Energy Strategy Reviews最新文献

Modeling the co-adoption dynamics of PV and heat pumps in Swiss residential buildings: Implications for policy and sustainability goals 模拟瑞士住宅建筑中光伏和热泵的共同采用动态：对政策和可持续发展目标的影响

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101573

Matteo Palucci , Jalomi Maayan Tardif , Vasco Medici , Giovanni Sansavini

The Swiss energy system is facing a paradigm shift as it strives to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, as well as phase out nuclear electricity production. This entails significant changes in the country’s energy landscape, including increased adoption of renewable energy technologies in the residential sector. To facilitate informed decision-making and planning by policymakers, this study introduces a system-dynamics model for the long-term adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) and heat pump (HP) technologies in Swiss residential buildings. Unlike conventional approaches, this framework considers the feedback loops and correlations between PV and HP adoption, while also accounting for building heterogeneity. Through scenario analyses, the model evaluates the impact of regulatory and financial policy interventions on the transition of the residential energy system. The results highlight the significant influence of policy measures on technology deployment rates, energy demand, and greenhouse gas emissions. They demonstrate that slight adjustments in current policy and regulatory framework could allow to safely reach PV deployment targets, but strong modifications are necessary to completely decarbonize the residential sector. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of the complex dynamics shaping residential energy transitions and offers valuable insights to support the formulation and implementation of effective energy strategies.

瑞士能源系统正面临模式转变，努力实现温室气体净零排放，并逐步淘汰核电生产。这意味着瑞士的能源格局将发生重大变化，包括在住宅领域更多地采用可再生能源技术。为便于决策者做出明智的决策和规划，本研究引入了一个系统动力学模型，用于分析瑞士住宅建筑长期采用太阳能光伏（PV）和热泵（HP）技术的情况。与传统方法不同，该框架考虑了光伏和热泵技术应用之间的反馈回路和相关性，同时还考虑了建筑的异质性。通过情景分析，该模型评估了监管和金融政策干预对住宅能源系统转型的影响。结果凸显了政策措施对技术部署率、能源需求和温室气体排放的重大影响。结果表明，对现行政策和监管框架稍作调整，就可以安全地实现光伏发电的部署目标，但要使住宅部门完全脱碳，则必须进行强有力的调整。这项研究有助于加深我们对影响住宅能源转型的复杂动态的理解，并为支持有效能源战略的制定和实施提供了宝贵的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Developing and maintaining a policy-focussed, comprehensive, energy systems model in a developing country context: The case of SATIM in South Africa 在发展中国家开发和维护以政策为重点的综合能源系统模型：南非 SATIM 案例

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101594

Alison Hughes , Tara Caetano , Guy Cunliffe , Faaiqa Hartley , Andrew Marquard , Bryce McCall , Bruno Merven

South Africa faces a myriad of energy-related challenges, including severe constraints in electricity supply, a rising cost of electricity to consumers, high levels of energy poverty, and a reliance on coal in both energy supply and demand sectors. These challenges exist in a context of significant development imperatives and commitments to decarbonise. This paper presents the South African TIMES model (SATIM), a comprehensive energy systems model developed and maintained over two decades, which has proved useful in informing energy and climate policy in South Africa. We explore how SATIM has been adapted to overcome data limitations and address unique and complex policy, development and broader socio-economic challenges faced by developing countries. The model's evolution, structure, and applications are discussed, highlighting its role in providing evidence-based insights for critical policy decisions. We argue that SATIM's long-term development, flexibility, and integration with other models offer valuable lessons for energy systems modelling in developing country contexts.

南非面临着无数与能源有关的挑战，包括电力供应严重紧张、消费者用电成本上升、能源贫困程度高以及能源供应和需求部门对煤炭的依赖。这些挑战都是在必须实现重大发展和承诺去碳化的背景下存在的。本文介绍了南非 TIMES 模型 (SATIM)，这是一个经过二十多年开发和维护的综合能源系统模型，已被证明有助于为南非的能源和气候政策提供信息。我们探讨了如何对 SATIM 进行调整，以克服数据限制，应对发展中国家面临的独特而复杂的政策、发展和更广泛的社会经济挑战。我们讨论了该模型的演变、结构和应用，强调了它在为关键决策提供循证见解方面的作用。我们认为，SATIM 的长期发展、灵活性以及与其他模型的整合为发展中国家的能源系统建模提供了宝贵的经验。

