Applied Geography最新文献

Route repetition and activity spaces: spatial networks, routes, stops and routines 路线重复和活动空间：空间网络、路线、站点和惯例

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103957

Ying Lu , Lihong Zhang , Rebecca Wickes , Chloe Keel , Danielle Reynald , Christopher Browning , Jonathan Corcoran

Activity spaces are a longstanding geographic concept used to describe the mobility patterns of an individual. The proliferation of disaggregate space-time data now enables a sophisticated network-orientated approach to measuring and visualising these spaces. The current study leverages individual Global Positioning System trajectories from 365 participants over a seven-day period to introduce ‘route repetition’, a novel network-based metric quantifying habitual path selection within street networks. Using piecewise structural equation modelling with spatial controls, we demonstrate two key findings: higher route repetition is linked to lower crime rates in neighbourhoods (β = −0.24, p < 0.01); higher route repetition is also associated with longer movement duration (i.e., people who repeat routes more tend to spend more time traveling for a trip) (β = 0.24, p < 0.01). The network-centric conceptualisation of activity spaces advances beyond traditional elliptical and kernel density approaches by capturing the topological constraints of urban infrastructure. Our route repetition measure offers methodological innovation allied with substantive insight into routine spatial behaviour, providing a nuanced framework for analysing neighbourhood mobility patterns and their complex relationships with urban environmental factors such as crime exposure, land use diversity, socio-demographic composition and street network configuration.

活动空间是一个历史悠久的地理概念，用于描述个人的活动模式。分解时空数据的激增现在使得一种复杂的面向网络的方法能够测量和可视化这些空间。目前的研究利用365名参与者在7天内的全球定位系统轨迹来引入“路线重复”，这是一种新的基于网络的量化街道网络中习惯性路径选择的指标。使用空间控制的分段结构方程模型，我们展示了两个关键发现：较高的路线重复与社区中较低的犯罪率有关（β = - 0.24, p < 0.01）；更高的路线重复也与更长的运动时间有关（即，重复路线的人往往在一次旅行中花费更多的时间）（β = 0.24, p < 0.01）。通过捕捉城市基础设施的拓扑约束，以网络为中心的活动空间概念超越了传统的椭圆和核密度方法。我们的路线重复测量提供了方法上的创新，并结合了对日常空间行为的实质性洞察，为分析社区流动模式及其与城市环境因素（如犯罪暴露、土地使用多样性、社会人口构成和街道网络配置）的复杂关系提供了一个细致入微的框架。

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引用次数: 0

Depopulation and healthcare service decline: Spatial evidence of a vicious cycle in South Korea 人口减少和医疗服务下降：韩国恶性循环的空间证据

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103951

Jongpyo Lee , Heeyeun Yoon

Depopulation has become a pressing structural issue in many countries, with South Korea experiencing one of the most rapid national decreases in recent years. Depopulation and medical service provision are closely interconnected; however, existing studies have predominantly examined their relationship in a unidirectional manner, overlooking the dynamic interplay between the two. Using spatial analysis, Granger causality tests, and spatial panel modeling, this study demonstrates the spatiotemporal relationship between population decline and healthcare contraction. Our analysis reveals that regions experiencing population loss tend to have fewer medical institutions, indicating significant spatial dependence. We also find that primary medical services play a key role in preventing population decline, advanced medical services, meanwhile, tend to follow rather than prevent population trends, deepening disparities in underserved regions. These sequential relationships suggest the potential for a self-reinforcing cycle of regional decline. Our findings highlight the urgent need for integrated policies that sustain essential healthcare in underserved regions. Such strategies should combine short-term interventions with long-term planning to mitigate the adverse effects of depopulation on healthcare infrastructure and local resilience.

