Energy Policy最新文献

Impact evaluation of the social electricity tariff program in Brazil: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design 巴西社会电价计划的影响评估：来自回归不连续设计的证据

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115143

Beatriz Morgado Marcoje , Laura Schiavon , Michelle Hallack , Danielle Carusi Machado , Mariana Weiss de Abreu

This paper evaluates Brazil's Social Electricity Tariff Program and its ability to improve electricity affordability for low-income households using a sharp Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Using data from the 2017–2018 Family Budget Survey (IBGE, 2018), we compare households just below and just above the income eligibility cutoff to estimate the causal effect of eligibility on electricity consumption and expenditures. We find that eligible households consume on average 20 kWh less electricity per month than households just above the cutoff, consistent with under-consumption near the threshold. Eligibility also reduces monthly electricity spending by R$15.35 on average. While statistically significant, this level of relief appears too small to meaningfully ease budget constraints, potentially encouraging households to restrict electricity use to remain within more subsidized consumption brackets. The results suggest that the current benefit schedule may be insufficient to ensure adequate access to modern energy services—such as thermal comfort and information and entertainment—while maintaining payment affordability. We discuss policy adjustments to better align subsidy levels and target heterogeneous household needs, and highlight the importance of accounting for regional and seasonal variation in electricity demand.

本文利用急剧回归不连续设计（RDD）评估了巴西的社会电价计划及其提高低收入家庭电力负担能力的能力。使用2017-2018年家庭预算调查（IBGE, 2018）的数据，我们比较了收入资格门槛略低于和略高于收入资格门槛的家庭，以估计资格对电力消费和支出的因果影响。我们发现，符合条件的家庭每月平均耗电量比刚好在临界值以上的家庭少20千瓦时，这与接近临界值的耗电量不足一致。获得资格还可以平均每月减少15.35雷亚尔的电费支出。虽然在统计上意义重大，但这种程度的缓解似乎太小，无法有效缓解预算紧张，可能会鼓励家庭限制用电量，以保持在更多补贴的消费范围内。结果表明，目前的福利计划可能不足以确保充分获得现代能源服务，如热舒适、信息和娱乐，同时保持支付能力。我们讨论了政策调整，以更好地调整补贴水平和针对不同的家庭需求，并强调了考虑电力需求的区域和季节变化的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Pathways to an equitable low-carbon future: The nexus of climate policy, emerging technologies, and just transitions 通往公平的低碳未来之路：气候政策、新兴技术和公正转型的关系

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115202

Jie Liu, Alexander Opoku, Seth Acquah Boateng, Frank Agyemang Karikari

At the cost of social equity, advanced economies often make biased climate polices that target mostly emission reduction, which cause uneven benefits and inequality. This paper bridges this gap by investigating the impact of climate policy and technological innovation on the transition into a low-carbon economy in the G7 countries. The study uses Driscoll-Kraay error and Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests to examine the effect of renewable energy output (REO), Energy Intensity (ENU), Internet Usage (INT), and research and development (RND) on Just Transition Index (JTI), which measures income inequality, energy poverty, and air pollution. The results reveal that REO enhances just transition performance, suggesting that climate policies through renewable energy expansion foster decarbonization and social inclusion. ENU also shows a positive effect; this suggests that improved energy access enhances living standards. INT has the largest impact, confirming the role emerging in reducing inequity. The study concludes that equitable low-carbon transition in advanced economies requires integrated strategies aligning climate policies, emerging technologies, and energy access policies to ensure that efforts towards sustainability create fairness rather than increase inequalities.

发达经济体往往以社会公平为代价，制定以减排为主要目标的有偏见的气候政策，导致利益不均衡和不平等。本文通过调查气候政策和技术创新对七国集团国家向低碳经济转型的影响，弥合了这一差距。该研究使用Driscoll-Kraay误差和dumitrescue - hurlin因果关系检验来检验可再生能源产出（REO）、能源强度（ENU）、互联网使用（INT）和研发（RND）对衡量收入不平等、能源贫困和空气污染的公正转型指数（JTI）的影响。结果表明，REO提高了转型绩效，表明通过可再生能源扩张的气候政策促进了脱碳和社会包容。ENU也显示出积极的影响；这表明能源获取的改善提高了生活水平。INT的影响最大，证实了在减少不平等方面正在出现的作用。该研究的结论是，发达经济体公平的低碳转型需要综合战略，使气候政策、新兴技术和能源获取政策相协调，以确保可持续发展的努力创造公平，而不是增加不平等。