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引用次数: 0

Concurrent challenges in practical operations and modeling of geological carbon-dioxide sequestration: Review of the Gorgon project and FluidFlower benchmark study 二氧化碳地质封存的实际操作和建模同时面临的挑战：Gorgon 项目和 FluidFlower 基准研究回顾

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101586

Ruud Weijermars

This study aims to serve as a reality check on whether the present-day (1) technology readiness level, and (2) storage capacity modeling, are adequate to claim that geological carbon-dioxide sequestration (GCS) projects are on a trajectory to help save the world from becoming a boiling greenhouse. The storage of CO₂ in subsurface formations is technically feasible, but serious challenges still arise when large quantities of CO₂ are injected. For example, important lessons can be gleaned from the world's largest CO₂-sequestration project at the Gorgon Field (Australia), which has run into a series of technical setbacks and now is over a decade behind schedule. Similarly, modeling of CO₂-fluid migration in the subsurface, which is at the basis of any practical GCS-project design-solution, remains challenging, as appears from careful analysis of a recent benchmark study effort by nine of the world's leading modeling groups. The limited transferability of FluidFlower modeling benchmark results and the technical challenges encountered in the Gorgon GCS project are highlighted. From the analysis, concurrent bottlenecks in technical operations and modeling capacity are identified, and suggestions are made for possible pathways to overcome these challenges.

本研究旨在对当今（1）技术准备水平和（2）封存能力模型进行现实检验，以确定地质二氧化碳封存（GCS）项目是否足以帮助拯救世界，使其免于成为沸腾的温室。在地下岩层中封存二氧化碳在技术上是可行的，但在注入大量二氧化碳时仍会遇到严峻的挑战。例如，我们可以从世界上最大的二氧化碳封存项目--澳大利亚戈尔甘油田项目--中吸取重要的经验教训，该项目在技术上遇到了一系列挫折，目前已落后原计划十多年。同样，二氧化碳流体在地下迁移的建模也是任何实际全球碳捕集与封存项目设计解决方案的基础，但正如对最近由九个世界领先建模小组进行的基准研究工作的仔细分析所显示的那样，建模工作仍然充满挑战。该研究强调了 FluidFlower 建模基准结果的有限可移植性，以及 Gorgon GCS 项目所遇到的技术挑战。通过分析，确定了技术操作和建模能力方面同时存在的瓶颈，并就克服这些挑战的可能途径提出了建议。

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引用次数: 0

Optimal timing of phasing out producer subsidies towards carbon neutrality: Interaction between fossil energy extraction and environmental uncertainties

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101598

Xu Zhao , Zhi Li , Jianye Liu

Since subsidies for fossil-fuel producers entail “carbon locked-in” risks, phasing out the subsidies is widely agreed to be critical for progress on climate change towards carbon neutrality. However, due to the uncertainties and irreversibilities associated with environmental degradation and economic losses, delaying removal efforts allows us to benefit from cheaper abatement options and less total abatements owning to self-regeneration of pollution stock. Therefore, whether the removal action should be taken currently or be delayed becomes vital for policy making. We develop a real option model of policy timing using a green social welfare as the objective, consisting of the standard Hotelling model of exhaustible resource extraction, and a stochastic state variable to capture uncertainties over the social costs of environmental damage. Analytic solutions are derived to show the implication of these uncertainties for policy adoption, and the results are presented: (i) a higher volatility of economic costs per emissions leads to a positive incentive for delaying removal in some bounds of uncertainties; (ii) amount of subsidies, pollution stocks, depletion of fossil fuel production and its marginal costs have negative impacts on the timing threshold, which implies that adopting currently is better than waiting; and (iii) discount rate increases the option value of delaying the policy. Our study provides a valuable framework to determine the energy and environmental policy timing with uncertainties for regulators.

