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A new approach to assess individual contributions to energy transition goals 评估个人对能源转型目标贡献的新方法
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115055
C. Sanz-Cuadrado , P. Rahdan , Z. Zhang , M. Victoria , A.B. Cristóbal
This paper introduces an innovative system for quantifying and enhancing individual engagement in sustainable energy consumption behaviours that support the energy transition goals set by the European energy policy. Focusing on residential energy use and transportation, the study proposes an innovative labelling system that monitors and evaluates personal energy habits, linking them to CO2 emissions and energy demand reductions. The algorithm, developed using publicly available data from reputable sources, is tailored for application across the 27 EU member states and the UK, facilitating meaningful regional comparisons. The paper outlines the design methodology, algorithm development, and insights from a peer review involving 12 international experts, along with feedback from over 1800 users across Europe. By providing an accessible, data-driven framework, this research fosters citizen engagement in the energy transition, contributing to sustainable development goals and advancing global sustainability initiatives.
本文介绍了一个创新系统,用于量化和增强个人对可持续能源消费行为的参与,以支持欧洲能源政策设定的能源转型目标。该研究以住宅能源使用和交通为重点,提出了一种创新的标签系统,该系统可以监测和评估个人的能源习惯,并将其与二氧化碳排放和能源需求减少联系起来。该算法是根据来自知名来源的公开数据开发的,专为欧盟27个成员国和英国的应用量身定制,促进了有意义的地区比较。该论文概述了设计方法、算法开发以及来自12位国际专家的同行评审的见解,以及来自欧洲1800多名用户的反馈。通过提供一个可访问的、数据驱动的框架,该研究促进了公民对能源转型的参与,为可持续发展目标做出了贡献,并推动了全球可持续发展倡议。
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引用次数: 0
Don't charge while you heat! The social potential for flexibility and coordination of energy-intensive technologies in single-family houses 加热时不要充电!单户住宅中能源密集型技术的灵活性和协调性的社会潜力
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115069
Carolina Hiller , Hanna Björner Brauer , Magdalena Kania-Lundholm , Erik Lundberg , Therese Olsson
This study explores the social potential for flexibility and coordination of energy-intensive technologies, specifically electric vehicles and heat pumps – an increasingly common combination in Swedish single-family homes with diverse needs and motivations. As electrification rises and power peaks grow more concerning, the research examines flexibility in everyday EV charging and heating practices, focusing on enabling and hindering conditions. Drawing on 21 household interviews and social practice theory, the study found that flexibility potential was influenced by temporal, geographical, and material conditions, along with values, expectations, and experiences. Alternative charging strategies and frugal heating practices demonstrated flexibility, especially among households valuing environmental care. Foreseeability supported flexibility, while rigid schedules and high comfort expectations posed challenges. Practices centred around care were important but could reduce flexibility, and unfavourable combinations of geographical and material conditions further constrained it, but instead shaped fragility and awareness. Coordinating EV charging with heat pump use and adapting to new power tariffs proved complex. The study highlights the importance of understanding the social dimensions of energy flexibility and offers insights for policymakers and energy providers to support households in managing and coordinating practices related to multiple energy-intensive technologies in response to price signals and power demands.
