Energy Policy最新文献

Research on the participation behavior of renewable energy in China's sustainable development price settlement mechanism: An agent-based simulation analysis 中国可持续发展价格结算机制中可再生能源参与行为研究：基于agent的模拟分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115042

Jian Han , Ying Zhou , Yuyan Weng , Junling Huang

China's sustainable development pricing settlement mechanism provides a risk-hedging tool for renewable energy market entry. However, this mechanism excludes benefits from other medium and long-term contracts and green certificates. This will create issues regarding the choice of how renewable energy enters the market. Therefore, analysis the effect of mechanism volume and price to the market participation behavior and the benefit of renewable energy is key to policy refinement. To this end, this paper constructs an agent-based multi-strategy evolutionary game model to examine the strategic evolutionary trends of renewable energy entities under varying mechanism scale constraints. The study also investigates their impacts on entity revenues and the scale of mechanism electricity subsidies. Analytical results reveal that: sufficient mechanism electricity safeguards renewable energy revenues but may escalate subsidy pressure incrementally each year; while reducing mechanism electricity alleviate subsidy pressure, they also lower contract prices for successful bidders, making the exit mechanism or high bidding strategy a more appealing choice for renewables. The study recommends that to boost the growth of renewable energy capacity, sufficient mechanism-based electricity volume should be guaranteed. As renewable energy expands in the future, efforts should be made to gradually reducing mechanism electricity in the future. Policymakers should optimize the formation mechanism for local mechanism electricity price cap and floors to align with electricity market signals, thereby ensuring the basic returns and orderly development of renewable energy.

中国可持续发展定价结算机制为可再生能源市场准入提供了风险对冲工具。但是，该机制不包括其他中长期合同和绿色证书的利益。这将产生关于选择可再生能源如何进入市场的问题。因此，分析机制量价对可再生能源市场参与行为和效益的影响是政策细化的关键。为此，本文构建了基于智能体的多策略演化博弈模型，考察了不同机制规模约束下可再生能源主体的战略演化趋势。研究还考察了它们对实体收入和机制电价补贴规模的影响。分析结果表明：充足的机制电力保障了可再生能源的收入，但可能使补贴压力逐年递增；减少机制电在缓解补贴压力的同时，也降低了中标者的合同价格，使退出机制或高竞价策略成为可再生能源更有吸引力的选择。该研究建议，为了促进可再生能源容量的增长，应该保证足够的基于机制的发电量。随着未来可再生能源的扩大，未来应努力逐步减少机制电。政策制定者应优化地方机制电价上限和下限的形成机制，与电力市场信号保持一致，确保可再生能源的基本回报和有序发展。

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引用次数: 0

Monetary policy shocks and day-ahead electricity markets: Insights from a “bizarre policy experiment” 货币政策冲击与未来电力市场：来自“离奇政策实验”的见解

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115036

Selahattin Murat Sirin , Dilek Uz

A well-functioning electricity market is fundamental to achieving economic efficiency and advancing the clean energy transition. However, inconsistent and poorly planned monetary policies can disrupt energy markets, distorting market signals, and introducing risks that hinder efficient operations. While the existing literature predominantly focuses on fossil fuel markets, this paper shifts the focus to electricity markets, which play a central role in the energy transition. Leveraging a unique monetary policy experiment, characterized by unorthodox policy decisions and the unusual and arbitrary preterm dismissals of central bank governors, this study examines the short-term effects of monetary policy shocks on day-ahead electricity markets in the context of a developing country. The findings reveal asymmetric impacts of monetary policy shocks on firms’ market behavior, with notable heterogeneity in responses. These dynamics pose additional challenges for electricity market operations and achieving emission reduction targets.

一个运转良好的电力市场是实现经济效益和推进清洁能源转型的基础。然而，不一致和计划不周的货币政策可能会扰乱能源市场，扭曲市场信号，并引入阻碍有效运营的风险。虽然现有文献主要关注化石燃料市场，但本文将重点转移到电力市场，电力市场在能源转型中起着核心作用。本研究利用一项独特的货币政策实验，以非正统的政策决定和央行行长不寻常的任意提前解职为特征，考察了发展中国家背景下货币政策冲击对日前电力市场的短期影响。研究结果表明，货币政策冲击对企业市场行为的影响是不对称的，其反应具有显著的异质性。这些动态给电力市场运作和实现减排目标带来了额外的挑战。

引用次数: 0

Time-varying systemic risk in electricity markets using generative adversarial networks: Market resilience and policy 使用生成对抗网络的电力市场时变系统风险：市场弹性和政策

