As effective multilevel climate governance involves integrated action and reporting at and across national and subnational levels, tracking mitigation performance requires more timely emission monitoring. To overcome the lag of current emission inventories, here we propose a subnational near-real-time CO2 emission accounting framework and integrate our daily time series (2019 - present) with existing annual inventories to construct a consistent 2000 - 2024 emissions time series for 30 provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan due to data availability). Based on this dataset, we further develop a moving-window Mann-Kendall trend test algorithm to detect the peak status and confirm its robustness through sensitivity tests, which systematically characterizes provincial emission trajectories and classifies provinces into three peaking-status categories. The results show that by 2024, two provinces (Beijing and Jilin) are in a post-peak decline phase, 15 provinces are still rising, and the remaining 13 provinces exhibit a volatile or uncertain peak phase. The provinces that have peaked or are fluctuating form a northeast-southwest belt, whereas most provinces in the southeast and northwest are on a rising trajectory. The attribution analysis reveals that, although provinces approaching a plateau are increasingly driven by energy structure shifts, emissions decline in several northeastern and industrial provinces is linked to population loss or economic slowdown, indicating the risks of passive rather than structural decarbonization. Overall, our near-real-time diagnostic framework provides a transferable approach for continuous monitoring of subnational emissions stages, offering timely evidence for China’s progress toward peaking and informing broader high-frequency monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) efforts.
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