这项研究探讨了能源密集型技术的灵活性和协调性的社会潜力,特别是电动汽车和热泵-这是瑞典单户住宅中越来越普遍的组合,具有不同的需求和动机。随着电气化程度的提高和功率峰值的增加,该研究考察了日常电动汽车充电和加热实践的灵活性,重点关注有利条件和不利条件。根据21个家庭访谈和社会实践理论,研究发现灵活性潜力受到时间、地理和物质条件的影响,以及价值观、期望和经验的影响。替代收费策略和节约供暖实践显示出灵活性,特别是在重视环境保护的家庭中。可预见性支持灵活性,而严格的时间表和高舒适度的期望带来了挑战。以护理为中心的做法很重要,但可能会降低灵活性,不利的地理和物质条件组合进一步限制了灵活性,但反而塑造了脆弱性和意识。将电动汽车充电与热泵的使用相协调,并适应新的电价被证明是复杂的。该研究强调了理解能源灵活性的社会维度的重要性,并为政策制定者和能源供应商提供了见解,以支持家庭管理和协调与多种能源密集型技术相关的实践,以响应价格信号和电力需求。
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引用次数: 0
When energy transitions drive polarization: Narratives of green energy and mitigation strategies by proponents and opponents of geothermal energy developments in Indonesia 当能源转型推动两极分化:印度尼西亚地热能源开发的支持者和反对者对绿色能源和缓解战略的叙述
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115080
Jonathan Davis Smith , Martha Hesty Susilowati , Samsul Maarif , Eko Cahyono
This article contributes to research on social acceptance of energy transitions by analyzing environmental polarization between proponents and opponents of geothermal energy developments in Indonesia. It is based on data from a 2024–2025 study which used community-based participatory research in 14 locations with geothermal developments. Due to its location on the ring of fire, Indonesia offers a wealth of untapped resources for geothermal energy; full utilization of this energy source could reduce the nation's reliance on coal-fired power plants. Yet the rapid increase of geothermal developments since 2021 has led to public opposition. The study found evidence of actual polarization between elites and local communities in 1) contrasting narratives about green energy, and 2) contrasting mitigation strategies to address community polarization. These findings explain how social acceptance of energy transitions can be a barrier or an asset depending on 1) how socio-cultural values align between environmental policymakers and local communities, and 2) how methods for obtaining community acceptance align with principles of mitigating environmental polarization: open communication, deliberation, and collective action. The article recommends that 1) community resistance to geothermal developments should be viewed as a sign that environmental policies are increasing harmful polarization, 2) local communities and local knowledges should be viewed as socio-cultural assets to develop just green energy policies that improve local and national economic outputs alongside reducing carbon emissions and promoting healthy ecosystems, and 3) spaces for open deliberation about renewable energy transitions are needed to inform environmental policies.
本文通过分析印度尼西亚地热能开发的支持者和反对者之间的环境极化,有助于研究能源转型的社会接受度。它基于2024-2025年研究的数据,该研究在14个地热开发地点进行了基于社区的参与性研究。由于地处火山带,印尼提供了大量尚未开发的地热资源;充分利用这种能源可以减少国家对燃煤电厂的依赖。然而,自2021年以来,地热开发的快速增长引发了公众的反对。该研究发现了精英和当地社区之间实际两极分化的证据:1)关于绿色能源的不同叙述,以及2)解决社区两极分化的不同缓解策略。这些发现解释了社会对能源转型的接受如何成为障碍或资产,这取决于1)环境政策制定者和当地社区之间的社会文化价值观如何一致,以及2)获得社区接受的方法如何与减轻环境两极分化的原则相一致:公开沟通、审议和集体行动。这篇文章建议:1)社区对地热开发的抵制应被视为环境政策正在加剧有害的两极分化的迹象;2)当地社区和当地知识应被视为社会文化资产,以制定绿色能源政策,提高地方和国家的经济产出,同时减少碳排放,促进健康的生态系统。3)需要为可再生能源转型提供公开审议空间,为环境政策提供信息。
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引用次数: 0
Internet use propels cleaner cooking adoption and health gains in rural China 互联网的使用推动了中国农村地区更清洁的烹饪方式的采用和健康状况的改善
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115082
Hui Xu , Xinpu Wang , Dawei Zhang
Solid fuel reliance impedes health improvements and health equity in rural China. Against the backdrop of “Internet + Healthcare”, this study examines how internet access shapes the adoption of cleaner cooking fuels and thereby affects population health. Using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS, 2014–2022), we quantify the impact of household internet use on clean cooking adoption, uncover the underlying mechanisms, and estimate associated health gains. Key findings indicate that: (i) Internet use significantly promotes rural households' transition to cleaner cooking fuels. (ii) This transition is primarily driven by two pathways: increased household income and enhanced health literacy. (iii) The effect varies significantly across regions and demographic groups. (iv) Crucially, Internet use improves physical health, mediated by cleaner cooking adoption. This research provides valuable insights for promoting synergistic energy-health policies to accelerate clean cooking transitions and enhance population health in rural China.