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引用次数: 0

The sustainability trilemma of land scarcity: Quantifying the societal cost of Taiwan's energy transition 土地短缺的可持续性三难困境：量化台湾能源转型的社会成本

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115223

Xiaohu Zhao , Yulei Xie , Zhihui Tian , Qiao Hu , Mengjie Hou , Mingyang Deng , Shaorui Dong , Yuanrui Liu

Achieving sustainable development goals requires transitioning to renewable energy, but this creates intense competition for land, a critical and finite resource. The effectiveness of climate policies under such constraints remains poorly quantified. Using Taiwan as a case study for a land-constrained economy, we developed a power sector optimization model to analyze this conflict. We find that realistic land-use constraints are sufficient to cause the failure of market-based climate policies, stalling the energy transition even under high carbon prices. Consequently, direct policy mandates to achieve a 36% renewable target, while effective, incur substantial societal costs, increasing system-wide expenses by up to 112%. The model reveals that the least-cost pathway deepens the reliance on imported natural gas for system adequacy, posing a challenge to long-term supply resilience. Our findings reveal the profound economic trade-offs inherent in sustainable development and underscore the necessity of integrating energy policy with national land-use planning.

实现可持续发展目标需要向可再生能源过渡，但这造成了对土地这一关键而有限的资源的激烈竞争。在这些限制条件下，气候政策的有效性仍然难以量化。以台湾为例，我们建立了一个电力部门优化模型来分析这种冲突。我们发现，现实的土地利用限制足以导致以市场为基础的气候政策失败，即使在高碳价格下也会阻碍能源转型。因此，实现36%可再生能源目标的直接政策要求虽然有效，但会产生巨大的社会成本，使整个系统的费用增加高达112%。该模型显示，最低成本路径加深了对进口天然气的依赖，以确保系统充足性，对长期供应弹性提出了挑战。我们的研究结果揭示了可持续发展所固有的深刻的经济权衡，并强调了将能源政策与国家土地利用规划相结合的必要性。

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引用次数: 0

Scenario-based analysis of electric vehicle adoption in the United States: Technology, infrastructure, and electricity pricing 基于场景的美国电动汽车采用分析：技术、基础设施和电价

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115218

Manlin Gong , Ruixiao Sun , Yuche Chen

This study investigates the impact of battery technology advancement, charging infrastructure development, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity pricing on vehicle adoption by 6 powertrain types in the United States through 2050. Using the Market Acceptance of Advanced Automotive Technologies (MA3T) model, we simulate 15 scenarios, examining individual cost factors and their combinations. We assess outcomes through market share, consumer surplus, and energy consumption. Results show that battery cost reductions are the strongest driver of EV adoption, increasing 2050 battery electric vehicle (BEV) share by 27 percentage points over baseline, raising annual consumer surplus by $511 per household, and reducing cumulative energy consumption by 16,610 trillion Btu. These gains are two to five times larger than those from other individual factors. Reducing home charging installation costs produces moderate impact, while TOU pricing alone yields only small gains, raising 2050 BEV market share by 1–2 percentage points. However, when cost factor improvements are combined, their effects are amplified beyond simple additivity. Pairing modest battery cost reductions with charging installation cost reductions and TOU pricing results in the largest 2050 BEV sales combined impact. The analysis demonstrates that moderate progress targeting multiple cost barriers may be more impactful than focusing on any single barrier.

本研究调查了电池技术进步、充电基础设施发展和分时电价（TOU）对美国6种动力总成类型到2050年的车辆采用的影响。使用先进汽车技术的市场接受度（MA3T）模型，我们模拟了15种情况，检查了单个成本因素及其组合。我们通过市场份额、消费者剩余和能源消耗来评估结果。结果显示，电池成本的降低是电动汽车采用的最大推动力，2050年电池电动汽车（BEV）的份额比基线增加了27个百分点，每户每年的消费者剩余增加了511美元，累计减少了16,610万亿Btu的能源消耗。这些收益是其他个体因素的2到5倍。降低家庭充电安装成本产生的影响不大，而单独的分时电价只能带来很小的收益，将2050年纯电动汽车的市场份额提高1-2个百分点。然而，当成本因素的改进结合在一起时，它们的影响就会被放大，而不仅仅是简单的加法。将电池成本的适度降低与充电安装成本的降低和分时电价的降低相结合，将对2050年纯电动汽车的销售产生最大的影响。分析表明，针对多种成本障碍的适度进展可能比专注于任何单一障碍更有效。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to: Regional inequality of the European ETS-2 [Energy policy 208 (2026) 114891] 欧洲ETS-2的区域不平等[能源政策208(2026)114891]的更正

