Pub Date : 2025-04-02DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100420
Alberto de la Fuente , Carolina Meruane , Viviana Meruane
Flood early warning systems often rely on a single hydro-meteorological forecast, which can limit reliability. Recent advances in deep learning (DL) offer promising improvements due to their low computational cost, enabling the generation of ensemble forecasts. This study investigates how to process multiple weather-runoff forecasts to improve model performance in predicting extreme events. We applied DL-based weather-runoff forecasting in river stations located at the foot of the Andes Mountains in Chile. The models couple a near-future global weather forecast with short-range runoff forecasting systems based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells. Meteorological and geomorphological input variables commonly used in hydrological models were selected. Training and validation used ERA5 data, while NCEP-GFS data were used for testing and real-time operation. Model performance was evaluated using the Kling-Gupta efficiency (0.6–0.8) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (greater than 0.9). The threat score index, which assesses the model's ability to predict threat peak flow exceedance, ranged between 0.6 and 0.8. The best-performing models were analyzed probabilistically to quantify uncertainty. Finally, we introduced the concept of conditional probability to estimate the likelihood of exceeding a threat peak flow, providing a basis for raising alerts and improving decision-making under uncertain conditions.
{"title":"Ensemble weather-runoff forecasting models for reliable flood early warning systems","authors":"Alberto de la Fuente , Carolina Meruane , Viviana Meruane","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100420","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100420","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Flood early warning systems often rely on a single hydro-meteorological forecast, which can limit reliability. Recent advances in deep learning (DL) offer promising improvements due to their low computational cost, enabling the generation of ensemble forecasts. This study investigates how to process multiple weather-runoff forecasts to improve model performance in predicting extreme events. We applied DL-based weather-runoff forecasting in river stations located at the foot of the Andes Mountains in Chile. The models couple a near-future global weather forecast with short-range runoff forecasting systems based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) cells. Meteorological and geomorphological input variables commonly used in hydrological models were selected. Training and validation used ERA5 data, while NCEP-GFS data were used for testing and real-time operation. Model performance was evaluated using the Kling-Gupta efficiency (0.6–0.8) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (greater than 0.9). The threat score index, which assesses the model's ability to predict threat peak flow exceedance, ranged between 0.6 and 0.8. The best-performing models were analyzed probabilistically to quantify uncertainty. Finally, we introduced the concept of conditional probability to estimate the likelihood of exceeding a threat peak flow, providing a basis for raising alerts and improving decision-making under uncertain conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100420"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791378","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100415
Se-Dong Jang, Jae-Hwan Yoo, Yeon-Su Lee, Byunghyun Kim
Urbanization has increased impervious surfaces, while climate change has intensified rainfall, leading to more frequent urban flooding. Traditional numerical models for flood prediction are accurate but time-consuming due to extensive parameter calibration and data processing. This study addresses these limitations by proposing a machine learning-based flood prediction method using a Random Forest model. By utilizing past rainfall data, 1D drainage system simulations, and 2D flood analyses, we trained the model to predict flood patterns for various rainfall events. To enhance prediction accuracy, statistical characteristics of rainfall, such as temporal distribution, were incorporated into the model. Performance metrics (RMSE, R2, MAE) for the test dataset showed values of 3.1573, 0.9682, and 0.9484 for the total rainfall model, and 2.7354, 0.9761, and 0.8942 for the model with statistical characteristics. Both models displayed high predictive accuracy relative to the numerical model, with the Random Forest model using statistical characteristics showing slightly improved performance. This method provides faster, reliable flood predictions, offering a valuable tool for real-time urban flood management and decision-making during emergency situations.