对固体燃料的依赖阻碍了中国农村地区的健康改善和健康公平。在“互联网+医疗”的背景下,本研究探讨了互联网接入如何影响更清洁烹饪燃料的采用,从而影响人口健康。利用中国家庭面板研究(CFPS, 2014-2022)的纵向数据,我们量化了家庭互联网使用对清洁烹饪采用的影响,揭示了潜在的机制,并估计了相关的健康收益。主要发现表明:(i)互联网的使用显著促进了农村家庭向更清洁的烹饪燃料过渡。㈡这一转变主要由两条途径推动:增加家庭收入和提高卫生知识普及程度。各区域和人口群体的影响差别很大。(四)至关重要的是,互联网的使用通过采用更清洁的烹饪方式改善了身体健康。本研究为促进能源健康协同政策以加速清洁烹饪转型和提高中国农村人口健康水平提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Solar energy transition under IMF conditionality: Distributive justice and energy policy imperative in Pakistan 国际货币基金组织条件下的太阳能转型:巴基斯坦的分配正义和能源政策势在必行
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115070
Khalid Ahmed , Abdul Khalique , Bareerah Khan
Despite Pakistan's long-enduring chronic energy crisis, a recent surge in solar generation supplied nearly 25 % of the national electricity grid in the first quarter of 2025, broadening access and easing cost pressures. Conversely, IMF conditionality under IMF financing programs, such as tariff rebasing and a 10 % sales tax on solar imports, risk undermining these distributive gains. This study examines the interaction between solar adoption, IMF credit, and household electricity prices in shaping energy justice, using annual data from 2007 to 2024. We capture direct, mediated, and dynamic effects using time-series analysis and causal mediation models, respectively. Results show that a 1 % increase in solar generation reduces injustice by 0.142 points (p < 0.01), with benefits most substantial in rural areas. Mediation analysis demonstrates that IMF credit alleviates injustice only when channeled through solar adoption (β = 0.251 → SE; Sobel z = −2.47), while tariff hikes directly worsen inequality (β = −0.399, p < 0.05) but partially induce adoption. VAR evidence reveals that price shocks immediately intensify injustice, whereas solar shocks reduce disparities gradually. Results conclude that solar energy holds great promise, but cannot single-handedly drive a just transition. Achieving equitable outcomes requires addressing policy barriers by removing regressive fiscal measures, safeguarding net-metering, dedicating IMF resources to decentralized solar projects in marginalized communities, and broadening targeted subsidies for low-income populations. A failure to implement such measures could render Pakistan's solar expansion exclusive, thereby widening inequality.
尽管巴基斯坦长期存在慢性能源危机,但最近太阳能发电的激增为2025年第一季度提供了近25%的国家电网,扩大了接入范围并缓解了成本压力。相反,国际货币基金组织在其融资计划下的条件,如关税调整和对太阳能进口征收10%的销售税,有可能破坏这些分配收益。本研究使用2007年至2024年的年度数据,考察了太阳能采用、国际货币基金组织信贷和家庭电价在形成能源公平方面的相互作用。我们分别使用时间序列分析和因果中介模型捕捉直接、中介和动态效应。结果表明,太阳能发电量每增加1%,不公现象就会减少0.142点(p < 0.01),其中农村地区的收益最为显著。中介分析表明,国际货币基金组织的信贷只有通过采用太阳能才能缓解不公平(β = 0.251→SE; Sobel z = - 2.47),而关税上调直接加剧了不平等(β = - 0.399, p < 0.05),但部分诱导了采用。VAR证据显示,价格冲击会立即加剧不公平现象,而太阳能冲击则会逐渐缩小差距。研究结果表明,太阳能具有巨大的前景,但不能单凭一己之力推动公正的过渡。实现公平成果需要消除政策障碍,包括取消累退性财政措施,保障净计量,将基金组织资源用于边缘化社区的分散式太阳能项目,以及扩大对低收入人群的定向补贴。如果不能实施这些措施,巴基斯坦的太阳能扩张可能会被排斥,从而扩大不平等。
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引用次数: 0
The U.S. shale energy sector navigating domestic policies in a fragmenting global economy 在全球经济分化的背景下,美国页岩能源行业如何引导国内政策
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115076
Valentina Galvani , Noha A. Razek
The stated goal of the U.S. Energy Dominance Council is to support the U.S. energy sector by leveraging private-sector investments and bolstering U.S. energy independence, while also reducing energy prices. This study empirically examines economic and financial drivers, both domestic and global, of shale energy companies’ equity returns to provide sector-specific policy recommendations. Since the oil market is internationally connected, the shale energy sector is not insulated from the impact of geopolitical tensions. Hence, we also explore the impact of a variety of geopolitical risk measures in determining U.S. shale energy equity returns. We employ the Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) methodology to accommodate relationships that vary across different oil-price regimes. We conclude that support for the shale energy sector aimed at alleviating the impact of leverage costs (e.g., subsidies or reforms to the reserve-based lending framework) should be mostly limited to periods of low oil prices. Most oil-dependent economies establish stabilization funds to save oil proceeds during periods of high oil prices, with the savings intended to maintain aggregate consumption and government investment levels on rainy days, when oil prices are low. We propose that the U.S. government could consider this approach to smooth shale energy investments across regimes. In recent history, Saudi Arabia has been the ultimate winner of geopolitical events impacting its competitors in the global oil market. The novelty brought about by the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict is that geopolitical risk boosted the valuations of U.S. shale energy companies.
