Energy Strategy Reviews最新文献

Modeling the co-adoption dynamics of PV and heat pumps in Swiss residential buildings: Implications for policy and sustainability goals 模拟瑞士住宅建筑中光伏和热泵的共同采用动态：对政策和可持续发展目标的影响

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101573

Matteo Palucci , Jalomi Maayan Tardif , Vasco Medici , Giovanni Sansavini

The Swiss energy system is facing a paradigm shift as it strives to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, as well as phase out nuclear electricity production. This entails significant changes in the country’s energy landscape, including increased adoption of renewable energy technologies in the residential sector. To facilitate informed decision-making and planning by policymakers, this study introduces a system-dynamics model for the long-term adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) and heat pump (HP) technologies in Swiss residential buildings. Unlike conventional approaches, this framework considers the feedback loops and correlations between PV and HP adoption, while also accounting for building heterogeneity. Through scenario analyses, the model evaluates the impact of regulatory and financial policy interventions on the transition of the residential energy system. The results highlight the significant influence of policy measures on technology deployment rates, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions. They demonstrate that slight adjustments in current policy and regulatory framework could allow to safely reach PV deployment targets, but strong modifications are necessary to completely decarbonize the residential sector. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of the complex dynamics shaping residential energy transitions and offers valuable insights to support the formulation and implementation of effective energy strategies.

瑞士能源系统正面临模式转变，努力实现温室气体净零排放，并逐步淘汰核电生产。这意味着瑞士的能源格局将发生重大变化，包括在住宅领域更多地采用可再生能源技术。为便于决策者做出明智的决策和规划，本研究引入了一个系统动力学模型，用于分析瑞士住宅建筑长期采用太阳能光伏（PV）和热泵（HP）技术的情况。与传统方法不同，该框架考虑了光伏和热泵技术应用之间的反馈回路和相关性，同时还考虑了建筑的异质性。通过情景分析，该模型评估了监管和金融政策干预对住宅能源系统转型的影响。结果凸显了政策措施对技术部署率、能源需求和温室气体排放的重大影响。结果表明，对现行政策和监管框架稍作调整，就可以安全地实现光伏发电的部署目标，但要使住宅部门完全脱碳，则必须进行强有力的调整。这项研究有助于加深我们对影响住宅能源转型的复杂动态的理解，并为支持有效能源战略的制定和实施提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Concurrent challenges in practical operations and modeling of geological carbon-dioxide sequestration: Review of the Gorgon project and FluidFlower benchmark study 二氧化碳地质封存的实际操作和建模同时面临的挑战：Gorgon 项目和 FluidFlower 基准研究回顾

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101586

Ruud Weijermars

This study aims to serve as a reality check on whether the present-day (1) technology readiness level, and (2) storage capacity modeling, are adequate to claim that geological carbon-dioxide sequestration (GCS) projects are on a trajectory to help save the world from becoming a boiling greenhouse. The storage of CO₂ in subsurface formations is technically feasible, but serious challenges still arise when large quantities of CO₂ are injected. For example, important lessons can be gleaned from the world's largest CO₂-sequestration project at the Gorgon Field (Australia), which has run into a series of technical setbacks and now is over a decade behind schedule. Similarly, modeling of CO₂-fluid migration in the subsurface, which is at the basis of any practical GCS-project design-solution, remains challenging, as appears from careful analysis of a recent benchmark study effort by nine of the world's leading modeling groups. The limited transferability of FluidFlower modeling benchmark results and the technical challenges encountered in the Gorgon GCS project are highlighted. From the analysis, concurrent bottlenecks in technical operations and modeling capacity are identified, and suggestions are made for possible pathways to overcome these challenges.

