The trends of non-accidental mortality burden attributed to compound hot-dry events in China and its provinces in a global warming world

IF 10.3 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Environment International Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI:10.1016/j.envint.2024.108977

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Abstract

Background

Global warming has provoked more co-occurrence of hot extreme and dry extreme, namely compound hot-dry events (CHDEs). However, their health impacts have seldom been investigated. This study aimed to characterize CHDEs and assess its mortality burden in China from 1990 to 2100.

Methods

CHDEs were defined as a day when daily maximum temperature > its 90th percentile and Standardized Precipitation Index < its 50th percentile. A two-stage approach, including a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and a multivariate meta-analysis, was used to estimate exposure–response associations of CHDEs with mortality in 358 counties/districts during 2006–2017 in China, which was then applied to assess the national mortality burden attributable to CHDEs from 1990 to 2100.

Findings

We observed a significant increasing trend of CHDEs in China until mid-21st century, and then flatted, while the duration and intensity of CHDEs continuously increased across the 21st century. CHDEs were much riskier (ER=17.82 %, 95 %CI: 14.17 %-21.60 %) than independent hot events (ER=5.86 %,95 %CI: -0.04 %,12.45 %) or dry events (ER=0.07 %,95 %CI: -1.22 %, 1.38 %), and there was significantly additive interaction between hot events and dry events (AP=0.10,95 %CI: 0.04, 0.16). Females (ER=24.28 %, 95 %CI: 19.21 %-29.56 %), the elderly (ER=23.28 %, 95 %CI: 18.23 %-28.55 %), and people living in humid area (ER=18.98 %, 95 %CI: 15.08 %–23.02 %) had higher mortality risks than their counterparts. Mortality burden attributed to CHDEs significantly increased during historical observation and became stable since mid-21st century in China.

Interpretation

CHDEs would significantly increase mortality with higher risk for females, the elderly and people living in humid areas. Mortality burden has significantly increased during historical observation and will keep relatively steady since mid-21st century.

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全球变暖背景下中国及各省干热复合事件导致的非意外死亡负担的变化趋势

背景全球变暖导致更多的极端高温和极端干旱同时发生，即干热复合事件（CHDE）。然而，很少有人研究过它们对健康的影响。本研究旨在描述 CHDEs 的特征，并评估其在 1990 年至 2100 年间给中国带来的死亡负担。研究采用两阶段方法，包括分布式滞后非线性模型（DLNM）和多变量荟萃分析，估算了2006-2017年间中国358个县/区的CHDEs与死亡率的暴露-反应关系，并据此评估了1990-2100年间CHDEs导致的全国死亡率负担。与独立的高温事件（ER=5.86%,95%CI：-0.04%,12.45%）或干旱事件（ER=0.07%,95%CI：-1.22%,1.38%）相比，CHDEs风险更高（ER=17.82%,95%CI：14.17%-21.60%），且高温事件与干旱事件之间存在显著的叠加交互作用（AP=0.10,95%CI：0.04,0.16）。女性（ER=24.28%，95%CI：19.21%-29.56%）、老年人（ER=23.28%，95%CI：18.23%-28.55%）和潮湿地区居民（ER=18.98%，95%CI：15.08%-23.02%）的死亡风险高于同龄人。在中国，CHDEs 导致的死亡率负担在历史观察期间显著增加，并在 21 世纪中叶后趋于稳定。在历史观察期间，死亡率负担明显增加，自 21 世纪中叶以来，死亡率负担将保持相对稳定。

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来源期刊

Environment International 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

21.90

自引率

3.40%

发文量

734

审稿时长

2.8 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Health publishes manuscripts focusing on critical aspects of environmental and occupational medicine, including studies in toxicology and epidemiology, to illuminate the human health implications of exposure to environmental hazards. The journal adopts an open-access model and practices open peer review. It caters to scientists and practitioners across all environmental science domains, directly or indirectly impacting human health and well-being. With a commitment to enhancing the prevention of environmentally-related health risks, Environmental Health serves as a public health journal for the community and scientists engaged in matters of public health significance concerning the environment.