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.115023

Sigit Perdana , Marc Vielle

引用次数: 0

Reshaping global energy security: Implications of embodied energy transfers in global supply chains 重塑全球能源安全：全球供应链中隐含能源转移的影响

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115186

Yannan Zhou , Ying Lu , Yu Yang , Yan Cheng , Ze He , Yuxin Wang , Yuli Shan

In an increasingly globalized world, energy security is no longer solely determined by direct energy imports but also by complex, cross-border flows of embodied energy embedded within traded goods and services. This study investigates how these embodied energy transfers reshape national energy dependencies and risk exposures within global production networks. Using a multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model based on GTAP 11 and IEA data, this study develops indicators of embodied energy import dependency and diversification, and introduces an innovative energy-risk mask method to identify the spatial sourcing tiers of energy risks embedded in international trade. Our findings show that while global embodied energy dependency has declined slightly since 2000, highly globalized economies such as Singapore and Luxembourg remain extremely reliant on external energy inputs. In addition, countries including Norway and China exhibit structurally concentrated embodied energy import sources, increasing their exposure to potential supply chain disruptions. Moreover, over 50% of global medium- and high-risk embodied energy is transmitted through long-distance trade, with large emerging economies like China and India heavily reliant on energy embedded in imports from geopolitically unstable regions. These risks are often obscured by conventional energy security metrics, which fail to capture the hidden dependencies of complex global supply chains. This study calls for the integration of embodied energy flow considerations into national energy strategies, emphasizing the need for diversified sourcing, upstream risk monitoring, and trade-energy policy coordination to enhance resilience in a geopolitically interconnected world.

在日益全球化的世界中，能源安全不再仅仅取决于直接的能源进口，还取决于贸易商品和服务中蕴含的复杂的跨境能源流动。本研究探讨了这些具体化的能源转移如何在全球生产网络中重塑国家能源依赖和风险暴露。利用基于GTAP 11和IEA数据的多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型，构建了隐含能源进口依赖和多样化指标，并引入了一种创新的能源风险掩码方法来识别国际贸易中隐含的能源风险的空间来源层次。我们的研究结果表明，虽然自2000年以来全球具体化能源依赖略有下降，但新加坡和卢森堡等高度全球化的经济体仍然极度依赖外部能源投入。此外，包括挪威和中国在内的国家表现出结构性集中的隐含能源进口来源，增加了其潜在供应链中断的风险。此外，全球超过50%的中等和高风险隐含能源是通过长途贸易传输的，中国和印度等大型新兴经济体严重依赖从地缘政治不稳定地区进口的能源。这些风险往往被传统的能源安全指标所掩盖，这些指标未能捕捉到复杂的全球供应链中隐藏的依赖关系。本研究呼吁将具体化的能源流考虑纳入国家能源战略，强调多样化采购、上游风险监测和贸易-能源政策协调的必要性，以增强在地缘政治相互关联的世界中的弹性。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating energy poverty under policy uncertainty: The interaction of geopolitical risk and energy transition 政策不确定性下的能源贫困：地缘政治风险与能源转型的相互作用

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115185

Farid Ullah , Qianjin Lu , Chen Jie , Kainat Iftikhar , Degong Ma

Access to affordable and reliable energy continues to be a significant global challenge; nevertheless, the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions on energy poverty has received inadequate consideration. This study examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on energy poverty at the national level, exploring the mitigating role of geopolitical risk and the mediating influence of energy transition. This study employs a panel dataset of monthly observations from 41 countries, including members of the ASEAN and EU, covering 2003–2024. Utilizing a global panel dataset and advanced regression methodologies, we find that increasing economic policy uncertainty worsens energy poverty, especially in emerging countries. Nonetheless, geopolitical risk weakens the relationship, highlighting its complex impact on national energy vulnerability. Moreover, advancements in energy transition partially mediates this relationship, substantially mitigate the effects of policy uncertainty, reinforcing the significance of renewable energy adoption. The results highlight the immediate requirement for integrated policy measures and rapid energy transition strategies to ensure fair access to sustainable energy and attain global energy sustainability objectives.

