Progress in Disaster Science最新文献

Integrating forecast-based action and government-led social protection programs for flood response 将基于预测的行动与政府主导的社会保护计划结合起来，以应对洪水

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100506

Rashel Mahmud, Sonia Binte Murshed, Faisal Mahmud Sakib, Shampa, Mashfiqus Salehin

Floods are among the most pervasive natural hazards, frequently causing loss of livelihoods, population displacement, and setbacks to socio-economic development. Anticipatory approaches such as Forecast-based Action (FbA) have gained prominence for reducing disaster impacts by enabling early interventions triggered by forecast information. At the same time, many countries operate social protection (SP) systems that provide ongoing support to vulnerable groups. In Bangladesh, where recurrent riverine floods coincide with widespread poverty, both FbA and SP mechanisms exist, yet their complementarities remain underutilized. This study investigates how FbA can be linked with government-led SP programs to strengthen anticipatory flood response, using evidence from Chilmari Upazila during the 2020 flood event. A mixed-methods design was employed, combining household surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and geospatial analysis. Findings indicate that 15–17 % of FbA beneficiaries were already included in SP programs such as Old Age, Widow, and Disability Allowances, suggesting potential for rapid targeting through established lists. However, more than 90 % of affected households were not covered, revealing significant gaps in outreach. The study highlights that integrating FbA with SP offers a practical, scalable pathway to institutionalize anticipatory action and enhance resilience in flood-prone contexts.

洪水是最普遍的自然灾害之一，经常造成生计损失、人口流离失所和社会经济发展受挫。基于预测的行动（FbA）等预见性方法在减少灾害影响方面获得了突出地位，因为它使预报信息引发的早期干预成为可能。与此同时，许多国家实行社会保护制度，为弱势群体提供持续支持。在孟加拉国，经常发生的河流洪水与普遍的贫困同时发生，FbA和SP机制都存在，但它们的互补性仍未得到充分利用。本研究利用Chilmari Upazila在2020年洪水事件中的证据，探讨了如何将FbA与政府主导的SP计划联系起来，以加强预期的洪水响应。采用混合方法设计，结合入户调查、焦点小组讨论、关键信息提供者访谈和地理空间分析。调查结果表明，15 - 17%的FbA受益人已经被纳入了养老金计划，如老年、寡妇和残疾津贴，这表明有可能通过建立的名单快速锁定目标。然而，90%以上的受影响家庭没有得到覆盖，这表明在外联方面存在巨大差距。该研究强调，将FbA与SP相结合提供了一种实用的、可扩展的途径，可以将预期行动制度化，并增强洪水易发地区的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Parametric modelling for temporary housing areas: Integrating multi-source standards with multi-objective optimisation 临时住房区域的参数化建模：多源标准与多目标优化的整合

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2026.100519

Merve Deniz Tak , Mert Akay

Post-disaster planning demands swift yet quality-conscious decision-making under extreme time pressure and cognitive load, conditions under which conventional approaches frequently fail. While extensive research addresses site selection through multi-criteria decision analysis and GIS-based methods, a critical gap persists in the computational generation of internal site layouts that algorithmically integrate humanitarian spatial standards from multiple institutional sources. This study develops a generative design framework integrating parametric modelling with multi-objective evolutionary optimisation to address this gap. It translates qualitative standards from the SPHERE Association, UNHCR, and national guidelines into quantitative design parameters for temporary housing areas. The methodology proceeds in three stages: (1) systematic extraction and synthesis of spatial parameters from international (SPHERE, UNHCR) and national (AFAD, Chamber of Urban Planners) sources; (2) parametric modelling in Rhino-Grasshopper® to encode design parameters; (3) multi-objective optimisation using NSGA-II genetic algorithms to balance shelter capacity maximisation and 500-m pedestrian accessibility to service hubs. Applied to Ümraniye National Garden, a pre-designated 15-ha temporary housing site in Istanbul, the framework generated 2500 design alternatives, identifying 50 Pareto-optimal configurations spanning capacity-accessibility trade-offs from high-density solutions (1737 units, 19% accessible within 500 m) to accessibility-optimised layouts (1222 units, 92% accessible). This research contributes a replicable, standards-informed computational workflow that systematically reconciles multi-source humanitarian standards and generates site layouts through multi-objective optimisation, advancing beyond component-level optimisation and evaluation-focused approaches. By providing decision-makers with diverse Pareto-optimal alternatives rather than single predetermined solutions, the framework shifts temporary housing design from static manual drafting toward agile, evidence-based generative processes suitable for crisis decision-making contexts.