美国能源主导委员会(U.S. Energy Dominance Council)的既定目标是,在降低能源价格的同时,利用私营部门的投资,支持美国的能源部门,增强美国的能源独立性。本研究实证分析了页岩能源公司股票回报的国内和全球经济和金融驱动因素,以提供针对特定行业的政策建议。由于石油市场与国际接轨,页岩能源行业也无法免受地缘政治紧张局势的影响。因此,我们还探讨了各种地缘政治风险指标在确定美国页岩能源股票回报方面的影响。我们采用阈值自回归(TAR)方法来适应不同油价制度之间的关系。我们的结论是,旨在减轻杠杆成本影响的页岩能源行业支持(例如,补贴或对基于储备的贷款框架进行改革)应主要限于低油价时期。大多数依赖石油的经济体都建立了稳定基金,以在高油价时期储存石油收益,这些储蓄旨在在油价低迷时维持总消费和政府投资水平。我们建议,美国政府可以考虑采用这种方法,使页岩能源投资在各个政权之间更加顺利。在最近的历史中,沙特阿拉伯一直是影响其全球石油市场竞争对手的地缘政治事件的最终赢家。2022年俄乌冲突带来的新奇之处在于,地缘政治风险推高了美国页岩能源公司的估值。
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引用次数: 0
Microgrid policy regulation in California and Oregon – A comparative state review 加州和俄勒冈州的微电网政策调控——一个比较的州回顾
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115081
Maham Furqan, Hilary Boudet
Growing attention on grid decarbonization, decentralization, energy equity, and resilience against extreme weather events have propelled microgrids to the policy forefront as a potential solution. However, despite growing popularity, clear governance and regulatory frameworks them are still lacking, hindering their growth in the US. This study explores how policymaking and regulatory structures are evolving to accommodate microgrids. Utilizing a qualitative analysis of 250 policy documents and 48 semi-structured interviews with relevant policy actors, an early (California) and a later (Oregon) adopter of microgrid policies are explored by leveraging the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF). Findings show that California has more instruments at play to support microgrids than Oregon due to more urgent issues including higher power prices, frequent extreme weather events, voluntary grid shutoffs (e.g., Public Safety Power Shutoffs), decarbonization goals, utility distrust, and community push towards energy justice and equity. Conversely, Oregon started out later and is mostly focused on identifying local needs, decarbonizing, and indirectly supporting microgrids. While both states have several similarities, the policy instruments they have employed to support microgrids are distinct. California is initiating multiple policy changes including debating standby charges, working on multi-property microgrid tariffs, resilience valuation, and designing a standardized microgrid tariff structure. Oregon, on the other hand, is focusing more on supporting renewable projects while exploring other policy instruments including resilience planning through microgrids.