获得负担得起的可靠能源仍然是一项重大的全球挑战；然而，经济政策的不确定性和地缘政治紧张局势对能源贫穷的影响没有得到充分的考虑。本研究从国家层面考察经济政策不确定性对能源贫困的影响，探讨地缘政治风险的缓解作用和能源转型的中介作用。本研究采用了一个面板数据集，包括2003-2024年期间41个国家（包括东盟和欧盟成员国）的月度观察数据。利用全球面板数据集和先进的回归方法，我们发现经济政策不确定性的增加加剧了能源贫困，特别是在新兴国家。然而，地缘政治风险削弱了两国关系，凸显了其对国家能源脆弱性的复杂影响。此外，能源转型的进展在一定程度上调解了这种关系，大大减轻了政策不确定性的影响，加强了采用可再生能源的重要性。研究结果强调，迫切需要采取综合政策措施和快速能源转型战略，以确保公平获得可持续能源并实现全球能源可持续性目标。

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引用次数: 0

The effect of unified national electricity markets: A simulation analysis in China 全国统一电力市场的影响：中国的模拟分析

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115222

Tielong Wu

This paper investigates the potential effects of a unified electricity market in China, which accounts for roughly one-third of global electricity generation. We develop a theoretical framework combining the Cournot model, capturing firms' strategic behavior, with a cost-minimization benchmark. Using 2019 provincial data on thermal units, hourly electricity demand, and interprovincial transmission, we simulate five counterfactual scenarios. Results show that full national unification without transmission constraints substantially lower average electricity prices by 35.6%, reduce generation costs by 11.6%, and raise welfare by 12.1% relative to provincial autarky. By contrast, the cost-minimization model underestimates these gains, highlighting the importance of accounting for strategic behavior in assessing market outcomes. Regional coordination captures the majority of efficiency gains, while transmission bottlenecks limit price convergence and lead provincial disparities. We also find that market unification can produce counterintuitive effects on carbon emissions, as shifts between coal and gas generation may increase emissions even when total generation rises. These findings highlight the trade-offs between efficiency and environmental objectives and provide policy-relevant insights for the design of China's ongoing electricity market reforms.

本文研究了中国统一电力市场的潜在影响，中国的发电量约占全球发电量的三分之一。我们开发了一个理论框架，结合古诺模型，捕捉企业的战略行为，与成本最小化基准。利用2019年各省的热能单位、小时电力需求和省际传输数据，我们模拟了五种反事实情景。结果表明，与省级自给自足相比，无输电约束的完全全国统一大幅降低平均电价35.6%，降低发电成本11.6%，提高福利12.1%。相比之下，成本最小化模型低估了这些收益，强调了在评估市场结果时考虑战略行为的重要性。区域协调获得了大部分效率收益，而输电瓶颈限制了价格趋同并导致各省差距。我们还发现，市场统一可能会对碳排放产生反直觉的影响，因为即使总发电量增加，煤炭和天然气发电之间的转换也可能增加排放。这些发现突出了效率和环境目标之间的权衡，并为中国正在进行的电力市场改革的设计提供了与政策相关的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Enhancing industrial energy efficiency: Strategies, barriers and opportunities in the context of electricity supply challenges 提高工业能源效率：电力供应挑战背景下的战略、障碍和机遇

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115192

McArthur Fundira, Charles Mbohwa

Industrial energy efficiency is widely promoted as a means of reducing operating costs and advancing sustainability, yet its adoption within energy-intensive manufacturing remains uneven. This study examined how energy efficiency strategies, barriers, and policy influences manifest within a metal processing plant to identify practical levers for cost reduction and sustainable energy management. A quantitative case-study approach was adopted, using structured questionnaires administered to managerial and technical staff (n = 29). Descriptive and comparative analyses were applied to assess energy monitoring practices, technology adoption, perceived barriers and drivers, and policy effectiveness. The findings reveal a strong operational culture of energy monitoring and benchmarking, contrasted by limited system-wide optimisation and weak institutional alignment. Financial constraints and competing investment priorities were the most significant barriers, while cost savings, long-term planning, and integration of energy into environmental management systems emerged as dominant drivers. Policy instruments were viewed as moderately effective at present but increasingly crucial for future adoption. These insights are valuable for industrial managers and policymakers seeking to translate energy awareness into sustained efficiency gains and improved governance at the plant level.