{"title":"Flood prediction in urban areas based on machine learning considering the statistical characteristics of rainfall","authors":"Se-Dong Jang, Jae-Hwan Yoo, Yeon-Su Lee, Byunghyun Kim","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100415","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100415","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Urbanization has increased impervious surfaces, while climate change has intensified rainfall, leading to more frequent urban flooding. Traditional numerical models for flood prediction are accurate but time-consuming due to extensive parameter calibration and data processing. This study addresses these limitations by proposing a machine learning-based flood prediction method using a Random Forest model. By utilizing past rainfall data, 1D drainage system simulations, and 2D flood analyses, we trained the model to predict flood patterns for various rainfall events. To enhance prediction accuracy, statistical characteristics of rainfall, such as temporal distribution, were incorporated into the model. Performance metrics (RMSE, R<sup>2</sup>, MAE) for the test dataset showed values of 3.1573, 0.9682, and 0.9484 for the total rainfall model, and 2.7354, 0.9761, and 0.8942 for the model with statistical characteristics. Both models displayed high predictive accuracy relative to the numerical model, with the Random Forest model using statistical characteristics showing slightly improved performance. This method provides faster, reliable flood predictions, offering a valuable tool for real-time urban flood management and decision-making during emergency situations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100415"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791379","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100407
C.Y. Lam , A.M. Cruz , A. Fujiwara
Medical transportation during evacuation encompasses the coordinated efforts to transport individuals with medical needs and deliver medical relief goods and personnel during emergencies. Shared mobility is a concept where available transportation resources are shared among users. This study proposes an optimization model with a shared mobility perspective for medical transportation during evacuations, addressing route efficiency, service timeframes, and resource constraints. The model focuses on delivering medical relief goods, dropping off medical personnel, and picking up medical evacuees during evacuations. It integrates a transportation network specifically designed for medical purposes, incorporating multiple demand nodes with specified time frames and penalty costs for early and late deliveries. The optimal travel route ensures that demand nodes are served within acceptable service time intervals. Travel routes are designed and updated according to demand requests from nodes to satisfy diverse demands such as delivering medical supplies, transporting personnel, and evacuating patients efficiently. This study presents a foundational approach to optimizing travel routes for medical personnel, supplies, and evacuees, which significantly enhances the efficiency of medical transportation during evacuations. The approach not only optimizes distance and cost but also ensures compliance with strict time constraints, addressing the challenge of consolidating various medical services into a single travel route. A numerical example demonstrates how this model effectively minimizes overall travel costs while incorporating a time-sensitive schedule for medical transportation.
{"title":"Optimizing travel route for medical services during evacuation: A network and shared mobility perspective","authors":"C.Y. Lam , A.M. Cruz , A. Fujiwara","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100407","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100407","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Medical transportation during evacuation encompasses the coordinated efforts to transport individuals with medical needs and deliver medical relief goods and personnel during emergencies. Shared mobility is a concept where available transportation resources are shared among users. This study proposes an optimization model with a shared mobility perspective for medical transportation during evacuations, addressing route efficiency, service timeframes, and resource constraints. The model focuses on delivering medical relief goods, dropping off medical personnel, and picking up medical evacuees during evacuations. It integrates a transportation network specifically designed for medical purposes, incorporating multiple demand nodes with specified time frames and penalty costs for early and late deliveries. The optimal travel route ensures that demand nodes are served within acceptable service time intervals. Travel routes are designed and updated according to demand requests from nodes to satisfy diverse demands such as delivering medical supplies, transporting personnel, and evacuating patients efficiently. This study presents a foundational approach to optimizing travel routes for medical personnel, supplies, and evacuees, which significantly enhances the efficiency of medical transportation during evacuations. The approach not only optimizes distance and cost but also ensures compliance with strict time constraints, addressing the challenge of consolidating various medical services into a single travel route. A numerical example demonstrates how this model effectively minimizes overall travel costs while incorporating a time-sensitive schedule for medical transportation.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100407"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143799275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100421
Ganesh Dhungana, Indrajit Pal
International agencies are an essential part of global disaster governance and played an important role in shaping global mandates such as Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). Disaster Management and Governance are multi- disciplinary and interconnected, so it is important to understand the role of international agencies in strengthening and managing them. This qualitative case study encompassed a literature review, stakeholder consultation, and key informant interviews, contextualizing 2015 Nepal earthquake in understanding the role of international agencies in the paradigm shift of disaster governance in Nepal. The findings of the study presented here have briefly discussed the engagement of international agencies in legislation formulation, institutional arrangement, and resource allocation. The study has reflected that disaster-related legislation in the country is largely influenced by international frameworks, and its implementation, which depends on technical and financial support from international agencies. The study also shows a significant knowledge gap in understanding the comprehensive disaster management approach among government officials and development professionals, reflecting a weak fundamental ground in shaping the disaster governance of the country. The study has suggested a robust framework for need assessment to ensure the support of international agencies in most required aspects of disaster governance.
