Preoperative Modified Frailty Index-11 versus EuroSCORE II in Predicting Postoperative Mortality and Complications in Elderly Patients Who Underwent Elective Open Cardiac Surgery: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Objective

To compare sensitivity, specificity, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and area under the curve (AUC) values using the modified Frailty Index 11 (mFI-11), EuroSCORE II, and combined mFI-11 and EuroSCORE II to predict in-hospital mortality and composite morbidities.

Design

Retrospective cohort study

Setting

Songklanagarind Hospital, a tertiary care center in southern Thailand.

Participants

Elderly patients age ≥60 years who underwent elective open-heart surgical procedures on a pump between January 2017 and December 2022 were included.

Interventions

ROC curves were constructed to evaluate the discriminatory power of EuroSCORE II and mFI-11 for predicting in-hospital mortality and postoperative complications.

Measurements and Main Results

The actual in-hospital mortality was 2.5% for all patients. The discriminative accuracy of mFI-11, EuroSCORE II, and combined mFI-11 with EuroSCORE II for predicting in-hospital mortality was good, with respective AUC values of 0.733 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.6157-0.8499), 0.793 (95% CI, 0.6826-0.9026), and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.6686-0.893). The AUC of mFI-11 for predicting postoperative cardiac, respiratory, neurologic, and renal complications was 0.558 (95% CI, 0.5101-0.6063), 0.606 (95% CI, 0.5542-0.6581), 0.543 (95% CI, 0.4533-0.6337), and 0.652 (95% CI, 0.5859-0.7179), respectively, and that of EuroSCORE II was 0.553 (95% CI, 0.5038-0.6013), 0.631 (95% CI, 0.578-0.6836), 0.619 (95% CI, 0.5306-0.7076), and 0.702 (95% CI, 0.6378-0.7657), respectively.

Conclusions

The mFI-11 and EuroSCORE II demonstrated good discrimination in ROC analysis, with EuroSCORE II showing superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality in elderly elective cardiac surgery patients. However, neither score independently predicted mortality in multiple logistic regression, nor did combining them enhance predictive power significantly. Furthermore, both scores were less effective in predicting postoperative complications.