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引用次数: 0

Tying energy resiliance and digital upgradation of technology transformation of electric power system: Does financial flexibility matters? 将电力系统技术改造中的能源弹性和数字化升级结合起来：财务灵活性重要吗？

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101555

Zhi Liu , Ronghui Zhou , Zhang Jhang

As the energy sector undergoes rapid technological transformation, the resilience of electric power systems has become a focal point in the context of climate change and energy security. This paper examines the interplay between energy resilience and the digital upgradation of electric power systems in China, with a particular emphasis on the role of financial flexibility. Using panel data from 2005 to 2023 across 30 provinces in China, we employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model to investigate how financial flexibility—measured through capital access and adaptive financial strategies—affects the integration of digital technologies such as smart grids, renewable energy systems, and advanced monitoring infrastructures. Our findings demonstrate that financial flexibility significantly enhances the resilience of electric power systems by facilitating quicker adoption of digital technologies and enabling systems to better withstand external shocks, such as fluctuating energy demands and environmental stressors. The study offers policy insights, underscoring the importance of supportive financial mechanisms to accelerate the digital transformation and sustainability of China's energy infrastructure. This research contributes to the ongoing discourse on energy resilience by highlighting the critical role of financial flexibility in enabling technological advancements within the power sector.

随着能源行业的快速技术转型，电力系统的抗灾能力已成为气候变化和能源安全背景下的一个焦点。本文研究了中国能源韧性与电力系统数字化升级之间的相互作用，并特别强调了财务灵活性的作用。利用 2005 年至 2023 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，我们采用广义矩法（GMM）模型研究了金融灵活性（通过资本获取和适应性金融策略来衡量）如何影响智能电网、可再生能源系统和先进监测基础设施等数字技术的整合。我们的研究结果表明，金融灵活性能促进更快地采用数字技术，使电力系统更好地抵御外部冲击，如能源需求波动和环境压力，从而大大增强电力系统的复原力。这项研究提供了政策见解，强调了支持性金融机制对于加快中国能源基础设施的数字化转型和可持续性的重要性。这项研究通过强调金融灵活性在推动电力行业技术进步方面的关键作用，为当前有关能源韧性的讨论做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: New evidence from jump-induced volatility 预测原油期货的波动性：跳跃诱发波动的新证据

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101588

Anupam Dutta , Elie Bouri

This paper proposes an augmented heterogenous autoregressive (HAR) model with time-varying jumps to forecast the realized volatility (RV) of crude oil futures. Jump-induced volatility of crude oil futures is obtained from a GARCH-jump process, then used to augment the HAR model. The results based on both the in-sample and out-of-sample analyses suggest that jumps offer added information for forecasting the RV of crude oil futures, surpassing the incremental information contained in the crude oil implied volatility index (OVX). Various robustness tests confirm these findings. Our findings have key implications for energy market investors, risk managers, and policymakers.

本文提出了一个具有时变跳跃的增强异质自回归（HAR）模型来预测原油期货的已实现波动率（RV）。原油期货的跳跃诱导波动率是从 GARCH 跳跃过程中得到的，然后用来增强 HAR 模型。基于样本内和样本外分析的结果表明，跳跃为预测原油期货的 RV 提供了额外的信息，超过了原油隐含波动率指数（OVX）所包含的增量信息。各种稳健性测试证实了这些发现。我们的研究结果对能源市场投资者、风险管理者和政策制定者具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Harnessing artificial intelligence for energy strategies: Advancing global economic policies and hydrogen production in the transition to a low-carbon economy 利用人工智能制定能源战略：在向低碳经济转型过程中推进全球经济政策和氢气生产

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101568

Wenjia Hou , Xingchen Pan , Yang Pu , Rui Ma , Asif Saleem

The need for non-conventional energy forms is another factor that has been pointing to the need for Fortran's s-ports for new forms of energy and indeed transportable energy that carriers such as Hydrogen. This investigation employs artificial intelligence to promote international economic policies and hydrogen manufacturing, defining hydrogen export competitiveness globally from 1991 to 2024. An overall index constructed from twenty-one benchmarks in four areas: financial and economic viability, political and regulatory position, industrial experience, and resource availability and prospects were created and further tested with experts' interviews and questionnaires. AI specifically played a very important role in data analysis and the index in assigning the appropriate weights and providing the right evaluation. This paper reveals the countries that have a competitive hydrogen industry and gives policy suggestions for improving the generation and exportation productivity of Hydrogen. Through this integrated project development approach, it is intended to spark the hydrogen economy and renewable energy, including environmentally sustainable uses. As a result, by employing AI to develop the energy strategy, this research provides practical recommendations for creating a low-carbon economy, filling the existing gap in the issue of limited sustainable energy sources and contributing to the development of the global economy. The purpose is to provide specific guidance for the effective stimulation of the hydrogen market in the context of global changes in the renewable energy area and sustainable development.

