Do floods widen the economic disparity gap?

IF 2.6 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Progress in Disaster Science Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI:10.1016/j.pdisas.2024.100362
Leon Vin , Akiyuki Kawasaki
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Abstract

Floods exacerbate economic inequality, disproportionately affecting the poor in flood-prone areas while the rich in non-flood-prone regions continue to prosper. While this trend was illustrated conceptually and qualitatively, this study offers the first quantitative evidence that floods widen the economic disparity gap between the rich and poor in flooded and non-flooded areas. Using Household Interview Survey (HIS) data, we analyze the floods of Thailand's Chao Phraya River in 2011 and 2021 to measure the economic impact on households. The economic gap between the non-flooded rich and flooded poor widened from 38,539 Baht in 2011 to 104,897 Baht in 2021, a 2.7-fold increase. Surprisingly, the poor in our study differed from the hypothesis in that there was still improving economic growth, albeit small. Floods decrease the poor's ability to accumulate wealth – 9.2%, as opposed to 60.7% for the rich – although their impact on widening disparity for households of the same economic stratum was far greater for the poor (widened 18×) than for the rich (widened 4.7×). Finally, we propose ‘net total cash’ as a better measure of economic change compared to ‘income’ or ‘expenditure’, minimizing external influences like the COVID-19 pandemic, which in 2021 caused income to plummet and expenditure to rise.

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洪水会扩大经济差距吗?
洪水加剧了经济不平等,对洪水多发地区的穷人造成了不成比例的影响,而非洪水多发地区的富人则继续富裕。虽然这一趋势已在概念上和定性上得到说明,但本研究首次提供了洪水扩大了洪涝地区和非洪涝地区贫富之间经济差距的定量证据。我们利用住户访谈调查 (HIS) 数据,分析了 2011 年和 2021 年泰国湄南河洪水对住户经济的影响。未被洪水淹没的富人与被洪水淹没的穷人之间的经济差距从 2011 年的 38,539 泰铢扩大到 2021 年的 104,897 泰铢,增长了 2.7 倍。令人惊讶的是,我们研究中的穷人与假设不同,他们的经济增长仍在改善,尽管幅度很小。洪水降低了穷人积累财富的能力--9.2%,而富人则为 60.7%--尽管洪水对同一经济阶层家庭差距扩大的影响,穷人(扩大了 18 倍)远大于富人(扩大了 4.7 倍)。最后,与 "收入 "或 "支出 "相比,我们建议将 "净现金总额 "作为衡量经济变化的更佳指标,以尽量减少 COVID-19 大流行等外部影响,因为 2021 年的 COVID-19 大流行导致收入骤降而支出增加。
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来源期刊
Progress in Disaster Science
Progress in Disaster Science Social Sciences-Safety Research
CiteScore
14.60
自引率
3.20%
发文量
51
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Progress in Disaster Science is a Gold Open Access journal focusing on integrating research and policy in disaster research, and publishes original research papers and invited viewpoint articles on disaster risk reduction; response; emergency management and recovery. A key part of the Journal's Publication output will see key experts invited to assess and comment on the current trends in disaster research, as well as highlight key papers.
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