From 30- to 5-minute settlement rule in the NEM: An early evaluation

IF 9.3 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Energy Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-26 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114305
Muthe Mathias Mwampashi , Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos , Alan Rai
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Abstract

Australia’s National Electricity Market has shifted from 30- to 5-minute settlement (5MS)— a major regulatory reform since its inception. Using a Bayesian structural time-series model over the period 1 October 2021 to 31 May 2022, we demonstrate that despite having no immediate impact on price dynamics, 5MS eventually exerts upward pressure on spot prices over time. Price volatility remains essentially unchanged. Moreover, dispatch-weighted prices (DWPs) for flexible battery generators increase. DWPs for aggregated gas generators barely change, while DWPs for incumbent black coal-fired generators unexpectedly increase. These findings support the notion that the market is gradually adapting to 5MS. For a more effective adaptation, energy policies must be in place to lower entry barriers for flexible, dispatchable generation capacity and reduce market concentrations.

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从 30 分钟到 5 分钟的 NEM 结算规则:早期评估
澳大利亚全国电力市场已从 30 分钟结算转为 5 分钟结算 (5MS)--这是该市场成立以来的一项重大监管改革。利用 2021 年 10 月 1 日至 2022 年 5 月 31 日期间的贝叶斯结构时间序列模型,我们证明,尽管 5MS 对价格动态没有直接影响,但随着时间的推移,最终会对现货价格产生上涨压力。价格波动基本保持不变。此外,灵活电池发电机的调度加权价格(DWPs)也会上升。综合燃气发电机组的调度加权价格几乎没有变化,而现有黑色燃煤发电机组的调度加权价格却意外上涨。这些发现支持了市场正在逐步适应 5MS 的观点。为实现更有效的适应,能源政策必须到位,以降低灵活、可调度发电能力的进入门槛,并减少市场集中度。
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来源期刊
Energy Policy
Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学
CiteScore
17.30
自引率
5.60%
发文量
540
审稿时长
7.9 months
期刊介绍: Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.
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