countries, with a particular focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We examine whether rural households in developing countries follow the expected livelihood pathways that have historically accompanied structural transformation. Given the divergent trends suggested by previous studies in SSA, we also explore which livelihood pathways might offer greater poverty reduction potential in SSA and other developing regions. Using a harmonized dataset from 41 countries and 103 nationally representative surveys, we analyze participation in various income-generating activities and the impact on household income and welfare. This study characterizes income specialization or diversification within households and estimates the relationship between each income source and overall per capita household income as well as the correlation between different livelihood pathways and poverty reduction across expenditure levels. Our findings reveal highly diversified income strategies globally. However, countries in SSA show greater specialization in on-farm income-generating activities compared to Rest of the World (ROW) countries at similar levels of GDP per capita. This divergence raises questions about the nature of structural change in SSA and suggests different transformation pathways, notably towards self-employment in the services sector and less towards non-agricultural wage employment. The study has significant policy implications, highlighting SSA’s emerging different path in structural transformation, which highlight the need for rural development strategies that both enhance the productivity of on-farm income sources as well as growth of the off-farm rural economy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"190 ","pages":"Article 106952"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143427713","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106950
Yi-Ju Su , Pei-An Liao , Hung-Hao Chang
The agricultural market is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Since vegetables are highly perishable, vegetable prices fluctuate dramatically as the result of natural disaster shocks. This study examines the impacts of typhoons on fresh cabbage price and quantity using daily transaction data on the largest wholesale market in Taiwan. We pay special attention to the effects on market price and quantity in different time periods of typhoon visits. We distinguish the effects of price and quantity as a result of the changes in consumer demand and market supply. We further examine whether the sequence of the disaster shocks can result in different outcomes. Employing the difference-in-differences and event study approaches to identify the causal and dynamic effects, we find that the occurrence of typhoons had caused the cabbage market price to rise significantly. The price increases are mainly driven by consumers’ psychological expectations rather than from the supply side. In contrast, the equilibrium quantity of the cabbage market is stable because the stock releases of refrigerated imported cabbage effectively balance the domestic market needs. Finally, the availability bias theory proposed in the behavioral economics literature evidently reinforces Taiwanese consumers’ irrational stockpiling as we find that the cabbage price starts to rise earlier and stays at a high level for a longer time during the second and third typhoon hit Taiwan in the same year.
{"title":"How does food market respond to natural disaster Shocks? Evidence from the cabbage wholesale market","authors":"Yi-Ju Su , Pei-An Liao , Hung-Hao Chang","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106950","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106950","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The agricultural market is highly vulnerable to natural disasters. Since vegetables are highly perishable, vegetable prices fluctuate dramatically as the result of natural disaster shocks. This study examines the impacts of typhoons on fresh cabbage price and quantity using daily transaction data on the largest wholesale market in Taiwan. We pay special attention to the effects on market price and quantity in different time periods of typhoon visits. We distinguish the effects of price and quantity as a result of the changes in consumer demand and market supply. We further examine whether the sequence of the disaster shocks can result in different outcomes. Employing the difference-in-differences and event study approaches to identify the causal and dynamic effects, we find that the occurrence of typhoons had caused the cabbage market price to rise significantly. The price increases are mainly driven by consumers’ psychological expectations rather than from the supply side. In contrast, the equilibrium quantity of the cabbage market is stable because the stock releases of refrigerated imported cabbage effectively balance the domestic market needs. Finally, the availability bias theory proposed in the behavioral economics literature evidently reinforces Taiwanese consumers’ irrational stockpiling as we find that the cabbage price starts to rise earlier and stays at a high level for a longer time during the second and third typhoon hit Taiwan in the same year.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"190 ","pages":"Article 106950"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143419918","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-16DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106929
Muhammad Tayyab Safdar
As part of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese actors have invested substantial resources in infrastructure projects in developing countries. Many of these projects are now operational. However, there is limited discussion of the factors contributing to the implementation of projects or the subsequent difficulties faced by Chinese actors during operations. This paper addresses this gap using a case study of Chinese investment in Pakistan’s power sector under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It uses the strategic action field (SAF) framework to analyse the interplay of Chinese and local actors in Pakistan’s power sector. Using in-depth qualitative interviews, it shows that Chinese and Pakistani cooperation in the power sector is marked by convergence and contestation. The early stages of the SAF were characterised by the convergence between Chinese and Pakistani elite interests, resulting in significant investment. Chinese investors enjoyed greater bargaining power at this stage and received multiple institutionalised concessions from the host country at the rule-setting stage. As projects became operational, increasing contestation culminated in an inversion of the field’s power dynamics. Various factors precipitated this inversion, including high-level political changes in Pakistan, which elevated opposition political leaders who were excluded from the SAF at the negotiation stage and questioned the field’s rules. Pakistan’s economic challenges further exacerbated problems as the host country sought to renegotiate the long-term agreements to reduce the returns for Chinese-financed power plants and alter financing terms. Though the host government has been unable to change the agreements, it has reneged on implementing the critical rules safeguarding the interests of Chinese investors. Chinese investors face diminishing leverage when dealing with host country governments that do not enforce rules underpinning investment due to the sticky nature of infrastructure investments and the Chinese state’s geopolitical interests.