{"title":"Assessing the role of international agencies in disaster governance in Nepal","authors":"Ganesh Dhungana, Indrajit Pal","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100421","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100421","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>International agencies are an essential part of global disaster governance and played an important role in shaping global mandates such as Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and the Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). Disaster Management and Governance are multi- disciplinary and interconnected, so it is important to understand the role of international agencies in strengthening and managing them. This qualitative case study encompassed a literature review, stakeholder consultation, and key informant interviews, contextualizing 2015 Nepal earthquake in understanding the role of international agencies in the paradigm shift of disaster governance in Nepal. The findings of the study presented here have briefly discussed the engagement of international agencies in legislation formulation, institutional arrangement, and resource allocation. The study has reflected that disaster-related legislation in the country is largely influenced by international frameworks, and its implementation, which depends on technical and financial support from international agencies. The study also shows a significant knowledge gap in understanding the comprehensive disaster management approach among government officials and development professionals, reflecting a weak fundamental ground in shaping the disaster governance of the country. The study has suggested a robust framework for need assessment to ensure the support of international agencies in most required aspects of disaster governance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100421"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143791380","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-04-01DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100419
Jing Zhu , Debra F. Laefer , Raul P. Lejano , Peter Gmelch , Evan O'Keeffe , Kshitij Chandna
There is increasing evidence that climate change will lead to greater and more frequent extreme weather events, thus underscoring the importance of effectively communicating risks of record storm surges in coastal communities. This article reviews why risk communication often fails to convey the nature and risk of storm surge among the public and highlights the limitations of conventional (two-dimensional) storm surge flood maps. The research explores the potential of dynamic street-level, augmented scenes to increase the tangibility of these risks and foster a greater sense of agency among the public. The study focused on Sunset Park, a coastal community in southwest Brooklyn that is vulnerable to storm surges and flooding. Two different representations of flooding corresponding to a category three hurricane scenario were prepared: (1) a conventional two-dimensional flood map (“2D” control group) and (2) a, dynamic, street view simulation (“3D” test group). The street view simulations were found to be (1) more effective in conveying the magnitude of flooding and evacuation challenges, (2) easier to use for judging flood water depth (even without a flood depth legend), (3) capable of generating stronger emotional responses, and (4) perceived as more authoritative.in nature.
{"title":"From 2D to 3D: Flood risk communication in a flood-prone neighborhood via dynamic, isometric street views","authors":"Jing Zhu , Debra F. Laefer , Raul P. Lejano , Peter Gmelch , Evan O'Keeffe , Kshitij Chandna","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100419","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100419","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>There is increasing evidence that climate change will lead to greater and more frequent extreme weather events, thus underscoring the importance of effectively communicating risks of record storm surges in coastal communities. This article reviews why risk communication often fails to convey the nature and risk of storm surge among the public and highlights the limitations of conventional (two-dimensional) storm surge flood maps. The research explores the potential of dynamic street-level, augmented scenes to increase the tangibility of these risks and foster a greater sense of agency among the public. The study focused on Sunset Park, a coastal community in southwest Brooklyn that is vulnerable to storm surges and flooding. Two different representations of flooding corresponding to a category three hurricane scenario were prepared: (1) a conventional two-dimensional flood map (“2D” control group) and (2) a, dynamic, street view simulation (“3D” test group). The street view simulations were found to be (1) more effective in conveying the magnitude of flooding and evacuation challenges, (2) easier to use for judging flood water depth (even without a flood depth legend), (3) capable of generating stronger emotional responses, and (4) perceived as more authoritative.in nature.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100419"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143817571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-07DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100418
Cherry Rose Godes , One-Bin Lim , Shanelle Aira Rodrigazo , Yongseong Kim , Yongjin Kim , Seungjoo Lee , Jaeheum Yeon
Growing climatic variability and rapid urbanization have increased landslide occurrences, posing significant challenges for risk assessment. Traditional paper-based evaluation methods, still widely used in South Korea, are time-consuming, prone to errors, and incapable of real-time analysis, limiting their effectiveness in disaster management. This study aims to address these inefficiencies by developing the Steep Slope Risk Assessment Tool (SSRAT), a digital platform designed to modernize landslide risk evaluations and improve decision-making. To achieve this, a scoping review was conducted to identify gaps in existing assessment methodologies, followed by a targeted survey of risk management professionals to understand practical challenges in the field. These insights informed the design of SSRAT, which features streamlined data entry, automated scoring, and real-time risk analysis. The tool's proof-of-concept validation through user testing demonstrated enhanced work efficiency, improved data integrity, and heightened risk awareness. The findings suggest that SSRAT has the potential to support adaptive landslide management and influence national disaster policies. Future research should extend pilot studies across diverse regions and climatic conditions to refine its functionality and facilitate broader adoption in disaster risk management practices.