对电网脱碳、权力下放、能源公平和抵御极端天气事件的能力的日益关注,将微电网作为一种潜在的解决方案推向了政策的前沿。然而,尽管越来越受欢迎,但它们仍然缺乏明确的治理和监管框架,阻碍了它们在美国的发展。本研究探讨了政策制定和监管结构如何演变以适应微电网。利用对250份政策文件的定性分析和对相关政策参与者的48次半结构化访谈,通过利用多流框架(MSF),探讨了微电网政策的早期(加利福尼亚州)和后期(俄勒冈州)采用者。研究结果表明,由于电价上涨、极端天气事件频发、自愿断电(如公共安全断电)、脱碳目标、公用事业不信任以及社区推动能源正义和公平等更为紧迫的问题,加州比俄勒冈州拥有更多支持微电网的工具。相反,俄勒冈州起步较晚,主要侧重于确定当地需求、脱碳和间接支持微电网。虽然这两个州有一些相似之处,但它们用于支持微电网的政策工具却截然不同。加州正在启动多项政策改革,包括讨论备用收费、研究多属性微电网电价、弹性评估和设计标准化微电网电价结构。另一方面,俄勒冈州更注重支持可再生能源项目,同时探索其他政策工具,包括通过微电网进行弹性规划。
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引用次数: 0
Regional dynamics of agrivoltaics adoption: Stakeholder perceptions and barriers in Maryland, USA 农业发电采用的区域动态:美国马里兰州利益相关者的看法和障碍
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115066
Jennifer D. Morash, Mitchell Pavao-Zuckerman
Agrivoltaics is touted as a win-win practice that combines agricultural production with solar energy production on the same land. Despite a promising list of associated benefits, previous research documents significant adoption barriers. Prior national-scale studies leave space to identify local or regional factors influencing agrivoltaics practice. Adoption of a novel technology ultimately requires behavioral changes that are shaped by knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP). We conducted a series of focus groups to assess the KAP factors of different sectors that shape agrivoltaics in Montgomery County, Maryland. Participants completed a visual survey to assess their interpretation of agrivoltaics. Through these measures, we provide a local and regional understanding of agrivoltaic interpretations, knowledge, attitudes, and practices. Our results indicate a lack of a consensus definition of agrivoltatics, but highlight a strong preference for systems involving crops or grazing livestock over pollinator habitats. Benefits identified by participants reflect key environmental concerns around climate and greenhouse gases, but also extend to economic stability and resilience, and land tenure security. Focus groups revealed skepticism about the applicability of global agrivoltaic research to local contexts. Participant skepticism also reflected the complex socio-enviro-technical aspects of renewable energy transitions. Our results underscore the need for region-specific strategies and educational initiatives (in this case, the mid-Atlantic, USA) to address stakeholder perceptions and facilitate implementation. The social factors identified using an engaged KAP approach is critical for reaching renewable energy goals with the needs and desires of local stakeholders, practitioners, and communities.
农业发电被吹捧为一种双赢的做法,将农业生产与太阳能生产结合在同一块土地上。尽管有一系列有希望的相关好处,但先前的研究表明,采用这种技术存在重大障碍。先前的全国性研究为确定影响农业发电实践的地方或区域因素留下了空间。采用新技术最终需要由知识、态度和实践(KAP)形成的行为改变。我们进行了一系列焦点小组,以评估影响马里兰州蒙哥马利县农业发电的不同部门的KAP因素。参与者完成了一项视觉调查,以评估他们对农业发电的理解。通过这些措施,我们提供了对农业光伏解释、知识、态度和实践的本地和区域理解。我们的研究结果表明,对农业发电缺乏共识的定义,但强调了对涉及作物或放牧牲畜的系统的强烈偏好,而不是传粉者的栖息地。与会者确定的利益反映了围绕气候和温室气体的关键环境问题,但也延伸到经济稳定性和复原力以及土地使用权安全。焦点小组揭示了对全球农业光伏研究在当地背景下的适用性的怀疑。与会者的怀疑也反映了可再生能源转型的复杂社会环境技术方面。我们的研究结果强调了制定地区特定战略和教育计划(在本例中是美国大西洋中部地区)的必要性,以解决利益相关者的看法并促进实施。使用参与式KAP方法确定的社会因素对于实现符合当地利益相关者、从业者和社区需求和愿望的可再生能源目标至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of various combinations of carbon quota allocation rules on supply chains 碳配额分配规则的不同组合对供应链的影响
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115075
Ping Shi , Xiaofang Lin , Lu Xiao , Song Shi
The cap-and-trade (CAT) mechanism is a key policy tool to regulate corporate carbon emissions, yet its aggregate effect remains unclear when upstream and downstream enterprises are subject to different carbon quota allocation rules. This study examines a two-echelon supply chain comprising one supplier and one manufacturer. The government may implement either benchmark-based allocation rule (B) or grandfather-based allocation rule (G) for the supplier and manufacturer, leading to four possible allocation rule combinations: BB, BG, GB, and GG. We explore how these rules affect consumer surplus, social welfare, and the environment. The key findings are as follows: The BB rule achieves optimal market demand and consumer surplus, though it does not necessarily maximize supply chain profits. Under the BB rule, while the supplier and manufacturer can achieve maximum individual emission reduction levels, this does not guarantee optimal total carbon emissions for the supply chain. The BB rule optimizes total carbon emissions only when there is a significant disparity in carbon abatement costs between upstream and downstream firms. In contrast, when carbon abatement costs are homogeneous, the BB rule results in peak total carbon emissions, while the GG rule yields superior overall emission reductions. The BG and GB rules result in intermediate outcomes of emission reduction levels, market demand, consumer surplus, and total carbon emissions. Moreover, the BG/GB rules become the firms’ preferred choice when total carbon quotas are abundant. This research reveals the differentiated regulatory impacts of combined allocation rules on supply chain decarbonization, providing a theoretical foundation for policy design.
