Increasing heat waves frequencies over India during post-El Niño spring and early summer seasons

Abstract

The increasing frequency of extreme Heat Waves (HWs) has generated significant societal impacts in recent years. This study used different observational datasets to investigate the HW characteristics over India during the post-El Niño spring and early summer seasons (April to June; AMJ). Analysis suggests that HW days are more prevalent over India, predominantly increased in south-central and northwest India, during the decaying phase of strong El Niño years. It is found that anomalous anticyclone circulation accompanied by high pressure extending from the Western North Pacific region towards the Bay of Bengal and India is responsible for enhanced HW days and intensity during the AMJ of strong El Niño decay years. This anomalous anticyclone-induced downdraft reduces the specific humidity in the lower troposphere, leading to decreased cloud cover over India. As a result, shortwave radiation is enhanced at the surface, which causes abnormal HWs over India. During the decaying phase of strong El Niño years, the HW days over India contributed to an increase in the frequency of Discomfort Index hours (above 28 °C), maximum temperatures exceeding 40 °C (hours per day), and Universal Thermal Climate Index days above 38 °C and 46 °C during the spring and early summer months, especially in the East Coast, central, and northwestern parts of India. Thus, proper prediction of large-scale atmospheric circulation over the Indo-western Pacific region during El Niño can help to predict the HW conditions three months in advance. This would help to implement suitable adaptation measures and put into practice strong mitigation policies to limit the increased risk of such events during AMJ of El Niño decay years.