对非常规能源形式的需求是另一个因素，它表明需要 Fortran's s 端口来获取新形式的能源，以及氢气等可运输的能源载体。本研究利用人工智能促进国际经济政策和氢气制造，定义了 1991 年至 2024 年全球氢气出口竞争力。由财政和经济可行性、政治和监管地位、工业经验以及资源可用性和前景四个领域的 21 个基准构建了一个总体指数，并通过专家访谈和问卷调查进行了进一步测试。人工智能在数据分析和指数中发挥了非常重要的作用，为指数分配了适当的权重并提供了正确的评价。本文揭示了氢能产业具有竞争力的国家，并提出了提高氢能生产和出口生产力的政策建议。通过这种综合项目开发方法，旨在激发氢经济和可再生能源，包括环境可持续利用。因此，通过采用人工智能来制定能源战略，本研究为创建低碳经济提供了切实可行的建议，填补了在有限的可持续能源问题上的现有空白，并为全球经济的发展做出了贡献。目的是在全球可再生能源领域的变化和可持续发展的背景下，为有效刺激氢气市场提供具体指导。

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引用次数: 0

Survey of technologies, techniques, and applications for big data analytics in smart energy hub 智能能源枢纽中大数据分析的技术、工艺和应用调查

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101582

Magda I. El-Afifi , Bishoy E. Sedhom , Abdelfattah A. Eladl , Sanjeevikumar Padmanaban

The combination of energy hubs with advanced information and communication technology has resulted in the creation of an intelligent system referred to as a smart energy hub (SEH). The implementation of the SEH has facilitated the enhancement of the entire energy distribution system by enabling a two-way exchange of energy and information between utility providers and consumers. This has resulted in a system that is secure, efficient, and dependable. The significance and visibility of big data in the SEH are evident as a result of the growing accumulation of data quantities. A wide range of equipment and software work together to collect and use energy data. This includes tools used by both energy providers and customers, like smart meters, software for billing, and various monitoring and control systems. Additionally, sensors, computers, and communication networks play a crucial role in collecting and transmitting this data across the energy grid. Hence, big data plays a crucial role in the development of an enhanced SEH. This paper presents an introduction to the notion of SEH and its associated concepts, as well as the function of big data in the context of SEH. It also discusses the obstacles that big data encounters in the SEH domain and explores the potential opportunities that big data offers for SEH.

能源枢纽与先进的信息和通信技术相结合，形成了一个被称为智能能源枢纽（SEH）的智能系统。智能能源枢纽的实施促进了公用事业供应商和消费者之间能源和信息的双向交流，从而改善了整个能源分配系统。这样就形成了一个安全、高效和可靠的系统。随着数据量的不断积累，大数据在 SEH 中的重要性和可见性不言而喻。各种设备和软件共同收集和使用能源数据。这包括能源供应商和客户使用的工具，如智能电表、计费软件以及各种监测和控制系统。此外，传感器、计算机和通信网络在能源网中收集和传输这些数据方面也发挥着至关重要的作用。因此，大数据在开发增强型 SEH 方面发挥着至关重要的作用。本文介绍了 SEH 概念及其相关概念，以及大数据在 SEH 中的作用。本文还讨论了大数据在 SEH 领域遇到的障碍，并探讨了大数据为 SEH 带来的潜在机遇。

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引用次数: 0

An analysis of the rebound impact of energy consumption and the factors that influence it in China's agricultural productivity 能耗反弹对中国农业生产率的影响及因素分析

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101585

Yanyan Yin , Fatima Gulzar , Zokir Mamadiyarov , Assilova Aizhan , Ravi Shankar Yadav , Chang Chen