灾后规划需要在极端的时间压力和认知负荷下做出快速而有质量意识的决策，在这种情况下，传统方法经常失败。虽然广泛的研究通过多标准决策分析和基于gis的方法解决了选址问题，但在通过算法整合来自多个机构来源的人道主义空间标准的内部场地布局的计算生成方面仍然存在关键差距。本研究开发了一个生成式设计框架，将参数化建模与多目标进化优化相结合，以解决这一差距。它将SPHERE协会、难民专员办事处和国家准则的定性标准转化为临时住房区的定量设计参数。该方法分三个阶段进行：(1)系统地从国际（地球资源、难民专员办事处）和国家（AFAD、城市规划师协会）资料中提取和综合空间参数；(2)在Rhino-Grasshopper®中进行参数化建模，对设计参数进行编码；(3)利用NSGA-II遗传算法进行多目标优化，以平衡庇护所容量最大化和500米行人到服务中心的可达性。该框架应用于Ümraniye国家花园，这是伊斯坦布尔一个预先指定的15公顷的临时住宅场地，产生了2500种设计方案，确定了50种帕雷托最优配置，涵盖了高密度解决方案（1737个单元，19%在500米内可达）到可达性优化布局（1222个单元，92%可达）的容量可达性权衡。这项研究提供了一个可复制的、标准信息的计算工作流程，系统地协调多源人道主义标准，并通过多目标优化生成站点布局，超越组件级优化和以评估为中心的方法。通过为决策者提供多种帕累托最优方案，而不是单一的预定解决方案，该框架将临时住房设计从静态的手工起草转变为灵活的、基于证据的生成过程，适用于危机决策环境。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling social interest dynamics after earthquake disasters: A time-series analysis of newspaper coverage using STL decomposition and two-phase decay models 地震灾害后社会利益动态建模：基于STL分解和两阶段衰减模型的报纸报道时间序列分析

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100509

Kaito Fujie , U Hiroi , Fumihiro Sakahira

Great earthquakes attract intense media coverage and public attention, but their decay dynamics—and their variation across newspaper sections—remain underexplored. This study quantitatively examines long-term social interest following two major Japanese earthquakes: the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake. Using a 26-year newspaper corpus, we classify articles by section (e.g., local news, social news, opinion) and analyze monthly counts. We apply Seasonal-Trend decomposition using Loess (STL) to separate sustained interest from spikes (e.g., anniversaries), followed by a two-phase decay model combining an initial exponential drop-off with long-term power-law attenuation. Our results reveal clear contrasts: coverage of the Great East Japan Earthquake was broader, more sustained, and decayed more slowly—likely due to its nuclear-accident dimension. In contrast, coverage of the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake was irregular and less persistent, largely influenced by competing news events. Local and social news sections provided enduring coverage in both cases, underscoring their role in sustaining collective memory. We also identify a switching point occurring at around 40 months for the Great East Japan Earthquake—marking a shift from communicative to cultural memory—while for the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, the transition was slightly later and more irregular. This study offers a novel quantitative framework that integrates agenda-setting, the issue-attention cycle, and journalism–memory studies, clarifying how media attention forms, consolidates memory, and resets agendas. It demonstrates the media's dynamic role in constructing and preserving collective memory.