在许多国家，人口减少已经成为一个紧迫的结构性问题，韩国是近年来人口减少最快的国家之一。人口减少与提供医疗服务密切相关；然而，现有的研究主要以单向的方式考察了它们之间的关系，忽视了两者之间的动态相互作用。利用空间分析、格兰杰因果检验和空间面板模型，研究了人口下降与医疗收缩之间的时空关系。我们的分析表明，经历人口流失的地区往往拥有较少的医疗机构，这表明了显著的空间依赖性。我们还发现，初级医疗服务在预防人口下降方面发挥了关键作用，同时，高级医疗服务倾向于跟随而不是预防人口趋势，从而加深了服务不足地区的差距。这些顺序关系表明，区域衰退可能会形成一个自我强化的循环。我们的研究结果强调，迫切需要制定综合政策，在服务不足的地区维持基本医疗保健。此类战略应将短期干预措施与长期规划相结合，以减轻人口减少对保健基础设施和地方复原力的不利影响。

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引用次数: 0

Socio-spatial impacts of wind energy in Brazil's Northeast: Land grabbing, green grabbing, and the role of leasing contracts and legal gaps 巴西东北部风能的社会空间影响：土地掠夺、绿色掠夺、租赁合同和法律空白的作用

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103949

Mariana Traldi

This article examines how the expansion of wind energy in Brazil reshapes land relations and reproduces socio-territorial inequalities, offering new insights into debates on land grabbing, energy transitions, and political ecology. It focuses on lease contracts as central mechanisms of “green grabbing,” through which companies secure long-term control over land and airspace without ownership. The analysis also highlights the crucial role of state-backed financing in de-risking private investments and enabling the expansion of wind projects. The findings show that rural communities in Brazil's semi-arid Northeast are only marginally integrated into the global renewable energy chain. While maintaining formal landownership, they lose decision-making power and capture only a small fraction of revenues. Much of the generated energy and associated profits are appropriated by foreign corporations and channeled to pension and investment funds abroad. These dynamics fuel conflicts and have given rise to resistance movements that challenge the unequal distribution of benefits and harms. Looking ahead, the push for large-scale green hydrogen production is likely to intensify these dynamics. Although still in its early stages, this emerging sector is concentrated in the Northeast, where additional wind farms will be required to supply hydrogen largely destined for export. Such developments risk amplifying land pressures, deepening territorial asymmetries, and reinforcing Brazil's dependent role within global energy transitions. The study demonstrates how a low-carbon transition, when driven by external interests, can exacerbate inequality and dispossession rather than delivering social and environmental justice.

本文研究了巴西风能的扩张如何重塑土地关系并再现社会-领土不平等，为关于土地掠夺、能源转型和政治生态的辩论提供了新的见解。它将租赁合同作为“绿色掠夺”的核心机制，通过租赁合同，公司可以在没有所有权的情况下获得对土地和空域的长期控制。该分析还强调了国家支持的融资在降低私人投资风险和扩大风电项目方面的关键作用。研究结果表明，巴西东北部半干旱地区的农村社区仅在很小程度上融入了全球可再生能源链。虽然保留了正式的土地所有权，但他们失去了决策权，只能获得一小部分收入。所产生的能源和相关利润大部分被外国公司占有，并流入国外的养老基金和投资基金。这些动态加剧了冲突，并引发了抵抗运动，挑战利益和损害的不平等分配。展望未来，大规模绿色氢生产的推动可能会加剧这些动态。尽管仍处于早期阶段，但这一新兴行业主要集中在东北部，那里将需要额外的风力发电场来供应主要用于出口的氢气。这样的发展可能会放大土地压力，加深领土不对称，并加强巴西在全球能源转型中的依赖作用。该研究表明，在外部利益的驱动下，低碳转型如何加剧不平等和剥夺，而不是实现社会和环境正义。

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引用次数: 0

Nonlinear-relationship between urban environment and commuting distance considering social and job disparities 考虑社会和工作差异的城市环境与通勤距离的非线性关系

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103967

Xingang Zhou , Zhouye Zhao , Weiye Xiao

Optimizing the built environment to enhance commuting efficiency is promising to alleviate traffic pressure in large cities. However, commuting behavior arises from complex interactions among social and environmental factors, leading to non-linear relationships between commuting distance and its determinants. Using cellphone location-based service data from Shanghai, this study examines the determinants of commuting distance at trip level and the spatial patterns of long-distance commuting at cell level, with particular attention to social disparities. The random forest model combined with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis are employed to uncover these non-linear effects and interactions. Results show that housing price is the dominating determinant of commuting distance. SHAP analysis further reveals that the interplay between socioeconomic status and urban environment factors drives the observed non-linear impacts on commuting distance. High-skill and high-income people tend to have short commuting trips when they live in central areas or work in outer urban area. Analysis of long-distance commuting patterns indicates that urban structure factors, such as distance to urban center and housing price, exert stronger influence than built environment characteristics. Overall, the findings provide a nuanced understanding of the complex mechanisms underlying commuting behavior and can provide practical implications to sustainable spatial planning.