工业能源效率作为一种降低运营成本和促进可持续发展的手段被广泛推广，但在能源密集型制造业中，它的采用仍然不均衡。本研究考察了能源效率战略、障碍和政策影响如何在金属加工厂内表现出来，以确定降低成本和可持续能源管理的实际杠杆。采用定量个案研究方法，对管理人员和技术人员（n = 29）进行结构化问卷调查。采用描述性和比较分析来评估能源监测实践、技术采用、感知障碍和驱动因素以及政策有效性。研究结果表明，与有限的全系统优化和薄弱的制度一致性形成鲜明对比的是，能源监测和基准管理的运营文化很强。财政限制和竞争性投资优先事项是最大的障碍，而成本节约、长期规划和将能源纳入环境管理系统则是主要的驱动因素。政策工具被认为目前效果尚可，但对今后采用却日益重要。这些见解对寻求将能源意识转化为持续的效率提高和改善工厂一级治理的工业管理者和政策制定者很有价值。

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引用次数: 0

Carbon taxes and climate action: Lessons from Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina 碳税和气候行动：墨西哥、哥伦比亚和阿根廷的经验教训

IF 9.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115191

Elias Muzzi PintoCoelhoJunior , Paula Carvalho Pereda

In this paper, we evaluate the emissions impacts of three national carbon tax policies implemented in Latin America: in Mexico (2014), Colombia (2017), and Argentina (2018). Using the Synthetic Control Method and a panel of 30 Latin American countries from 2000 to 2019, we construct data-driven counterfactual trajectories of per capita CO₂ emissions from energy and transport for each treated country. We find no evidence that carbon taxation significantly reduced emissions in Argentina or Colombia: although post-reform energy emissions fall relative to their synthetic controls, these differences do not survive placebo tests, and no significant effects are detected for transport emissions. In contrast, Mexico’s reform is associated with statistically significant reductions of approximately 7.9% in per capita energy emissions and 12% in per capita transport emissions in the post-tax period. These effects likely reflect not only the carbon tax itself, which was set at modest rates (up to about USD 3.5/tCO₂), but also the simultaneous removal of fuel subsidies and broader fuel tax adjustments that increased effective energy prices. We use an evaluation of carbon taxes in developing economies to show the importance of policy design, complementary reforms, and institutional context for the effectiveness of carbon pricing. We do this by providing a cross-country analysis using (data-driven) country-specific synthetic counterfactuals that preserve heterogeneity in policy design and institutional context. Together, the results help reconcile mixed evidence in the literature and underscore that an effective policy requires broader coverage and higher prices over longer adjustment windows.

本文对拉丁美洲墨西哥（2014年）、哥伦比亚（2017年）和阿根廷（2018年）三个国家实施的碳税政策的排放影响进行了评估。使用综合控制方法和30个拉丁美洲国家2000年至2019年的面板，我们构建了每个处理国家的能源和交通人均二氧化碳排放的数据驱动的反事实轨迹。我们没有发现证据表明碳税显著减少了阿根廷或哥伦比亚的排放：尽管改革后的能源排放相对于其综合控制下降，但这些差异无法通过安慰剂测试，并且没有发现对运输排放的显著影响。相比之下，墨西哥的改革在统计上显着减少了大约7.9%的人均能源排放和12%的人均交通排放。这些影响可能不仅反映了碳税本身设定的适度税率（最高约为3.5美元/吨二氧化碳），还反映了同时取消燃料补贴和更广泛的燃油税调整提高了有效能源价格。我们对发展中经济体的碳税进行了评估，以显示政策设计、互补改革和制度背景对碳定价有效性的重要性。为此，我们使用（数据驱动的）针对具体国家的综合反事实提供了一项跨国分析，以保持政策设计和制度背景的异质性。总之，这些结果有助于调和文献中混杂的证据，并强调有效的政策需要更广泛的覆盖范围和更长调整窗口的更高价格。

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引用次数: 0