{"title":"The BRI in Pakistan’s power sector: From initial success to structural challenges","authors":"Muhammad Tayyab Safdar","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106929","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106929","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>As part of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese actors have invested substantial resources in infrastructure projects in developing countries. Many of these projects are now operational. However, there is limited discussion of the factors contributing to the implementation of projects or the subsequent difficulties faced by Chinese actors during operations. This paper addresses this gap using a case study of Chinese investment in Pakistan’s power sector under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It uses the strategic action field (SAF) framework to analyse the interplay of Chinese and local actors in Pakistan’s power sector. Using in-depth qualitative interviews, it shows that Chinese and Pakistani cooperation in the power sector is marked by convergence and contestation. The early stages of the SAF were characterised by the convergence between Chinese and Pakistani elite interests, resulting in significant investment. Chinese investors enjoyed greater bargaining power at this stage and received multiple institutionalised concessions from the host country at the rule-setting stage. As projects became operational, increasing contestation culminated in an inversion of the field’s power dynamics. Various factors precipitated this inversion, including high-level political changes in Pakistan, which elevated opposition political leaders who were excluded from the SAF at the negotiation stage and questioned the field’s rules. Pakistan’s economic challenges further exacerbated problems as the host country sought to renegotiate the long-term agreements to reduce the returns for Chinese-financed power plants and alter financing terms. Though the host government has been unable to change the agreements, it has reneged on implementing the critical rules safeguarding the interests of Chinese investors. Chinese investors face diminishing leverage when dealing with host country governments that do not enforce rules underpinning investment due to the sticky nature of infrastructure investments and the Chinese state’s geopolitical interests.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"190 ","pages":"Article 106929"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-14DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106948
Marie Widengård
This study explores Accompong marronage as a form of displacement ecology, showing how the Maroons of Accompong in Jamaica have adapted their strategies for autonomy and resistance from the colonial period to today. Descendants of formerly enslaved Africans and Indigenous Taíno, the Accompong Maroons embody resilience, evolving from military resistance against colonial forces to modern ecological stewardship, state-making, and legal advocacy. Central to their current struggle is their opposition to bauxite mining in Cockpit Country—ancestral land they aim to protect. This conflict reflects broader issues of sovereignty, land rights, and the Maroons’ right to safeguard lands with historical and cultural significance. By applying the concept of marronage metamorphosis, this study situates Accompong’s resistance within displacement ecology, examining how communities actively resist displacement and reshape their environments to sustain autonomy and cultural continuity. These histories of Maroon self-determination provide valuable insights into contemporary struggles for land and identity. It emphasizes the importance of understanding displacement not as an isolated event but as an ongoing process intertwined with historical legacies and contemporary challenges.
{"title":"From displacement to statehood: The ecological and political metamorphosis of accompong marronage","authors":"Marie Widengård","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106948","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106948","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores Accompong marronage as a form of displacement ecology, showing how the Maroons of Accompong in Jamaica have adapted their strategies for autonomy and resistance from the colonial period to today. Descendants of formerly enslaved Africans and Indigenous Taíno, the Accompong Maroons embody resilience, evolving from military resistance against colonial forces to modern ecological stewardship, state-making, and legal advocacy. Central to their current struggle is their opposition to bauxite mining in Cockpit Country—ancestral land they aim to protect. This conflict reflects broader issues of sovereignty, land rights, and the Maroons’ right to safeguard lands with historical and cultural significance. By applying the concept of marronage metamorphosis, this study situates Accompong’s resistance within displacement ecology, examining how communities actively resist displacement and reshape their environments to sustain autonomy and cultural continuity. These histories of Maroon self-determination provide valuable insights into contemporary struggles for land and identity. It emphasizes the importance of understanding displacement not as an isolated event but as an ongoing process intertwined with historical legacies and contemporary challenges.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"190 ","pages":"Article 106948"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143420304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-12DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106927
Margaret H. Frost , SangEun Kim , Carlos Scartascini , Paula Zamora , Elizabeth J. Zechmeister
Political trust is foundational to democratic legitimacy, representative governance, and the provision of effective public policy. Various shocks can influence this trust, steering countries onto positive or negative trajectories. This study examines whether natural disasters can impact general political trust and if disaster relief efforts can mitigate these effects. We investigate the relationships between disaster, trust, and aid using novel survey data collected before and after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Mexico City in September 2017. Our findings reveal that the disaster resulted in an 11% decrease in general political trust. Additionally, we demonstrate that geographical proximity to disaster relief efforts may counterbalance this decline in trust. This study contributes to the scholarship on the politics of disasters and offers policy implications, highlighting the role of disaster assistance in potentially restoring general political trust after a disaster.