优化建筑环境以提高通勤效率有望缓解大城市的交通压力。然而，通勤行为是社会和环境因素复杂相互作用的结果，导致通勤距离与其决定因素之间存在非线性关系。本研究利用上海市的手机定位服务数据，分析了出行层面的通勤距离决定因素和小区层面的通勤空间格局，并特别关注了社会差异。随机森林模型结合SHapley加性解释（SHAP）分析揭示了这些非线性效应和相互作用。结果表明，房价是影响通勤距离的主要决定因素。SHAP分析进一步揭示了社会经济地位和城市环境因素之间的相互作用驱动了所观察到的通勤距离的非线性影响。高技能和高收入人群居住在市中心或在郊区工作时，通勤时间往往较短。长途通勤模式分析表明，城市结构因素（如离市中心的距离和房价）的影响强于建成环境特征。总的来说，这些发现提供了对通勤行为背后复杂机制的细致理解，并可以为可持续空间规划提供实际意义。

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引用次数: 0

Intensive population exposure in urban waterlogging-prone areas: From the perspective of spatial continuum of the urban environmental system 城市内涝易发区人口密集暴露：基于城市环境系统空间连续体的视角

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103953

Tian Hu , Jiansheng Wu , Yingxiang Sun

Urban waterlogging is increasingly recognized as a systemic risk rooted in the degradation of urban environmental systems. While existing research has predominantly focused on inundation probability and depth, the systemic vulnerability and spatial patterns underlying waterlogging dynamics remain poorly understood. Taking Shenzhen as a case, this research develops a three-tiered spatial framework that links historical inundation spots to slow-changing biophysical processes. The waterlogging-prone areas and spatial continuums are further delineated to explore the spatial-demographic exposure patterns. Results show that portions of the urban environmental system are undergoing unsustainable processes, evidenced by significant decline in key biophysical variables. These variables exhibit threshold-governed behavior, declining sharply within approximately 1.4 km radius of inundation points before stabilizing asymptotically farther away. Within the delineated waterlogging-prone areas, 67 high-risk spatial continuums were mapped. Although these continuums contain 20-21 % of the total population, they experienced a disproportionate 65.9 % surge in population density between 2006 and 2016. The findings indicate that the urban environmental system has entered a vulnerable, waterlogging-prone state in certain regions. Given the spatial overlap of high-risk waterlogging with dense population clusters, targeted adaptation strategies and regulatory interventions are urgently needed.

城市内涝日益被认为是一种植根于城市环境系统退化的系统性风险。虽然现有的研究主要集中在淹没概率和深度上，但对内涝动态的系统脆弱性和空间格局仍然知之甚少。本研究以深圳为例，构建了一个将历史淹没点与缓慢变化的生物物理过程联系起来的三层空间框架。进一步圈定内涝易发区域和空间连续体，探索空间人口暴露模式。结果表明，部分城市环境系统正在经历不可持续的过程，主要表现为关键生物物理变量的显著下降。这些变量表现出阈值控制行为，在淹没点半径约1.4公里内急剧下降，然后逐渐稳定。在划定的内涝易发区，绘制了67个高风险空间连续体。尽管这些连续体的人口占总人口的20- 21%，但在2006年至2016年期间，它们的人口密度激增了65.9%。研究结果表明，在某些地区，城市环境系统已经进入一个脆弱的、容易发生内涝的状态。鉴于高风险内涝与密集人口聚集的空间重叠，迫切需要有针对性的适应策略和监管干预措施。

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引用次数: 0

Multidimensional relatedness and regional job diversification in China: Evidence from industry-occupation combinations 多维关联与中国区域工作多样化：来自产业-职业组合的证据