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115034

Santiago Bohórquez Correa , Stephanía Mosquera-López , Jorge M. Uribe

Current frameworks and policy instruments for monitoring and regulating European electricity markets fall short of fully addressing the complexities that arise during periods of market distress. Our study makes two key contributions in this area: First, it provides a novel, integrative analysis of systemic risk across 25 energy markets, encompassing oil, natural gas, and coal, as well as 21 European electricity markets. Second, it introduces Time Series Generative Adversarial Networks to systemic risk literature, enabling real-time tracking of market resilience. Our findings show that systemic distress in European electricity markets was higher in Q3 2021 than in late 2021 and early 2022, despite record-high electricity prices in the latter period, which many assumed reflected maximum market distress. This suggests that policy interventions enacted at the end of 2021 effectively reduced systemic distress in European electricity markets. However, fossil fuel markets reached a peak in risk during the first quarter of 2022, underscoring energy security concerns for Europe due to its reliance on foreign fuel sources, as prices are set in a global rather than regional context. Our modeling framework offers a tool to assess such risks in real time, providing valuable insights for proactive policymaking in the European energy sector.

目前监测和监管欧洲电力市场的框架和政策工具未能充分解决市场困境期间出现的复杂性。我们的研究在这一领域做出了两个关键贡献：首先，它对25个能源市场（包括石油、天然气和煤炭）以及21个欧洲电力市场的系统性风险进行了新颖的综合分析。其次，它将时间序列生成对抗网络引入系统风险文献，实现市场弹性的实时跟踪。我们的研究结果显示，2021年第三季度欧洲电力市场的系统性困境高于2021年末和2022年初，尽管后者的电价创下历史新高，许多人认为这反映了最大的市场困境。这表明，2021年底实施的政策干预有效地减少了欧洲电力市场的系统性困境。然而，化石燃料市场在2022年第一季度达到了风险峰值，这凸显了欧洲对能源安全的担忧，因为欧洲对外国燃料来源的依赖，因为价格是在全球而不是地区背景下确定的。我们的建模框架提供了一种实时评估此类风险的工具，为欧洲能源部门的前瞻性政策制定提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Ethanol vs. gasoline: conventional policies and the slow uptake 乙醇与汽油：传统政策和缓慢接受

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115009

Magda Fontana , Laura Soares , André Suriane

Despite significant government interventions over the past five decades in Brazil, the adoption of ethanol as an alternative to gasoline remains well below the expected level. We utilise a novel dataset that covers all municipalities with operational gas stations, including data on ethanol and gasoline consumption, prices, socio-demographics, and state characteristics, to assess the impact of economic, demographic, and local factors (in the period 2020/9–2021/12), and to investigate the factors influencing fuel choice and the likely existence of barriers to ethanol adoption. Results indicate that non-economic factors, including education and age, influence ethanol adoption. State-level fiscal policies and economic vocations, such as sugarcane and oil production, also influence adoption. We argue that policies should go beyond traditional economic incentives and, instead, take a more comprehensive approach that addresses local conditions and promotes pro-social behaviours. In this vein, we propose several policy interventions inspired by behavioral economics to increase adoption, particularly among wealthier, younger, and less-educated citizens. Ultimately, the study recommends further research into the social and cognitive factors that influence fuel choice and the effectiveness of policy.

尽管巴西政府在过去的五十年里进行了大量的干预，但乙醇作为汽油替代品的采用率仍远低于预期水平。我们使用了一个新的数据集，该数据集涵盖了所有有运营加油站的城市，包括乙醇和汽油消费、价格、社会人口统计和州特征的数据，以评估经济、人口和当地因素（2020/9-2021/12期间）的影响，并调查影响燃料选择的因素以及可能存在的乙醇采用障碍。结果表明，非经济因素，包括教育和年龄，影响乙醇的采用。国家一级的财政政策和经济行业，如甘蔗和石油生产，也会影响收养。我们认为，政策应该超越传统的经济激励，而是采取更全面的方法，解决当地的情况，促进亲社会行为。在这种情况下，我们提出了几项受行为经济学启发的政策干预措施，以提高收养率，特别是在富裕、年轻和受教育程度较低的公民中。最后，该研究建议进一步研究影响燃料选择和政策有效性的社会和认知因素。

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引用次数: 0

Tariffs and the transition: A study on the effects of global trade on energy mix diversification 关税与转型：全球贸易对能源结构多样化影响的研究

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115003

Gonzalo H. Soto , Manuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate , Ojonugwa Usman