{"title":"Advancing geohazard risk assessment – A digital tool for steep slope management","authors":"Cherry Rose Godes , One-Bin Lim , Shanelle Aira Rodrigazo , Yongseong Kim , Yongjin Kim , Seungjoo Lee , Jaeheum Yeon","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100418","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100418","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Growing climatic variability and rapid urbanization have increased landslide occurrences, posing significant challenges for risk assessment. Traditional paper-based evaluation methods, still widely used in South Korea, are time-consuming, prone to errors, and incapable of real-time analysis, limiting their effectiveness in disaster management. This study aims to address these inefficiencies by developing the Steep Slope Risk Assessment Tool (SSRAT), a digital platform designed to modernize landslide risk evaluations and improve decision-making. To achieve this, a scoping review was conducted to identify gaps in existing assessment methodologies, followed by a targeted survey of risk management professionals to understand practical challenges in the field. These insights informed the design of SSRAT, which features streamlined data entry, automated scoring, and real-time risk analysis. The tool's proof-of-concept validation through user testing demonstrated enhanced work efficiency, improved data integrity, and heightened risk awareness. The findings suggest that SSRAT has the potential to support adaptive landslide management and influence national disaster policies. Future research should extend pilot studies across diverse regions and climatic conditions to refine its functionality and facilitate broader adoption in disaster risk management practices.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100418"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143593089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-03DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100417
Gbenga Abayomi Afuye , John Moyo Majahana , Ahmed Mukalazi Kalumba , Leocadia Zhou , Sonwabo Perez Mazinyo
Droughts are severe climate-related disasters that significantly impact water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and communities, causing widespread damage. This review delves into the vulnerability, severity, preparedness, and response to drought disasters, focusing on water governance and policies in response to increasing water shortages. The study used documentary and content analysis to examine the existing water policy framework, based on peer-reviewed articles and government technical-based and strategic documents from water departments. South Africa's water governance and policy structures face challenges due to topographical complexities, limited land, climate change, bureaucratic hurdles, reactive government approaches, limitations in water law and policy framework documents, and persistent inequalities. These studies reveal research gaps in ecosystem-based drought adaptation and indigenous practices, emphasizing the need for inclusive knowledge generation and improved drought management coordination to address social vulnerability. The SWOT analysis reveals strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of current water governance policies, providing practical solutions for drought preparedness and sustainability. The findings reveal that South Africa's water scarcity is not solely due to climate change but also political negligence, institutional factors, and inadequate coordination of drought relief programs, indicating significant preparedness and response gaps. Accordingly, this study proposes a comprehensive model for managing drought disasters and improving water resources to mitigate water shortages and climate change impacts, advocating for a governance culture that promotes holistic and adaptive approaches to sustainable development goals (SDGs). In conclusion, two enablers of transformational governance and transformative policy approach in the water sector serve as key policy modifications for sustainable and equitable water resources management.
