Integrating system dynamics to value chain analysis to address price volatility in the Indonesian chilli value chain

IF 6.8 1区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Food Policy Pub Date : 2024-08-31 DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102713
Yanti Nuraeni Muflikh , Carl Smith , Colin Brown , Nunung Kusnadi , Adhitya Marendra Kiloes , Ammar Abdul Aziz
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Abstract

The price volatility observed in agricultural value chains presents a significant socio-economic challenge, particularly for smallholder farmers. The issue of price volatility in agricultural value chains is complex due to the dynamic and interconnected nature of these value chains. The objective of this study is to integrate system dynamics with value chain analysis in order to address price volatility in the Indonesian chilli value chain. In order to ensure stakeholder engagement and enhance the robustness of the proposed solutions, a participatory approach will be employed. The utilisation of system dynamics enables the quantitative simulation of the inherent dynamics of the chilli value chain, thereby facilitating both ex-ante and ex-post assessment of policy interventions. A collaborative process with stakeholders was employed to develop, test, and validate a system dynamics model that operates at both provincial and national levels. The findings demonstrate that the model accurately replicates the price volatility observed in the Indonesian chilli market. The key factors contributing to this volatility are seasonal production, disorganised market governance and high postharvest losses. The analysis of policy options indicates that while the importation of chillies can stabilise prices in the short term, it has a negative impact on the income of those involved in the value chain. More sustainable solutions to mitigate price volatility include the implementation of year-round planting and the enhancement of market governance. These strategies present potential avenues for achieving a more stable and equitable chilli market, offering valuable insights for broader agricultural value chain stability.

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将系统动力学与价值链分析相结合,解决印度尼西亚辣椒价值链中的价格波动问题
在农业价值链中观察到的价格波动是一个重大的社会经济挑战,尤其是对小农而言。由于农业价值链的动态性和相互关联性,这些价值链中的价格波动问题十分复杂。本研究的目标是将系统动力学与价值链分析相结合,以解决印度尼西亚辣椒价值链中的价格波动问题。为了确保利益相关者的参与并提高建议解决方案的稳健性,将采用参与式方法。利用系统动力学可以对辣椒价值链的内在动态进行定量模拟,从而便于对政策干预进行事前和事后评估。通过与利益相关者合作,开发、测试和验证了一个在省级和国家级运行的系统动力学模型。研究结果表明,该模型准确地再现了在印度尼西亚辣椒市场上观察到的价格波动。造成这种波动的关键因素是季节性生产、混乱的市场管理和收获后的高损失。对政策选择的分析表明,虽然进口辣椒可以在短期内稳定价格,但会对价值链中相关人员的收入产生负面影响。减缓价格波动的更可持续的解决方案包括实施全年种植和加强市场管理。这些战略为实现更加稳定和公平的辣椒市场提供了潜在的途径,为更广泛的农业价值链稳定提供了宝贵的见解。
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来源期刊
Food Policy
Food Policy 管理科学-农业经济与政策
CiteScore
11.40
自引率
4.60%
发文量
128
审稿时长
62 days
期刊介绍: Food Policy is a multidisciplinary journal publishing original research and novel evidence on issues in the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of policies for the food sector in developing, transition, and advanced economies. Our main focus is on the economic and social aspect of food policy, and we prioritize empirical studies informing international food policy debates. Provided that articles make a clear and explicit contribution to food policy debates of international interest, we consider papers from any of the social sciences. Papers from other disciplines (e.g., law) will be considered only if they provide a key policy contribution, and are written in a style which is accessible to a social science readership.
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