Evaluating clean electricity transition progress across UK political pledges and G7 countries

Abstract

The transition towards clean electricity is central to global decarbonisation. Countless metrics are used to assess national electricity transition efforts, which hinders understanding and comparison between nations or political party pledges. This study instead proposes three simple metrics: clean generation share, gross, and net carbon emissions intensity. It uses them to provide the first evaluation of the 2024 Clean Energy Mission (CEM) proposed by the UK's newly-elected Labour Government, which has strengthened ambition for wind and solar power capacity. We compare the CEM to previous political pledges, finding it could reduce national electricity generation emissions by 17 MtCO₂ in 2030, equivalent to a two percentage point increase in the UK's 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). We also use these metrics to compare past efforts and future pledges across the G7 countries, finding that the CEM progresses the UK from having the lowest share of clean electricity in 2010 to the highest by 2030. The UK must increase its pace of clean electricity uptake and decarbonisation by a factor of 1.5–2 to meet its 2030 targets; compared to a factor 4–6 acceleration required by Germany and the US. The paper provides an innovative, simple and replicable framework for assessing the impact of political pledges or national targets for the power sector, and for comparing efforts to decarbonise electricity between countries and over time.