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103966

Jinbo Yan , Rongjun Ao , Jing Chen

Few existing studies have focused on the impact of multidimensional relatedness and its potential complementarity on regional job diversification, especially the regional heterogeneity of these impacts. Based on the population censuses and sampling surveys as well as the enterprise registration data of 264 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2015, this study constructs industrial, occupational, and job relatedness networks, and explores the spatiotemporal dynamics and mechanisms of jobs entry in Chinese cities from the perspective of multidimensional relatedness. The empirical results show that regions are more likely to diversify new jobs that are closely related to the existing job structure as well as to industrial and occupational structures. Industry relatedness and occupation relatedness are complementary channels for jobs entry, and this complementary effect is more important for the entry of complex jobs. The impact of multidimensional relatedness on jobs entry varies significantly by labor market size. Job relatedness has the strongest effect in small cities, whereas industry and occupation relatedness as well as their complementarity are stronger in large cities. For high-complexity jobs entry, occupation relatedness outweighs industry relatedness in large and medium cities, while small cities contrast this and rely heavily on the complementary effect of these two types of relatedness.

现有研究很少关注多维相关性及其潜在互补性对区域工作多样化的影响，特别是这些影响的区域异质性。本研究基于2000 - 2015年中国264个城市的人口普查、抽样调查和企业登记数据，构建产业、职业和工作关联网络，从多维关联的角度探讨中国城市工作进入的时空动态和机制。实证结果表明，与现有岗位结构、产业结构和职业结构密切相关的新岗位更有可能多样化。行业相关性和职业相关性是岗位进入的互补渠道，这种互补效应对于复杂岗位的进入更为重要。多维相关性对就业进入的影响因劳动力市场规模而异。工作关联度在小城市的效应最强，而产业关联度和职业关联度及其互补性在大城市的效应更强。对于高复杂性的工作进入，大中城市的职业关联度大于行业关联度，而小城市则相反，严重依赖这两种关联度的互补效应。

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引用次数: 0

Unraveling road-induced ecological disturbances through a cross-scale framework: Evidence from Wuhan, China 通过跨尺度框架揭示道路引起的生态干扰：来自中国武汉的证据

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103971

Jiayi Luo , Jinhai Li , Xuesong Kong , Feifei Lin

Although the expansion of urban road infrastructure is a key driver of economic growth, it imposes severe ecological disturbances, such as landscape fragmentation, impediments to species migration, and habitat degradation. Balancing road network development with ecological network conservation under urban socioeconomic demands poses a key challenge for sustainable urbanization. This study develops a cross-scale evaluation framework to assess road-network-induced ecological disturbances at both regional and local levels. Using Wuhan in China as a case study, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics between road network and ecological network from 2014 to 2022 through three dimensions: road network expansion patterns, ecological network stability assessment, and cross-scale association. At the regional scale, road network expansion reduced ecological network closure degree by 12.36%, connectivity degree by 8.71%, and connectivity rate by 8.42%, thereby undermining overall ecosystem stability. Ecological disturbance intensified notably, characterized by a 60% increase in overall intensity and a 65.38% expansion in the spatial extent of high-disturbance areas. Our analysis reveals that localized road stress systematically undermines regional-scale ecological connectivity. Based on these findings, we propose a multi-tiered ecological optimization path to support ecological conservation planning in Wuhan. This study advances the understanding of road-ecological network interactions and offers policy-relevant insights for sustainable spatial planning in rapidly urbanizing regions.

尽管城市道路基础设施的扩张是经济增长的关键驱动力，但它也造成了严重的生态干扰，如景观破碎化、物种迁移障碍和栖息地退化。平衡城市社会经济需求下的道路网络发展与生态网络保护是实现可持续城市化的关键挑战。本研究开发了一个跨尺度的评估框架，以评估区域和地方两级道路网络引起的生态干扰。以武汉市为例，从路网扩展格局、生态网络稳定性评价和跨尺度关联三个维度分析了2014 - 2022年武汉市道路网络与生态网络的时空动态关系。在区域尺度上，路网扩张使生态网络封闭度降低12.36%，连通性降低8.71%，连通性降低8.42%，破坏了生态系统的整体稳定性。生态干扰明显加剧，总体强度增加60%，高干扰区空间范围扩大65.38%。我们的分析表明，局部道路压力系统性地破坏了区域尺度的生态连通性。在此基础上，提出了支持武汉市生态保护规划的多层次生态优化路径。该研究促进了对道路-生态网络相互作用的理解，并为快速城市化地区的可持续空间规划提供了政策相关见解。