This empirical investigation explores the relationship between international trade and the composition of the energy mix, encompassing nuclear, renewable, and fossil fuel energy sources. We propound four novel hypotheses: commercial dependence, asymmetric transition, tariff the transition, and tariff the externalities, which aims to provide better insights of the dynamics at play within the green transition. Our econometric analysis reveals that tariffs exert a heterogeneous impact on the energy mix, contingent upon a country's income level and the specific characteristics of the energy source. Notably, economic openness does not necessarily catalyze energy diversification, and a pronounced reliance on fossil fuels persists. Furthermore, the nature of trade balances, dichotomized into high and low value-added components, exhibits asymmetric patterns of energy mix adoption. We yield policy recommendations aimed at promoting sustainability in commerce, underscoring the relevance of trade policies tailored to the needs of countries with varying income levels and trade profiles.

这项实证调查探讨了国际贸易与能源结构构成之间的关系，包括核能、可再生能源和化石燃料能源。我们提出了四个新的假设：商业依赖、不对称转型、关税转型和关税外部性，旨在更好地了解绿色转型中的动态。我们的计量经济学分析表明，关税对能源结构的影响是异质性的，这取决于一个国家的收入水平和能源的具体特征。值得注意的是，经济开放并不一定促进能源多样化，对化石燃料的明显依赖仍然存在。此外，贸易平衡的性质，分为高附加值和低附加值的组成部分，表现出能源结构采用的不对称模式。我们提出旨在促进商业可持续性的政策建议，强调根据不同收入水平和贸易状况的国家需要制定相应的贸易政策。

引用次数: 0

How many zones should an electricity market have? A cross-country perspective on bidding zone design 电力市场应该有多少个区域？竞标区设计的跨国视角

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115030

Marta Moretto , Michael G. Pollitt

The configuration of bidding zones has become a central issue in the ongoing debate on electricity market design. This paper critically analyses the effectiveness and limitations of zonal pricing through a comparative analysis of Italy, Norway, Sweden and Australia-with zonal systems-and of Texas and California, which moved from zonal to nodal regimes. We analyze the institutional, technical and socio-economic factors that shape these divergent trajectories, highlighting how national authority in the European context and energy system characteristics influence market structure. In zonal markets, locational pricing applies on the supply side, while demand-side application varies. By examining zoning processes and price convergence, we identify both shared patterns and context-specific dynamics. While zonal pricing can enhance transparency and investment signals, its effectiveness depends on periodic bidding zones reviews. The findings support a flexible approach to bidding zone design, aligned with the objectives of decarbonization, market integration, and system reliability.

竞价区配置已成为当前电力市场设计争论的核心问题。本文通过对意大利、挪威、瑞典和澳大利亚（采用分区定价制度）以及从分区定价制度转向节点定价制度的德克萨斯州和加利福尼亚州的比较分析，批判性地分析了分区定价的有效性和局限性。我们分析了形成这些不同轨迹的制度、技术和社会经济因素，强调了欧洲背景下的国家权威和能源系统特征如何影响市场结构。在区域市场中，供应方面适用于地点定价，而需求方面的应用则各不相同。通过检查分区过程和价格趋同，我们确定了共享模式和特定环境的动态。虽然区域定价可以提高透明度和投资信号，但其有效性取决于定期的投标区域审查。研究结果支持灵活的投标区设计方法，与脱碳、市场整合和系统可靠性的目标保持一致。

引用次数: 0

A multi-criteria analysis framework for hydrogen carrier evaluation in large-scale intercontinental hydrogen exports 大型洲际氢气出口氢载体评价的多准则分析框架

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115040

Ruiqiu Yao, Yutao Li, Liz Varga, Yukun Hu

The transition to sustainable energy systems has underscored green hydrogen as a pivotal solution for reducing dependency on fossil fuels. Green hydrogen carriers possess substantial potential for storing and transporting hydrogen globally. To assist in the decision-making process for evaluating and selecting suitable green hydrogen carriers for international hydrogen trade, this study proposes a structured multi-criteria evaluation framework that combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process with TOPSIS and VIKOR to assess five green hydrogen carriers: liquid hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, dibenzyltoluene, and toluene. Performance criteria include techno-economics (levelised cost of hydrogen, internal rate of return), environmental impacts (IPCC GWP100, ReCiPe end-point) and carrier efficiency. The framework is applied to a prospective South Africa to United Kingdom green hydrogen supply chain, with seven sensitivity cases that vary in capacity factors for electrolysers, utility prices, and grid carbon intensity. The case study shows that carriers have distinct performance across criteria. TOL has the lowest levelised cost of hydrogen ($7.07 kg⁻¹H₂), whereas liquid hydrogen has the lowest environmental impacts (7.62 kg CO₂-eq kg⁻¹H₂, 0.77 Pt kg⁻¹ H₂) and the best carrier efficiency (77.62 %). The AHP-TOPSIS method selects liquid hydrogen as the near-ideal carrier. The AHP-VIKOR selects methanol in most sensitivity cases and shifts to ammonia when renewable sources supply process energy. The proposed framework provides policy-makers with a transparent tool for evaluating green-hydrogen carriers in international trade and for crafting aligned infrastructure and incentive policies.