本研究旨在对当今（1）技术准备水平和（2）封存能力模型进行现实检验，以确定地质二氧化碳封存（GCS）项目是否足以帮助拯救世界，使其免于成为沸腾的温室。在地下岩层中封存二氧化碳在技术上是可行的，但在注入大量二氧化碳时仍会遇到严峻的挑战。例如，我们可以从世界上最大的二氧化碳封存项目--澳大利亚戈尔甘油田项目--中吸取重要的经验教训，该项目在技术上遇到了一系列挫折，目前已落后原计划十多年。同样，二氧化碳流体在地下迁移的建模也是任何实际全球碳捕集与封存项目设计解决方案的基础，但正如对最近由九个世界领先建模小组进行的基准研究工作的仔细分析所显示的那样，建模工作仍然充满挑战。该研究强调了 FluidFlower 建模基准结果的有限可移植性，以及 Gorgon GCS 项目所遇到的技术挑战。通过分析，确定了技术操作和建模能力方面同时存在的瓶颈，并就克服这些挑战的可能途径提出了建议。

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引用次数: 0

Tying energy resiliance and digital upgradation of technology transformation of electric power system: Does financial flexibility matters? 将电力系统技术改造中的能源弹性和数字化升级结合起来：财务灵活性重要吗？

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101555

Zhi Liu , Ronghui Zhou , Zhang Jhang

As the energy sector undergoes rapid technological transformation, the resilience of electric power systems has become a focal point in the context of climate change and energy security. This paper examines the interplay between energy resilience and the digital upgradation of electric power systems in China, with a particular emphasis on the role of financial flexibility. Using panel data from 2005 to 2023 across 30 provinces in China, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model to investigate how financial flexibility—measured through capital access and adaptive financial strategies—affects the integration of digital technologies such as smart grids, renewable energy systems, and advanced monitoring infrastructures. Our findings demonstrate that financial flexibility significantly enhances the resilience of electric power systems by facilitating quicker adoption of digital technologies and enabling systems to better withstand external shocks, such as fluctuating energy demands and environmental stressors. The study offers policy insights, underscoring the importance of supportive financial mechanisms to accelerate the digital transformation and sustainability of China's energy infrastructure. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on energy resilience by highlighting the critical role of financial flexibility in enabling technological advancements within the power sector.

随着能源行业的快速技术转型，电力系统的抗灾能力已成为气候变化和能源安全背景下的一个焦点。本文研究了中国能源韧性与电力系统数字化升级之间的相互作用，并特别强调了财务灵活性的作用。利用 2005 年至 2023 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，我们采用广义矩法（GMM）模型研究了金融灵活性（通过资本获取和适应性金融策略来衡量）如何影响智能电网、可再生能源系统和先进监测基础设施等数字技术的整合。我们的研究结果表明，金融灵活性能促进更快地采用数字技术，使电力系统更好地抵御外部冲击，如能源需求波动和环境压力，从而大大增强电力系统的复原力。这项研究提供了政策见解，强调了支持性金融机制对于加快中国能源基础设施的数字化转型和可持续性的重要性。这项研究通过强调金融灵活性在推动电力行业技术进步方面的关键作用，为当前有关能源韧性的讨论做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: New evidence from jump-induced volatility 预测原油期货的波动性：跳跃诱发波动的新证据

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101588

Anupam Dutta , Elie Bouri

This paper proposes an augmented heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model with time-varying jumps to forecast the realized volatility (RV) of crude oil futures. Jump-induced volatility of crude oil futures is obtained from a GARCH-jump process, then used to augment the HAR model. The results based on both the in-sample and out-of-sample analyses suggest that jumps offer added information for forecasting the RV of crude oil futures, surpassing the incremental information contained in the crude oil implied volatility index (OVX). Various robustness tests confirm these findings. Our findings have key implications for energy market investors, risk managers, and policymakers.

本文提出了一个具有时变跳跃的增强异质自回归（HAR）模型来预测原油期货的已实现波动率（RV）。原油期货的跳跃诱导波动率是从 GARCH 跳跃过程中得到的，然后用来增强 HAR 模型。基于样本内和样本外分析的结果表明，跳跃为预测原油期货的 RV 提供了额外的信息，超过了原油隐含波动率指数（OVX）所包含的增量信息。各种稳健性测试证实了这些发现。我们的研究结果对能源市场投资者、风险管理者和政策制定者具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Survey of technologies, techniques, and applications for big data analytics in smart energy hub 智能能源枢纽中大数据分析的技术、工艺和应用调查

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101582

Magda I. El-Afifi , Bishoy E. Sedhom , Abdelfattah A. Eladl , Sanjeevikumar Padmanaban

