Interval-specific likelihood ratios and probability-based models for interpreting combined CSF biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease

Abstract

Background

In Alzheimer’s disease (AD) diagnosis, a cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker panel is commonly interpreted with binary cutoff values. However, these values are not generic and do not reflect the disease continuum. We explored the use of interval-specific likelihood ratios (LRs) and probability-based models for AD using a CSF biomarker panel.

Methods

CSF biomarker (Aβ_1-42, tTau and pTau₁₈₁) data for both a clinical discovery cohort of 241 patients (measured with INNOTEST) and a clinical validation cohort of 129 patients (measured with EUROIMMUN), both including AD and non-AD dementia/cognitive complaints were retrospectively retrieved in a single-center study. Interval-specific LRs for AD were calculated and validated for univariate and combined (Aβ_1-42/tTau and pTau₁₈₁) biomarkers, and a continuous bivariate probability-based model for AD, plotting Aβ_1-42/tTau versus pTau₁₈₁ was constructed and validated.

Results

LR for AD increased as individual CSF biomarker values deviated from normal. Interval-specific LRs of a combined biomarker model showed that once one biomarker became abnormal, LRs increased even further when another biomarker largely deviated from normal, as replicated in the validation cohort. A bivariate probability-based model predicted AD with a validated accuracy of 88% on a continuous scale.

Conclusions

Interval-specific LRs in a combined biomarker model and prediction of AD using a continuous bivariate biomarker probability-based model, offer a more meaningful interpretation of CSF AD biomarkers on a (semi-)continuous scale with respect to the post-test probability of AD across different assays and cohorts.