Tropical and Antarctic sea ice impacts of observed Southern Ocean warming and cooling trends since 1949

IF 8.5 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2024-09-02 DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00735-w

Xiyue Zhang, Clara Deser

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Abstract

Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed from approximately 1949–1978 and cooled slightly from 1979–2013. We compare the remote impacts of these SO trends using historical coupled model experiments in which the model’s SO SST anomalies are nudged to observations. Compared to the control (no nudging) ensemble, the nudged ensemble shows enhanced SST warming in the tropical southeast Pacific and Atlantic, and greater Antarctic sea ice loss, during the SO warming period: analogous to the impacts of SO cooling but of opposite sign. The SO-driven response in the tropical Pacific (Atlantic) is statistically significant when considering the trend difference between the two periods, and accounts for 34% (59%) of the observed non-radiatively forced trend. Surface heat budget analysis indicates wind-evaporation-SST feedback dominates over shortwave cloud feedback in amplifying the SO-driven SST trends in the tropics during the SO warming period, opposite to that for the SO cooling period.

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1949 年以来观测到的南大洋变暖和变冷趋势对热带和南极海冰的影响

南大洋海表温度（SSTs）在大约 1949-1978 年间变暖，1979-2013 年间略微降温。我们利用历史耦合模式实验比较了这些南大洋趋势的远距离影响，在实验中，模式的南大洋海表温度异常与观测数据相吻合。与对照集合（无推移）相比，推移集合显示，在海洋酸化变暖期间，热带东南太平洋和大西洋的海温变暖加剧，南极海冰损失增加：与海洋酸化降温的影响类似，但符号相反。考虑到两个时期的趋势差异，热带太平洋（大西洋）的 SO 驱动响应在统计意义上是显著的，占观测到的非辐射强迫趋势的 34% （59%）。地表热量收支分析表明，风-蒸发-SST 反馈比短波云反馈更能放大 SO 升温期间热带地区 SO 驱动的 SST 趋势，这与 SO 降温期间的趋势相反。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.