大地震吸引了大量的媒体报道和公众关注，但是它们的衰变动态以及它们在不同报纸版面上的变化仍然没有得到充分的研究。本研究定量考察了1995年阪神-浅地大地震和2011年东日本大地震后的长期社会利益。使用26年的报纸语料库，我们按部分（例如，本地新闻，社会新闻，观点）对文章进行分类，并分析每月的数量。我们使用黄土（STL）应用季节趋势分解来将持续兴趣从峰值（例如，周年纪念日）中分离出来，然后是结合初始指数下降和长期幂律衰减的两阶段衰减模型。我们的研究结果显示了明显的对比：东日本大地震的报道范围更广，持续时间更长，衰减速度更慢——可能是由于其核事故维度。相比之下，对阪神-淡路地震的报道是不规则的，也不那么持续，很大程度上受到相互竞争的新闻事件的影响。地方和社会新闻板块对这两种情况都提供了持久的报道，强调了它们在维持集体记忆方面的作用。我们还发现，东日本大地震大约在40个月左右出现了一个转换点，标志着从交流到文化记忆的转变，而阪神-浅地地震的转变稍微晚一些，也更不规则。本研究提供了一个新的定量框架，整合了议程设置、问题-关注周期和新闻-记忆研究，阐明了媒体关注如何形成、巩固记忆和重置议程。它展示了媒介在建构和保存集体记忆中的动态作用。

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引用次数: 0

Military involvement in disaster management: Bibliometric insights into central–peripheral dynamics and historical crises 军事介入灾害管理：文献计量学洞察中心-外围动态和历史危机

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100511

Hasan Ogredik

While the disaster management literature includes substantial research on the utilisation of military resources, existing studies are mostly fragmented, event-specific, or confined to thematic niches. This article, therefore, aims to (i) provide a comprehensive bibliometric mapping of scholarly work on military involvement in disaster management, and (ii) identify underexplored domains and trajectories that warrant further academic attention. A bibliometric analysis was conducted on publications indexed in the Web of Science (1991–2025). Using VOSviewer, co-authorship, citation, and keyword networks were mapped. In addition, an AI-assisted natural language processing (NLP) clustering method was applied to categorise publications into thematic domains. Manual validation was undertaken to ensure reliability. The analysis reveals that disaster management research is dominated by a few Western countries, with limited collaboration and modest military input, shifting focus from health to securitised frameworks, while gaps remain in AI, disaster diplomacy, socio-cultural aspects, and the religion–disaster management nexus. By synthesising the literature bibliometrically, this study clarifies the field's evolution and situates it within ethical, historical, and political debates, offering a conceptual reference for academics and practical, context-sensitive insights on the interactions of central and peripheral dynamics in the use of military capabilities during disaster settings.

虽然灾害管理文献包括关于军事资源利用的大量研究，但现有的研究大多是零散的、针对具体事件的或局限于专题领域。因此，本文旨在(i)提供关于军事参与灾害管理的学术工作的综合文献计量图，以及（ii）确定值得进一步学术关注的未充分探索的领域和轨迹。对1991-2025年在Web of Science收录的出版物进行了文献计量分析。使用VOSviewer，我们绘制了合作作者、引文和关键词网络。此外，应用人工智能辅助的自然语言处理（NLP）聚类方法将出版物分类到主题领域。进行了人工验证以确保可靠性。分析显示，灾害管理研究由少数西方国家主导，合作有限，军事投入有限，将重点从卫生转移到证券化框架，而在人工智能、灾害外交、社会文化方面以及宗教与灾害管理关系方面仍然存在差距。通过综合文献计量学，本研究澄清了该领域的演变，并将其置于伦理、历史和政治辩论中，为学者提供了概念参考，并为灾害环境中使用军事能力的中心和外围动态的相互作用提供了实用的、上下文敏感的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Towards cyclone resilience: Examining local challenges and best practices in shelter management in Sarankhola, Southwest Bangladesh 迈向飓风复原力：审视孟加拉国西南部Sarankhola避难所管理的当地挑战和最佳做法

