A new end-user-oriented and dynamic approach to post-disaster resilience quantification for individual facilities.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI:10.1111/risa.17637
Gemma Cremen
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Abstract

Community recovery from a disaster is a complex process, in which the importance of different types of infrastructure functionality can change over time. Most of the myriad of metrics available for measuring disaster resilience do not capture the dynamic importance of functionality explicitly, however. This means that very different recovery trajectories of a given infrastructure can correspond to the same resilience value, regardless of variations in its utility over time. While some efforts have been made to integrate features of time dependency into individual facility resilience quantification, the resulting metrics either capture only a limited set of temporal instances throughout the post-disaster phase or do not offer a way to prioritize time steps in line with variations in the importance of facility functionality. This study proposes a novel, straightforward metric for component-level post-disaster resilience quantification that overcomes the aforementioned limitations. The metric involves a dynamic weighting component that enables stakeholders to place varying emphasis on different temporal points throughout the recovery process. The end-user-centered approach to resilience quantification facilitated by the metric allows for flexible, context-specific interpretations of infrastructure functionality importance that may vary across different communities. The metric is demonstrated through a hypothetical case study of infrastructure facilities with varying degrees of importance across the post-disaster recovery period, which showcases its versatility relative to a previously well-established measurement of component-level resilience. The proposed metric has significant potential for use in stakeholder-driven approaches to decision making on critical infrastructure (as well as other types of built environment) recovery and resilience.

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以最终用户为导向、动态量化单个设施灾后恢复能力的新方法。
社区灾后恢复是一个复杂的过程,不同类型基础设施功能的重要性会随着时间的推移而变化。然而,大多数用于衡量灾后恢复能力的指标都没有明确反映功能的动态重要性。这就意味着,特定基础设施的不同恢复轨迹可以对应相同的抗灾能力值,而不管其效用随时间的变化。虽然人们已经努力将时间依赖性特征纳入单个设施的复原力量化中,但由此产生的指标要么只能捕捉整个灾后阶段中有限的时间实例,要么无法根据设施功能重要性的变化对时间步骤进行优先排序。本研究提出了一种新颖、直接的灾后复原力量化指标,克服了上述局限性。该指标包含一个动态加权组件,使利益相关者能够在整个恢复过程中对不同的时间点给予不同的重视。该指标所采用的以最终用户为中心的抗灾能力量化方法允许根据具体情况灵活解释基础设施功能的重要性,不同社区的情况可能各不相同。通过对灾后恢复期间具有不同重要程度的基础设施进行假设案例研究,展示了该指标相对于之前成熟的组件级复原力衡量标准的多功能性。在利益相关者驱动的关键基础设施(以及其他类型的建筑环境)恢复和复原力决策方法中,拟议的度量方法具有巨大的应用潜力。
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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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