向可持续能源系统的过渡强调了绿色氢作为减少对化石燃料依赖的关键解决方案。绿色氢载体在全球范围内储存和运输氢具有巨大的潜力。为了帮助国际氢贸易中绿色氢载体的评估和选择决策过程，本研究提出了一个结构化的多标准评估框架，将层次分析法与TOPSIS和VIKOR相结合，对液氢、氨、甲醇、二苄基甲苯和甲苯五种绿色氢载体进行评估。性能标准包括技术经济（氢的平平成本，内部回报率），环境影响（IPCC GWP100，配方终点）和载体效率。该框架应用于南非到英国的绿色氢供应链，其中有七个敏感性案例，这些案例在电解槽容量因素、公用事业价格和电网碳强度方面有所不同。案例研究表明，运营商在不同的标准下具有不同的性能。TOL具有最低的氢气平准化成本（7.07美元），而液态氢具有最低的环境影响（7.62千克二氧化碳当量千克- 1H2, 0.77铂千克- 1H2）和最佳的载体效率（77.62%）。AHP-TOPSIS法选择液氢作为近理想载体。AHP-VIKOR在大多数敏感情况下选择甲醇，当可再生能源提供过程能源时转向氨。拟议的框架为政策制定者提供了一个透明的工具，用于评估国际贸易中的绿色氢载体，并制定一致的基础设施和激励政策。

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引用次数: 0

Public-private partnership in energy investment and inclusive growth 能源投资和包容性增长中的公私伙伴关系

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115010

Shreya Pal

Public–Private Partnerships is an important tool for infrastructure development in emerging economies, offering the possibility of driving both economic growth and climate resilience. However, with the increased consciousness of the role of PPPs, the understanding of how PPP investments in energy are contributing to inclusive development, through a conduit of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) and institutional quality, is still limited. Most existing empirical literature does not consider how these factors together impact the social outcomes of interest, especially to income inequality, poverty, and unemployment, the social dimensions of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study analyses these relationships in a sample of 23 emerging economies from 1995 to 2023 by employing System Generalized Method of Moments, DKSE, and FGLS estimators. The findings of the study observe that a 1 % increase in PPP investment is associated with a 0.70 % decrease in income inequality and 0.16 % and 0.17 % increases in poverty and unemployment, respectively. In contrast, GFCF and institutional quality are associated with adverse impacts on inclusive development indicators. These findings emphasize the lack of social inclusivity of the current patterns of investment. Overall, this suggests that inclusive and climate-resilient growth will only occur when there is an improvement in institutional capacity and investments are made in productive and low-emission social sectors. The study generates a contribution to policy conversations on the balance between efficiency and equity by influencing reforms concerning the governance of, and design of, PPP investment towards SDG 1, SDG 8, SDG 10, and SDG 13.

公私伙伴关系是新兴经济体基础设施发展的重要工具，为推动经济增长和气候适应能力提供了可能。然而，随着人们对公私伙伴关系作用的认识日益增强，人们对能源领域公私伙伴关系投资如何通过固定资本形成总额（GFCF）和制度质量渠道促进包容性发展的理解仍然有限。大多数现有的实证文献没有考虑这些因素如何共同影响感兴趣的社会结果，特别是收入不平等、贫困和失业，以及2030年可持续发展目标（sdg）的社会维度。本文采用系统广义矩量法、DKSE和FGLS估计器对1995年至2023年23个新兴经济体的样本进行了分析。研究发现，PPP投资每增加1%，收入不平等就会减少0.70%，贫困和失业率分别会增加0.16%和0.17%。相比之下，GFCF和制度质量与包容性发展指标的不利影响相关。这些发现强调了当前投资模式缺乏社会包容性。总体而言，这表明只有在制度能力得到改善，并在生产性和低排放的社会部门进行投资的情况下，包容性和气候适应型增长才会出现。该研究通过影响针对可持续发展目标1、可持续发展目标8、可持续发展目标10和可持续发展目标13的PPP投资治理和设计方面的改革，为有关效率与公平之间平衡的政策对话做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Reply to Schien et al. (2025) “Global datacentre electricity consumption is not correlated with data demand: Responding to implausible Assumptions and flawed modelling in castro et al.” comment on Castro et al. (2024) paper in energy policy “Digital data demand and renewable energy limits: Forecasting the impacts on global electricity supply and sustainability” 回复Schien等人（2025）“全球数据中心电力消耗与数据需求不相关：响应castro等人的不可信假设和有缺陷的建模”对castro等人（2024）在能源政策中的论文“数字数据需求和可再生能源限制：预测对全球电力供应和可持续性的影响”的评论