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100510

Ishrar Tahmin Anika , Edris Alam

Bangladesh is the seventh most vulnerable country to climate-related hazards and is highly susceptible to intense cyclones. This study aims to identify shelter management challenges, existing practices, and resident-driven recommendations in four unions of Sarankhola, southwest Bangladesh, while also developing a perceived cyclone risk map. Using a mixed-methods approach, data was collected through twenty-four in-depth interviews (IDIs), 8 focus group discussions (FGDs), and 104 questionnaire surveys, with respondents equally distributed across the unions. Findings indicate that residents lack access to essential services, with limited facilities for pregnant women, lactating mothers, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities. Although most cyclone shelters have ramps, the absence of specialized vehicles prevents volunteers from assisting people with disabilities effectively. Poor sanitation and hygiene conditions expose evacuees to health risks. While shelters are structurally safe from floods, the risk of building collapse persists due to neglected renovations. Despite the increased availability of cyclone shelters, poor road infrastructure and fear of theft hinder timely evacuation. Some residents also reported access restrictions imposed by school authorities managing the shelters. The study highlights that good governance can enhance shelter management by ensuring proper water supply, sanitation, and equitable relief distribution. Key recommendations include improving roads and drainage, ensuring nutrition-sensitive relief, engaging female volunteers, enhancing healthcare and accessibility support, and strengthening accountability for shelter maintenance. Effective management requires a coordinated, inclusive, governance-driven approach to sustain cyclone resilience.

孟加拉国是第七大易受气候相关灾害影响的国家，极易受到强烈气旋的影响。本研究旨在确定孟加拉国西南部Sarankhola的四个联盟的避难所管理挑战、现有做法和居民驱动的建议，同时还开发了一个感知气旋风险地图。采用混合方法，通过24次深度访谈（IDIs）、8次焦点小组讨论（fgd）和104份问卷调查收集数据，受访者平均分布在各个工会。调查结果表明，居民缺乏基本服务，为孕妇、哺乳期母亲、儿童、老人和残疾人提供的设施有限。虽然大多数飓风避难所都有坡道，但由于缺乏专用车辆，志愿者无法有效地帮助残疾人。恶劣的环境卫生和个人卫生条件使撤离人员面临健康风险。虽然避难所在结构上不受洪水影响，但由于忽视翻修，建筑物倒塌的风险仍然存在。尽管飓风庇护所的可用性有所增加，但道路基础设施薄弱和对盗窃的恐惧阻碍了及时疏散。一些居民还报告说，管理避难所的学校当局对出入施加了限制。该研究强调，良好的治理可以通过确保适当的供水、卫生和公平的救济分配来加强住房管理。主要建议包括改善道路和排水，确保营养敏感的救济，吸引女性志愿者，加强医疗保健和无障碍支持，以及加强对住房维护的问责制。有效的管理需要一种协调、包容、治理驱动的方法来维持气旋抵御力。

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引用次数: 0

Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment based on supervised learning considering nonstationary sea-level rise and multiple source rupture: Application to Denpasar City of Bali 考虑非平稳海平面上升和多震源破裂的基于监督学习的概率海啸风险评估：在巴厘岛登巴萨市的应用

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100505

Willy Cahyadhiputra Gunawan , Abdul Kadir Alhamid , Mitsuyoshi Akiyama , Muhamad Farhan Permana , Mohammad Farid , Alamsyah Kurniawan , Mohammad Bagus Adityawan

Tsunami is among most devastating natural disasters, posing major threats to coastal communities. In Indonesia, with its extensive megathrust zone, a key challenge is capturing the uncertainties of fault rupture location earthquake magnitudes. Sea-level rise further complicates this by increasing inundation depth and altering inundation patterns across rupture scenarios. This study aims to perform probabilistic tsunami risk assessments of economic loss based on supervised learning considering multiple source ruptures and sea-level rise effects. Historical earthquake and sea-level rise data are collected, and the fault rupture parameters are derived using scaling relationships. Tsunami propagation analyses are conducted based on several combinations of earthquake magnitude and sea-level rise. A Gaussian Process Regression surrogate model is employed to capture the relationship between inundation depth, magnitude, and sea-level rise. The tsunami hazard curve is estimated based on the magnitude and sea-level rise uncertainties using Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, tsunami risk is evaluated by convolving the tsunami hazard curve with the fragility curve of the exposed structures and their corresponding unit loss. The framework enables rapid risk assessment considering multiple source ruptures. Results indicate that the risk amplification due to sea-level rise is strongly influenced by rupture location and tsunami intensity.

