{"title":"Reliability assessment of generation capacity in modern power systems via analytical methodologies","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.segan.2024.101509","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>With the recent transition to a low-carbon electrical power system (EPS), the large-scale utilization of renewable energy resources in electrical power generation introduces a substantial amount of uncertainty on the generation side of the EPS. This uncertainty, along with the inherent uncertainty of electricity demand, makes assessing generation reliability a very computationally intensive process. To enhance the computation efficiency of EPS generation reliability assessment, it is crucial to have an efficient probabilistic model of available generation capacities that strikes a balance between improved computational performance and model accuracy. In this paper, various probabilistic models are proposed to characterize the variability and uncertainty of conventional and renewable power generations (photovoltaic and wind). On the basis of these models, an analytical formulation of probabilistic reliability indices (RIs) is implemented. The computation time and accurate RIs values found using the Monte Carlo simulation method serve as the basis for reporting solving time improvements with corresponding losses in the accuracy of the RIs for different analytical methodologies. The results of multiple case studies of an EPS are presented, considering various combinations of conventional and renewable generation capacity, levels of renewable power penetration, and system reliability levels. The results indicate the practical implementation of analytical assessment methodologies compared to the simulation method in terms of accuracy and computational effort. This study is of immediate relevance and potential importance to operational reliability and generation expansion planning studies in EPSs.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":56142,"journal":{"name":"Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sustainable Energy Grids & Networks","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352467724002388","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
With the recent transition to a low-carbon electrical power system (EPS), the large-scale utilization of renewable energy resources in electrical power generation introduces a substantial amount of uncertainty on the generation side of the EPS. This uncertainty, along with the inherent uncertainty of electricity demand, makes assessing generation reliability a very computationally intensive process. To enhance the computation efficiency of EPS generation reliability assessment, it is crucial to have an efficient probabilistic model of available generation capacities that strikes a balance between improved computational performance and model accuracy. In this paper, various probabilistic models are proposed to characterize the variability and uncertainty of conventional and renewable power generations (photovoltaic and wind). On the basis of these models, an analytical formulation of probabilistic reliability indices (RIs) is implemented. The computation time and accurate RIs values found using the Monte Carlo simulation method serve as the basis for reporting solving time improvements with corresponding losses in the accuracy of the RIs for different analytical methodologies. The results of multiple case studies of an EPS are presented, considering various combinations of conventional and renewable generation capacity, levels of renewable power penetration, and system reliability levels. The results indicate the practical implementation of analytical assessment methodologies compared to the simulation method in terms of accuracy and computational effort. This study is of immediate relevance and potential importance to operational reliability and generation expansion planning studies in EPSs.
期刊介绍:
Sustainable Energy, Grids and Networks (SEGAN)is an international peer-reviewed publication for theoretical and applied research dealing with energy, information grids and power networks, including smart grids from super to micro grid scales. SEGAN welcomes papers describing fundamental advances in mathematical, statistical or computational methods with application to power and energy systems, as well as papers on applications, computation and modeling in the areas of electrical and energy systems with coupled information and communication technologies.