With China's agricultural sector being a major contributor to both the national economy and energy consumption, the rebound effect—the phenomenon where energy efficiency improvements lead to increased energy use—poses significant challenges to sustainable energy use. The motivation for this study stems from the need to understand the extent of this rebound impact and its underlying drivers, particularly in the context of China's agricultural modernization efforts. This study examines the rebound effect of energy consumption in China's agricultural productivity and the factors influencing it over the period from 1990 to 2023. Using a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model, this research analyzes the relationship between energy consumption, agricultural productivity, and several influencing factors, including technological innovation, rural-urban migration, and financial development. The results reveal that (1) energy efficiency improvements have led to a significant rebound effect in China's agricultural sector, limiting potential energy savings, (2) technological advancements have mitigated the rebound effect to some extent, but the effect remains substantial, (3) rural-urban migration has contributed to labor shortages, increasing mechanization and energy demand, and (4) financial development has positively influenced both agricultural productivity and energy use, exacerbating the rebound effect. The study suggests that policymakers should focus on developing stricter energy efficiency standards and promoting technological innovations that reduce energy intensity in agriculture, while also addressing labor migration challenges to curb the rebound impact and achieve more sustainable agricultural growth.

中国的农业部门是国民经济和能源消耗的主要贡献者，反弹效应--能效提高导致能源使用增加的现象--对能源的可持续利用提出了重大挑战。本研究的动机在于需要了解这种反弹影响的程度及其内在驱动因素，尤其是在中国农业现代化努力的背景下。本研究探讨了 1990 年至 2023 年期间能源消耗对中国农业生产率的反弹效应及其影响因素。本研究采用广义矩法（GMM）模型，分析了能源消耗、农业生产率与若干影响因素（包括技术创新、城乡人口迁移和金融发展）之间的关系。研究结果表明：（1）能源效率的提高导致中国农业部门产生了显著的反弹效应，限制了潜在的能源节约；（2）技术进步在一定程度上缓解了反弹效应，但影响仍然很大；（3）农村人口向城市迁移导致劳动力短缺，增加了机械化程度和能源需求；（4）金融发展对农业生产率和能源使用都产生了积极影响，加剧了反弹效应。研究建议，决策者应重点制定更严格的能效标准，促进技术创新，降低农业能源强度，同时解决劳动力迁移难题，以抑制反弹影响，实现更可持续的农业增长。

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引用次数: 0

Avoiding false inter-zonal meshing in the clustering of a large-scale German power grid 在德国大规模电网集群中避免错误的区间网格划分

IF 7.9 2区工程技术 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Strategy Reviews

Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101569

Katharina Esterl , Carlos Andrés Epia Realpe , Ulf Philipp Müller

The ongoing transformation towards a sector-coupled energy system based on renewable generation leads to more complex grid-based energy system models. It is a crucial task to reduce the models’ complexities in order to keep optimisation problems tractable while at the same time generating appropriate results. This work adds a Dijkstra’s algorithm to a commonly used k-means Clustering method to reduce the spatial complexity of a German transmission and sub-transmission grid model. The novel approach leads to more accurate results while reaching faster calculation times. In particular, it successfully avoids false inter-zonal meshing. Consequently, the more accurate modelling of inter-cluster connections results in up to 41% higher grid expansion needs and significantly changed spatial allocations of network and storage expansion. Where geographical or political borders (e.g. the former inner-German border) have led to scarcely interconnected grid topologies (especially on the sub-transmission grid level), the impact is particularly high. The presented work follows open-source and open-data principles.

目前正在向基于可再生能源发电的部门耦合能源系统转变，这导致基于电网的能源系统模型变得更加复杂。如何降低模型的复杂性，以保持优化问题的可操作性，同时产生适当的结果，是一项至关重要的任务。这项工作将 Dijkstra 算法添加到常用的 k-means 聚类方法中，以降低德国输电和分输电网模型的空间复杂性。这种新方法可获得更精确的结果，同时缩短计算时间。特别是，它成功地避免了错误的区间网格划分。因此，更精确的集群间连接建模可使电网扩容需求增加 41%，并显著改变电网和储能扩容的空间分配。在地理或政治边界（如前内德边界）导致电网拓扑（尤其是在次输电网层面）几乎不互联的地方，这种影响尤其严重。本报告遵循开源和开放数据原则。

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引用次数: 0