{"title":"Drought disasters, vulnerability, severity, preparedness and response to the water sector: A comprehensive model approach for water governance and policy in South Africa","authors":"Gbenga Abayomi Afuye , John Moyo Majahana , Ahmed Mukalazi Kalumba , Leocadia Zhou , Sonwabo Perez Mazinyo","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100417","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100417","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Droughts are severe climate-related disasters that significantly impact water resources, agriculture, ecosystems, and communities, causing widespread damage. This review delves into the vulnerability, severity, preparedness, and response to drought disasters, focusing on water governance and policies in response to increasing water shortages. The study used documentary and content analysis to examine the existing water policy framework, based on peer-reviewed articles and government technical-based and strategic documents from water departments. South Africa's water governance and policy structures face challenges due to topographical complexities, limited land, climate change, bureaucratic hurdles, reactive government approaches, limitations in water law and policy framework documents, and persistent inequalities. These studies reveal research gaps in ecosystem-based drought adaptation and indigenous practices, emphasizing the need for inclusive knowledge generation and improved drought management coordination to address social vulnerability. The SWOT analysis reveals strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of current water governance policies, providing practical solutions for drought preparedness and sustainability. The findings reveal that South Africa's water scarcity is not solely due to climate change but also political negligence, institutional factors, and inadequate coordination of drought relief programs, indicating significant preparedness and response gaps. Accordingly, this study proposes a comprehensive model for managing drought disasters and improving water resources to mitigate water shortages and climate change impacts, advocating for a governance culture that promotes holistic and adaptive approaches to sustainable development goals (SDGs). In conclusion, two enablers of transformational governance and transformative policy approach in the water sector serve as key policy modifications for sustainable and equitable water resources management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100417"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143548644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
<div><div>An in-depth understanding of diverse gender perspectives, pathways, and frameworks is pivotal for innovative and successful disaster response and resilience strategies across geographies. However, in most regions, gender perspectives in driving disaster resilience are either less operationalized, explored in research, or fragmented, creating unsustainable futures. The ramifications of these inequalities were foregrounded by the COVID-19 pandemic where the disproportionate vulnerability of individuals/genders became unavoidable. This reifies the need to create safety nets within disaster-resilient landscapes based on a gender-inclusive lens. In this study, 80 documents were systematically reviewed to explore the current and emerging gender perspectives (individual and institutional) towards disaster response and resilience mechanisms across geographies and over time. Findings highlight theoretical and conceptual deficits in the definition of gender and disaster response in the discourses. Additionally, disasters and disaster-induced impacts vary over time across genders and regions. They also reveal disproportionate disaster vulnerability among gender minorities and historically marginalized social groups. Furthermore, socioeconomic gender inequalities limit collective agency in disaster response while socio-cultural and patriarchal norms lead to uneven disaster response that are further reinforced by gender inequalities that lead to structural violence. Increased vulnerability to disasters increases fear and mistrust of existing institutional disaster management strategies. Response to Normative disaster management frameworks that entrench masculine dominance in disaster response through, emerging frameworks that draw from a critical feminist lens unfortunately feminize vulnerability and adversely limit gender-inclusive futures. It is acknowledged that place and social capital shape people's willingness to engage in disaster response across genders and regions. Therefore, collective social agency, social networks, and gender inclusion are catalytic towards the efficacy of disaster response and community resilience. Risk Communication for effective disaster response should leverage community institutions like schools, digital media platforms, and indigenous knowledge carriers to generate, mediate, and disseminate appropriate risk information. Five key strategies could drive gender-inclusive perspectives in disaster response and resilience, including (i) conducting context-based studies and research, (ii) use of novel research approaches, such as reflexive social learning, (iii) prioritizing incorporation of collective agency in policy and institutional frameworks, (iv) a research shift and focus towards uncovering the histories of vulnerability, and (v) development of transparent and feasible knowledge dissemination mechanisms. Increased participatory evidence-based research is needed, and policy frameworks must emphasize key pillars of