The combination of energy hubs with advanced information and communication technology has resulted in the creation of an intelligent system referred to as a smart energy hub (SEH). The implementation of the SEH has facilitated the enhancement of the entire energy distribution system by enabling a two-way exchange of energy and information between utility providers and consumers. This has resulted in a system that is secure, efficient, and dependable. The significance and visibility of big data in the SEH are evident as a result of the growing accumulation of data quantities. A wide range of equipment and software work together to collect and use energy data. This includes tools used by both energy providers and customers, like smart meters, software for billing, and various monitoring and control systems. Additionally, sensors, computers, and communication networks play a crucial role in collecting and transmitting this data across the energy grid. Hence, big data plays a crucial role in the development of an enhanced SEH. This paper presents an introduction to the notion of SEH and its associated concepts, as well as the function of big data in the context of SEH. It also discusses the obstacles that big data encounters in the SEH domain and explores the potential opportunities that big data offers for SEH.

能源枢纽与先进的信息和通信技术相结合，形成了一个被称为智能能源枢纽（SEH）的智能系统。智能能源枢纽的实施促进了公用事业供应商和消费者之间能源和信息的双向交流，从而改善了整个能源分配系统。这样就形成了一个安全、高效和可靠的系统。随着数据量的不断积累，大数据在 SEH 中的重要性和可见性不言而喻。各种设备和软件共同收集和使用能源数据。这包括能源供应商和客户使用的工具，如智能电表、计费软件以及各种监测和控制系统。此外，传感器、计算机和通信网络在能源网中收集和传输这些数据方面也发挥着至关重要的作用。因此，大数据在开发增强型 SEH 方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本文介绍了 SEH 概念及其相关概念，以及大数据在 SEH 中的作用。本文还讨论了大数据在 SEH 领域遇到的障碍，并探讨了大数据为 SEH 带来的潜在机遇。

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引用次数: 0

An analysis of the rebound impact of energy consumption and the factors that influence it in China's agricultural productivity 能耗反弹对中国农业生产率的影响及因素分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101585

Yanyan Yin , Fatima Gulzar , Zokir Mamadiyarov , Assilova Aizhan , Ravi Shankar Yadav , Chang Chen

With China's agricultural sector being a major contributor to both the national economy and energy consumption, the rebound effect—the phenomenon where energy efficiency improvements lead to increased energy use—poses significant challenges to sustainable energy use. The motivation for this study stems from the need to understand the extent of this rebound impact and its underlying drivers, particularly in the context of China's agricultural modernization efforts. This study examines the rebound effect of energy consumption in China's agricultural productivity and the factors influencing it over the period from 1990 to 2023. Using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model, this research analyzes the relationship between energy consumption, agricultural productivity, and several influencing factors, including technological innovation, rural-urban migration, and financial development. The results reveal that (1) energy efficiency improvements have led to a significant rebound effect in China's agricultural sector, limiting potential energy savings, (2) technological advancements have mitigated the rebound effect to some extent, but the effect remains substantial, (3) rural-urban migration has contributed to labor shortages, increasing mechanization and energy demand, and (4) financial development has positively influenced both agricultural productivity and energy use, exacerbating the rebound effect. The study suggests that policymakers should focus on developing stricter energy efficiency standards and promoting technological innovations that reduce energy intensity in agriculture, while also addressing labor migration challenges to curb the rebound impact and achieve more sustainable agricultural growth.

中国的农业部门是国民经济和能源消耗的主要贡献者，反弹效应--能效提高导致能源使用增加的现象--对能源的可持续利用提出了重大挑战。本研究的动机在于需要了解这种反弹影响的程度及其内在驱动因素，尤其是在中国农业现代化努力的背景下。本研究探讨了 1990 年至 2023 年期间能源消耗对中国农业生产率的反弹效应及其影响因素。本研究采用广义矩法（GMM）模型，分析了能源消耗、农业生产率与若干影响因素（包括技术创新、城乡人口迁移和金融发展）之间的关系。研究结果表明：（1）能源效率的提高导致中国农业部门产生了显著的反弹效应，限制了潜在的能源节约；（2）技术进步在一定程度上缓解了反弹效应，但影响仍然很大；（3）农村人口向城市迁移导致劳动力短缺，增加了机械化程度和能源需求；（4）金融发展对农业生产率和能源使用都产生了积极影响，加剧了反弹效应。研究建议，决策者应重点制定更严格的能效标准，促进技术创新，降低农业能源强度，同时解决劳动力迁移难题，以抑制反弹影响，实现更可持续的农业增长。