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引用次数: 0

Walkability and urban foraging: Spatial modeling of wild food access in Detroit, Michigan 步行和城市觅食：密歇根州底特律野生食物获取的空间模型

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103955

Greg Rybarczyk , Richard R. Shaker , Melissa Starking

Urban food insecurity affects millions globally, with alternative food systems becoming increasingly important as traditional retail access declines in post-industrial cities. This study examined relationships between neighborhood walkability and urban foraging patterns in Detroit, Michigan, to understand how transportation infrastructure influences access to wild food resources. We developed an Urban Foraging Activity index from citizen science data across Census Block Groups and employed exploratory spatial data analysis and conditional autoregressive modeling to assess relationships between foraging patterns and transportation, demographic, and built environment variables while controlling for spatial dependencies. Conditional autoregressive models explained up to 69% of variation in foraging patterns, with walkability infrastructure emerging as the strongest consistent predictor across all spatial models. We identified a bimodal socioeconomic distribution where both high-wage workers and zero-car households showed strong positive associations with foraging activity, while neighborhood density variables demonstrated negative relationships. Significant spatial clustering indicated that foraging opportunities concentrate geographically in neighborhoods with specific context and composition characteristics rather than being randomly distributed. These findings demonstrate that walkability improvements represent an underrecognized strategy for simultaneously addressing transportation equity and food system resilience, providing quantitative evidence that pedestrianoriented infrastructure investments can enhance access to healthy food resources incities confronting persistent food security challenges.

城市粮食不安全影响着全球数百万人，随着后工业化城市传统零售渠道的减少，替代粮食系统变得越来越重要。本研究考察了密歇根州底特律的社区步行性与城市觅食模式之间的关系，以了解交通基础设施如何影响获取野生食物资源。在控制空间依赖的情况下，研究人员从人口普查街区的公民科学数据中开发了一个城市觅食活动指数，并采用探索性空间数据分析和条件自回归模型来评估觅食模式与交通、人口和建筑环境变量之间的关系。条件自回归模型解释了高达69%的觅食模式变化，可步行性基础设施成为所有空间模型中最强的一致预测因子。我们发现了一个双峰社会经济分布，其中高工资工人和无车家庭与觅食活动都表现出强烈的正相关，而社区密度变量则表现出负相关。显著的空间聚类表明，觅食机会在地理上集中在具有特定背景和组成特征的社区，而不是随机分布的。这些研究结果表明，改善步行性是同时解决交通公平和粮食系统弹性的一种未被充分认识的策略，提供了定量证据，表明以步行为导向的基础设施投资可以在面临持续粮食安全挑战的城市中增加获得健康食物资源的机会。

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引用次数: 0

Urban green space and crime across land use types and socio-racial contexts: Evidence from Washington, D.C. 城市绿地和犯罪在土地使用类型和社会种族背景下：来自华盛顿特区的证据

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103972

Zengli Wang , Xin Wang , Jingjing Li , Zhonghao Zhang , Lumeng Liu

Urban green space is widely considered to contribute to crime prevention, yet empirical results remain mixed and context-dependent. To unravel these complexities, this study classified urban green space as canopy and non-canopy vegetation and evaluated their effects on violent and property crime rates across diverse land use patterns and socio-racial contexts in 555 census block groups in Washington, D.C. Using spatially informed negative binomial regression models, we found that tree canopy was generally associated with lower violent and property crime rates, while non-canopy vegetation was only associated with reduced property crime. Critically, these associations varied across land use contexts: canopy cover was associated with higher violent crime in commercial and recreational areas but lower levels in residential and mixed areas; non-canopy vegetation was linked to reduced property crime in religious and institutional areas, yet correlated with increased violent crime in mixed-use areas. Triple-interaction models further revealed that in commercial-recreational areas with higher proportions of African American residents, canopy cover was associated with elevated violent crime rates, highlighting the compounded effects of social and environmental conditions. Overall, these findings underscore the importance of context-specific greening strategies. Urban greening initiatives should prioritize canopy expansion in residential and mixed areas, promote non-canopy vegetation in institutional and religious areas, and favor open and permeable vegetation forms in commercial and recreational spaces to maintain visibility. In socially vulnerable communities, however, greening interventions should integrate safety-oriented design, community participation, and visibility enhancement to ensure equitable and sustainable outcomes.