{"title":"Disaster and political trust: Evidence from the 2017 Mexico city earthquake","authors":"Margaret H. Frost , SangEun Kim , Carlos Scartascini , Paula Zamora , Elizabeth J. Zechmeister","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106927","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106927","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Political trust is foundational to democratic legitimacy, representative governance, and the provision of effective public policy. Various shocks can influence this trust, steering countries onto positive or negative trajectories. This study examines whether natural disasters can impact general political trust and if disaster relief efforts can mitigate these effects. We investigate the relationships between disaster, trust, and aid using novel survey data collected before and after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake struck Mexico City in September 2017. Our findings reveal that the disaster resulted in an 11% decrease in general political trust. Additionally, we demonstrate that geographical proximity to disaster relief efforts may counterbalance this decline in trust. This study contributes to the scholarship on the politics of disasters and offers policy implications, highlighting the role of disaster assistance in potentially restoring general political trust after a disaster.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"189 ","pages":"Article 106927"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143394607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-11DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106873
Vikramaditya Thakur
This paper uses ethnographic fieldwork and archival records concerning seven government projects, large dams and protected areas, to study the successful mobilization by thousands of rural lower caste and other marginal groups in the western Indian state of Maharashtra. Led by their organic leaders, they first formulated and repeatedly reshaped a state policy of resettlement for project affected people due to development schemes and other state ventures since 1976, and have ensured its implementation in rural settings for nearly five decades. The paper argues that the politics and worldview of these project-affected persons, mostly illiterate and others with some education, reflects a phenomenon that I term vernacular modernity with roots in the lower-caste cultural revolt from the early colonial period that adapted the European enlightenment discourse to the local setting for questioning existing sociopolitical inequalities. Generations of left leaders thereafter have been constructively reconfiguring the contours of modernity, development, democracy and state-making at the margins along with many community leaders who have been shaping their own resettlement as a state infrastructure project. The paper also highlights the political economy of state projects and the challenges concerning forced resettlement processes including shrinking land holdings, a lackadaisical state machinery, host–guest conflicts in the new setting and related issues. This exploratory work tries to strike a conversation between two disparate sets of literature in critical social science concerning protected areas and infrastructure while it offers a fresh empirical perspective on modernity and subaltern politics in rural India.
{"title":"Vernacular Modernity: The politics of the Project-Affected people in rural western India","authors":"Vikramaditya Thakur","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106873","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2024.106873","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper uses ethnographic fieldwork and archival records concerning seven government projects, large dams and protected areas, to study the successful mobilization by thousands of rural lower caste and other marginal groups in the western Indian state of Maharashtra. Led by their organic leaders, they first formulated and repeatedly reshaped a state policy of resettlement for project affected people due to development schemes and other state ventures since 1976, and have ensured its implementation in rural settings for nearly five decades. The paper argues that the politics and worldview of these project-affected persons, mostly illiterate and others with some education, reflects a phenomenon that I term vernacular modernity with roots in the lower-caste cultural revolt from the early colonial period that adapted the European enlightenment discourse to the local setting for questioning existing sociopolitical inequalities. Generations of left leaders thereafter have been constructively reconfiguring the contours of modernity, development, democracy and state-making at the margins along with many community leaders who have been shaping their own resettlement as a state infrastructure project. The paper also highlights the political economy of state projects and the challenges concerning forced resettlement processes including shrinking land holdings, a lackadaisical state machinery, host–guest conflicts in the new setting and related issues. This exploratory work tries to strike a conversation between two disparate sets of literature in critical social science concerning protected areas and infrastructure while it offers a fresh empirical perspective on modernity and subaltern politics in rural India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"189 ","pages":"Article 106873"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143388283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106944
Mariano Féliz
This article evaluates the potential and limits of developmentalist policies in Latin America. It first traces how the ideas arose in a uniquely Latin American context of ECLAC structuralism and debates on dependence and how these ideas, transformed through neoliberalism, brought life to new developmentalism during the pink tide of the 2000s. Second, it evaluates the tradition’s practical and theoretical strengths and limits from the perspective of Latin American Marxist dependency theory. In this case, the analysis includes the canonical debates within the Marxist dependency theory and reflections based on new debates on value, state, feminist and ecological Marxism.
Finally, the article illustrates these strengths and limitations through the case of Argentina. The article shows how the limits and possibilities of developmentalist strategies relate to theoretical debates and the practical realities of class struggle.