{"title":"Gender perspectives in disaster response: An evidence-based review","authors":"Alfred Acanga , Baker Matovu , Venugopalan Murale , Sudha Arlikatti","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100416","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100416","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>An in-depth understanding of diverse gender perspectives, pathways, and frameworks is pivotal for innovative and successful disaster response and resilience strategies across geographies. However, in most regions, gender perspectives in driving disaster resilience are either less operationalized, explored in research, or fragmented, creating unsustainable futures. The ramifications of these inequalities were foregrounded by the COVID-19 pandemic where the disproportionate vulnerability of individuals/genders became unavoidable. This reifies the need to create safety nets within disaster-resilient landscapes based on a gender-inclusive lens. In this study, 80 documents were systematically reviewed to explore the current and emerging gender perspectives (individual and institutional) towards disaster response and resilience mechanisms across geographies and over time. Findings highlight theoretical and conceptual deficits in the definition of gender and disaster response in the discourses. Additionally, disasters and disaster-induced impacts vary over time across genders and regions. They also reveal disproportionate disaster vulnerability among gender minorities and historically marginalized social groups. Furthermore, socioeconomic gender inequalities limit collective agency in disaster response while socio-cultural and patriarchal norms lead to uneven disaster response that are further reinforced by gender inequalities that lead to structural violence. Increased vulnerability to disasters increases fear and mistrust of existing institutional disaster management strategies. Response to Normative disaster management frameworks that entrench masculine dominance in disaster response through, emerging frameworks that draw from a critical feminist lens unfortunately feminize vulnerability and adversely limit gender-inclusive futures. It is acknowledged that place and social capital shape people's willingness to engage in disaster response across genders and regions. Therefore, collective social agency, social networks, and gender inclusion are catalytic towards the efficacy of disaster response and community resilience. Risk Communication for effective disaster response should leverage community institutions like schools, digital media platforms, and indigenous knowledge carriers to generate, mediate, and disseminate appropriate risk information. Five key strategies could drive gender-inclusive perspectives in disaster response and resilience, including (i) conducting context-based studies and research, (ii) use of novel research approaches, such as reflexive social learning, (iii) prioritizing incorporation of collective agency in policy and institutional frameworks, (iv) a research shift and focus towards uncovering the histories of vulnerability, and (v) development of transparent and feasible knowledge dissemination mechanisms. Increased participatory evidence-based research is needed, and policy frameworks must emphasize key pillars of ","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100416"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-03-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143578766","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-24DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100412
Zhenyu Yang , Hideomi Gokon , Ziheng Liu
Understanding the resilience of areas with different land-use types can enhance a city's ability to respond to and recover from disasters. Based on Docomo mobile GPS data and the 2018 Fukui Prefecture snow disaster, this study explores the resilience of areas with different land-use types from the grid level. First, the resilience triangle method was employed to assess the robustness, vulnerability, and survivability of different land-use types at the 500-m grid level. Second, Pearson correlation analysis and causal inference determined that snow depth is a causal factor leading to changes in grid resilience, thereby identifying the optimal time points for each grid to distinguish between disaster end and recovery start. Finally, a resilience map of Fukui Prefecture was created, integrating road data to identify cities with poor resilience and road sections prone to congestion during snow disasters. The results indicate that land-use types such as factories, agricultural land, building land, and mid-high-rise buildings have better resilience, especially mid-high-rise buildings, which exhibit strong resistance and recovery ability when facing disturbances, allowing them to return to normal states quickly. In urban planning, prioritizing such resilient building types could be beneficial. In contrast, sparse low-rise buildings, parks, facility land, and dense low-rise buildings exhibit poorer resilience and take longer to recover. Additionally, areas with poor traffic resilience in Fukui Prefecture are mainly concentrated in the northern part, particularly the vertical sections in Fukui City, Awara City, and Sakai City, as well as the vertical section from Sabae City to Echizen City and the horizontal section from Eiheiji-cho to Katsuyama City.
{"title":"Assessing regional resilience of different land use types during snowstorms using mobile data","authors":"Zhenyu Yang , Hideomi Gokon , Ziheng Liu","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100412","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100412","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Understanding the resilience of areas with different land-use types can enhance a city's ability to respond to and recover from disasters. Based on Docomo mobile GPS data and the 2018 Fukui Prefecture snow disaster, this study explores the resilience of areas with different land-use types from the grid level. First, the resilience triangle method was employed to assess the robustness, vulnerability, and survivability of different land-use types at the 500-m grid level. Second, Pearson correlation analysis and causal inference determined that snow depth is a causal factor leading to changes in grid resilience, thereby identifying the optimal time points for each grid to distinguish between disaster end and recovery start. Finally, a resilience map of Fukui Prefecture was created, integrating road data to identify cities with poor resilience and road sections prone to congestion during snow disasters. The results indicate that land-use types such as factories, agricultural land, building land, and mid-high-rise buildings have better resilience, especially mid-high-rise buildings, which exhibit strong resistance and recovery ability when facing disturbances, allowing them to return to normal states quickly. In urban planning, prioritizing such resilient building types could be beneficial. In contrast, sparse low-rise buildings, parks, facility land, and dense low-rise buildings exhibit poorer resilience and take longer to recover. Additionally, areas with poor traffic resilience in Fukui Prefecture are mainly concentrated in the northern part, particularly the vertical sections in Fukui City, Awara City, and Sakai City, as well as the vertical section from Sabae City to Echizen City and the horizontal section from Eiheiji-cho to Katsuyama City.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100412"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143511002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-02-23DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100409