城市绿地被广泛认为有助于预防犯罪，但实证结果仍然是混合的，并且依赖于环境。为了揭示这些复杂性，本研究将城市绿地分为冠层和非冠层植被，并评估了它们对华盛顿特区555个人口普查街区群体中不同土地利用模式和社会种族背景下暴力和财产犯罪率的影响。使用空间信息负二项回归模型，我们发现树冠通常与较低的暴力和财产犯罪率有关。而非冠层植被只与减少财产犯罪有关。至关重要的是，这些关联在不同的土地使用背景下有所不同：在商业和娱乐地区，冠层覆盖与较高的暴力犯罪有关，但在住宅和混合地区，这一水平较低；无冠层植被与宗教和机构区域的财产犯罪减少有关，但与混合用途区域的暴力犯罪增加有关。三重互动模型进一步揭示，在非裔美国居民比例较高的商业休闲区，林冠覆盖与暴力犯罪率升高有关，突出了社会和环境条件的复合影响。总的来说，这些发现强调了因地制宜的绿化策略的重要性。城市绿化措施应优先考虑住区和混合区冠层的扩展，促进机构和宗教区域的非冠层植被，并在商业和娱乐空间中支持开放和可渗透的植被形式，以保持可见性。然而，在社会弱势社区，绿化干预措施应结合以安全为导向的设计、社区参与和可见度的提高，以确保公平和可持续的结果。

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引用次数: 0

Regional energy security: Case study of path dependence and adoption readiness in the Southeastern United States 区域能源安全：美国东南部路径依赖和采用准备的案例研究

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography

Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-03-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2026.103948

Marilyn A. Brown , Niraj K. Palsule , Peter E. Thornton , David L. McCollum

Regions of the United States (U.S.) are challenged by an array of energy security risks. Complementary constructs of path dependence and adoption readiness, combined with rich data analytics are deployed to investigate four energy conundrums emerging from a participatory planning initiative in the U.S. Southeast (SE). The theory of path dependence explains (1) how low electricity rates and high reserve margins have made the SE an attractive target for industrial and data center investments that now stresses energy accessibility and (2) how high energy burdens have resulted from long-lived inefficient housing built when regional energy prices were low and poverty was high, creating high and often unaffordable energy bills. The concept of adoption readiness explains (3) how the region's relatively weak energy security policies have resulted in low levels of adoption of clean-tech products and (4) how its limited experience with unconventional market mechanisms has contributed to its low level of adoption of forest carbon offsets. We offer policy recommendations that could strengthen energy security in the SE by reducing historic path dependencies and fostering adoption readiness. Recommended policies include strengthening the SE electricity market, creating clean portfolio standards and zero-emission vehicle mandates, and expanding carbon offset markets to include equity-qualified energy-efficient housing. The result is arguably the first participatory, data-driven, model-informed energy security analysis of a multi-state U.S. region.

美国各地区面临着一系列能源安全风险的挑战。路径依赖和采用准备的互补结构，结合丰富的数据分析，用于调查美国东南部（SE）参与式规划倡议中出现的四个能源难题。路径依赖理论解释了(1)低电价和高储备边际如何使东南沿海成为工业和数据中心投资的一个有吸引力的目标，现在强调能源可及性；(2)在区域能源价格低、贫困高的情况下建造的长寿命低效住房如何造成高能源负担，从而产生高昂且往往负担不起的能源账单。采用准备度的概念解释了(3)该地区相对薄弱的能源安全政策如何导致清洁技术产品的低采用水平；(4)该地区在非常规市场机制方面的有限经验如何导致其对森林碳抵消的低采用水平。我们提出了政策建议，可以通过减少历史路径依赖和促进采用准备来加强东南地区的能源安全。建议的政策包括加强东南电力市场，制定清洁投资组合标准和零排放车辆指令，以及扩大碳抵消市场，将符合股权要求的节能住房纳入其中。结果可以说是第一个参与式的、数据驱动的、基于模型的美国多州地区能源安全分析。

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引用次数: 0