Challenging unverified assumptions in causal claims: Do gas stoves increase risk of pediatric asthma?

Abstract

The use of unverified models for risk estimates and policy recommendations can be highly misleading, as their predictions may not reflect real-world health impacts. For example, a recent article states that NO₂ from gas stoves “likely causes ∼50,000 cases of current pediatric asthma from long-term NO₂ exposure alone” annually in the United States. This explicitly causal claim, which is contrary to several methodology and review articles published in this journal, among others, reflects both (a) An unverified modeling assumption that pediatric asthma burden is approximately proportional to NO₂; and (b) An unverified causal assumption that the assumed proportionality between exposure and response is causal. The article is devoid of any causal analysis showing that these assumptions are likely to be true. It does not show that reducing NO₂ exposure from gas stoves would reduce pediatric asthma risk. Its key references report no significant associations – let alone causation – between NO₂ and pediatric asthma. Thus, the underlying data suggests that the number of pediatric asthma cases caused by gas stoves in the United States is indistinguishable from zero. This highlights the need to rigorously validate modeling assumptions and causal claims in public health risk assessments to ensure scientifically sound foundations for policy decisions.