海啸是最具破坏性的自然灾害之一，对沿海社区构成重大威胁。在印度尼西亚，由于其巨大的逆冲带，一个关键的挑战是捕捉断层破裂位置地震震级的不确定性。海平面上升增加了淹没深度，改变了破裂情景下的淹没模式，使情况进一步复杂化。本研究基于监督学习，考虑多震源破裂和海平面上升效应，对经济损失进行概率海啸风险评估。收集历史地震和海平面上升数据，利用尺度关系推导断层破裂参数。海啸传播分析是基于地震震级和海平面上升的几种组合进行的。采用高斯过程回归替代模型捕捉淹没深度、震级和海平面上升之间的关系。利用蒙特卡罗模拟，根据震级和海平面上升的不确定性，估算了海啸危害曲线。最后，通过将海啸危害曲线与暴露结构的易损性曲线及其相应的单位损失进行卷积来评估海啸风险。该框架允许考虑多个源破裂的快速风险评估。结果表明，断裂位置和海啸强度对海平面上升的风险放大有强烈影响。

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引用次数: 0

Warning cultures in practice: Shadow systems in local flood risk governance 实践中的预警文化：地方洪水风险治理中的影子系统

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100513

Jeff Da Costa , Hannah L. Cloke , Jessica Neumann , Nathan Salvidge

Early warning reduces flood risk when forecasts are interpreted and converted into timely local action. In Luxembourg, a nationally centralised system, with no intermediate tier, places the next line of decision making immediately with municipalities. This paper examines how a structured shadow system emerges at the local scale to bridge gaps between national alerts and operational needs. Evidence is drawn from a focus group with municipal officials in a flood-affected community, including a flood-scenario exercise simulating an evolving rainfall event to examine decision-making under uncertainty. Thematic analysis shows that national flood alerts are generic, repetitive, and weakly linked to municipal thresholds for initiating preparedness measures. Ambiguous terminology, colour codes, and broad spatial and temporal framing limit their operational usefulness for local response. Frequent low-level alerts contribute to warning fatigue and erode trust. Officials construct meaning through institutional knowledge, lived experience, peer exchange, and heuristics. These locally embedded practices highlight the importance of scale, showing how municipal knowledge both localises and at times overrides national messages. The configuration strengthens local responsiveness but concentrates interpretive responsibility at municipal level without formal support, which can increase variability across jurisdictions. The analysis points to a need for impact-based, temporally precise, municipality-scale products with clear triggers and guidance co-developed with local officials and potentially residents, so that centrally issued forecasts can be converted into anticipatory action at the local level.

当预报被解释并转化为及时的当地行动时，早期预警可以减少洪水风险。在卢森堡，一个没有中间层的国家中央系统，将下一层决策直接交给市政当局。本文研究了一个结构化的影子系统如何在地方范围内出现，以弥合国家警报和业务需求之间的差距。证据来自与受洪水影响社区的市政官员的焦点小组，包括模拟不断变化的降雨事件的洪水情景演习，以检查不确定性下的决策。专题分析表明，国家洪水警报是通用的、重复的，与城市启动备灾措施的阈值联系较弱。模棱两可的术语、颜色代码和广泛的空间和时间框架限制了它们对局部响应的操作有用性。频繁的低级警报会导致警告疲劳，并侵蚀信任。官员们通过制度知识、生活经验、同行交流和启发来构建意义。这些根植于当地的实践突出了规模的重要性，显示了市政知识如何本地化，有时甚至超越了国家信息。这种结构加强了地方的响应能力，但在没有正式支持的情况下，将解释责任集中在市政一级，这可能增加司法管辖区之间的差异。分析指出，需要基于影响的、时间上精确的、市级规模的产品，这些产品具有明确的触发因素和指导，并与地方官员和潜在居民共同开发，以便将中央发布的预测转化为地方一级的预期行动。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluation of open-source SAR-based flood datasets for flood extent mapping in emergency settings 评估基于开源sar的洪水数据集，用于紧急情况下的洪水范围制图