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114963

Vitor Castro , Marios Georgiou , Thomas Jackson , Ian R. Hodgkinson , Lisa Jackson , Steve Lockwood

We thank Schien, Berthelot, Shabajee, and Preist (2025) for their detailed engagement with our article “Digital data demand and renewable energy limits: Forecasting the impacts on global electricity supply and sustainability” (Castro et al., 2024). Scholarly exchange is essential for refining knowledge in this rapidly evolving field. We welcome the opportunity to clarify our approach, address their critiques, and highlight the broader intent of our work.

我们感谢Schien， Berthelot， Shabajee和Preist（2025）对我们的文章“数字数据需求和可再生能源限制：预测对全球电力供应和可持续性的影响”（Castro et al., 2024）的详细参与。在这个快速发展的领域，学术交流对于完善知识是必不可少的。我们欢迎有机会澄清我们的做法，回应他们的批评，并强调我们工作的更广泛意图。

引用次数: 0

Provincial employment effects of coal mine retirement in China's carbon-neutral transition 中国碳中和转型中煤矿退役对省级就业的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2025-12-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115038

Shiyu Li , Zanfeng Wang , Wenji Zhou , Anlan Lin , Hongtao Ren

China's just transition toward carbon neutrality requires carefully designed coal mine retirement strategies that balance climate objectives with social equity and regional development disparities. In this study, we propose a comprehensive analytical framework combining the RUC-MESSAGEix-China (RMC) integrated assessment model with facility-level coal mine data to evaluate three distinct retirement strategies across China's 19 major coal-producing provinces. The cost-optimal strategy prioritizes economic efficiency, the employment-oriented strategy emphasizes social equity, and the balanced strategy seeks an optimal solution between competing objectives. The results show that while all strategies achieve similar retirement targets by 2060, they follow dramatically different pathways. The balanced strategy emerges as optimal for most provinces like Anhui, preserving cumulatively 1.78 million additional job-years compared to cost-optimal strategies. By 2060, the cost-optimal strategy concentrates all remaining operations in efficient regions like Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, while the employment-oriented strategy preserves a broader industrial footprint across provinces like Henan, Shanxi, and Liaoning. Furthermore, provincial analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity: high-production, high-GDP provinces like Shanxi benefit from gradual transitions, while resource-constrained regions like Guizhou require targeted support. The carbon capture and storage scenario demonstrates an improved performance on employment, facilitating an extended employment transition period and enhanced job retention. These findings highlight the necessity of differentiated, location-specific just transition policies rather than uniform national approaches, ensuring no region is left behind during China's decarbonization.

中国向碳中和的转型需要精心设计煤矿退役战略，以平衡气候目标与社会公平和区域发展差距。在本研究中，我们提出了一个综合分析框架，将RUC-MESSAGEix-China （RMC）综合评估模型与设施级煤矿数据相结合，以评估中国19个主要产煤省份的三种不同的退休策略。成本最优战略优先考虑经济效率，以就业为导向的战略强调社会公平，平衡战略寻求竞争目标之间的最优解。结果显示，尽管所有策略都能在2060年前实现相似的退休目标，但它们遵循的路径却截然不同。对于像安徽这样的大多数省份来说，平衡战略是最优的，与成本最优战略相比，它累计保留了178万个额外的就业年。到2060年，成本最优战略将把所有剩余的业务集中在新疆和内蒙古等高效地区，而以就业为导向的战略将在河南、山西和辽宁等省份保留更广泛的工业足迹。此外，省际分析显示了显著的异质性：像山西这样的高产量、高gdp省份受益于逐步转型，而像贵州这样的资源受限地区则需要有针对性的支持。碳捕集与封存情景在就业方面的表现有所改善，有助于延长就业过渡期，提高就业保持率。这些研究结果强调，有必要采取因地制宜的转型政策，而不是统一的国家方针，以确保在中国的脱碳过程中不让任何地区掉队。

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引用次数: 0