A probabilistic model for real-time quantification of building energy flexibility

IF 13 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Advances in Applied Energy Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI:10.1016/j.adapen.2024.100186
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Abstract

Buildings have great energy flexibility potential to manage supply-demand imbalance in power grids with high renewable penetration. Accurate and real-time quantification of building energy flexibility is essential not only for engaging buildings in electricity and grid service markets, but also for ensuring the reliable and optimal operation of power grids. This paper proposes a probabilistic model for rapidly quantifying the aggregated flexibility of buildings under uncertainties. An explicit equation is derived as the analytical solution of a commonly used second-order building thermodynamic model to quantify the flexibility of individual buildings, eliminating the need of time-consuming iterative and finite difference computations. A sampling-based uncertainty analysis is performed to obtain the distribution of aggregated building flexibility, considering major uncertainties comprehensively. Validation tests are conducted using 150 commercial buildings in Hong Kong. The results show that the proposed model not only quantifies the aggregated flexibility with high accuracy, but also dramatically reduces the computation time from 3605 s to 6.7 s, about 537 times faster than the existing probabilistic model solved numerically. Moreover, the proposed model is 8 times faster than the archetype-based model and achieves significantly higher accuracy.

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实时量化建筑能源灵活性的概率模型
在可再生能源渗透率较高的电网中,建筑物在管理供需失衡方面具有巨大的能源灵活性潜力。准确、实时地量化建筑物的能源灵活性不仅对建筑物参与电力和电网服务市场至关重要,而且对确保电网的可靠和优化运行也至关重要。本文提出了一种概率模型,用于在不确定情况下快速量化建筑物的综合灵活性。通过对常用的二阶建筑热力学模型进行分析求解,推导出一个显式方程来量化单个建筑的灵活性,从而省去了耗时的迭代和有限差分计算。在全面考虑主要不确定性的情况下,通过基于抽样的不确定性分析,获得了建筑物总体柔性的分布。利用香港 150 幢商业建筑进行了验证测试。结果表明,所提出的模型不仅能高精度地量化总体柔性,还能将计算时间从 3605 秒大幅缩短至 6.7 秒,比现有的数值概率模型快约 537 倍。此外,所提出的模型比基于原型的模型快 8 倍,而且精度明显更高。
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来源期刊
Advances in Applied Energy
Advances in Applied Energy Energy-General Energy
CiteScore
23.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
36
审稿时长
21 days
期刊最新文献
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