Potential ecological risk assessment based on loss of ecosystem services due to land use and land cover change: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

IF 4 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY Applied Geography Pub Date : 2024-08-29 DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103389
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Abstract

Ecosystem services (ESs) bridge the gap between human wellbeing and ecosystem processes. Land use and land cover change (LUCC) affect ecosystem services by altering the structure and function of ecosystems. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), one of the most developed urban agglomerations in China, is subject to intense LUCC that affects ESs while increasing the regional ecological risk (ER). Therefore, to achieve the coordinated development of socioeconomic and ecological quality, there is an urgent need to establish a regional ecological risk assessment (ERA). ESs were introduced into the ERA to clarify their ecological significance and to compensate for the deficiencies of the traditional ERA. In this study, the ERA utilizes key ESs as endpoints to assess potential ER through a new framework by multiplying the probability of LUCC by the resultant loss of key ESs. We found that cultivated land was the most dominant outflow type and built-up land was the predominant inflow type. From 2020 to 2030, there is a greater possibility of changes in cultivated land, forest, grassland, and built-up land as well as in relatively stable water bodies and unused land. Overall, ESs show a positive trend. The overall potential ER was relatively minimal, with a significant northwestern spatially concentrated characteristic of high values. This study helps understand the potential development process of ERs and provides a scientific basis for risk management.

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基于土地利用和土地覆被变化导致的生态系统服务损失的潜在生态风险评估:京津冀地区案例研究
生态系统服务 (ES) 是人类福祉与生态系统过程之间的桥梁。土地利用和土地覆被变化(LUCC)通过改变生态系统的结构和功能来影响生态系统服务。京津冀(BTH)是中国最发达的城市群之一,其强烈的土地利用和土地覆被变化(LUCC)在影响生态系统服务的同时也增加了区域生态风险(ER)。因此,为实现社会经济与生态质量的协调发展,迫切需要建立区域生态风险评估(ERA)。为明确 ESs 的生态意义,弥补传统 ERA 的不足,将 ESs 引入 ERA。在本研究中,ERA 利用关键生态系统作为终点,通过一个新的框架,将 LUCC 的概率乘以由此导致的关键生态系统的损失,来评估潜在的 ER。我们发现,耕地是最主要的流出类型,而建筑用地则是最主要的流入类型。从 2020 年到 2030 年,耕地、森林、草地、建筑用地以及相对稳定的水体和未利用土地发生变化的可能性更大。总体而言,ESs 呈现出积极的趋势。总体潜在的 ER 值相对较小,具有明显的西北部空间集中的高值特征。这项研究有助于了解ER的潜在发展过程,为风险管理提供科学依据。
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来源期刊
Applied Geography
Applied Geography GEOGRAPHY-
CiteScore
8.00
自引率
2.00%
发文量
134
期刊介绍: Applied Geography is a journal devoted to the publication of research which utilizes geographic approaches (human, physical, nature-society and GIScience) to resolve human problems that have a spatial dimension. These problems may be related to the assessment, management and allocation of the world physical and/or human resources. The underlying rationale of the journal is that only through a clear understanding of the relevant societal, physical, and coupled natural-humans systems can we resolve such problems. Papers are invited on any theme involving the application of geographical theory and methodology in the resolution of human problems.
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