{"title":"From development to dependency in Latin America. A critical stance on Argentina’s developmentalist experiences","authors":"Mariano Féliz","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106944","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106944","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article evaluates the potential and limits of developmentalist policies in Latin America. It first traces how the ideas arose in a uniquely Latin American context of ECLAC structuralism and debates on dependence and how these ideas, transformed through neoliberalism, brought life to new developmentalism during the pink tide of the 2000s. Second, it evaluates the tradition’s practical and theoretical strengths and limits from the perspective of Latin American Marxist dependency theory. In this case, the analysis includes the canonical debates within the Marxist dependency theory and reflections based on new debates on value, state, feminist and ecological Marxism.</div><div>Finally, the article illustrates these strengths and limitations through the case of Argentina. The article shows how the limits and possibilities of developmentalist strategies relate to theoretical debates and the practical realities of class struggle.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"189 ","pages":"Article 106944"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143274804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-05DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106931
Sam Hak Kan Tang , Yichen Wang , Yong Wang
Low-skilled emigration is generally construed as benign and even beneficial for the migrant-sending countries. However, it can also lead to a disincentive effect on human capital formation in the source countries. Using a panel bilateral migration dataset that captures the surge of low-skill migrants in OECD countries in the 2000s, we study how low-skilled emigration affects human capital formation in the migrant-sending countries. We find that the expected returns to low-skilled emigration reduce long-run human capital formation as measured by the average years of schooling and the human capital index of the migrant-sending countries in the subsequent decade. This negative effect on overall human capital formation is manifested through a substantial reduction in tertiary educational attainment, which is both statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests and alternative model specifications. Additionally, there is some evidence of a positive association between the expected returns to low-skilled emigration and secondary educational attainment in the subsequent decade. An important qualification is that only middle- and high-income countries are strongly affected by low-skilled emigration, while low-income countries show little to no disincentive effect.
{"title":"Curse of low-skilled emigration on human capital formation: Evidence from the migration surge of the 2000s","authors":"Sam Hak Kan Tang , Yichen Wang , Yong Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106931","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106931","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Low-skilled emigration is generally construed as benign and even beneficial for the migrant-sending countries. However, it can also lead to a disincentive effect on human capital formation in the source countries. Using a panel bilateral migration dataset that captures the surge of low-skill migrants in OECD countries in the 2000s, we study how low-skilled emigration affects human capital formation in the migrant-sending countries. We find that the expected returns to low-skilled emigration reduce long-run human capital formation as measured by the average years of schooling and the human capital index of the migrant-sending countries in the subsequent decade. This negative effect on overall human capital formation is manifested through a substantial reduction in tertiary educational attainment, which is both statistically significant and robust to various sensitivity tests and alternative model specifications. Additionally, there is some evidence of a positive association between the expected returns to low-skilled emigration and secondary educational attainment in the subsequent decade. An important qualification is that only middle- and high-income countries are strongly affected by low-skilled emigration, while low-income countries show little to no disincentive effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"189 ","pages":"Article 106931"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143274803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-04DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106932
Weishan Tan , Guangjun Shen , Guangsu Zhou
Job polarization is common in advanced countries due to routine-biased technological changes and globalization. In developing countries, however, the employment structure is left unexplored. This research finds that China has witnessed a reverse trend in the employment structure since 2000. In particular, job counter-polarization was seen due to the disproportionate rise in lower-middle-skill occupations. Further study provides evidence that export expansion increases the employment share of lower-middle-skill occupations. Mechanism analysis shows that export expansion increases routine-tasks intensive occupations, which are also lower-middle-skill occupations. This paper provides new insights into occupational structure based on typical facts in China and examines the hypotheses of routine-biased technological change and globalization from a novel perspective.
{"title":"The transfer of employment structure: Export expansion and the rise of lower-middle-skill occupations in China","authors":"Weishan Tan , Guangjun Shen , Guangsu Zhou","doi":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106932","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.worlddev.2025.106932","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Job polarization is common in advanced countries due to routine-biased technological changes and globalization. In developing countries, however, the employment structure is left unexplored. This research finds that China has witnessed a reverse trend in the employment structure since 2000. In particular, job counter-polarization was seen due to the disproportionate rise in lower-middle-skill occupations. Further study provides evidence that export expansion increases the employment share of lower-middle-skill occupations. Mechanism analysis shows that export expansion increases routine-tasks intensive occupations, which are also lower-middle-skill occupations. This paper provides new insights into occupational structure based on typical facts in China and examines the hypotheses of routine-biased technological change and globalization from a novel perspective.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48463,"journal":{"name":"World Development","volume":"189 ","pages":"Article 106932"},"PeriodicalIF":5.4,"publicationDate":"2025-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143098271","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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