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引用次数: 0

Avoiding false inter-zonal meshing in the clustering of a large-scale German power grid 在德国大规模电网集群中避免错误的区间网格划分

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101569

Katharina Esterl , Carlos Andrés Epia Realpe , Ulf Philipp Müller

The ongoing transformation towards a sector-coupled energy system based on renewable generation leads to more complex grid-based energy system models. It is a crucial task to reduce the models’ complexities in order to keep optimisation problems tractable while at the same time generating appropriate results. This work adds a Dijkstra’s algorithm to a commonly used k-means Clustering method to reduce the spatial complexity of a German transmission and sub-transmission grid model. The novel approach leads to more accurate results while reaching faster calculation times. In particular, it successfully avoids false inter-zonal meshing. Consequently, the more accurate modelling of inter-cluster connections results in up to 41% higher grid expansion needs and significantly changed spatial allocations of network and storage expansion. Where geographical or political borders (e.g. the former inner-German border) have led to scarcely interconnected grid topologies (especially on the sub-transmission grid level), the impact is particularly high. The presented work follows open-source and open-data principles.

目前正在向基于可再生能源发电的部门耦合能源系统转变，这导致基于电网的能源系统模型变得更加复杂。如何降低模型的复杂性，以保持优化问题的可操作性，同时产生适当的结果，是一项至关重要的任务。这项工作将 Dijkstra 算法添加到常用的 k-means 聚类方法中，以降低德国输电和分输电网模型的空间复杂性。这种新方法可获得更精确的结果，同时缩短计算时间。特别是，它成功地避免了错误的区间网格划分。因此，更精确的集群间连接建模可使电网扩容需求增加 41%，并显著改变电网和储能扩容的空间分配。在地理或政治边界（如前内德边界）导致电网拓扑（尤其是在次输电网层面）几乎不互联的地方，这种影响尤其严重。本报告遵循开源和开放数据原则。

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引用次数: 0

Energy consumption, technological innovation, and economic growth in BRICS: A GMM panel VAR framework analysis 金砖国家的能源消耗、技术创新和经济增长：GMM 面板 VAR 框架分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101587

Muhammad Khalid Anser , Sajid Ali , Muhammad Umair , Rubab Javid , Sanjar Mirzaliev

The growing interdependence between environmental resources, financial development, technological advancements, and energy consumption poses significant challenges for sustainable growth in emerging economies. This study investigates these dynamics in the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) from 1990 to 2023 using the GMM panel VAR framework, with the aim of understanding how these factors interact and shape economic outcomes. The analysis shows that environmental rents positively impact financial growth, countering the traditional "resource curse" belief. Technological innovation is negatively linked to both economic growth and environmental sustainability, while energy consumption is positively correlated with economic growth and exhibits a weak correlation with the environment. Furthermore, primary energy consumption is strongly connected to resource utilization and financial growth, although technological advancements negatively affect this relationship. Causality tests reveal mutual influences between energy consumption and technological innovation, alongside unidirectional effects of natural resources on financial and technological growth. Policy implications underscore the need for BRICS nations to balance resource management and technological progress to foster sustainable economic and environmental development.

环境资源、金融发展、技术进步和能源消耗之间日益相互依存，给新兴经济体的可持续增长带来了重大挑战。本研究利用 GMM 面板 VAR 框架研究了金砖国家（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非）从 1990 年到 2023 年的这些动态变化，旨在了解这些因素如何相互作用并影响经济结果。分析表明，环境租金对金融增长有积极影响，这与传统的 "资源诅咒 "观点相反。技术创新与经济增长和环境可持续性都呈负相关，而能源消耗与经济增长呈正相关，与环境的相关性较弱。此外，一次能源消耗量与资源利用率和财政增长密切相关，尽管技术进步对这种关系产生了负面影响。因果检验显示，能源消耗与技术创新之间存在相互影响，自然资源对金融和技术增长也存在单向影响。政策影响强调金砖国家需要平衡资源管理和技术进步，以促进经济和环境的可持续发展。