Amir Shahmohammadian , Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany
The safety and resilience of buildings and housing against natural disasters, as a key urban element, are vital for sustainable development. Ensuring the safety and resilience of buildings and communities in the face of disasters is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon. This challenge not only encompasses various economic, social, engineering, and legal dimensions but also requires the collaboration of diverse stakeholders with differing interests and objectives. However, conflicts between relevant players and stakeholders can hinder progress and jeopardize the goal of building safety and resilience, ultimately threatening the sustainability of communities. The management of housing safety and resilience systems requires a deep understanding of stakeholder behavior and conflicts among them. Even when stakeholders seek mutual benefits, their actions can sometimes lead to suboptimal outcomes for all involved parties. Game theory provides an analytical framework for examining and interpreting the actions of stakeholders related to the safety and resilience of buildings and housing. It highlights how interactions among different parties, who may prioritize personal goals over broader system objectives, can influence the system's evolution and outcomes. The outcomes obtained through game theory often contrast with those proposed by optimization approaches, which typically assume that all parties are fully aligned in their commitment to achieving the best possible outcome for the system as a whole. The present study examines the application of game theory to analyze the behavior of key actors involved in the urban housing construction process, identify existing conflicts, and explore their impact on the resilience and safety of buildings in developing countries facing natural disasters. By analyzing the dynamic and complex structure of safety and resilience challenges, the study underscores the importance of considering stakeholder attitudes and the game's evolutionary trajectory in addressing these issues. Furthermore, it introduces a game between engineers and investors to demonstrate how the personal goals of involved parties can foster opportunistic behaviors that compromise the safety and resilience of buildings. Ultimately, the study argues that game theory can serve as an effective tool for understanding stakeholder behavior, addressing conflicts, and enhancing collaboration among stakeholders. This approach offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve safer and more resilient urban systems.
{"title":"Game theory applications in managing stakeholder conflicts for building safety and resilience against natural disasters","authors":"Amir Shahmohammadian , Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany","doi":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100409","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100409","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The safety and resilience of buildings and housing against natural disasters, as a key urban element, are vital for sustainable development. Ensuring the safety and resilience of buildings and communities in the face of disasters is a complex and multidimensional phenomenon. This challenge not only encompasses various economic, social, engineering, and legal dimensions but also requires the collaboration of diverse stakeholders with differing interests and objectives. However, conflicts between relevant players and stakeholders can hinder progress and jeopardize the goal of building safety and resilience, ultimately threatening the sustainability of communities. The management of housing safety and resilience systems requires a deep understanding of stakeholder behavior and conflicts among them. Even when stakeholders seek mutual benefits, their actions can sometimes lead to suboptimal outcomes for all involved parties. Game theory provides an analytical framework for examining and interpreting the actions of stakeholders related to the safety and resilience of buildings and housing. It highlights how interactions among different parties, who may prioritize personal goals over broader system objectives, can influence the system's evolution and outcomes. The outcomes obtained through game theory often contrast with those proposed by optimization approaches, which typically assume that all parties are fully aligned in their commitment to achieving the best possible outcome for the system as a whole. The present study examines the application of game theory to analyze the behavior of key actors involved in the urban housing construction process, identify existing conflicts, and explore their impact on the resilience and safety of buildings in developing countries facing natural disasters. By analyzing the dynamic and complex structure of safety and resilience challenges, the study underscores the importance of considering stakeholder attitudes and the game's evolutionary trajectory in addressing these issues. Furthermore, it introduces a game between engineers and investors to demonstrate how the personal goals of involved parties can foster opportunistic behaviors that compromise the safety and resilience of buildings. Ultimately, the study argues that game theory can serve as an effective tool for understanding stakeholder behavior, addressing conflicts, and enhancing collaboration among stakeholders. This approach offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve safer and more resilient urban systems.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":52341,"journal":{"name":"Progress in Disaster Science","volume":"26 ","pages":"Article 100409"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143510980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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