限额与交易(CAT)机制是调控企业碳排放的重要政策工具,但在上下游企业碳配额分配规则不同的情况下,其总体效果尚不明确。本文研究了一个由一个供应商和一个制造商组成的两级供应链。政府可能对供应商和制造商实施基于基准的分配规则(B)或基于祖父的分配规则(G),导致四种可能的分配规则组合:BB, BG, GB和GG。我们探讨了这些规则如何影响消费者剩余,社会福利和环境。主要发现如下:BB规则实现了最优的市场需求和消费者剩余,尽管它不一定最大化供应链利润。在BB规则下,虽然供应商和制造商可以实现最大的个人减排水平,但这并不能保证供应链的最佳碳排放总量。只有当上下游企业之间的碳减排成本存在显著差异时,BB规则才会使碳排放总量达到最优。相比之下,当碳减排成本相同时,BB规则产生的碳排放总量达到峰值,而GG规则产生的总减排量更优。BG和GB规则产生了减排水平、市场需求、消费者剩余和碳排放总量的中间结果。此外,当总碳配额充足时,BG/GB规则成为企业的首选。本研究揭示了组合分配规则对供应链脱碳的差异化监管影响,为政策设计提供理论依据。
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引用次数: 0
Determining the impact of future load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and monthly electricity bills in a rural solar PV mini-grid 确定未来负荷构成对农村太阳能光伏微型电网成本反射关税和月度电费的影响
IF 9.2 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115058
Milky Ali Gelchu , Jimmy Ehnberg , Dereje Shiferaw , Erik O. Ahlgren
Renewables-based mini-grids can significantly increase electricity access in rural, non-electrified areas. Despite their potential, mini-grid deployment has been slower than expected due to low profitability in areas with initially low demand. Tariff settings that would improve profitability are challenging due to uncertainty of future demand. While previous studies have explored how tariff settings affect demand and how productive use increases profitability, the impact of load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and users' bills remains unexplored. This study determines the impact of future load compositions on cost-reflective tariffs and monthly electricity bills in a rural solar PV mini-grid. By combining a case with an already installed solar PV-based mini-grid with spare capacity for future demand evolution and three future load composition scenarios, the study calculates cost-reflective tariffs under five different tariff structures (fixed energy, fixed and variable, time-of-use, power, and hybrid) and users monthly bills using the calculated cost-reflective tariffs. The results show that future load compositions significantly impact cost-reflective tariffs and monthly bills, with the effect depending on the tariff structure. Power-based tariffs show a higher reduction compared to energy-based tariffs for load compositions dominated by daily productive uses. The impact on bills for lower-usage households is significant.
基于可再生能源的微型电网可以显著增加农村和非电气化地区的电力供应。尽管具有潜力,但由于在最初需求较低的地区盈利能力较低,微型电网的部署速度低于预期。由于未来需求的不确定性,提高盈利能力的关税设置具有挑战性。虽然以前的研究已经探索了电价设置如何影响需求以及生产性使用如何增加盈利能力,但负荷构成对成本反射电价和用户账单的影响仍未被探索。本研究确定了未来负荷构成对农村太阳能光伏微型电网成本反射电价和月电费的影响。通过将一个案例与已经安装的基于太阳能光伏的小型电网结合起来,该电网具有未来需求演变的备用容量和三种未来负荷构成情景,该研究计算了五种不同电价结构(固定能源、固定和可变、分时、电力和混合)下的成本反射电价,并使用计算出的成本反射电价计算了用户每月的账单。结果表明,未来负荷构成显著影响成本反射电价和月账单,其影响取决于电价结构。与以日常生产用途为主的负荷构成相比,基于电力的关税显示出更高的降幅。这对低用电量家庭的账单影响很大。
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Energy Policy
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