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100507

Ira Karrel San Jose , Sesa Wiguna , Ryohei Kametaka , Bruno Adriano , Erick Mas , Shunichi Koshimura

The increasing frequency and severity of flood events, exacerbated by climate change, continue to threaten vulnerable communities worldwide, particularly in low-lying and coastal regions. Timely and accurate flood extent mapping is critical for supporting decision-making and resource allocation during disaster response operations. Advances in machine learning (ML) models, such as deep learning (DL), and the growing availability of Earth observation (EO) data have made automated inundation mapping more viable. However, the reliability of these models is highly dependent on the quality, diversity, and representativeness of the training datasets. Therefore, this study investigates several remote sensing flood datasets, both optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR), to assess their applicability in emergency response settings. Based on the initial assessment and advantages of using SAR imagery in flood detection, the study evaluates five publicly available Sentinel-1 flood datasets using a DL segmentation model to determine their suitability for emergency response scenarios. Datasets with multi-temporal inputs and high-quality labels achieved superior F1 scores ranging from 0.844 to 0.959. To assess their ability to support emergency operations, the trained models were further tested on three independent flood disasters. While the datasets performed well on their test samples, their predictive accuracy declined substantially when applied to these new flood events, highlighting limitations in current dataset generalizability. The results emphasize that while segmentation models can achieve high accuracy in familiar sites, real-world applications require datasets that capture the heterogeneity of flood scenarios across different regions and conditions. An improved flood dataset design, incorporating multi-temporal and coherence data, a standardized preprocessing framework, and a broader flood geographic distribution, is significant in building reproducible and robust flood detection models.

气候变化加剧了洪水事件的日益频繁和严重程度，继续威胁着世界各地的脆弱社区，特别是在低洼地区和沿海地区。及时、准确的洪水范围测绘对于支持灾害应对行动中的决策和资源分配至关重要。深度学习（DL）等机器学习（ML）模型的进步，以及地球观测（EO）数据的日益可用性，使得自动绘制洪水地图变得更加可行。然而，这些模型的可靠性高度依赖于训练数据集的质量、多样性和代表性。因此，本研究调查了几种遥感洪水数据集，包括光学和合成孔径雷达（SAR），以评估它们在应急响应设置中的适用性。基于初步评估和在洪水检测中使用SAR图像的优势，该研究使用DL分割模型评估了五个公开可用的Sentinel-1洪水数据集，以确定它们对应急响应场景的适用性。具有多时间输入和高质量标签的数据集获得了更好的F1得分，范围为0.844 ~ 0.959。为了评估它们支持紧急行动的能力，在三个独立的洪水灾害中进一步测试了训练好的模型。虽然数据集在测试样本上表现良好，但当应用于这些新的洪水事件时，它们的预测精度大幅下降，突出了当前数据集泛化的局限性。研究结果强调，虽然分割模型可以在熟悉的地点实现高精度，但现实世界的应用需要能够捕捉不同地区和条件下洪水情景异质性的数据集。改进的洪水数据集设计，包括多时相和相干数据、标准化的预处理框架和更广泛的洪水地理分布，对于建立可复制和鲁棒的洪水探测模型具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

How arts and cultural activities can reduce disaster risk and improve recovery outcomes: An interdisciplinary scoping review with thematic synthesis 艺术和文化活动如何减少灾害风险和改善恢复成果：专题综合的跨学科范围审查

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100501

Claire Hooker , Anna Kennedy-Borissow , Natasha Beaumont , Isabelle Galet-Lalande

Arts and cultural activities are important and increasing components of disaster recovery and resilience programs worldwide. But to date there has been little formal research about these activities and there is little evidence to inform best practice, implementation or impact assessment. This review of published research of arts participation and disaster risk reduction addresses this gap. The characteristics of this heterogenous field are presented, and three dominant themes, six content themes, and one epistemic theme are identified. Results show that arts participation programs can powerfully contribute to community wellbeing in disaster contexts, catalyse improvements in disaster education and disaster preparedness, and support communities to make sense of disaster experiences, to imagine alternative futures, and to reconfigure identity in connection to place. Through thematic synthesis, four models are presented to explain core processes and dimensions evident in arts participation programs within disaster contexts across multiple studies. These models could be applied to improve program efficacy in meeting disaster risk reduction goals. This review also demonstrates the urgent need for more rigorous research in this field, especially studies that produce evidence to inform planning, implementing and assessing the impact of arts and cultural activities.