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引用次数: 0

Carbon footprint valuation of Bangladesh transportation under environmental regulations 环境法规下的孟加拉国运输碳足迹评估

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101576

Guangwei Zhang, Muhammad Yousaf Raza, Li Dong-sheng

The study detects and analyzes the driving factors underlying the CO₂ emission variations in the transport sector of Bangladesh, including the carbon coefficient, fossil fuel ratio, energy use per unit turnover, turnover per unit of transport value-added, and value-added of transport from 2003 to 2021. The objective is to analyze the transportation (i.e., land, water and air) factor's effects under the logarithmic mean Divisia index, Tapio index, CO₂ mitigation potential methods, and their decouplings. The results show that: (i) value-added was the main CO₂ driving factor, while CO₂ coefficient, fuel substitution, energy use, and turnover value mitigated CO₂ emissions. (ii) Land and water transport seemed to be the main CO₂ producers and meaningfully contributed to the economy. (iii) Only two decoupling states─weak decoupling and strong decoupling appeared, in which economic growth was the significant turn towards the best state. (iv) Sub-transportation presented significant and strong decouplings in the maximum intervals. (iv) The carbon mitigation rate was observed at 0.26 % during the period in which the economic structural factor was the main factor contributing to declining CO₂ emissions. Finally, the study proposes frameworks that will support policymakers in estimating energy and technological policies for climate and economic sustainability.

本研究发现并分析了孟加拉国运输部门二氧化碳排放量变化的驱动因素，包括 2003 年至 2021 年期间的碳系数、化石燃料比率、单位营业额能源使用量、单位运输增值营业额和运输增值。目的是分析迪维西亚指数对数平均值、塔皮奥指数、二氧化碳减排潜力方法及其解耦作用下的交通（即陆路、水路和航空）因素的影响。结果表明(i) 附加值是主要的二氧化碳驱动因素，而二氧化碳系数、燃料替代、能源使用和营业额则可减轻二氧化碳排放。(ii) 陆路和水路运输似乎是主要的二氧化碳产生者，并对经济做出了有意义的贡献。(iii) 只出现了两种脱钩状态--弱脱钩和强脱钩，其中经济增长是向最佳状态的重要转折。(iv) 在最大区间内，次级运输出现了明显的强脱钩。(iv) 在经济结构因素成为二氧化碳排放量下降的主要因素期间，碳减排率为 0.26%。最后，本研究提出了一些框架，这些框架将支持政策制定者估算能源和技术政策，以实现气候和经济的可持续性。

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引用次数: 0

Gender and authorship in energy studies: Is there an impact? 能源研究中的性别与作者身份：有影响吗？

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101581

Péter Vakhal , Kateryna Yakovenko , Matúš Mišík , Veronika Oravcová , Raffaele Mattera

Although gender inequality has been examined and debated as one of the most prominent challenges within the scientific community, relatively little attention has been paid to gender differences with regard to authorship. The aim of this paper is to identify whether gender differences exist with respect to the impact factors of the journals in which male and female authors publish their research. Existing studies use machine-assisted tools to determine author gender. Given the limitations of this type of approach to data collection and coding, we opted for a manual approach that ensured both the inclusion of a high number of journals and greater precision in determining author gender. This paper focuses on authors who published articles on a concrete area of research (energy) in a specific region (Central and Eastern Europe) over a 14-year period (2004–2017). Our study identified a gender bias within energy-related research: male authors (or male-dominated teams) publish more often and on average in journals with higher impact factors than female authors.

尽管性别不平等已作为科学界最突出的挑战之一受到研究和讨论，但人们对作者身份方面的性别差异关注相对较少。本文旨在确定男女作者发表研究成果的期刊影响因子是否存在性别差异。现有研究使用机器辅助工具来确定作者性别。鉴于这种数据收集和编码方法的局限性，我们选择了人工方法，这样既能确保纳入大量期刊，又能更精确地确定作者性别。本文重点关注在 14 年内（2004-2017 年）在特定地区（中东欧）发表具体研究领域（能源）文章的作者。我们的研究发现了能源相关研究中的性别偏见：与女性作者相比，男性作者（或男性主导的团队）在影响因子更高的期刊上发表文章的频率更高，平均影响因子也更高。

引用次数: 0