Freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility assessment and its future development on the seasonally frozen ground of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under warming-humidifying climate
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Exploring freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under warming-humidifying climate is greatly important for preventing and mitigating the risks of landslide hazards on engineering facilities. This study proposed a random forest-based freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility assessment model, where annual rainfall, annual average air temperature (AAAT), slope gradient, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, lithology, and plan curvature were fully considered. Selecting a study area of 324 km2 on the seasonally frozen ground (SFG) of QTP with 1059 freeze-thaw landslides, the model accuracy was validated. Low, moderate, high, and very high susceptibility zones were precisely classified, which accounted for 27.0, 27.5, 28.3, and 17.2%, respectively. Furthermore, its future development was explored under warming, humidifying, and warming-humidifying climates. Results indicated that when the AAAT or annual rainfall increased by 1.16 °C or 20 mm, both high and very high susceptibility zones increased by 2.0 or 1.0%, respectively. When AAAT and annual rainfall simultaneously increased by 1.16 °C and 20 mm, a higher increase in the high and very high susceptibility zones of 2.8% occurred. It was noteworthy that climate warming transitioned low and moderate susceptibility zones into high and very high susceptibility zones. These areas where freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility changed featured the AAAT of 4.29–6.15 °C, annual rainfall of 528.9–552.3 mm, slope gradient of 16–25°, and elevation of 3750-3940 m. Compared to climate warming, the humidifying climate and warming-humidifying climate expanded moderate susceptibility zones, and areas where freeze-thaw landslide susceptibility changed featured the gentler slope gradients of 8–16°. This study can provide a better guidance for safe engineering constructions influenced by freeze-thaw landslides on the QTP.
期刊介绍：
Cold Regions Science and Technology is an international journal dealing with the science and technical problems of cold environments in both the polar regions and more temperate locations. It includes fundamental aspects of cryospheric sciences which have applications for cold regions problems as well as engineering topics which relate to the cryosphere.
Emphasis is given to applied science with broad coverage of the physical and mechanical aspects of ice (including glaciers and sea ice), snow and snow avalanches, ice-water systems, ice-bonded soils and permafrost.
Relevant aspects of Earth science, materials science, offshore and river ice engineering are also of primary interest. These include icing of ships and structures as well as trafficability in cold environments. Technological advances for cold regions in research, development, and engineering practice are relevant to the journal. Theoretical papers must include a detailed discussion of the potential application of the theory to address cold regions problems. The journal serves a wide range of specialists, providing a medium for interdisciplinary communication and a convenient source of reference.
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