艺术和文化活动是世界范围内灾难恢复和恢复计划的重要组成部分。但迄今为止，关于这些活动的正式研究很少，也没有什么证据可以为最佳实践、实施或影响评估提供信息。本文对已发表的艺术参与和减少灾害风险的研究进行了回顾，解决了这一差距。提出了这一异质领域的特征，并确定了三个主导主题，六个内容主题和一个认知主题。结果表明，艺术参与项目可以有力地促进灾害背景下的社区福祉，促进灾害教育和备灾工作的改善，并支持社区理解灾害经历，想象不同的未来，并重新配置与地点相关的身份。通过主题综合，提出了四个模型来解释在多个研究中灾害背景下艺术参与计划中明显的核心过程和维度。这些模型可用于提高项目效率，以实现减少灾害风险的目标。这篇综述还表明，迫切需要在这一领域进行更严格的研究，特别是那些为艺术和文化活动的规划、实施和评估影响提供证据的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Displacement due to riverbank Erosion: A threat to education in Bangladesh 河岸侵蚀造成的流离失所：对孟加拉国教育的威胁

IF 3.8 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Progress in Disaster Science

Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.pdisas.2025.100514

Sanjoy Kumar Saha , Mehedi Hasan , Mohammad Bin Amin , Zoltán Bács

Riverbank erosion is a recurrent natural hazard in Bangladesh that causes large-scale displacement and poses a serious threat to human capital formation, particularly education. This study investigates the impact of erosion-induced displacement on schooling outcomes in erosion-prone communities along the Jamuna River using a mixed-methods approach. Distinct from existing studies that primarily emphasize income and livelihood losses, this research explicitly links environmental displacement to educational vulnerability. The quantitative findings reveal that 38–42 % of displaced children experienced temporary or permanent school dropout, compared to 18–21 % among non-displaced households. On average, displaced children lost 1.2–1.5 years of schooling, and school attendance declined by nearly 25 % immediately after displacement. Econometric results indicate that displacement significantly reduces years of schooling and attendance even after controlling for household income, parental education, and access to basic services. More frequent displacement further worsens educational outcomes and increases child labor, while early marriage substantially reduces female educational attainment. Larger household size and income instability also constrain educational investment. Qualitative evidence identifies housing loss, repeated relocation, increased child labor, and greater distance to schools as key transmission channels. The findings highlight the importance of integrated disaster management, planned resettlement, and education-continuity policies in erosion-prone and deltaic regions.

河岸侵蚀是孟加拉国经常发生的自然灾害，造成大规模流离失所，并对人力资本形成，特别是教育构成严重威胁。本研究采用混合方法调查了贾穆纳河沿岸易受侵蚀社区因侵蚀导致的流离失所对学校教育结果的影响。与主要强调收入和生计损失的现有研究不同，本研究明确地将环境流离失所与教育脆弱性联系起来。定量调查结果显示，38 - 42%的流离失所儿童暂时或永久辍学，而非流离失所家庭的这一比例为18 - 21%。流离失所儿童平均失去1.2至1.5年的学校教育，在流离失所后，入学率立即下降了近25%。计量经济学结果表明，即使在控制了家庭收入、父母教育和获得基本服务的机会之后，流离失所也显著减少了受教育年限和出勤率。更频繁的流离失所进一步恶化了教育成果，增加了童工，而早婚大大降低了女性的受教育程度。家庭规模扩大和收入不稳定也限制了教育投资。定性证据表明，住房损失、反复搬迁、童工增加以及距离学校更远是主要的传播渠道。研究结果强调了综合灾害管理、有计划的重新安置和教育连续性政策在易受侵蚀地区和三角洲地区的重要性。

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